What Just Happened To Bitcoin?


G’day everybody. Just going live. Thought I’d take you through a bit of a walk through Bitcoin by itself. So I’m just waiting for a
couple of people to jump in. It’s definitely been a very interesting 24 or so hours, and just thought it was good
time to talk to that with you. Walk you through exactly what’s going on. So if you just hang in there a little bit, we got a few people on line. I’m gonna be live in
just, well, I’m live now. I’m going to be taking you through a few of the important factors on Bitcoin that I think are worthy
of a bit of a discussion. Of course, as always, if you can hear me, please just type that you can hear me into the comments section. Makes it very, very easy for
me to know that you’re there. Pour myself some water
and we’ll get started, eh? Thank you from Tasmania,
Wendy, where were you? Hobart, I was there just last weekend, it was bloody beautiful, love that, love that part of the world. And while I’m at it, speaking
of parts of the world, I’m gonna be in Adelaide in
the next couple of weeks, then London, we’re taking
this show on the road. London, then Malta. London is in October, Malta after, and then Singapore, then back to Sydney. Should be a good time. All right, cool, let’s get started, then, and we’ll have to press here,
charts of Craig, there we go. Oh, hang on, that’s
what I’ve missed out on, I didn’t put my webcam up,
it had fallen down, and hopefully you can see me. Oops, a little bit blurry. Here I come. Hi! All right, yes, so, I’m just
gonna talk to Bitcoin tonight. Talking to Bitcoin tonight simply because it’s our big market mover. Bitcoin is our mack daddy, so to speak. It is what, well, it’s the
biggest market, it’s what moves the market as a whole,
and we are, we have seen a quite a decent sell-off,
so let’s go through this and I’ll talk you through
what I’m seeing here. Of course, please feel free to like this, share with other people, other
groups, share this around. I’m hoping it’s valuable information. It’s certainly what I’m
seeing in the market and how I’m playing it, so
hopefully it’s of benefit to you. OK, so let’s look at Bitcoin
now on the daily chart. ‘Course, there wasn’t a lot
going on for quite some time. You can, obviously spike
that occurred here. And of course then we started
to see some selling off and it was the last, what
is it, 36 hours or so, that we saw some very decent selling off. Now, a lot of rumors and talk about Bakkt and the fact that it might
have been manipulated, all those sorts of things. Now, from my point of
view, I’ve gotta say, look, manipulation happens in all markets and it’s, I was asked
in my course recently, well, actually at all of
the courses that I’ve run across the country of
Australia and as we move into international lands like
London, Singapore, and Malta, what I do about manipulation. Bottom line is, I need
to explain something. Manipulation occurs across all markets. If you recall, I can’t
remember how many years ago, maybe six years, or
maybe it was (mumbles), I can’t remember exactly. There were some banks that were
manipulating the LIBOR rate, which is the interbank lending rate. We’ve seen that before, and
we’ll definitely see it again. That interbank rate was being manipulated by certain traders in
different parts of the world, and it can be, manipulation
can be something as simple as the traders in the HSBC desk talking to the Barclay’s
desk, and it doesn’t take too much for that to occur. Now, of course, whenever
we look at Bitcoin, it’s got a much lower
market capitalization than all these other markets
that I’ve just spoken to. Yes, manipulation occurs. The question coming back to
it is how do I deal with it? I don’t. My dealing with it is to
just simply ignore it. There’s certain things that you can, I suppose the way to put it would be plan for, and there’s certain
things that you can’t. I can’t plan that tomorrow I’m
gonna wake up and feel great. I can’t plan that I’ll
wake up at all tomorrow. A meteor could come down and crush us all. Now that sounds very far-fetched, but I also can’t plan that
it’s going to be sunny. Yes, we have forecasters that
would suggest that it may be. They get it wrong, too. We live in a world where information is very accessible and very easy to get. Keep in mind that that information is not always the way things turn out. Now, when I look at these markets, I understand that there’s
only one person can make money in these markets and make
decisions in these markets for me, and that’s me. And that’s why I’ve
created the checklist-based trading strategies that I have. It’s not for you, those
strategies have been around for, from my point of view, for the last nine years unchanged. And my mentors before me were
using something very similar. It just so happens that what it does is it helps you to avoid the noise, helps you to be able to
ignore a lot of the hype, or the opposite of hype, which, well, the hype can be bullish and bearish. So I wanted to break down
the charts right now, because the bottom line is this. We need to make our own decisions. Now, whether you’re in
Bitcoin as an investor, or any alt as an investor, a HODLer, or if you’re a trader, it’s very key to understand some key levels, and a lot of the stuff that I teach is about understanding how markets move. So let’s look at it here on the daily. Of course, yesterday, big sell off. Today so far we’re down 1.6%,
we could see further decline. I’m very open to that, but I
wanna give some perspective. Let’s jump to the weekly. Throughout this period,
we had a lower high and a potential higher low. If we broke up through here,
we’re gonna be in an uptrend. If we broke down through
here and then, key, here, we’re gonna be in a downtrend. Now, of course, in the last 24 hours we’ve taken out both of those levels and now we are well below this point here and we are technically
in a weekly downtrend. What does that mean? Well, here is where perspective comes. Let’s look at the lows of the
