Where is BITCOIN headed? Buying the BITCOIN dips for profit



what is going on traders welcome back to the travelling trader happy Wednesday to you looking at the cryptocurrency market cap you see that we're currently at 267 and a half bill we keep going back and forth between 250 280 bill and not really able to get to that 300 billion dollar threshold that we saw when Bitcoin was trading just under $14,000 a few days ago it seems like forever ago but but yeah so looking at some of the gains that that the market has made in the last week in the top alts there aren't many that have had double-digit gains you really only have yes that's up almost 13 percent in the last week and Bitcoin sv which is up 37 and a half percent in the last week other than that I mean you have tezo's that's up 17 percent but in the top 20 those are the only two those are the only three that have really had major gains in the last week other than that the market is actually pretty stagnant so if we take a look at what's going on with Bitcoin at the moment what is going on with Bitcoin at the moment well you see that in the short term we are definitely in bearish territory now I always talk about market confluence confluence is just a fancy word for getting confirmation from a collection of indicators and/or timeframes right so you basically want to in order to make decisions on whether to buy or sell you want to get as many indicators that are telling you the same thing and giving you a buy or sell signal and that's how you get market confluence so in this case we have a double top right initially before we in July 10th before we hit this high of the swing high of 13,000 this did look like a bull flag right you had the rally up we had the peak hitting at 14,000 and you had these trend lines where we did have a bull flag they're both leg was actually confirmed by you know a break to the upside and hitting the resistance once again at around 13,000 but the bull flag quickly turned into a double top thereafter double top as you know is bearish we had a decline found some resistance just shy or some support just shy of the or just below the the 50 moving average and now we are in a bare flag now let me pull up the FIB retracement as well and you'll see that we try to determine levels of support and resistance using a variety of indicators you can go off of the the pattern support and resistance in this case the Bear Flag the moving average can serve as support and resistance you have the FIB levels you have historic levels etc and again you're trying to get a confluence telling you the same thing so we have a number of bearish indicators at the moment and that is if you've been watching you know the channel for the last couple of weeks that's how you that's how we we knew that we were going to see a decline and if you follow the discord where I send out the trade alerts if you want access to the trade alerts link is in the description I lay out exactly how I'm trading Bitcoin based off of these expected drops and these drops were expected and what I'm basically doing is buying at key levels for the long term however there's also a certain section of the portfolio that I'm swing trading based off of these levels so in this case when you have identifiable support and resistance that have been tested and retested multiple times you can essentially buy at support and sell at resistance until that trend is broken remember trend is your friend until the end so until that trend ends you can keep going to the well and taking advantage of these trends and the support and resistance levels and swing trading for profit multiple times so in this case you look at the Bear Flag that that bitcoin is forming and it looks like it is now confirming the the Bear Flag and a confirmation of a bearish pattern is obviously a break to the downside so it looks like we're confirming that and where are we headed well in this case if we do break that if we do break to the downside there is immediate support at this level here which is at around 90 almost 90 100 right this is where Bitcoin bounced off the last time and then you have the support at 8,500 between 85 and 86 hundred which is the point v fib level as well as the hundred day moving average which is the this yellow line here so this right here is a confluence where you know you have the the moving average as well as the the fib level telling you that that this is a key support level right so I personally think that this Bear Flag is going to be confirmed and we will see downside action to at least 90 100 in the short term if not around 8500 and a few things are telling me this well this bounce from 90 100 to the the swing high of around 11,000 100 this was accompanied by declining volume this is something that you never want to see and I don't think traders especially new traders and anti technical analysis crypto youtubers I won't name any names but you know I don't think the the volume is something that people pay attention to as much so when you have an incline in price like this especially a bounce right where it's it's it's flirting with providing a reversal signal you this is something you don't want to see this is a type of divergence right where you have the the essentially the volume making lower highs and the price making higher highs this is called bearish divergence and this is something you do not want to see so that tells me that that momentum is weak right and the if you look at the histogram of the MACD again something that I don't think enough traders look at they just look at the MACD itself but if you look at the histogram of the MACD you'll see that it is making taller bars after contracting a bit right you see that that it was contracting it looked like we were getting shorter bars on the histogram and potentially a reversal to the green but we then after this this bounce with weak volume are now seeing taller red bars on the histogram meaning momentum is weakening so I do think we'll hit at least 90 100 and I did send out trade alerts for this level again access to the trade alerts link is in the description you also get the stock trade alerts for the and traders and above and you also are automatically entered if your diamond and above into the point zero three Bitcoin drawing that I do on the first of every month what is the day now we're nearing that so in seven days I'll be doing eight point zero three Bitcoin drawing so look out for that and sign up if you want to be included in that looking at Bitcoin on the one-week this level obviously we've talked about it to death now but definitely a key level based on historical resistance at this level for around seven weeks coming down from the bull rally that we saw in end of 2017 so it is not out of line that that we see resistance here what are the key levels on the one week well let's pull up a fibber tradesmen because obviously you can just point to you know historical key levels so the the first thing that I would do is look at before we pull up a favorite race mint you'll see that below this we did see