Trading Bitcoin – We Hit $5,100, is the Bull Trap in Place?



hi everybody I am streaming from London I we are doing the second of the day because I was on a plane and woke up two crazy people messages and yeah Wow by the way if anyone missed tones video this morning big so this is gonna be great but it's a second stream so let's get right back into it tone jeez oh my god so yeah so this morning was crazy I was a little frustrated I was stuck at the airport I had to go to the airport at 5:00 a.m. only to find out Maya my flight was canceled uh actually I should have known my flight was canceled apparently there was an email the that if only I would have read I could have you know like like and in that email I actually have to tell them that I accept a new flight that is taking place tomorrow which I didn't do because I didn't see the email which is really frustrating that's why I have to spend like all morning dealing with like Airlines and stuff but I think I got the flight tomorrow morning but unfortunately they don't need to have to wake up at 5:00 a.m. again tomorrow to make it to the airport for my like you know 7:30 a.m. flight it really sucks but like now that I'm back in Turkey I was able to get a haircut and I still haven't gotten much sleep but uh we do have to talk about the market all right to put you on the spot if I did hear you correctly even though I was very very myself on that mute you did say that you only got two hours of sleep because you went out drinking last night and then I had to make it for a 5 a.m. flight so a little bit maybe on your you know why not I have one night in Istanbul what am I supposed to do oh I like I'm anticipating getting to Malta and getting stung and sleeping on the plane right but like that clearly didn't happen so instead of rest but now the night's gonna be interesting I think I'm just gonna go to a Turkish bathhouse right after this nice all right let's check this out especially in light of that apparently some reports especially Bloomberg are saying that this is an April Fool's joke so let's see for all you people that are super excited alright let's head over to screen share I'm gonna put my cell phones be mute everybody I am definitely watching for your questions today yeah so I'm actually uh hold on a second you me once I kind of stop screen share for them I have to change one thing okay all right now let's go back to screen share okay so after I got off that stream there's a couple of things that we did first of all we actually sold the Bitcoin from the ticket sales for understanding Bitcoin we took the exit so that's great I'm not gonna didn't want to take a chance what they could say else thank God you know we just need an extra you know 20% gets us closer to break-even probably still won't be a break-even but definitely the price speculation definitely helped holding out selling that Bitcoin from the ticket sales I also put in an exit for my gbtc position which is now nicely in the money finally it's about freakin time so I am waiting for 20 more minutes to see how gbtc actually opens I'm curious if there's gonna be a run on gbtc shooting the premium up which allows me to exit right now my exit is a little bit too high to actually get out in the pre-market my exit is higher than that so I want to see a little bit of pop I'm gbtc at the open which is gonna be independent I'm not gonna show you guys my retirement account but uh yeah so I'll be looking for that as well and of course I'm looking for SNP oak Tyler's here and of course I am looking for SNP app market open as well so this is gonna be a great video we are gonna keep it to under an hour and and then go from there hey Tyler or a drop right here you didn't color dress underneath oh I think I hear something no well let you know Joan I have my Genesis block hoodie I think is that the one you're wearing here the Hodel we're gonna hold old so excited for Malta oh my god I mean hey tom great show last night I happened to wake up right when you were starting it I loved it oh yeah I know was this morning for me I've gotten the haircut since then and I got maybe an extra hour of sleep so that's good but I yeah other than that has been dealing with means and we we sold the the Bitcoin from ticket sales good or the through the advantage of the prices so that was taken care of am i coming in alive Michael okay yeah you sound good it's gonna be fine cuz Thai of course you can imagine how many people are saying that a hyper wave is dead we're gonna lose and I wanna I want to talk about your tweet as well so this is just talking about gbtc well yeah I put in I put in an exit on gbtc it's a little generous it's somewhat generous above where it's trading up right now in the pre-market I would love to see you know a bit of a run or I don't know is gbtc short able because I don't know because I traded my retirement account so I personally can't short it but do you know if it's short a ball in traditional regular accounts yeah in regular accounts you can short it good so that means there could be a short squeeze within gbtc shooting the premium up once the market opens yeah exactly okay yeah so I have a pretty generous exit setup I'm gonna be watching you I'm not gonna screen shared that like I'm looking at my trading account right now on my screen but you guys are seeing the Bitcoin chart so I'll be keeping an eye on that in 15 minutes along with the S&P is just so much going on let's quickly go through Bitcoin one more time so this chart won't update till 8 p.m. tonight but it will pop right into 5100 and it's actually interesting like somebody pointed this out I think it was as I comment to my video actually so if I go to my own YouTube channel wait how do I or my youtube channel right there if I go to my own YouTube channel and I go back like over a month so somebody pointed to this video oh I have to move this out of the way here hold on show more and then more there we go um so right here there was a video this one and look at the title it's only 22 minutes but uh if you look at the title 15,000 views the price about 40 150 is the $5,100 bullcrap still incoming so that was from February 23rd and then the next day we dumped like two or three hundred dollars but uh but yeah it's interesting that uh oh and someone commented three hours ago the 5100 was hit exactly yeah that was that was an amazing call particularly the 5100 only because there's no obvious resistance there you had drawn that blue line in and we got right up to it but we cut right through the one of the moving averages which I thought it would have a lot of trouble doing so that turned out to be a great call the big question now of course on everybody's mind is what's next and for me what next is is starting back down again and then dropping back below that four thousand 4200 area but what we'll just have to wait and see the momentum right now is to the upside and and we'll just have to see what happens so on that it's happening right at the same time that I've got all of my indicators saying it's time to be a hundred percent back in the US stock market which we did yesterday we told all of our clients all cash should be put into back into the stock market and then the same night which happened to be my birthday yesterday we get this huge move in Bitcoin so it's been a wild 24 hours row away you just had your birthday yeah yesterday April 1st oh oh I didn't know that big 7 0 oh wow congratulations Tyler is 7 d Wow doing great actually for her very impressed ok so let me just begin off the bat right now this coin is in an absolute no trade zone you cannot over the we lose Tyler Robin we lost died are you still with us leave just turned off his camera or its camera are disconnected so right now Bitcoin is in the power say something if you're still like yeah I'm still here if you can hear me yeah we can still hear you but anytime I mean you don't have to keep a camera on that's fine so right now bitcoin is in an absolute no trade zone all the trading like there was a time I mean you could have gone long at any time over the last few weeks and you could have gone short around that $5,000 mark but this morning like when I did that video there was a short on the table yeah at them do it's absolutely no trade you need to wait and see if the weekly chart is gonna close above 5,000 or below this moving average if Bitcoin closes below this moving average on a weekly scale then I am I would be absolutely certain that the bull trap is in and we go lower if close above 5,000 this week I will expect higher prices up to the next level which is the $5,600 area may be as high as 6000 so on a weekly scale this is it the the it's a no trade zone right now now you have to wait till the week ends the daily chart is also on a no trade zone at the chart you have to wait and see if you're gonna close above or below this moving average right here currently sitting at 4600 the 46:15 is you are like up and down Mendoza line I guess and right now all signs are pointing to a pullback back to 4200 now it doesn't have to be instant this could take several weeks to form and now if we stay above the $4,800 area basically slightly above where we are now then we can still get a perfected 9 on a daily but a still swinging higher than 5,100 sometime this week creating that to me should I be looking at that or someone just asked while you're talking what's the weekly EMA that you're indicating I do not there are you can see my triple moving average forecast they are they're not exponential they're simple and you're also you're looking at right there it's the 50 the 128 and the 200 so the blue line is the 200 the it's probably better that if you if there's a question just interrupt us like I'm youth interrupt us and just ask it would probably be more efficient but uh this is the 200-day moving average which is critical and right now on the current candle is a no trade zone the rest of the day you just have to wait and see because you'll be guessing what's gonna happen there's a no trade candle the 12-hour chart is also a no trade candle that was a huge for candle and now you're kind of stuck in of nowhere you're overextended on a five it's a five of nine but your nine could be you know well the nine would need to be higher than a five but basically it's a no trade zone all over the place the the four-hour chart is on a combo thirteen and again it might have just topped on a sequential thirteen at the high this three is I don't think it's above the two the high here is forty eight thirty twenty and here it's forty eight twenty nine ninety so you are not higher than the two you would need a higher high coming in here at the four hour chart is not looking interesting to me and the one hour chart if it shows up and oh yeah there it is ah the one hour chart is kind of flat but we're running into the moving average which has just flattened out so that's very very interesting as I'm refreshing this chart let me see here right so here's the one hour chart now I do want to Tyler what is your take and everything I said and then I want to revisit the short trade that I talked about this morning yeah that's the ten minute chart you're showing right now the time in achar let's let's go back through here is the hourly chart the hourly chart is the only one that's actually our borderline bullish guys we finally hit the sequential 13 penny hourly chart but we have another sequential incoming we're on a green sticks if this trades up a little bit like one more take higher and this becomes a green seven so our nines coming in a couple of hours and this kind of shape is actually bullish to me because we're having higher closing highs so the hourly chart is the only bullish chart here Tyler were you or were your thoughts on everything I just said so far well I agree in general but I think that this consolidation we're seeing since the peak is impressive from a bullish point of view it's way too early to make that call but now that we've blown through that 4,000 to 4,200 range I don't see a whole lot of overhead resistance all the way back up to the 5800 to 6000 in which I think it's massive resistance I think it's very impressive that we were able to cut through all the moving averages so easily now that can be reversed by the end of today and I my assumption is because I'm still very bearish my assumption is we'll do that but I think on that daily chart we need to close very close to the 200-day moving average and quickly get back below and I'd like it to get rejected very quickly as a bear if we stay above that 200-day moving average on a closing daily basis by tonight I think it could be setting up for something that could take us higher so I agree with you that everything is neutral right now except the hourly chart chart it's going to be one of the most fascinating days I've seen in a long time not only for the crypto currencies in Bitcoin but also for the u.s. the US stock market as well as a number of other markets around the world that we'll get to in just a second but on this one hourly chart I'd like as a bear I'd like to get to the nine very quickly and then start a correction back down and then have it spread to the four hour and the 12 hour and the daily so that by the end of the day today we are considerably lower right now I'm impressed with whoever it was that pumped that amount of money in in short period of time now Lea sent me an article saying that it started out as an April Fool joke and just it triggered a lot of short sales yesterday and it could be that simple when you take a look at the volume it was unbelievably impressive going into the peak but it was over very very quickly so I've got a lot of thoughts by the end of the day today we should take another look at all of this yeah it's definitely going to be interesting I mean I'm actually watching this I would love to have this is a green 7 and then pick up a little bit more to give us that 9 in a couple of hours that would be ideal ok ah now I I do want to get to your to longer let's let's zoom in on a 10 minute chart I'll talk about this so when I did the video this morning again this is at the airport frustrated with flights and sleep-deprived partially to my own due to my own doing as a Lea nicely pointed out easier so ok so the short trade oh and by the way since we're looking at this 10 minute chart let me show you guys what separates the quality of my time to mark sequential or my version of it from the actual ones you see these plus signs these are the deferred 13 notice how the sequential 13 from this 9 complete it but the sequential 13 from the 9 that took place all the way down here at 4172 continues to be deferred with the plus signs ah this is the quality of the code so thank you my developers that were not did not come cheap to get the code right so I would love to see some real stuff but actually knows what they're doing with the code so be careful as to what sequential you're using when you're using the free versions just just a heads up there can I jump in on that really quickly so one first of all very impressive because pine is a stupidly crazy language to Tyler just because one you I like to make fun of you of learning at TD sequential with Larry Williams on papyrus but that you actually did prior to Tone's course make me try to do it by hands and you just make a quick comment on that because we often talk to tone and you've probably heard it about how your indicator is much better but why can you just from your perspective of having learned it dinosaur years ago just kidding because it was your birthday sorry how you see it as better oh yeah it's much better in a lot of ways there there there there's not just one or two changes to the way tone uses this there's some significant important changes particularly having to do with the fact that the standard indicator that was developed from Larry Williams and then put on due Bloomberg by Tom Demark can go for a very long period of time without showing any kind of numbers because of the way it turns the numbers off and tone corrected that so you always see all of these numbers that's number one number two is the the pluses the deferred the the deferred completion of various countdowns is very important but what most people don't understand is it's tones ability to add things to the sequential system to draw conclusions there was nothing in sequential that was saying we could run to 50 100 nothing that comes from tones experience with the way various resistance and support areas work there was nothing in sequential that said that we were going to break below that 6000 barrier other than tones recognition of the geometric geometric shape of that descending triangle that's not sequential but when you put those on top of the changes that tone is made to the sequential system your accuracy goes up dramatically relative to other people that are just using the regular free version of of this so I I think that's what you were talking about Leah but it's really unbelievably impressive hats off and yet you were talking about candlesticks more than usual I felt in your video but I was sleep deprived onward March yeah Thank You Tyler so so here's that 10-minute chart I was able to use the sequential nine and the combo 13 and the fact that we got the reversal candle on the combo 13 to be able to call this the top and attempt to time a short trade now also you know 20 minutes earlier during my video when we had this tail on a 7 I anticipated that we would go higher because I wanted to see the perfected 9 and a 10 minute scale so those were two good calls this morning now here is the unfortunate part this morning during that short trade that I got activated a little bit later than would have been ideal activated at 49 25 I did say hey if it's a 10-minute short straight it said you know you're only supposed to hold it through a few candles you take some profit when it fell you know over $200 and then I initially had a break-even stop-loss but then I moved the stop-loss randomly into the middle of this candle when the when this candle started to form I moved it randomly I didn't really calculate anything and because again I was just doing a video now because I'm moving randomly you can see that the wick of this candle very sly jumped into where that stop-loss was now in reality in reality if I was actually putting on a trade I would have thought about where this line would have been now you as a trader also would have thought about it some traders might have even just left it at break-even you know hey you took a bunch of money and now you're gonna hold and prey on the rest of the short other traders could have put it lower down the candle other traders could have put it right smack in the middle of that candle or slightly higher like for me it was just a random placement I wanted to take some profit off of the off of corn and right within ten minutes for a 200 dollar fall on a 10 minute scale and then I just randomly stuck it here and it was just unfortunate that the next candle ran right into the stop-loss but it was a theoretical stop-loss in reality I mean maybe I would have got lucky maybe in reality I would have put it there or maybe I would have put it lower award maybe I would have put it exactly where it was the point is it doesn't matter the point is it was the perfect execution of a trade with defined risk and decent reward which could have been very quickly realized so I just wanted to point out that it was just you know unfortunate random luck as I stuck that blue line randomly in the middle of that candle and the next candle ran right into it normally I would calculate the body of this red candle and stick it right right above the middle mark which could have been a little bit higher I'm assuming by just looking at it that would have been the reality that's also what we teach in my class okay yeah let me make a couple of comments there because I was watching as you were doing that and as the candles were forming and a bunch of observations number one for those that you need to go back and watch and understand what was going on we just had a move from 4150 all the way up to 5100 and this system of sequential was telling you that the the end was coming very quickly now tone was looking for that on that nine candle and then when we flipped into the one that ran up to 5100 he was saying we need a reversal candle here just think of what what we're saying we're saying we just rent a thousand dollars on one of the most volatile asset classes in history after a period of four months of it not moving at all over and over again and then finally breaking out above my 4,000 to 4200 range 99.99% of all the people watching this last night we're saying tone is wrong Tyler is wrong everybody's wrong all the Bears are wrong but what tone was doing is using a trading system that was looking for the precise point at which all of that ammunition and nobody knew who was buying but all of that demand was going to come to an end that's what sequential does it measures when demand is running out of gas and who would have guessed that it would have come on such a spectacular fireworks display as we saw last night and then who would have guessed that tone stuck in an airport after his flight is canceled was sitting there doing the analysis minute by minute and precisely called the top now tone didn't said but I'll say it for him if tone actually taken that trade I never would have taken that trade why because I've already said I will never short Bitcoin – I'm out of Bitcoin completely I am out of gbtc I don't really care we're in a bear market we're going much lower all these wiegel's even thousand-dollar moves just don't impress me I'm just waiting for it all to turn Lord but for a trader what tone would have done is he wouldn't have gotten out of that trade with that profit he wouldn't have gotten out till the – the green 3 at about 11 o'clock went above the green – I think that's when tone would have gotten out of the trade and he might not have gotten out of it at all if he hadn't moved that stop-loss down and he might still be short shorted he needs to explain that himself but I believe that in real time if he was sitting in an office making the decisions he would have written all the way through all of that action and might still be short that trade right now looking for a place to get out and you could see that the profit would have been much much bigger than it actually was we never actually got back up to that blue line after after that trade so what my point is is Tony's been looking for nines I've been looking for nines we got nines we've got weekly nines I think this is going to roll over and go much much lower except for just what I said in terms of I'm very impressed with its ability not to break down but I think by the end of this day we're gonna see a lot more weakness but people need to go back and watch moment by moment as this top was developing to really understand the power of technical analysis in the hands of somebody that really knows what he's doing thank you for that Pilar okay uh a couple of things so I'm watching gbtc I'm not gonna show my screen so gbtc went all the way up to I think like 580 something my my cell limit is actually above that I'm still anticipating a bit of a run up in the premium I'm actually curious what that premium is at the moment because for some reason my broker has shown me a delayed quote even though as far as I know I'm paying for real life quotes but that's what happens when you don't actively trade like you don't pay attention to that so I'm getting a delayed quote here as well so we have to wait like maybe two more minutes to see it I'm dying to look at the SMP 500 yeah Wow Yentl has turned green on the futures this is awesome now there is gonna be a sequential 13 tomorrow coming in but there is another sequential count already in the background from the latest nine so there's no reason to really were be worried about the daily sequential 13 coming in tomorrow because you're still on a 5 daily and the weekly still looks very good we're only on a 3 I think we're gonna challenge the old-time high probably this summer if not you know next week God knows if Bitcoin rally the S&P can do the same obviously it was a Lea made me look at palladium yesterday and that was awesome did you see that I couldn't believe it what an amazing job sequential did on palladium yeah absolutely it was it was great we've been watching it closely we've got a bunch of people trading it as a hyper wave and we were looking for a break of the floor and I think that's what we're looking at here is actually a 5 down in a hyper wave which could mean that it's going much much lower yeah that's possible I mean the on every timeframe sequential did an amazing job with palladium so that was really really good oh and you know fighting ahead Leah no good worry no no I was gonna change topics completely to go ahead well so was i but regarding precious and again what I made you do yesterday someone asked about silver and gold and if I'm allowed to be selfish but sometimes I absolutely am on the show if we're able to get to a boil it's very fascinating right now we actually treated it's over sixty two dollars and there's a lot of interesting news there but just it's it's kind of crazy right now so it may be fun to check out or at least people duh to pay attention to where I'm loading oil I'm not sure silver is gonna be that different than gold Tyler off hands I know you know everything is it no silver gold and gold mining shares and silver mining shares are all of them broke above the long-term moving averages to the upside but they have not been able to continue we have we are completely out of all the precious metals but we're watching them very very closely because if the stock market is breaking out to the upside in with low interest rates we're beginning to see some commodities moving up and I think oil falls into that picture oils made back about 50 percent a little not quite 50 percent of its drop and it's very similar for lumber and for copper and for zinc and for aluminum and a lot of different things only and it's not that different than the precious metals in terms of the drop that they had last year and then this long rebound that they've had in 2019 so from a macro point of view with the stock market breaking to the upside with China breaking to the upside China is up 27% so far this year twice as much as the S&P and what that's beginning to say is maybe the growth side of the US stock market the US economy and maybe even China which we've all been worried about is putting upward pressure on things such as oil prices and commodity prices and with all of this going on we shouldn't be surprised to see some money leaking out into certain things like we saw last night into Bitcoin but Bitcoin to me is not the the the big important issue here it's the stock market because you're talking about tens and tens and tens of millions of people that have all their net worth in terms of the retirement accounts in the stock market if we can be breaking to the upside here this is very very good news and as I said as of yesterday I think that's exactly what we're looking at yeah I just has a really quick follow up town just regarding China specifically for the hyung son if anyone trades in Hong Kong they actually entered the biggest bull market after the best quarter since only nine I mean it was just bananas they've jumped something like almost two percent so five point eight percent yesterday I know look at that one on a different stream hey I I do want to talk about your tweet hollering my twitter has been blowing up you know you know what bothers me and I don't know like this is there's the thing and I'm sure at this point that bothers you as well Tyler when people reply saying oh I called this perfectly and then you click on their Twitter profile and they have like a hundred and ten followers right not uh not even a thousand followers like a hundred something followers and they post charge but nobody looks at them right like I'm sorry like it doesn't matter to me if you called it correctly if no one saw it because there's always going to be a hundred people that are calling everything no one questions their bad calls and their one if you I'm like when was the last time you saw me or Tyler post on somebody else's timeline that we called it correctly like clearly you have way too much free time on your hands and and no one is following you so you have to do it guys please don't unless you have tens of thousands people watching every call you make please don't post telling us how right you made a call like that really bothers me I don't know about you guys maybe I'm being you know a little salty right now but it's just honestly it's kind of annoying well I I know what you're saying but at the same time the way I look at this whole space is people are it's all in or all out most of the people that are posting aren't in other markets they're not interested about the stock market or retirement accounts or real estate or the bond market of the currency markets they're all in or all out so when it's going against them they get very vicious because they're losing a lot of money when it goes in their direction they're euphoric because all of a sudden you know they're there the money that they've been losing for the last 14 months to the downside they're getting a little of it back I understand that and so it doesn't really bother me most of the people that are real investors and are looking across a broad spectrum of things understand that what you and I are trying to do is we're trying to give our best recommendations based on all kinds of different technical and fundamental indicators across a broad spectrum of things and so I pretty much ignore ignore it I think unfortunately you become a target more than Lee and I have because you've been doing it much longer but you've also got many many more followers than we do which means you've got many many more trolls than we do right yeah right and the reason this annoys me so much is because like people have been doing that like replying to my tweets with how well how much better they called things than me four years and nine 8% of these people no longer exist on Twitter and that's the annoying part you know like yeah you're gonna call me or four things right and you're gonna get one or two thousand followers and you let me get eaten alive with every single call you made and then you're gonna be gone so like and and this is why like it's just like and people expecting like reply to them so that's what I mean like every every week I see another you know Twitter person uh you know reply to my tweets with how good their calls were and then like put in ones that Twitter account doesn't even exist anymore or they stop posting or they stop doing videos because they make a couple of bad calls and they get eaten alive and they can't handle the pressure so just look I try to get your own following just organically that's the trick not replying to other people with how good your particular calls were I mean I never did that when I started out I remember when I first got my thousand follower it was just all organic that's why it bothers me because these people just they just disappear right after so it's just focus on your tweets not other people's tweets yeah great advice yeah I know it's first you know he's the first response yeah and yeah good jobs either and and also like so many youtubers I called out back in the day like they're gone they're not posting in a bear market they're scared anyway hey Tyler so here's your tweet that's becoming very very popular it says Bitcoin hit tones 50 $100 target congratulations thank you okay cause no change in bear market view so a lot of people have a huge problem with this now we've been saying we've been saying for a long time that going up to this zone of five thousands of hold on a second I'm gonna it's prayer time I'm in a Muslim country I have lots of questions you guys are getting it alright okay but well I'll make this I'll make this real quick Tyler is right this does not change the bearish view if you wait another if we wait till tonight we will see that we are right in this green circle at 5100 it doesn't change anything even going all the way to 6000 doesn't change anything even if the low is in even if we will not go lower you still need a pullback and a clean higher low and by clean I mean this is not a clean higher low to me this was a low what was the low point 31:48 and this was to it wait this was yeah 31:48 and this law was 3354 they're way too close for my liking they were also both supported by a moving average um I do not consider this as a standard trend reversal higher low but now that we've moved into 50 100 if we pull back and make a substantially higher low in that you know in the 4000 to $4,200 area like basically the area where these were where this candle currently sit and we can't have this pullback like tomorrow it has to be more of a prolonged pullback I don't want to mess with these arrows but we're saying if we're pulling back slowly and orderly and establish a low in the low 4000 and then we start to go up and we start to break 50 100 I can then start to admit that the bear market low is in and it's very possible that the bear market is over but until I see that scenario I have to assume that the most likely path is to new lows but also notice how I have a bullish trade in place right just because just because we're in a bear market doesn't mean there aren't buying opportunities if that's the best trade available now if a shorting opportunity shows off and it did on a 10 minute scale but it hasn't yep on a daily scale I'm happy to take that opportunity as well Tyler and then we'll go over to Leah for some questions yeah very good points markets don't go straight up and straight down they never do don't tell me what to buy tell me when to buy it everything that tone is talking about in that Lee and I talked about is the when part of the question and if you go back to the drop from 20,000 there were five or six great opportunities for traders day traders and even position or swing traders to buy this bear market I have said repeatedly that since December of 2017 I don't want anything to do with the long side of this market only because there's so many other things to be looking at that I'm more interested in such as the US stock market precious metals market the bond market where most of my clients have 95 plus percent of their interest and of their dollars very few of my clients are interested in crypto at all at this point but Lee and I have been trying as best we can to explain that this asset is no different than every other asset we've ever looked at which means that in a down market you get counter-trend rallies we are now in a counter-trend rally to the bear market I said that if we did get above 4,200 Tom would probably be right and we'd get up between forty eight hundred and fifty one hundred that's precisely what's happened and that's the time if you've been in this that you have to step aside ready for the next down wave of this bear market now having said that that doesn't mean that the next down wave is going to look like the one that tones got drawn on this chart it might very well but it could also stop back at the 200-day moving average the orange line at the bottom and hundred row which ones that this is the weekly that's oh yeah the 200 week sorry down at the bottom of the chart and if it did if it stops above or at that level that to me could be the end of the down move the next down move that takes place but it's not the end of the bear market we could then run back all the way back up to the the same place we are now or the declining moving average to me the important thing is what the trend is and the trend on this chart that you're looking at right now look at the blue line coming down from the top that's the trend of this asset it's down look at the trend of the next moving average moving down it is down that means the trend of this asset is down all we've done is bounced back up to overhead resistance before headed lower again and until that situation changes we are in a bear market so if you want to applaud yourself for holding all the way down from 20,000 and now you got a couple of nickels and dimes back good for you and I hope you're right I hope this is the end of the bear market I want Bitcoin to go up to twenty thousand fifty thousand a hundred thousand five hundred thousand I believe it will but trying to anticipate based on no facts whatsoever fundamentally or technically all kinds of weird charge that show you that this looks like it's some kind of a bottom and then you go back into history and say look what happened last time to me I'm uninterested in that I want the facts to be where is the price relative to the movement of previous prices moving averages support and resistance lines and right now what tone just summarized is exactly the way we are looking at this which is we got a little bounce that didn't come near the overhead resistance at six thousand and is struggling to hold the five thousand mark and I believe will struggle to even hold the $4,600 moving average before headed lower that's my assumption based on a very long period of looking at all these charts so right now let's see what happens don't get ahead of yourself I hope those people that are bullish turn out to be correct because that's what I want to happen with this asset class for much bigger reasons than making money in it having to do with a much bigger picture of where we are in the world economy but having said all of that unfortunately I think we're headed back lower yeah I'm pretty much with you Tyler I think it's going to be a struggle holding the 4,600 moving average I we uh let's go over some questions I do have silver up I do have oil we can talk about them and there's not much to say about it other than buy it like I don't know what else to say about ya before I do get selfish with WTI fraud gbtc it will keep Bitcoin conversation a little bit more and just a little bit more of an analysis I mean I'm very disappointed in the premium it's not where I wanted it to be I thought that the premium can run up to 30% that's where I actually kind of set my exit my limit order cell I anticipated that there could be a short squeeze within gbtc and the premium or at least like euphoria it probably if this move happened during a New York market hours I think the premium would have broken 30% and I would have had an amazing exit on gbtc because it have we had already corrected going into market open it did not create euphoria and a liquidity squeeze in gbtc which is unfortunate because the traditional markets are closed 80% of the day and we're like 70% of the day so it kind of sucks I'm very disappointed that the premium is only about 19% right now which is why I haven't taken my profit yet off of gbtc so I'm still hanging it on to that but maybe at some point today I will take the profit regardless my trade is certainly in the money in full and gbtc I already took some profit at 5:45 and right now you can see gbtc at 5:59 which is kind of lower than otis a delayed quote i see it different on my broker i see it as a 570 right now at my broker so this is a delayed quote but uh yeah I'm it's unfortunate that this move didn't happen during trading hours in New York Tyler what do you see and also gonna throw it to partner how would you trade this would you but um you know if you were in it like tone what would you think about your trade your position well because I think we're still in a bear market I think this is an opportunity to get out of any crypto you're in including Bitcoin and that includes gbtc I'm I'll be looking for an exit and I wouldn't be I don't think there's much more upside here I did build a case for how we could get upside but with the evidence we're looking at right at this moment this pullback is taking place just the way it should off of a nine and therefore on a weekly basis we could get a one to four week pullback here and that will shrink all of these premiums and the rest of it so I'd be on tinder hooks a little bit if I was looking for a place to get out I think last night was a great opportunity but tones right it's a shame that you couldn't trade gbtc that's why we need ETFs from a lot of exchanges around the world in the crypto world so that they could be traded 24 hours a day until we get all of the technicals worked out for Bitcoin and other things but in any case I'd be looking to step aside as quickly as possible ya know it's gonna sound would you tell actually just altered my gbtc sell order I actually increased my quantity I'm still not exiting all of it but I'm exiting 50 percent of what I have in gbtc 50% of my quantity and I did lower my sell limit it's uh I lowered it to something reasonable so all I would need is a little bit of a pop in the premium at current prices and I'll let you guys know if it fails I have maybe I I said I wanted to keep this video to an hour but we'll probably go a maximum of 30 more minutes and so if my gbtc order fails I'll tell you what that price actually was congratulations on being able to step aside of some of the Bitcoin from the conference I mean that's that's a big benefit and you know Leah and I we've been holding on from 3100 to certain Bitcoin positions that people have paid us in and we've been getting out between 4,000 and 4200 I wish we had waited a little bit longer for this pop but it worked out perfectly for the understanding Bitcoin conference so congratulations on that one thank you okay are real quick there on the S&P there is oh you know what let me go to a ten-minute S&P chart I've delayed quotes they are so unattended S&P charted this morning so that was the opening candle yeah this is not that's not actually ideal but this is a classic 10:00 a.m. reversal we fell at the open moved up into 10:00 a.m. and now we're pulling back kind of hard I don't like this candle at all on a minute frame it looked like we were having a very good open it's pulling back a little bit I would anticipate this to reverse I'm still bullish I mean the sequential is bullish the 13s coming tomorrow we're on a 4 of 9 daily either weekly is very clean I gotta trust my tacticals and be bullish here in general on the S&P I am NOT nervous about the S&P yet all right Lea let's go over to you for questions got it awesome well what's interesting also if you throw up or you don't have to now because we are going pretty late and Tyler our clients are getting mad at us that so yeah I mean so we're a little bit lower you know but also european stocks are climbing like sorry there's the sterling suffering on more brexit confusion Treasuries are advancing oils studying i mean there's there's a lot of interesting stuff going on if you want to have fun so we won't do the WTI and someone in the lab chat said talk oil to me so i will stop being obnoxious about that throw up lift it just IP owned and you will see what happened it's down to 66 bucks i'm actually thinking of stepping in and buying some of the let's find out one did it i peel two days ago and it was supposed to come out at 72 it came out at eighty it ran up to 85 but then that was it and then I began to dump and now it's down to 66 below what anybody had paid for it I ain't no so weird auction by the way in general these kinds of IPOs go significantly lower before they start the reverse yeah I wouldn't dumping in on lift yet yeah Google did it and baseball know it I know Facebook did and the things like GoPro went straight down but lift isn't GoPro let me see here it's ly ft of I'm curious what this is because it bounced beautifully off of a 9 Lufthansa I've never heard good I clue him yesterday today oh it's an airline oh so the reason why this chart is up is because of my in my last workshop I randomly asked people to name a stock and then we kind of look at it and this was the one that was Ryan in my last workshop and you can see right here a beautiful sale on a nine and a beautiful you know reversal candle here granted this could have hit your stop-loss but I would be comfortable long this airline right now but what are we looking at lift what's the ticker I'm assuming it's just lift ly ft yeah and setting the stage for uber which is a much more massive IPO so there were an erase it's kind of interesting but yeah look at that one yeah so I would not I wouldn't chase this I'd wait another week I would be more comfortable buying it like at 88 than I am now let's just put it that way i I wouldn't chase it on a ten minutes okay well if you're a day trader right so if you're a day trader and you wanted to pick it up this morning maybe you had your chance to do that they had a couple of nines now it would have been tricky to buy it this morning because it I don't trade in the first 15 to 20 minutes of market open and it's been kind of flat like I I wouldn't chase this I I don't like it here I think it can I think it can go down to like 48 49 I'd be comfortable buying it and I'd like 48 49 maybe in the mid mid 50s but I I wouldn't buy this in the 60s I think you can drop even lower especially with after I've seen so many IPOs do nothing but go down and it's just a way because remember an IPO is no different than a coin being listed on an exchange the insiders want to get out right like it's gonna go down and there's really insiders are dumping enough of it because they know they can buy it cheaper later so you you're really like if you're a retail investor trading IPOs you you're gonna get wrecked like just just wait just be patient if I could jump in on that really quickly just having raised institutional capital but also just this divide which I hope people understand which I find really interesting about lift and then we're following suit is just like when you IPO yeah absolutely it's a liquidation right it's a liquidation event we've talked about this a lot for I SEOs and and also just in general it was happening with pit main which epically failed right all these different things but what I find really interesting when you IPO and that everybody should understand is that public markets for the most part are my own and tell me if you disagree but myopically focused on the short term right like it for the most part it's it's they want their dividends right and that's why you have all these stock buybacks you know they expect companies that to return the cash and investors rather than really you know invest in these long-term projects for the most part that's where private equity will be okay with my oil and gas and yes I love our G but again you know they're regularly spending more than 100 percent of their profits on dividends and buybacks but venture capitalists are like the exact opposite for the most part right you know you know the structure of the VC is that you're hoping that one out of ten in your fund is actually going to return in the field that actually like fill your fun so actually they invest in businesses with massive losses terrible Union economics almost no faster than profitability for the most part you know and and just you do even sell a less than desirable product look at Bitcoin Wow you're exactly right Leigha coin grows an example all right I'm done go go go take one and yesterday's yeah so Bitcoin is really dropping here and yeah I mean if anyone took that short trade that I was talking about this morning and that trade didn't fully hit that stop-loss and you're still not sure you're doing well would expect this thing to just go lower at this point and it's gonna test out $4,600 moving average support on the daily and the weekly money management question on Bitcoin then that we got through the live chat Sint and it's up hey guys quick question since it's very hard to call the exact bottom or be able to buy at the exact bottom doesn't it it makes sense did you start buying weekly and forget about it a long time no no no no no I look in the mirror and slap you're so stop it don't have to do is look at what tone just showed you about the sequential system that will tell you where the bottom is and you overlay on top of that concent CEO that will tell you where the bottom is this is not rocket science you just have to understand that a trend every trend down will come to a bottom there's a million ways of telling when it's gotten to that bottom stop making it complicated yes dollar cost averaging makes a lot of sense but you dollar cost but everybody is getting this dollar cost averaging thing mixed up what dollar cost averaging means in the real world of investing is you put X amount of dollars continually into a market regardless of its going up or down you don't try to call a bottom or a top you put five hundred dollars a month into Apple stock every month for the rest of your life that's dollar cost averaging it means you ignore completely ignore the trends that's a different story what people are talking about here is Tyler you said 14 months ago that we had topped in the Bitcoin in the crypto market correct therefore the trend should start moving down which it did and is still moving down as we sit here today so the question is I agree that nobody can tell where the absolute bottom is before it occurs even hyper wave cannot tell you exactly where the bottom is going to be but at $5,000 or at $4,000 or even at $3,000 those are huge percentage differences in the amount of money you've got if you've got money at six thousand dollars like so many of you did in Bitcoin and you did not listen to tone and myself saying that we were going to drop down sharply below six thousand and you held on to that you lost 50% of your money which means twice your buying power when you finally get down to the bottom be patient wait for the trend to change not the hourly trend not the daily trend not even the weekly trend the trend the trend is measured by the long term moving average is when they stop going down you will get signals and then you can start putting some money into the market and you put a little bit in you don't put a hundred percent you put twenty-five percent in at 3,000 put another 25 percent of 2500 put 10% at 2,000 put another 10% at 1,500 now you've got half of your money in and you're still going down but what's happening is you're getting closer and closer to the zero line wherever that's going to be and nobody knows where it is but don't start doing it at 12,000 dollars or ten thousand or 8,000 or 6,000 or 4,000 it's way too early you're still in a downtrend alright I'll take a look at US law thank you for that Tyler I am look I Maksim I'm actually okay with people dollar cost averaging I mean that article that ugly old goat road is really good look if you're not a traitor but you love Bitcoin you believe in Bitcoin I'm okay with it like as long as you know you don't go overboard with how much it is what's how much you're putting into it real quick I took the exit on gbtc I did not like that candle I wish I saw it earlier I would have gotten a slightly better exit now to those that were wondering how I had my gbtc sails set up so at around I don't know after my video this morning from the airport it was middle of the night New York time I put in a limit sell order at 624 $6.24 I think it would have been hit had the pump happened during market open hours could have even gone higher than that I then lowered it after market open I lowered it to 589 and that wasn't getting hit we only got up to 580 but when we started to drop I'm not candle I took the exit at 570 like 569 570 I took the gbtc exit which is the current price of gbtc so III didn't sell my entire position i sold half of what was left because I already had sold some and I'll probably exit the other half at some point today but I did not like that 10-minute candle that you guys were watching and therefore I took the exit and we already sold all the Bitcoin that we took in from ticket sales for understanding Bitcoin I mean I am taking this pop seriously I don't think it has that much momentum to go now we can take a look at Tesla I didn't realize I was on a ten minute chart and I'm like oh what a perfect pop call on a daily but that's not daily that's 10 minutes and that was at the end of the day I'm four on yesterday I guess Monday let's go to the daily chart of Tesla the daily chart of Tesla actually bothers me a lot Beth I don't like it now overall Tesla is still looking good on a weekly scale on a weekly scale Tesla is looking pretty good but you're at the bottom of the range so this is a good opportunity to buy into Tesla if you took you know some good profits at some point above like in a 350 area this is decent I think this is a good bounce I will wait till next week I will wait for a green to weekly above a green one and on a daily chart on a daily chart you're still kind of bullish but you're in a bearish posture all year long so it's a little bit of a mixed bag the timeframes are all over the place I'm leaning slightly bullish but I would not be swing trading Tesla right now I don't trade things where I'm slightly leaning in one direction over another I trade things with eighty to ninety percent confidence on not trade and I am NOT eighty to ninety percent confident than anything in Tesla I will say that it did a reverse off a reversal candle and there was a nine and you're now on a five of nine so on a daily scale it's a little bit late to enter the trade on a weekly scale you're a little bit early to enter the bullish trade but if the market goes up and you get a weekly green to above a green one you're gonna conflict with your daily nine so your timeframes are contradicting each other and I just don't like it so I like I would stay away from Tesla if you're short Tesla there's reasons to stay short if there's a law if you're long past lied there's reasons to stay long I'm very neutral on Tesla I think I've been this way for several weeks then Tyler quick comment and then I think yeah we are a number of our clients bought Tesla off of that five candle only because it's a phase line right there along with that blue moving average and my assumption was that on this six red candle we would reverse off of that break of the trendline the fact that we didn't take out the green dotted line the setup trend was important to me so we bought that six candle and now we've got a gap up on the green one my idea is a good run up to the 300 area where you get some overhead resistance I'd love it if it could get above that because then we can test the highs at 380 again one of these times I think Tesla's going to break the 380 high and keep on going but tone is exactly right when you look at this chart it's very neutral basically I'm not a traitor except in my own account and Lee and I've been playing this off of these extremes when you get too low or too high and so far that's working out pretty well thanks I all right all right all right that's I think we have to call it like I'm looking at oil there was a nice one too for candle correction or for nine and now we're 100% bullish I mean you have this Fibonacci at 63 72 but the weekly oil sorry that daily oil is fully bullish and the weekly oil is fully bullish but we're running into a moving average resistance plus the fibonacci resistance so you're also inside of a 13 I mean I can I mean it's hard for me to believe why oil is continuously going up but it might attain my fundamental opinion on oil is completely irrelevant what matters is the technicals and the technicals are bullish across the board absolutely and I and I think this is a very important industry in the United States and you'll notice that in the down cycle from my overdue December that's precisely when the US stock market was falling and it is precisely at that bottom where we started moving up in the US stock market and moved up in oil I think because oil is such an important part of the US and the u.s. is now the biggest exporter of oil and LNG and natural gas in the world even though we don't have as much crude oil as even Venezuela or Saudi Arabia does we are net exporters for the first time in almost a century and therefore if we think the stock market is breaking out to the upside I would fully expect to see oil prices continue the way Lee has been talking about it and technically that's happening right now we do need to turn around these longer-term moving averages to the upside and until that happens I'm not fully bullish oil but we're getting there week by week yeah and tones talked about this before as I buy things back and I I just believed in the fundamentals so thank you guys for pushing this on every day is that there's sometimes and there's kind of conventional wisdom people believe that there's an inverse relationship between equities and oil prices but I Tony I have one more question for you see Emmy and then I think we can call up at that Bitcoin we don't we closed 43 9dc Emmy gap one left is 35 70 eventually every grab on see me as close thoughts just to see Emmy question what do you mean the CME in that sort of what do you mean by seeing me the futures what do you mean futures I assume I every like down gap is closed we closed it 4390 gap half 3570 sorry you have to make a question is very specific CME's publicly-traded company you can't just say she and me I'm gonna pull up the equity chart of the CM e company like you guys have to be very very specific okay do you wanna call it would you like yeah if the Bitcoin if the Bitcoin future institutional markets have closed all of the downward gaps and that creates more selling pressure for lower prices because once the gaps closed it professional traders have fully hedged they're screwed up positions silas thoughts only I want to hear tone did you get a flight yet to Malta I think so it's a little weird here I didn't get a full confirmation but I think I'm set I think I'm flying out so I gotta wake up at 5:00 a.m. again and I think I'm flying out I I gotta be up at 5:00 and I fly out seven something in the morning so I'll be in volta tomorrow oh great yeah I fly out tomorrow I'll be there next day so yeah go ahead live well one good thing for all of us is the dollar strengthening yeah yeah and we'll be on Malta all right terrific good job Joe Istanbul yeah brilliant all right guys thank you all we forgot to look at silver but it it's bearish like there's tops on a nine the weakly silver tops on a nine and we're now on a six of nine and we're only one moving average left holding up the price then all you have is the setup trend line and then silver is in serious serious trouble probably gonna go probably gonna go to new multi-decade lows here I I don't see any reason I mean talk about a perfect I mean that triangle and pretty much I can like almost extend this this angle came back and tested it now it's going lower the big thing to me are the moving averages it really looks bad gold really looks bad and mining shares really look bad I'm trying to get any client that's still in it I'll I don't like it at all yeah I mean silver looks very ugly it's one of the ugliest charts that I've seen in a while I don't know what the silver bar are thinking because they continue to be wrong for over ten years in a row and they continue to preach buy silver and I think silver is gonna go sub ten dollars when then I might be interested yeah my my targets eight bucks and I may or may not want to buy it at that level yeah pretty bad alright one last peek a Bitcoin is still holding but we're gonna go ahead and leave it there and Leah thank you so much for joining I don't forget guys understanding Bitcoin I check it out come join us in Malta we still have a few seats left and hopefully we'll see you guys there hey tone stop messing with the lira while you're there oh yeah speaking of the lira Tyler that's what I want to talk to you about yeah we take some time after Malta can we do a deep dive into the lira and if it was or wasn't in a hyper wave and what's coming next because I've been in Turkey talking to people and they're very curious absolutely we've got a bunch of clients that know a lot about it some of them that live in Istanbul and that'll be a that'll be very interesting from a hyper wave point of view yeah that's great yeah after after after after Malta I will do a deep dive into the lira I'm really looking forward to it alright guys thank you so much for watching I and we'll see I should have no idea if I'm gonna do any streams the rest of the week but there will be a live stream for the conference so you guys can watch what we do bye guys and we'll see you in Malta bye guys bye bye

20 thoughts on “Trading Bitcoin – We Hit $5,100, is the Bull Trap in Place?”

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  2. One thing I've learned from trading, whenever most people are saying sell, it's time to buy and vice versa… One more down turn and I'm buying back in.

  3. Let tyler speak more, and tone less. You can see tyler is bored about the internet trolls subject coming from tone.

  4. Happy 70 Tyler, that means you went through basic training at Cape May , NJ  in 1969. I went through Coast Guard basic training there in 1965.

  5. Simply put, bitcoin is at a critical level because this could be the actual bull run or a bull trap in view. It is highly probable that if it exceeds its 2019 all time high and resistance of $4200, it will quickly proceed to a more stronger resistance at over $6,000. The reverse which is still very possible is the bitcoin dropping again to $3,500 and below. One scenario may seem good and the other bad but in reality, they are both good case scenarios, one presenting the chance to accumulate more and even allow for greater profits. I previously used the dollar costing strategy where i bought a fixed amount of $2,000 every month after payday but i eventually adopted another strategy which i was introduced to by James Valentin, an extremely good trader and mentor with which i could grow my portfolio by trading and making ROI which was impossible to accrue when i was just dollar cost buying and holding. Trading permits the trader to make profits of fluctuations which would ordinarily mean nothing to most investors and i capitalized on this system of James and i am profiting steadily and building my portfolio which is now over 46 BTC without necessarily having to buy more and more coins every other month. I would urge every crypto enthusiast to look at the possibilities with trading and delve in with the right guidance in place. You can reach James by mail or whatsApp ([email protected] com or +1(9782918255) for all inquiries related to bitcoin trading.

  6. Fuck me you guys have been doing this show for ages and that old prick still can’t figure out his shit when you go live

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  8. Bitcoin has the best day in over a year and tone takes 15 minutes badmouthing other people’s price predictions and followers. Atta boy tone. Let’s try and make this day miserable,

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