run and the highs of the run. 340, well, sorry, 326% to the upside. 326% to the upside with
a pullback of what, I think it’s about 42%,
something like that. 41 point, 41%. So if we just rewind a little
bit and go back in time of the 2017 bull run, let’s have a look at some of these pullbacks. We saw of pullback here of 36 or 37. We saw another pullback here
of roughly about the same. We saw another pullback
following from that, and I can tell you the averages, ’cause I’ve told you before. That’s 38 there. The average pullback was 35.25%. The average move from those lows was 207%. So in the scheme of
things, it doesn’t look all that bad, this little pullback. Sure, these were the quick pullbacks, this has been a more prolonged pullback. Well, let’s go again to the monthly and get a little bit more perspective. Let’s have a look through here. Each time we pull back on the monthly, we did get roughly around that 10. And guess what? We’ll be roughly around that 10 now and into a further decline. Can we get to 7000? Absolutely. No dramas at all, I
really think we could do. Puts us back in that
cradle zone on the monthly. Of course, the monthly is going to close is it, 30 days has September,
so I think the monthly will close on Monday or Sunday, I don’t know exactly the
date of that monthly, I don’t know, I just don’t
know when the first is, really. So, again, just to sort of
clear the jitters a little bit and give you some perspective. Before we get into monthly options, first we need a higher low. The more we haven’t got that just yet. This is a pullback,
there’s no doubt about it. And if we were to pull
back into this region and then go on to have a higher high, I can’t see anything more
bullish for our market than that. Now, of course, this
market can turn on a dime. It can turn very, very quickly. So what does it mean? Well, am I panicking? No. Am I selling my Bitcoin? No. Am I looking for shorts? Well, let’s go to that question next. Of course, I wanna have
a place to short from, would be if price was to
pull back into this old level through here, ’cause there’s two tests, two tests equates to (laughs) he’s all over, boys. Well, there’s movin’ in
here as well, Mr. Moon Boy, or Mrs. Moon Boy or wherever you are, or whatever you identify as. A pullback into that region
would be definitely shortable. As it stands at the moment,
let’s jump to the four-hour and have a look at what’s going on. It’s just mayhem. Big falls, big kernels, big volatility, there’s not a great deal in my view for me to be trading, all right. I’m not about just phone eyeing, I’m not interested in just, oh, the market’s falling, so therefore sell. Sure, you can get lucky a few times, but it’s about planning your trade prior, and then executing that plan successfully. And right now for Bitcoin, the only plan that I’ve got, really, is looking at these higher timeframes. If we were to see a pullback
into this 9000 region, if the moving averages caught up, we got into the cradle
zone, then yeah, sure, if a short presents itself,
then, yeah, I’ll take it. Equally, moving down to
lower timeframes here, if you want to trade intra
daily, then that’s up to you. Bitcoin is one of the contracts
that I don’t mind trading on the lower timeframe
simply because it does have that liquidity to avoid certain slippage. I would suggest minimizing
risk on those sorts of trades as they do move hard and fast,
and we do need to be careful. But if you notice here,
beautiful little cradle. Beautiful little cradle
kernel in that zone and a very decent fall from there. Now, whether you profited
from that or not, or whether you move
your stock loss to here, or whether you are not familiar at all with that cradle zone, that’s all on you. Support and resistance, and what does the market
impact pros up down? Look, support and resistance is two tests at a specific level, that’s all it is. Upper is resistance, lower is support. There’s nothing more
complex to it than that in my view and the way that I trade. Everyone trades in a different way, unless of course they
follow the way that I trade. There’s an opportunity there for those that really wanted to,
we did have a lower high, lower low, lower high, boom. There was an opportunity
there to trade short. But right now, guys, it’s
really about keeping your wits. You see, the thing is with
trade is that that consistency, I don’t see that one trade is ever gonna make my career or break my career, and the reason it won’t
make my career is because I see one trade as a singular
trade within a sea of many. I also equally don’t
ever see that one trade will make my career,
it might make my month, it might make my day,
it might make my week, and it might even make my year. But if you want consistency
long term in a market, you’ve gotta be good every time you trade. And right now for me to be trading in this market with
the level of volatility that’s going on right now, I would see that personally
to be not working in the realms of looking at the market as a whole and its direction. Don’t forget that we can see
these, these moves reverse very, very quickly, we’ve
seen it time and time again. Let me take you back not too long ago, back into the 16th of July here. That was a big selloff, 12.91%, actually closed lower than
what we saw overnight. That bounced back very, very quickly, and although it did come back
down and retest those levels, we saw a really good run through here. And throughout this run I did find a nice little two-hour cradle that did in fact have less of a fall. It made my August. That particular trade made my August, and a lot of the people
that trade my style, it also made theirs. In the last week or so,
I have been to Melbourne, Sydney, and Hobart, and
throughout that period Bitcoin was very average, but we did see some wonderful trends occurring through some of these alt markets. And although this Fibonacci
is now defunct or dead, Ethereum and XRP did have
some breakout trades, did have some booster trades,
did have some cradle trades. So things can change
very, very quickly, guys. Don’t panic, don’t worry too much. Dollar cost averaging,
if you’re not a trader, that’s not a bad idea, I’m not
suggesting that you do that, none of this is ever financial advice. It’s just me commentating on what I see. Does volume, question everything,
does volume concern you, Craig, compared to last year? I don’t look at volume in
the sense of comparisons. I look at volume to compare,
well, to look at a chart to see if there is slippage. So one of the things that I teach is trade smooth, flowing,
trending markets. This is a smooth,
flowing, trending market. Now, if I show you something
like my margin page here and jump to here, see
this 15-minute chart, see how there’s all those
little spots and everything? It doesn’t look quite as clean. Well, that is a low-volume traded market. Now, because I like to trade
with leverage or margin, I won’t trade a market like this, because this is a market
that carries more risk, given slippage being taken into account. If I show you the same
chart, 15 minutes on Bitcoin, have a look at the difference. One, two, three. See this, see how it trends
and flows quite nicely? That’s why I don’t mind
trading lower timeframes on contracts such as
Bitcoin against the dollar, Ethereum against dollar,
XRP against dollar, Eth against Bitcoin,
these sorts of things. You see, it’s about
understanding the environment for which we’re trading within. And at the moment we are trading within a very volatile environment. An environment for which
there is a lot of concern. But I’m trying to, or I’m giving you this, giving you this because I think it’s important to get some perspective. The hardest thing to do often
is to sit on your hands. Now, as a trader of
many years’ experience, I can tell you that if you’re any good, you’re probably gonna spend a lot of time warming those hands of yours. Last week was a week for trading. This week thus far is a week, so far, I say so far ’cause it
can change very quickly, for sitting back and watching. Finding those strong trends and trading within those strong trends. So to summarize, what can I see? Well, right now I can see
a very volatile market. If I look at the monthly,
I can see the potential for a move to 7000, and
look, we could go lower. But 7000 wouldn’t concern me. And 7000 wouldn’t concern
me for two reasons. One, it’s back in the
cradle zone on the monthly. And then if it can push to a higher high, then we are looking very good. Now, there’s a fair way to wait for that, but we know how fast this market can move. Let’s not forget how quickly
we were in doom and gloom back through February,
January, and even March, and then how quickly things
reversed and we got very close. I mean, look, if you consider
we were in the 14,000 with all-time highs around 20,000, we weren’t too far off
of those all-time highs. The view, the perspective,
and the understanding of this market from my perspective is really one that this
is just normal volatility. Until we break down through these lows, if we were to do that,
I’m still in the camp of waiting and watching. Now, I’ll still trade within
the timeframes going lower. I’ll still trade trends,
I’ll still trade volatility, I’ll still be involved. But for right now, my hands are warm. I’m focused on not doing a great deal. What happens to your all-time highs? I’m not quite sure,
there’s not enough detail on that question to really
answer there, Scotty. I’d love to see all-time
highs by the end of the year, but I’m not the sort of person
that makes time-based calls. I just trade what the market presents me. Guys, this is a heads-up as well, we are going to be, as I said
earlier, in London in October. One-day course there
teaching the crib to cradle. We’ll be in Malta and then
Singapore following after that by the end of October,
so by the end of November I’ll be exhausted and we’ll
see what the market has. Question, do you trade the bounce, or is that trying to
catch a falling knife? Personally I don’t trade the bounce. For me it is trying to
catch a falling knife. As a trader I just don’t do that at all. I just trade with the trend. I don’t do the high, I don’t do the low, or the top, or the bottom. Only the chunk in the middle. That’s what I’m looking for,
and that’s what I’m here through these runs,
the chunk in the middle I was able to take on the run down, I took a chunk of that as
well, and that’s how I trade. Do I think we’ll hold the 200 daily? Well, as you can see on my charts, I actually don’t use the 200 daily just because it doesn’t factor into any of my decision-making process, and I am a trader that
focuses on objectivity. It really doesn’t make too much of a difference to me what it does. I’ll watch price, I’ll
watch my cradle zone, I’ll stick to what I do and what I’ve done for the last 13 years, 9 years full-time, and we’ll see what goes on. Wendy, you’re absolutely right. Trading the markets is an adventure. Trading the markets without
a plan is a massive risk. I trade the market with a
plan, and I hope you do, too. Guys, get across to TraderCobb.com/global if you’re an international client, otherwise just hit the
website, TraderCobb.com. Have a fantastic time,
I hope this was able to, I guess give some perspective,
give some guidance, and I’m just telling you, I’m neither here nor there on this. It’s too volatile for me
right now to be active. It’s too all over the shop
right now for me to be active. It’s a really good time to consolidate, wait for your opportunities. Those that caught shorts, well done. There was a couple out there. Those that didn’t, your time will come. If we’re gonna go lower, I can
tell you one thing right now, if you’ve got a strategy and
you know how to stick to it, you’ll get opportunities. Have a great night guys, I will speak to you all again very soon. As you can hear, I’m losing
my voice a little bit, so sorry if I sounded a bit funny. Take care, guys. Bye for now.

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