some resistance at this level as well and this was at ninety around ninety six hundred will react currently right so if we break through this then then will this level becomes resistance right right now it's support but this level will become resistance and the next potential level that we see is at around around eighty six hundred well guess what you now have confluence right we could have easily just if we didn't know how to identify key levels key historical levels we could have easily just picked one of the moving averages and said hey this is a historical level our sorry this is a potential support level let's just stick with eight thousand because that's where the twenty one week EMA is but no as a technical analyst you're looking for complements so this between this eighty-five hundred and eighty six hundred level is you guessed it the same level that we see here on the point five fib and the hundred day moving average on the daily so there you go that is your confluence that tells you that if we do breach this historical key resistance level which is currently acting as support at around ninety six hundred that the next logical level down you know after on the daily after the ninety one hundred where we bounced off the last time is this 80 between 85 and 86 hundred right and you do have confirmation on multiple time frames now so that should serve as a solid indicator that that is a key level now that doesn't mean that it ever you know everything that we see on the charts is a certainty but you have two choices would you rather enter the market willy-nilly at random and just FOMO into everything that's climbing or would you rather base your trades off of analysis and probable moves not certain moves but probable moves right which one do you think has a better chance of succeeding which one do you think has a better chance of making your portfolio profit I don't need to tell you because you already know so if we pull up the FIB retracement on the one-week you'll see if we try to get a confluence of levels here you'll see that this level that I talked about between eighty-five hundred and eighty-six hundred is also the point five on the weekly so there you have it this is a key level here if we breach 90 100 this is the the level that I will definitely be looking to buy back at one more thing I wanted to point out if you look at the monthly right so let me just remove all these drawing tools real quick but if you look at the monthly it's not you know it I think that people if you if you just question or query you know a bunch of crypto enthusiasts or crypto youtubers and you say you know do you think that that we've been rather bullish or bearish lately because the recent sentiment because of recency bias the recent sentiment is that we've been we've been bearish right but if you actually look at the monthly we've had five green months in a row this is the first red month right five months in a row that does not typically happen if you look at bit stems chart which goes all the way back to August 2011 that hasn't happened many times you have you know April 2012 one two three four five six green candles in a row and then November 2012 you have one two three four five six again and then it hasn't happened for a while and then you know back in the the in 2017 the start of the bull rally of one two three four five that's it it's it's happened three times in the past and now this is the fourth so you know rarely do you see a five or six month pattern not end or not have a red candle succeeding it so it's it's only expected that we see a red month and July for all intents and purposes is looking to be a red month after five green months so keep long-term perspective always look at long term charts when when you are doing your analysis to keep you in line on what is what is realistically going on over the long term so you're not affected by recency bias and revisionist history we had five green months we're still above the twenty one monthly EMA here this white line the MACD still has a positive cross over the histogram of the MACD is still bullish I'm not really fretting this market all right on to the stock side so a few stock trade alerts that were successful over the last few weeks or so the spy as I predicted is now over 300 dollars following the S&P 500's path and I do think that the markets as of July 31st if the Fed cuts the rate will just take off and we'll see another rally to establish crazier all-time highs Microsoft hit an all-time high were now up around 6% on Microsoft FedEx rallying really well today we're up 9% on on FedEx Boeing took a major hit reports 2.9 billion dollar quarterly quarterly loss the worst quarterly lost Boeing ever reported and then that's after obviously the seven the 737 max planes a couple of them being downed killing all passengers on board boeing reported a second quarter loss of 5 dollars and 82 cents a share I did buy Boeing put options a few days ago after not only due to the fact that you know earnings were expected to be missed because of the 737 max issues but this right here is a key resistance level right this stuff is not all doesn't only apply to crypto you'll see here this is a key resistance going all the way back to May 2019 and if you even take it just a step up going all the way back to April 2019 you have this key resistance level so even if you didn't know about the the news or or how the the news of Boeing 737 max would affect earnings because you know earnings come out on this day you could essentially just trade this resistance level so buying put options is almost the same thing as shorting a stock you're betting on the stock to go down and we are now seeing an attempt to move past the 200-day Lee moving average which is this green line towards the 50-day moving average but I'm gonna close out my option for profit because I you know I don't want to get too greedy and a lot of times you'll see the effect of earnings reports quickly overturned so anyway that is it for this video subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already leave a thumbs up if you got anything out of this video it goes a long way leave a comment if you have a comment question agreement disagreement sign up if you want access to the trade alerts again point zero three drawing at the first of every month for the Diamond traders and above so sign up if you want access to that link is in the description and if you need help with your technical analysis if all this looks like Chinese to you or you want to take your game to the next level and you want one-on-one consultation with me I have two spots left for August so sign up to the Centurion level on the patreon link is in the description and we do those one-on-one sessions over videoconference you get three of them a month there one hour each I think it's a great deal and I wish I had a mentor when I started trading almost nineteen years ago I wish I had trading view when I started trading nineteen years ago stay safe out there traders peace

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *