Trading Bitcoin w/ Tyler, Venzen & Willy – BTC Back Over $4k



hey everyone and welcome to another episode of trading Bitcoin with your host own face tour we are gonna cover the markets gold and this is gonna be a great episode it's like I I never thought I'd say this like I love Hong Kong it's one of my favorite cities I really wish they had slightly bigger apartments but um I really love Hong Kong but I'm so happy that I am you know in Zurich because it was it was getting really hectic it was like 10 days of I'm not even a big part of year but it was 10 days of of too much fun and now it's back to business so I did a video right before I got on the flight I got off the flight I got to my apartment here in Zurich I glanced at the price and we were over 4000 time wise it was easy for me to shoot over a message to Tyler who doesn't seem to sleep and then then who is a short-term trader so he probably also doesn't sleep so welcome guys and we can go ahead and talk about the markets Bitcoin SMP and whatever else is on your mind terrific hello everybody a great to see then Zen again and you tonne catching up with you finally yeah the markets are going crazy I've sent out a bunch of tweets saying I've never seen anything quite like this in 40 years of watching asset classes and markets what I mean by that is everything is right on the edge of either breaking up very big or breaking down very big and it doesn't matter if we're talking about precious metals or the world stock markets or the dollar and currencies or Bitcoin now back at 3995 it hit 4000 as some of you know I think it's gonna have a lot of trouble getting over 4,000 to 4,200 but I can't wait to hear them Zen and tone so this is going to be a lot of fun today hey where's that how you doing man hey there Tony doing well I'll tell you what we're having one of the one of the hottest dry seasons in Thailand at the moment it's just incredible the amount of heat and no rain relief you know normally monsoons blow through and it kind of it kind of clears some dust and stuff but it's just incredible and and for me this is strange because it's coinciding with this period in the market where there's been a lot of frustration especially in Bitcoin you know everything is going up even some stupid out coins and and Bitcoin is just in this frustrated sort of little patterns and it seems that there is an hour release of some energy and it's gonna be interesting for us to talk about it I've got some interesting scenarios mapped out and Wow what there were US stock market is doing this this could be incredible I'm leaning to the upside but I think Tyler is gonna temper that all right great let's let's go straight to screen share we're gonna talk about the CBOE news as awhile I don't know if we should cover it up first if we should cover that last by the way I just did another interview it's over on my Twitter with I have a bunch of interviews coming up hopefully promote the conference a little bit more understanding good point Tyler you will be there on a vente and you don't mind if I mute you right and people people have asked me if you live on the side of a highway and like no no you guys haven't been to rural Thailand the bike scene get pretty loud based on how fast they're going so Tyler and Leah will be there along with lots of other really really cool people I will be meeting Christian Decker actually on Monday we're both gonna be speaking at a meet-up here in Zurich so that should be a lot of fun so really looking forward to that and it will be great so please go ahead and check that out Karn every dinner is also open for registration over on tone vase comm all the way I had the homepage over on viscom really really quick there just want to update you guys on my travel schedule so if you go over the workshops and it's Amsterdam's been added a Berlin Rome my traveling just doesn't stop I will be oh the zurich is tomorrow then we have cairo malta and philadelphia so please check out philadelphia these are the workshops and my calendar will be updated this weekend a bunch of other conferences that i have committed to traveling to so go ahead and check that out and we will be adding new t-shirts over to the store ok let's go to the news let's just cover CBOE because this is gonna be really really quick ok so I'm sure Tyler is gonna agree with me on this one because he was watching me back then when the futures came out if you guys go back to the videos of the futures launch I'm gonna try to keep this as briefly as I can when I learned that the CBOE was front running CME and launching their Bitcoin futures last minute ahead of the CME I was incredibly critical of the CBOE because I felt that the CBOE does not have an expertise in the futures market CBOE has an expertise in the options market so I had said a year and a half ago the CBOE has no business launching Bitcoin futures not only do they not have business launching the futures there's not enough liquidity for the need to have two different companies launching them now I know what everyone's gonna say oh you're against free market you're against free market no I'm I'm for efficiency and for expertise and therefore only the CME really should have had futures to begin with so I am not surprised at all that the CBOE is removing the futures now is this good or bad this is actually good the CBOE and the CME launched their futures contracts at the peak of the price of Bitcoin so maybe we now need the CME to realize how silly it was for them to launch Bitcoin futures early and to also stop launching the Bitcoin futures maybe in about six or nine months and they can signal the bottom in the price of the coin the way they signaled the top in the price of Bitcoin that would be totally ironic and once again a complete and utter coincidence they CA me and the CBOE are not responsible for the bear market the bear market was gonna happen regardless I will admit however that the hype of bitcoiners thinking that the CBOE and the CM e futures are somehow relevant to the price of Bitcoin this hype of the misunderstanding of what these futures are did significantly help drive the price of Bitcoin higher but though so it's all about the hype there's no price manipulation there's no you know conspiracy theories it was all hype that drove it up and once these things launched and they were not very relevant the hype kind of ended and there was nobody left to buy at those exuberant high prices that's pretty much all it is so I wouldn't be surprised if this helps to signal the bottom of the market the way it kind of signaled in hindsight at the top of the market that's my general view on this I also think that it's better this way by only having the see any futures because there's really not enough liquidity to have both of these things in action let's get our stake on this and comment on anything I've said or anything you want to add yeah I would agree completely in terms of the timing of this thing and it showed back on December the 10th of 2017 when the CBOE jumped in front of the CME which didn't come out for another week after that both of which occurred right before the ultimate peak in the market it's not so much that they were bad timers but it shows what the exuberance was at the time in November in December taking the price is much higher than they needed to go and I definitely agree that part of that hype had to do with the uninitiated in financial markets thinking that because the CBOE and the CME were getting involved that that meant large financial institutions were putting their stamp of approval on Bitcoin and crypto currencies which couldn't be further from the truth the CBOE and the CI me were doing it because of the activity they would trade anything they would trade clouds if people were interested in buying and selling clouds or clowns or clouds or anything else it just happened to be that the hottest thing at the time was cryptocurrency secondly I would agree that the CBOE had had no reason to be in this space they are very aggressive and they're trying to grab market share any way they can but but this is a tricky tricky space and thus eme has got it locked up the CME obviously is made up of all the original large exchanges in the futures market that they had gobbled up over the years and they they're the best in the world at what they do in the futures market having said that it's been very disappointing for both the CB o e and the CM e in terms of any kind of use of their product folly mistake very low on the CME excuse me the CBOE and hasn't been stellar on the C on me but the other thing I would say is the CBOE is the group that has been trying to bring these each yes out with the SEC and every single one of them has been shot down so if you're sitting on the Board of Directors or of the CBOE you've just had your head handed to you over and over and over again with this whole crypto thing so I'm not at all shocked that they're they're ending what they're doing in the futures market as of March of 2019 that doesn't mean that they won't come back or try to do something else but this this was the the perfect story I would disagree a little bit with tone in terms of this potentially signaling some kind of a bottom I think we've got a long ways to go to get to a bottom in terms of time and I think both Benson and Tony agree with that we all disagree a little bit of what the ultimate low price is going to be but the fact that all these other crypto currencies are popping so strongly to me indicates that the great majority of people still believe that prices are going up not down all across the crypto spectrum and because of that we aren't anywhere near a bottom yet all right let me just jump back in there real quick and I will just say that what the CBOE should be doing and should have been doing for the last two years is trying to figure out how they can bring options on Bitcoin into the space and they should be using the CM e futures potentially as the underlying element because there aren't really better options to settle those options against an underlying price now what the CM e should have been doing is let the CBOE do the stupidity of launching those futures and failing and what the CM e should've done is create their own index a real index of price without relying and a bunch of exchanges that they then realize they didn't have any control over so both of these you know high-quality financial institutions royally screwed up yeah and if the CM II decided to launch futures ahead of the CBOE I would be critical of the CM e for the dot stupidity yeah I would agree a you know when everybody gets excited about something mmm and I just think about the 5,000 projects in the crypto in the crypto space being able to tell what what is good but in what is not good is is very confusing not only to P people in this space but certainly everybody outside of the space now you can think of what the big banks and the big institutions and hedge funds are thinking about oh my gosh now the CBOE who's been our friend for years and we use it is dropping out of this race I don't think this crypto space is ready for primetime yeah oh I might have misspoken on my last statement I meant if the CME launches options you know that right I would be very cool I would be so critical the CME you wouldn't believe alright then then any thoughts on this or should we move on to the price of Bitcoin I don't know I keep you even care about the futures and options markets of the traditional markets you know what tone I care a lot because for almost a year and three months I had my pin post on my pin post on Twitter was about the CM e futures and it was called understanding the CM e futures because most people didn't the point you made were right at the beginning it's as if the market is so desperate for adoption that when a company like the CME says we're gonna do Bitcoin futures the crypto verse explodes in ecstasy thinking that this means mass adoption and their various points about that the CME is is not a cash is a well it is a cash-settled futures contract so there is no impact on bitcoins trading price right that's the first thing the other thing is you made a very good point about the fact that the CBOE is not qualified they could not track record or precedent of running successful futures it's just not something they did so they were also bandwagoning with that and I'm sort of with Tyler on the side that all of this confusion is an indication that we're not near the bottom and then I need to disagree with Tyler a little bit and I speak under correction Tyler because you you're familiar with US markets whereas I'm familiar with its performance during the last ten years you've got a deeper insight but my view is and told you funny enough you're agreeing with it there is a classic Elliott Wave sort of contrarian dynamic happening because the moment at the CME and the CBOE came online with a Bitcoin futures price crashed and that is uncanny timing and a lot of people said oh it was because there was a lot of shorting well there wasn't sufficient shorting on the CMU of the CBOE to cause price to move nevermind the fact that the CME has gotten no impact on Bitcoin price whatsoever I have so that is a classic signal whereby you know we tend to think that the large institutions the large market makers the large of exchanges have all of this insight into the market somehow more insight than the average Joe trading and that proves that they don't so this is my disagreement with Tyler I think it was a critic timing error not because they chose the wrong moment it's just that they happen to appear on the scene at exactly the wrong moment it was there by the luck and it was sort of a destiny that that would happen and I agree that it's gonna their withdrawal from the market the CMEs withdrawal will indicate an free hello it will indicate it will indicate a temporary bottom all right so let's let's go into the price and just realized I was on useless screen shared the whole time but let's uh let's get back into the price oh man like this was my projection and it was just like little thing that I did I haven't had time to review it or update it the last time I actually looked at this chart Venzon you are playing around with it this shows you how much free time I have to analyze this stuff and everyone really liked your time zones we will do another video let me think about this some more let you play around with this some more and we will come back to it let's talk a little bit more about an intermediate term and short term I did a video this morning I know Tyler SOI advanced then you saw parts of it and to me the weekly chart remains bullish it has been bullish for a while other than this weird drop from 4200 but my view is the same once you go up to 4200 the second time the probability is greater than 50% that we will surpass 4200 and that continues to leave me to my $5,000 target now I had started to walk away from that $5,000 target before the drop below 3000 but the weekly chart remains strong my week which guard remains bullish here we're on a six of nine and looking nicely ideally I would want to see a spike into 5000 not next week but the week after that or the week after that let me just go through some of these charts the daily chart is on a green to above a green signalling a buying opportunity as we're breaking the 128th day moving average now closing about that moving average is gonna be nice because the 200-day moving average is all the way at 4800 which is a reasonable target but of course we'd have to cross 40 to 50 which is the serious resistance zone along with 4200 itself the zone that Tyler doesn't think we're going to break and I'm about to get his diffuse I'm not now actually let's talk about that let's talk about 4200 so Tyler this to me on a daily chart um you know I'm gonna get rid of these boxes they're getting annoying they were indications of volume spikes and I think people have seen them enough and go back to the old videos when I put them up let's get rid of them because they're just cluttering my chart I'm also gonna get rid of these arrows here I mean they're they've been there long enough let me just clean this up this blue line is no longer necessary this red line I don't remember what they were there for cause it's been so long let's clean this chart up a little bit let's go to full screen this is a daily chart it looks fairly boring after the big drop this looks like a pretty decent maybe not it's like this weird Head & Shoulders thing I mean obviously an inverse Head & Shoulders but I hadn't shoulders nonetheless people love this weird Adam and Eve pattern that I've never heard of until like recently that I never really cared about nor do I still do what I do care about is coming back to 4204 what would potentially be the fourth time and at that point I would have like an 80% confidence level that we're gonna break 4200 to the upside and go to about 5k your latest thoughts on 4200 Tyler well I still think that the zone between 4,000 and and 4,200 or 40 to 50 or that redline the set up trend that comes in just below 4,300 I think all of those are very impressive overhead resistance for price now it's true that we bounced we found trouble getting above that on three different occasions but each of those three different occasions tried at least once or twice and in the first case three times to get back up over that 4200 and the most recent we had two days in a row and the second one was this tremendous reversal candle out of nowhere because we were on a green seven and it looked like oh boy here we go to the upside we got at least two more days to go and then all of a sudden the bottom drops out all of that to me it isn't definitive it's not saying there's no way we can get above 4200 but it's saying that there are some very big sellers sitting the air right in this zone I am impressed with the fact that last night we were able to take out the 120 day moving average but where all of a sudden you know not following through now it's too early to draw that conclusion but we've given up half the game already on that pop and if this reverses to the downside right at this 128 I think it could start a pretty big drop I'm not saying that's going to happen we do have a green – above the green one but there is a lot of resistance slightly above where we are a couple hundred dollars maybe up to three hundred dollars up to that dotted orange or red line if we go above that it's going to be difficult to get to five thousand because now the longer-term moving averages on the longer basis are below 5,000 we're quickly getting down to the 4800 level now if it takes us three weeks then I think it'll be very difficult to even forty-five or forty-six hundred maybe on a wick or a big spike up so yeah that that's what I was referring to right because once you go up one time frame to the weekly chart we only need a wick at 5,000 to 5100 as long as the clothes is under that 30 period moving average yeah and I agree completely with that and I I am NOT vehement ly saying that we are not going to get up to the 5000 level as some people know I'm vehemently saying we will not see 65 100 before we see 1500 and we've got a bet on the table I picked that number or because I am nervous from a bears point of view that it's been so long below this 4,200 that if we do pop above it we're gonna take a pretty good run just eyeballing this pattern on a daily basis the bottoms around 3300 the tops are on 4,300 that puts you at 5300 if we break that neckline either on a cup and handle or on an inverse head and shoulders so I completely agreed that if we can get above this 4200 4,300 area we'll probably see some big run up close to 5,000 and then that should be the end of it in terms of an intermediate term move before we begin to fool Manchu comes and pulls the lever again Venza and your thoughts on the 4,000 to $4,200 area how likely do you think we will break it and if we break it what are your op targets and why alright can you please zoom out just a little bit so we get some November price action yeah like that so exactly as Pilar described it we've got that what do you call your your your horizontal red dots there it's that trend line right yeah that's the set up trend line off of the set of a night yeah that's right okay so adding at exactly that level which I assume is around forty to fifty it looks like alright we've got we've got support in November coming down and then in late November we tested to the outside okay the the the set up trendline does not extend this bar left but we can see there's horizontal support turned resistance and then we've been testing it so what I see here is a classic Elliott Wave triangle two rules of Ariat wave coming to play the first one is that we had a barrier triangle from June last year until November wind price broke down in the left of the chart not visible and no need to go there there was a triangle and you called it perfectly right and it broke to the downside this pattern right now is also a triangle why I interpret it as a triangle is because the reversal from the bottom in mid-december goes up in 3k in candles and then you get a confusion a mess of confusion into mid-february right that is a correction a visibly a correction of that move upwards then you've got five waves since mid-december under not mid-december from mid-february until at the beginning of March you've got five peeing waves upwards right you're cutting the five waves I wouldn't start it from the bottom on the left tone I'm thanks for drawing it I would start it from mid-february the I know that doesn't make sense but if you humor me for for two minutes if you draw that that triangle not from the December low but from the February low in other words its bottom left yeah yeah and there is the triangle exactly so if you can if you can start it on the top left hand corner in in late December top left hand corner in late December and then we've got an a wave to late December high where your cursor is then the the B wave coming down to mid February where your cursor is then an advanced into back to the top at 4200 then three waves down back to that ascending sort of bottom barrier and so we've got five touch points right like December's I beat you you're on your own on this one I just try drawing a triangle no matter which way I draw it it does not fit my personal rules of drawing a triangle I'm not an area guy so you can try and describe it you can try and do your own screen share but I'll just no problem I'll just carry on where we left I'll just say hello we play that we've got in advance I'm incapable of drawing what you thinking is what I'm saying okay no problem and and then it becomes confusion so the best I describe it we've got an a way from the with an advancing wave from late December the three green candles show that and then in mid February we've got an advancing wave again and we're looking at a pattern that is consolidating to your to your trendline at those red dots and I think the next time that we meet it there's a chance that we reverse and make a smaller downward correction but there is also a very good chance that this kind of approach and grappling with this horizontal level at 4,200 is going to see a break to the upside right so that's that's that that's my that's my sense that there is a triangle unfolding and in a liquid you've got a rule that you cannot have two similar exact similar patterns in other words two triangles in the same direction in other words since this triangle is not going to resolve to the downside but it will resolve to the upside because its barrier now instead of like the previous one that was at six thousand this one's barrier is at 4200 so it wants to reverse to the upside that's that's my analysis here gotcha so you are leaning bullish here going into the summer not only a little bit but very bullish I think that there is going to be an explosion of irrationality not only in this market but in all markets and that we will go beyond 6,000 not in a straight line but in the course of the next year and a half and when you say all markets you mean within the crypto space or branching even outside of crypto space oh I don't know about all of crypto because the alts the outs did there showed us some bullish fervor when everyone was buying litecoin and and and thrown and everything to the upside and now the value seems to be flowing back into Bitcoin as people close those trades for a Bitcoin payout so I think Bitcoin is is about to embark on a run boom another bull market run but a bear market rally to the upside and I also think that the stock markets are going to perform beyond anybody's expectations to the upside let's jump onto a slightly lower level timeframe so when I did my video from the airport I I mean I was gonna say I noticed the scandal but it was like anyone who would notice this candle but I didn't know it happened in real time I had absolutely no clue I had to zoom in into the sub hourly charts but I'm not an active trader so I don't watch this stuff all day long but you do bends then so I'm gonna shoot this back to you one more time how did you and you know the traders in your Chad group how did you manage this because I zoomed into the lower-level timeframe and if I was a short-term trader we're talking you know ten minute candles and lower like ten five three one minute candles if I was trading that timeframe there's no way I would have made money on this because none of my metrics would have gotten me a profitable trade here I probably would have been at best breakeven or lost some money and if I had obviously a short-term trade ongoing into the scandal that trade got annihilated with a stop loss how did you deal with this because I'm pretty sure you were you were but were you in a trade when this happened or did you trade it is my real question um Tony I did not trade that and nobody from my group traded it and Tyler will understand I don't know if you've looked at the moving averages behavior Tyler in this sort of one hour or 15 minute or five minute charts in Bitcoin at this point exactly exactly at this point bitcoins bitcoins moving averages were in disarray they were making buy signals and sell signals several times a day in the in one hour chart 15-minute chart so this was to us and to my mind was another fake out and we actually had an agreement a condition in place that we would only true but that was a very useful thing he was about to say [Laughter] somebody cut him off always happens that way all right Tyler I mean you definitely don't care about one-hour charts because I barely care about one our charts so general thoughts I I mean you saw my video I mean I don't know what else to say about this candle uh well I I don't either but you did post something to a bunch of people on telegram about a study that was just written on medium and as people are tired of hearing me say I don't trust any of the exchanges that any of the Kryptos are traded on now this is one of the better ones and there are are you know a half a dozen that are a lot better than the other 50 or 75 or 200 or whatever it said in that article but the point is that what they were doing is they were going back and calculating how much of the real volume and the trade action is valid and how much of it is fraudulent and the numbers are just staggering that they've got bots that are doing wash sales at hundreds of the millisecond where you just can't get good fills they're painting the tape making it look like there's a lot more trades and a lot more volume taking place on their exchanges and it's just not true at all what that candle to me looks like is a couple of computers going at it and they're glitching trying to outmaneuver the the other one in a very short time period running the price way up what running the price way down and netting that effect was that the price didn't move at all well I think we have been Zen back.you hey Brendon you were about to say something really really cool I've got off who said you had some kind of a like a agreement in place on trading this so give it a shot one more time though unmoved first I think he's muted yeah guys I was disconnected there for two minutes can you just run by me with what you're discussing no no you were you were talking about not trading this candle and that you had some kind of a verbal agreement with your group on something and then you got cut off from saying what it was oh it was I was cut off for that long right okay I'll put it in a nutshell if you just zoom out of this one-hour chart like a few candles to the left there is a big yeah there's a there's a sort of a closing high established up there and we said we'll trade when price moves above the closing highs in the middle of your chart so when this move happened because they'd been so much confusion in the 15 minute mas where we are watching for a trend to develop that we didn't take the trade did I explain that I was gonna lose if I traded this if I was scalping the five-minute chart I would have lost for sure I would have lost 5% of my account Wow yeah that's that's a sort of an entry but because they had been ma confusion and false signals for four days we just said well wait and wait until we get above the close in the left of the chart and that is the entry we took so I want to bounce it back to you guys because what I was saying when I realized that I've been cut off is that this that Darth Maul candle that price behavior we've seen it lots of times in the chart and it actually angered me I a person to my group and I saying that is so unfair you know that is so unfair because they liquidating to the upside than they liquidating to the downside that's one explanation the other one is that the market is self harming they did they they've faking up to the art upside and then they go to the downside the the Bears lose and the Bulls take it on from there those are the three explanations I got what do you think well while you were off for just a second I made the comment that tone is posted a medium article about some researchers that have gone through the 10 or 15 or 20 exchanges analyzing how many of the trades are valid how many are fraudulent how many are wash trades how many are painting the tape and the conclusion is just overwhelming that if you're playing these games you've got to be ready for the exchanges to rip you off in both directions anytime they want that's what you get with unregulated exchanges and that candle there tells me that's exactly what was going on that they know where the orders are they know where the orders are coming from they know how big they are and anytime they want they can run the price in any direction they want and take as much money as they can from them that's why I would you ever create any of these and and in the process they ruin they are their own playground by playing unfair you know it's like bullying the market and there's a retail yeah it's my favorite and indeed I wish they could be punished if you can bank the money take the money and run like all of the ice cos they don't care if they're following the water for everybody else and then they just move on to their next project or next exchange their next I see oh yeah in line with what you're saying Tyler I noticed today sitting with one of my clients that this did not happen in okay coin for instance which is a sort of a aside the little spot exchange there was no there was no fake out to the downside they did the fake out to the upside but to the downside there was just nothing price returned to came from and and nobody sold you know I think bit max and crew they take it as far as they can when they do they think with impunity with complete impunity yeah guys honestly I saw someone sent me this article I really forgot who sent it to me I did not read it I do not have the time but it seemed interesting I posted it to one of my groups just to gauge it and the feedback came back positive which is why I'm pulling it up here this is not encouragement to send me more articles I'm telling you guys right now I will not read them because I don't have the time which is hard for people to comprehend but that's the way my current life is I haven't even read ugly old goats recent articles which I hear were pretty good and I'm like three episodes behind on hyper wave so I have a million things to catch up on but go ahead and check this out it's called fake volume and crypto currency markets the February report thank you to whoever sent it to me and all right so that's the short-term look anything else you guys want to say about Bitcoin I don't really have much else to add I'm hoping like GBC didn't seem to go up all that much the premium doesn't seem to be up all that high like nothing as special is going on with gbtc and but I do want to talk a little bit about gold and the stock market I would like to keep this video track under an hour and then maybe we can get some questions I believe Leah's watching shutout yeah and maybe she can text over some questions that we've seen in the live chat I know people have been asking you to take a look at nifty again and Tesla and maybe I'll do that final comments on Bitcoin before we move on to gold and stocks I'm okay I think we've discussed the current chart and there is a Tyler will you say what I'm seeing in the in the one day in the four hour and one-hour chart is that there is an upward trend do you ever look in terms of moving averages do you do you see that as well or what is your your view here you're just thinking that 4200 is gonna be a bit tough right yeah I just think that it'll be a little tough but you're absolutely right on the shorter time timeframes we're beginning to build a little momentum to the upside but every time we've seen that you can just see that the big red bars going back across that as you get up close to that 41 4,200 very heavy selling comes in and drives it right back down again I would expect to see a similar thing tone things that we've got a really good chance of breaking to the upside above the setup trendline and I do not disagree with that particularly since we're ahead of they got above the 128 I'll be very interested to see how this current candle closes though all right what's we actually are gonna get back to Bitcoin there's a possibility Willy was gonna join us in a minute so while I wait for him Gold hasn't done anything this week and that's weird because the S&P did a lot in the last couple of weeks and here the last two weeks of the SNP a giant drop followed by a giant rise while gold didn't do anything relatively speaking so once again I find gold weird I recommend not to trade gold and it looks like a goat was like has been untradable on a long-term basis for years and it's still trying to figure out a direction I remain bearish leaning on gold can't wait for it to go down to the $800 area so I can lean bullish on it for the following decade Tyler quick talk I agree completely we were in it long when we broke above that long-term downtrend line we got out of it on the big one down the red one down simply because of the reversal candle on the green three I don't usually trip paid that short-term particularly with investment accounts what I was hoping for is we'd pulled back down to that trend line that long trend line that goes way way back and then find some kind of support to move up so far that's what we're seeing but I want to see it from the outside not from the inside if we break down below that long-term trend line we're going down big and heavy we'll take out those moving averages and we'll be below 1,100 fairly quickly if we're able to hold here and it's very interesting how the movement of gold in the movement of the stock market have been fairly close and I am very bullish the stock market even though I haven't put my other 50% in I could do it this week I want to see where all the red nines go we'll talk about that in a minute but I could see gold holding in this area and moving up along with this stock market so I am not telling people at this point to short the gold market but I don't want to be in alright gotcha hey Willie would thank you for joining us how you been man let's stretch our audio here hey Willie just click on the arrow next to the microphone select row Mike hey Wooster alright so Wow oh hey we gotcha no man go me okay is that contract Leone thanks so look at you guys how you been I don't know do you want to disclose where you are in the world yeah I'm in almond Austin Texas just arrived wait hold on let me just I know what's happening let me just oh that's better you guys hear me okay that was I just said it'd be bit coming through the YouTube channel yeah no you're better now great yeah I'm in Austin Texas here for the South by Southwest Conference sighs here's where else is there Jimmy song Jimmy song he was doing high collegiate IDM guy and yeah it's nice conference here looking out in the audience it's such a tiny audience so lately different from a couple years even last year and the kind of audiences we were seeing so it was just joking how the bottoms probably end because nobody it just didn't been in block cane this year so it was interesting yeah should have been out in Hong Kong so aetherium had like an event like after the conference right so the conference took all day and then at like 6:30 at night Vitalik spoke and then all of the etherium meetups from around the world spoke like the representative from each meet up from all around the world so there were like three times more people at that event then at the actual conference all day long but there was a crazy amount of people over at the Hong Kong event okay so the one interesting thing that I've seen from South by Southwest and we're gonna talk about on the Law Review Jake Layton was there of this SCC and he said something about stable coins potentially breaking security laws which I'm gonna find very very interesting to discuss with the lawyers well that's big news yeah James and outs of it but that's big news yes there's gonna be interesting for the law show hey so on Bitcoin real quick can I get your two comments on the short-term stuff this Darth Maul candle that took place in a single hour I mean the range of the scandal was like 200 bucks I mean it's nothing new we've seen $200 we've seen $500 range candles in a single day but this one in particular to place to the upside and then to the downside so quick and well I did pull up an article talking about you know how exchanges are you know basically scamming versus their users I and your thoughts on this short-term volatility and hourly charts 10 minute charts 20 minute charts and then we'll get your NVT I bigger picture look yeah at like gravies it's I mean if you look back on the chart by his mulch and candles everywhere you look the the sense second half of 2017 you can just see it on the charts it's it's the the chats are changing we're seeing a lot of these these bats these kind of wicks they see these licks both sides like that more candle and if anyone's been trading particularly on Bitcoin it's really dangerous to put stops and pipe stops if you're not watching it all the time the year it's just rife a little one of the strategies these guys are doing is stop farming so you know they let the buyer wars go they force the price one way they push it past the stops and then they take out my the shorts the Long's and it's it's a way of the gaming it for profit you know like I say it's like trading trading is a it's a game you know and it's strategic game we're not just making bets on where the place is going but these players on the gridiron field pushing that thing around most strategically to look the most money from the retail traders and I don't see there's anything new but yeah I'm like what I do keep an eye on as the manipulation it is ramping up it's been ramping up 20:17 phase and probably the news for me this this month is just considering that they may be manipulating the unchained volume as well yeah going through to that site there's you know a lot of the on chain stuff we're looking at I think I showed you know prior episode I haven't published a lot of this look it's kind of d boot on your show first a few catch the the the kind of accumulation was seeing in the market right now it was quite huge just even the structure of your BPO market is being very different even though a lot of people comparing 2017 to 2014-2018 2014 on the price pitting if you look on chain a lot of changes and there's a lot of little accumulation well shall we look well you mean you need some of the quick on here and this is good it's a priced models the conquest models I can't really show you this stuff because the chat sent life with latest research but you know I did show unchain profiling a while back and it showed how much how much was being whatever a whole bunch of money was bought at much higher prices than any you need before it and so as we've come down off the twenty thousand six thousand was a lot of volume support on chain a lot of people bought it that six thousand range and it held us up and we're now on the three thousand range and guess what you know there's been even double the amount that was bought in the three thousand range on our way up and historically a fee that goes to history we've probably got double the volume that we need a trade within the three thousand been before three thousands ready to go and it's taken us four to five months to get to here if that gives us about form to five months of time and the three thousands then I would say that's enough time for the value and when I save I own chain think of new people investing huddle is scooping up and locking it up and buying for the next cycle so we're waiting for those figures to get so maybe jump into down below but Junkin to momentum the coin momentum sorry done a little bit lower under placement chats Network no momentum just under in vrv on the left a little bit left a little bit lower lower lower fifth sixth one down yeah and Phillips with click this viewer first on Twitter and you can see like we've seen this chat before right it's you can see the amount of investment volume so this is the the amount of bitcoins the sheer amount of bitcoins being moved on chain over a long time span you can see that the investment volume needs to ramp up to too soon or we we end this the sort of downtrend and we see it up the next bull and you can see that we're at this believable right now on the right there the level is currently looking willing the beer market and we need that to ramp up before we in the beer then we start the bull and what I am thinking is maybe the arm chain value maybe being gamed the since 2017 second half we've seen a lot of manipulation on the exchanges but furthermore I'm seeing a divergence on Unchained volume which is estimated by blockchain infocomm I guess they're called now and or so Nick Carter's estimates at coin Mitch now these netkar is the first to publish his on chain matrix it's very open it's done on like a 4-hour filter or a fini anything's hopping with less than four hours then it's not countered if it's circular it's not counted these heuristics they're there you're filtering out too to get to an estimate on what the real volume is now because they're oh can I and if I was say a very large player like a you know even a Goldman Sachs or something and you wanted to accumulate some of the coin to the in viata have the control over that market then I would be employing Mike wants to be manipulating on on the exchanges in on chain and the thing is what we're seeing right now is that there's so many of these on chain metrics that are showing that the bottom looks like it's it may be in but the anything based on volume is disagreeing it's bearish and what I've done is I've started to do a different type of on chain volume estimate that is not yet public and so it can't be gained right and the the deviation started at par for 2017 same time when the exchange volume started deviate so I'm a little bit conspiracist right now but at least it's based on some some data that there's something going on with Unchained volume that's not not legit met pipette perhaps in and the the outcome means that we think if he thinks more bearish than it is the other thing is there I've just recently done on chain on balance volume so real value moving between investors as the price goes up and down as you all know as traders they obv picks up hidden accumulation or divestment there isn't being shown on the price chart and the structure of this beer market is completely different from the last one every beer market were paired where any two prior ones with PLAs goes down OPP goes down Christ going down people at divesting sir but this luck this one we've had as interesting as obv as flat as price retraced 85% though that I'm like whoa this one is about accumulation even the prices retracing and the market dynamics like we saw from 6,000 to 3,000 there was a huge manipulation the market in my terms there there was a lot of by wall shaping that kept there at 6,000 level to the point where people thought that was ready to pop in the accumulation was in and then they let it go and we we over corrected in when we went down into the 3,000 low 3,000 it was an immense volume you can even see it on that chat right in front of us look that spike huge amounts accumulation as this thing over corrected and so I was looking at this sounds like we're in a controlled market most likely there's a lot of accumulation happening and I'm very wary of this market right now if if we go to maybe the the twice models again we're all backwards yeah the second from the top yeah you can go back as well to see I think the one to watch right now if you screw it was right yup great if see the orange line orange like we can make that clearer but you can click the legend oh well that down below and turn off the MV t curves you can just cut them and that'll turn those traces I'll fix you can to no bunch of them off so consuming on there just the orange line now the orange line is realized value realized based on realized capitalization that's the one in the corridor popularized yeah yeah yeah Queen matrix is affixed to create that and based on yeah is it now just to to say what it is this is the the average price the entire market bought their bitcoins for at any given time and you can see back in 2015 that the acted very strongly as a support zone when we're in the cumulation bottom you see the two touches before the third time well you meant resistance zone yeah that's a resistance there and it touched again and later half of 2015 right and so whilst do it already once yeah we've got close but it's not quite the a year and that's a thing I'm watching I think I I heard Tyler talk about that's twenty to thirty twenty three hundred band then he's broken it just so happens also realized value resistance which was shown and the 2015 so I could be a very strong resistance band now that breaks through all bets are off for me this that completely changes everything compute like we've been doing a lot of the cycling back to the 2014-15 cycle thinking you know history is repeating even though I'm seeing the structure can be underlying structure iron chain has been completely different now if we break through this and with the amount accumulation I'm seeing on this down phase from 85% retrace I don't know I don't know if you know as a trader you'd think okay we go to 6,000 we hit there we come back down but to me if we break through there and we go up and test the 6,000 we're going to come back down and likely test this realize value which previous resistance become support and that's gonna create a relatively choppy over the long term chart but completely different it's like we're now in the up market and accumulation finished and it would be a little bit more like the shape of the chat you saw in 2011 if you if you drag your cursor on 2014 and move that I know hit the Zoom Out button on the top right that my – yep there you go it doesn't quite do it okay drag the y-axis you know how to do it yeah you can see it there 2011 you can see there was the accumulation bottom that almost you could say it was a capitulation but you can you put your cursor on the 2011 zone yeah and see sorry 20 mid 22 tails when you live in before 2012 yeah and go home now I can zoom how I'm using my life yeah there you go uses drag drag drag it like a window to zoom into it it's okay it's so so you can go yeah drag oh my god I gotcha well there guys there you go alright so hover over 2012 and Dec up a few months right so we're talking about the end of the first beer market in Bitcoin where we just the low a hundred vaccine we can retrace down to what was at five six dollars and that was the accumulations when you live in you know everyone's looking at history history repeats look at 2014 but look at that where we we we we accumulated we accumulated way below double double double touch there and then we shot past realized kept resistance and then we stand on there and we drove the next bull market and so there is precedence of that type of behavior and if we break relays kick resistance now for me it's all bits off yeah like I saw a lot of accumulation on pain a lot of guys I think institutional hidden players scooping up Queens like we never seen before ever in the 10-year history of these markets and that's a lot of coin to scoop up and maybe that's enough to put the accumulation to an end so my thinking right now a lot of things have changed for me I am 66 percent Atticus they're the bottoms and 33% will this three thousand breaks I am not so confident of being bearish anymore and it's just on chain work not looking at the technical technical but even if I had looked at the technicals we are actually on the lower end of the extreme on the long-term charts if you were to price how far out from the if you drop by the price on a log chat like we normally do and you do log price on the time a lot log on the time so the time has been compressed it creates a very much a straight line and it Wiggles up and down around that straight line and were at almost at the ends historically of how far out of the standard deviation standard band of mood motion and they it's just price price across time without looking at on chain movements and so historically were very close to where we can get on the low end and so this kind of goes back to a few or a few months ago or a few weeks ago while I was a non-comic we had a show and I think you posted the Nasdaq is one hyper wave it didn't complete and we talked about the you buying the nares deck in the 90s was buying into the adoption of the internet and you know guess what bitcoin has the same is option is curve so with this fundamental experience incoming capital is adoption increases and on top of there I see that we've got a market dynamic which is these ripples in the bull via market and if you take it's like a wave on top of a way if this curve wave and then we ripple on top of the second ripple is what we tend to think of as a market and we kind of lose sight it there's a base curve that is growing as we go from nobody to one cusine this discourse right now is around 1% maybe three percent of the world population only Bitcoin that's increasing at a rate of a doubling over the long-term these are doubling every 12 months so you know if everything follows like most adoption because were takes about maybe it'll take will have taken 10 years to get to 1 percent the next 10 years will take us beyond 50 percent of the world population and so whenever we look at these markets think oh it's going up it's going down don't forget that there's a space curve of 1% of the world being in it to 50% or more of the world being in it over the next decade and they excuse all of these these price charts hey will how are you doing will I love it when you hey so when you talk I really love it because you sketch a narrative going over time and you you're talking about the price you're talking about the unchained volume and I must back up what you say you know this comparing this fair market 2014 is a bad idea because as we see in the chart right there from the left to the right you can count 5 this thing wave and not drug keep the spin the same record every time I will just mention the last one that is the completion of an Elliott Wave sequence not of some theory or some kind of a mystical you know your revelation any market even if you look in the first in the very first wave during 2011 you and count five waves up to that market peak when it corrected then you can count five waves up to 2013 may or was that March high and then a fifth wave that just is uncountable in up to the November 20 2013 high because it was so energetic and this is a logarithmic chart right so after five waves from left to right we must have an equivalent three waves in decline to the market bottom and what he described is what we discussed and he showed me this chart in Bundang when we three were there and it was immediately clear to be sorry for my neighbor it was immediately clear to me that yes there is a cumulation going on and this makes sense proportion-wise that bitcoin should now advance not to a new high but in a massive bear trap let me rephrase that in a massive bull trap in a bear market rally according to Tyler's hyper wave this this this bear market rally could take us in in in a Phase six either to six thousand and Tyler saying that's going to be tough and I believe him but if the Arashi irrationality becomes if it starts fizzing and it becomes too exuberant we might even see a new all-time high based on on on a bear market rally that's not out of the question so yeah will I agree with you there's not much reason to be to be bearish right now all the indications are that there's a move to the upside the question is just how far and I don't put a limit on it I think that 25,000 is possible if the market goes full retard and stupid enough and you're just to you know affirm your work your work is technical analysis and Willie anything to add on to benzene other than that I have a question I can throw at you okay I just say that I'm not so extreme with that price to movement that I do think most probable price trajectory is to bounce off 4,300 if not even Ilion I'm still thinking that we need to retest the the bottom zone around the lower three mid three thousands for some time but yeah right so that was gonna be my question to you because if I throw screenshare back on and you're starting to compare the current market more to the 2011 bear market the 2011 bear market lasted into 2013 that was a two plus year accumulation closer to the lows than to the highs so does this mean if you know law if you're now leaning towards the low in price being mad does that mean you're now extending the accumulation zone so it's not like we're gonna go up any sooner in fact if you compare 2011 bear market to the 2014 bear market we bottomed out all up earlier in the time cycle but it took us longer like relatively speaking to break the new highs so does this mean we may be accumulating into the having your thoughts on that yet I guess it's just a matter of definition you know that two years you could also say there was a it was a significant rise we're looking on a large hat but if you look at sheer numbers what I went from ten dollars into maybe fifty dollars over those two years it's like a 5x so I would have classified that as yes this accumulation these usually an accumulation going on it on a on a ball run I would say that that's really the style of a bull run and what happened was we had a very compressed accumulation and 2011 that little double bottom dip if you looked at it there on chain you'll see that the volume of coins moving between ha dollars went through the roof we absolutely through the roof you can change this to another you could maybe go to the momentum chart again which is the share bitcoins moving between investors and we can see this one probably doesn't show as clearly because I'm trying to filter it out violent movements but if you look at the brown spikes underneath it it went absolutely through the roof a little bit to the left yep oh look where the dippers a double bottom of the 20 later yeah you can see those brown spikes going way off on the trick tree you can see on the on the orange line it's on the leaf Texas we're looking at on chain daily volume you can see how high that goes and so the ridiculously high ridiculously and a lot of my filters they're trying to filter out outliers but a sustained one maybe go to NV T as well I think let's go to the MDT each other it might be easier to see it on bitch and the ratio or the signal the the ratio so you see that one puts in perspective see that in the massive Tiffany VT ratio that is unseen accumulation ever Oh so let me just finish on that one because the amount of accumulation was so extreme on chain there really shortened the the accumulation phase in my mind if I was to say that was the accumulation phase and we had a very tight accumulation phase and what you were making the sort of two years or one year extra is more bull and that would mean that what we've seen down in the 3,000 if it's correct as we're having it's not that extreme but we're having decent accumulation the reason why MVT looks so high right now this goes to my kind of somewhat conspiracists thinking that maybe the vines being gained because I've got another estimate of volume that's based on huddling there is showing that it's it's actually sufficient right now to be the end of the the end of the beer and already in the accumulation I will know that was great that was good information are the only thing I will just like remind people of 2012 was probably the most manipulated price period in Bitcoin history more so than today and that's because though one of the reasons why the 2012 had such a stable price relatively speaking yes it probably moved about four or five acts from $2 to $5 is because of Bitcoin savings and Trust and Travon shavers out of Texas where you are right now Willy and because he was basically the Federal Reserve of Bitcoin giving out Bitcoin loans and then controlling the price of Bitcoin because he had approximately a hundred thousand Bitcoin she was actively trading with to maintain price stability of Bitcoin in order to get paid back on Bitcoin denominated loans so that could have contributed to the somewhat stability of Bitcoin during the 2012 period into 2013 when it kind of all got away from them i 100% agree with it I'm gonna smash you over a chart that is unpublished I don't know if you can pull it up I'm gonna send it to you private message do it see that this is just to go with data what you were saying a little smaller we can zoom in on that there you go so what are we looking at here oh well I'm seeing it on that I'm not seeing it on give me a second here that was my bad there you go okay so what you see is the polite way outside of the price the upper line the third more reddish line right that's the price what's the red line this is what I call this particular speculators ratio that's a ratio of what volume is being played on the exchanges versus the volume moving unchanged so they'll remember they may think about this is um a Hodler or a trader I will see in my coins into the exchanges at certain times and so the ratio shows you how much short Tunes price speculation that's happening the amount of money moving to and from the exchanges versus the amount of money traded on the exchange as the orangish line now the line underneath it is the volatility of price now when do you trade more on exchange then the normal when the volatility is high and you can see that the to track each other mostly except in the 2012 range when the whole on chain on exchange manipulation games were being played and the summer of 2017 you see that ramped up that's only me a new animal has arrived their animal was playing with the price of Bitcoin like a little mouse and my estimates is there's about probably 300 million dollars of you know sitting in on on exchanges pushing the price around most likely well I'm almost definitely sure this money is on bit mix it's around 90% plus of the volume is on bit next pushing the price around and so we don't know who that person is whether it's multiple huge fan but this is the raw rice that the quant based hedge funds playing via games the strategic roboticized games early in the 2012 was yeah was it the Quin savings loans and he needed to keep the prices hidden levels so he wouldn't get defaults on his loans so he had enough bitcoins to to just price floors and you you see that all over the chat with those early deviations and so no interesting to me is where you see the deviation and 2017 it started right here I find it fascinating that the entire 2014 bear market was so orderly would these be between these two ratios and now it's been like well it's getting a little closer but still like there was some interesting things in that zone right and we're do you think it started in there 2015 it you know that first blip that got us out of the beer market was a Chinese email in skiing mmm yeah the trip alone actually was more Russian in Nigeria but yeah China was kind of involved too and then there was the ear of China Chinese mucking around with price this is this lines filtering out a lot of track it doesn't include the Chinese exchanges so you know what we may we may be dealing with this until another bound cocks hammer drops and I can see like like another mount GOx but like happening across all of the exchanges because again if you hold your Bitcoin you have nothing to worry about and I think sooner or later something is gonna hit the fan here because you're right they need to reset these are they need to or it could be a little bit like what I guess happens in forex markets is that they don't resi it and we have a controlled market and that's when i think about it that's probably more likely i don't think the markets of this world is the Organic I think the largest funds hedge funds play this game and so were what that's what worries me is that Bitcoin as it grows from its current sixty billion to the multi trillion it needs to be a macro asset worthy and beckoned the standard game of being a controlled market but you know just also I wanted to touch on that deviation where it's that you kind of like it starts a comeback down starts recently and second half 2017 and remember and the first half of 2017 it was all about the Winklevoss ETF and then we had what I hate surmises the the the smart independent money reading in the Wall Street Journal are these the coin and it's I thought it was drug money I thought as money laundering and now that doing an ETF we had a whole bunch of people that I used to market started to review Bitcoin as being a financial instrument without being a piece of drug money and you know if I find it interesting there in the tale into 2017 you start to see this sort of manipulation go on were very sophisticated traders using very sophisticated means to manipulate their price and what what I'm also seeing is the unchained volume saying to deviate at the same time and that was the surprising thing for me that they would go as far as the militant emulate on chained I'm not 100% sure maybe that's a bit conspiracist but I'm seeing something really weird and the data from 2017 seeking half onwards all right cool hey man thanks for all that info I have to keep this video under two hours only because I don't have time to deal with all the people that are saying we're the first missing 20 minutes because YouTube only renders in two hour increments so to save myself you know answering you know the same question 100 times answer you just on the two hours and I do want to get to the SF even punch it a little bit and maybe a couple of stocks Tyler you've been quiet the whole time anything you want to mention on all of I mean I am having a problem processing all the info Willie said I mean it could be ten days of partying Hong Kong plus a 14-hour flight I just came off of so that could that could be that those would be contributing also I haven't eaten in about thirty five plus hours but on anything you want to add Tyler and then anything else on Bitcoin Willy but feel free to stick around I'm gonna have to stick out of here I'm gonna check out of this hotel and get on my flights but um so that's very timely but I'm great jumping on and seeing you guys there and I'll catch you on the next class see you well he greets that really really fascinating stuff I loved it yeah Thank You Willy all right catch you later don't eat we'll all right Tyler quick thoughts and then we go to traditional markets yeah I'd like everything that Willy and benzene have said here and I'm very conflicted I'm conflicted because I have asserted since I first got into this space that I think the infrastructure is so corrupt that I would never buy Bitcoin on any exchange and that's why I turn to gbtc I haven't seen anything to dissuade me from that one of the reasons I'm going to malta is I want to hear the best in the world explain to dummies like me on a technical basis why I'm wrong about every aspect of the infrastructure of cryptocurrency and I'm hoping to come away from that conference with more confidence in what is going on but what I just saw from Willy has got me thinking that I'd been right all along that there is just constant manipulation you can't believe any of the miners you can't believe any of the hash rates you can't believe any of the volume you believe any of the transactions you can't you you are going to be taken to the cleaners by huge money individuals that have figured out a way to completely corrupt this system and because of that until we see a huge drop in the number of crypto projects I can't buy into any of the bullish narratives of the price being able to go up and I will I'm sticking with my my views that we've got a long way to go to the downside I'm not very interested in the intermediate term little pops because I know those can be manipulated I don't believe the long term trends of supply and demand can be manipulated they're simply too big and too powerful and once we're we finally get to where we're going to go because we've washed out all of this nonsense then we'll be ready to see some very big numbers in Bitcoin not in the other Kryptos so you cannot jump in a little bit there Thank You Tyler Tyler not that I can educate you other than that I can speak and I'm sure that phone will sort of echo these same sentiments is that when we look at the price chart it's one thing this is a speculative highly emotional I watched the show by Elliott Wave international and they were saying this is by far the most emotion they've ever seen in a chart and I guess that's exemplified by the price movements we see right because as a Forex trader and commodities trader back in 2013 when when Bitcoin he came into focus to me I was like this is what I want to trade because this is incredible movement you know when there is you want to be part of that you can fire 50 shots and and and the one that sticks is gonna get you into a tremendous rally this is this the price speculative aspect and and here I have to disagree well and I don't want to disagree with really woo because I will is making very compelling evidence that there are strange forces at work and that the balance between the exchange price and and what's happening on chain and that sometimes it disconnects and and tone explain that very well for the 2011-2012 period this is strange but in a sense it is still completely organic because it follows the Elliott Wave pattern completely now I'm not talking about using a reed wave predictably I'm talking about using Elliott Wave in the hind side where you measure the ratio between bottom and top and the correction of it and then the next top and bottom and the ratio is a picture-perfect even though it's crazy even though it doesn't make sense even though the distances are unprecedented in the history of markets we're looking at perfect Elliott Wave extensions to the upside and retracements to the downside and when I say extension I mean bind by number not necessarily 1.618 but but you know 1 3 5 8 13 21 40 are you gonna be 50 for these numbers are playing out in the chart like perfect each top each retracement and almost 90 percent on the major correction so that is that is and that is a sign that we are looking at an organic market that it is almost too organic and and this makes sense because a lead wave talks about emotion and and collective psychology right and if everyone is seeking a new way forward everyone is seeking and they sound money a way that is uncommon scalable ay-ay-ay manner in which the governance is correct then bitcoin is playing out perfectly Willy's analysis seems to show that there is other forces at work but I want to come back to the point of governance and this is where tone will back me up besides the expert be really be speculation aspect the fundamentals of Bitcoin are so solid that one can say with 99.9% confidence that Bitcoin is not on a race to zero in the long term but on a race to a hundred thousand and a million and ten million purely by its fundamentals its fundamental strength and the strength of the governance model that takes Bitcoin development forward and that's why I would say to somebody who who bought at 15,000 or both at nineteen thousand six hundred whatever that top was that even that wasn't a bad decision even buying the top in Bitcoin in the long run is not going to make you a bag holder yet Tyler I know for sure because you've seen it the same thing I've seen in moving averages we know when a bear market is over and we know when a bull market is begun and this is not the beginning of a bull market in Bitcoin it is still a bear market and it's I whatever stupidity price does to the upside Willy's gonna tell us about it Tony's gonna see nines and you and me are gonna see it in the in the moving averages right that that's what I wanted to say just to give you that confidence that we not to give you that confidence I don't mean to educate you I mean to say that bitcoin is on an upward trajectory not done with in the long run and it can coexist with any other money stupid money and money and with other cryptocurrency cryptocurrencies that people believe in that actually have no fundamental value they can coexist yeah I meet myself because it's noisy where I am yeah invent then and I'm not known as you left off I was just about to say it like if Bitcoin is so manipulated as you guys say it is I have a slightly different view on at all what does that mean for all the other Kryptos because all the I because unlike Bitcoin all the other Kryptos are also being manipulated from the code perspective because they're not decentralized but on the flip side the financial institutions don't give a shit about all of them maybe aetherium because they've somehow been fooled into thinking that code bases in manipulated right so one of the reasons why Wall Street is capable or one of the reasons why Wall Street is entertaining the idea of manipulating the price of Bitcoin is because they're probably know that we can manipulate the price of Bitcoin because there isn't a greater level of manipulation on the code base that will screw us so that means this is another reason this is what gives me even more confidence the fact that Wall Street or these billionaires there's always in a bigger whale the fact that they have the confidence to manipulate the price of Bitcoin means that they have the confidence that the underlying code isn't going to be manipulated from under them and that is enormous ly bullish for Bitcoin long-term absolutely well you say that really well if you can just cut from the beginning that that statement to the end and put that up by itself that's a magnanimous statement because it shows you how certain people can see this thing is a rising market a permanent feature of the world economy or sure yeah Pilar I agree completely that's very well said and one of the reasons I wrote the medium article the long and winding road to 10 million 5 10 million dollar Bitcoin was exactly what Vincent said and what you said that's what attracted me to this area I don't think it's inevitable though because I think a lot of other things can get in the way and we're seeing one of them getting the way right now which is all this other nonsense and that's why we're in a bear market we're not in a bear market for Bitcoin because there's anything wrong with Bitcoin we're in a bear market for all the Kryptos and that means that a lot of people that don't have the understanding of the difference between the two are putting Bitcoin in that same area but so great points by everybody and then Zen don't ever worry about schooling me because that's what I'm all about I love learning from people that know things more than I do about various subjects so thank you very much all right I'm not note let's take a look at the S&P 500 now I covered it in my last video and it's the weekend there's really not much else to say about it other than I I mean I could not be it like I said in my last video something you almost never hear me say I am bullish holding us in PE into the weekend and the the weekly chart is on a nine like that is something I've almost never said and I think one of the reasons is which I didn't even know but Tyler like in our five minutes before we went live Tyler said that somebody had posted a whole slew of significant stocks that all actually turned on a nine because many of the stocks that started this rally they are kicked off because the differ between this FINA red 6 and this being a weekly price flip was so freaking small because the close of the SNP at the week of December 10th was $25.99 95 so basically 26 flat and the closing here I'm sorry not even to a sorry $25.99 95 right and this was 25 96 so the difference was just a measly four points on the S&P so that means the majority of the big name stocks would have kicked off they are sequential a week earlier and that makes complete sense as to why the S&P had this monster turn on candle number eight now I've been too busy and I wasn't looking at stocks for the last two or three weeks with all my travel so I had no idea so many stocks of critical performance hit their nines one week earlier because we're dealing with weekly charts this makes so much more sense so when I say that Wow this is for the first time ever I would hold the S&P I on a weekly nine into the weekend that's because if I start looking through the significant stocks that cause this weird action I would be bullish as held those individual start so we don't have time to go through those stocks but maybe something you want to say here at Tyler but on actually I'm not going to look at this but and I'm sure you saw what I said about bowing the other day its daily and weekly chart I don't want to revisit that part and people have been asking me for Tesla so maybe I can glance a Tesla real quick or and then I will glance at the Nifty as a favor since I just came back from India but on let me look at Tesla and then I'll get your thoughts on both Tesla and S&P unfortunately asking has loose your fifth one down I can't really find regular it found it um oh I didn't expect it to be bearish so it's not actually bearish remains in a multi-year consolidation because Tesla is in this you know I they haven't really like the hype of Tesla remains bigger than anything Tesla has actually done but they are always on the verge they're always on the verge of doing something like some kind of a mass adoption I think Tesla is still gonna do great and big things so I would be considered I would be considering picking up Tesla off the moving average here whatever moving average that is looks like it's the 200 because this 200-day moving average has been very very good to Tesla this is a 200 week moving average I can hop over to the daily chart and the daily chart is unfortunately in a very bearish posture so I will take back everything I just said about Tesla from a weekly perspective and I would not be picking up Tesla here I would wait for it the price flip and get above some of these moving averages so while from a weekly chart it looks like it like like it's you know like a higher low for the third time the daily chart on Tesla is scary I would not be a pool of Tesla at the moment Tyler your thoughts yeah I've been playing Tesla long and short I had bought it at 275 and just sold it two days ago at 293 before this last drop and I am thinking of getting it here except for what tone just said the daily looks horrible concent CEO is fully negative on the daily he I do expect this long-term moving average to hold but it might be several weeks as long as we can hold above the green dot and setup trendline I will be bullish but I think we're in several weeks from now I want to see it figure out where it wants to go yeah like for me it looks like a nice rolling but like I'm looking at the sequential here on our weekly scale and this is just not that great though buying it on a nine right here right at the setup trendline would have been absolutely perfect selling it on the sequential 30 would have been perfect and right here it was a nine that failed I would stay away from Tesla at this moment in time the nifty however is looking beautiful you just had a to go above the one approaching new all-time highs so I am a bullish than ft and I would have been bullish the nifty as of this to breaking the one now this also happened a couple of weeks ago and then we had a million price flips in a row this is actually kind of crazy but right now I am pretty bullish nifty so whatever India is doing seems to be doing well let me glance at the daily chart to make sure we're not on a nine on a Friday and guess what we are so yeah so that means if you were bullish nifty you should not be holding nifty into the weekend unlike the S&P so I would be out of nifty for the weekend I would wait a couple of days and if it can I would like watch this or one to four candle pullback now the fact that we broke setup trendline on a nifty is very very bullish I have a lot of confidence that this 9 is a bullish advancing 9 and this is what I would do if I do start this TD sequential notification service you would get you know an alert with a screenshot that this 9 has occurred but then for a premium subscription you would get my commentary on what does this 9 mean to me and what this 9 means to me is a 1 to 4 candle correction on a daily chart potentially as low as the moving average potentially as low as the old set up trendline for one to four candles as of Monday but then accelerating to the upside into the countdown phase to 13 to the upside which would be in line with you know up to five more weeks of upside sorry up to seven more weeks of upside and challenging new all-time highs so that would be the kind of commentary you would get from the premium service on what does that nine mean to me I think that's it guys I think we need to go everyone everyone is commenting that tone is drunk no tone can be drunk because tone just got off a 13 hour flight from Hong Kong and it's two o'clock in the afternoon I will agree that I think a larger amount than a normal human but not not at this hour and it shows you the power of observation of the troll box right I have been sitting yeah in absolute heat I've drunk about like five bottles of beer during the whole day and nobody observed that I'm the drunk on the show you know they probably fingered you the guy that's like sober and tired so how does that work yeah I'm still dodo however I'm still detoxing from from Hong Kong so that's great all right guys we do need to end it here unfortunately and I will just finish up with understanding Bitcoin and Malta please come out and support I am looking into watch the cost of live streaming this event live-streaming costs are very expensive so we do want to bring you a high quality stream I know that people always complain about audio and video and if you guys think it's so easy you should try to do it and yeah please check it out it's gonna be great I can't wait to be in Malta meet up me meet all these smart people and learn from them how to set up Bitcoin nodes and lightning and satellites and all the rest any final thoughts last statement I'm gonna end screen share and oh by the way sorry one more I head on over to Tom bass calm if you want to support my work please go to the affiliate section and sign up a trading view sign up for VPNs if you're gonna come to the cruise and hang out with well I think that one will be just me now please use this link and of course if you're gonna do some Amazon shopping I really need to upgrade all my tech I will be doing at the summer and you will have a lot more links all right I'm gonna end screen share fans and final thoughts from you tone by the way if you do that alert service with teeny sequential I would definitely subscribe to it because a lot of times calls that I make coincide with what your your indicate is saying right so that'll be great I encourage you to do that I'd certainly subscribe and and and have those updates daily rather than wait for a video or whatever I just glanced like what what is your assessment right people can subscribe to my website I said that there was only three days left I've left it open because it's a bear market there's very slow uptake you go to trade dot cryptocurrency net and the website will guide you through the process and going forward good luck with that multiple first man that's probably the conference that I most wanted to attend and I will attend it next year because I can't this yeah yeah Adam back Giacomo you know everyone that matters will be there tile are you going I am going and leave this is going to be there at least moderating I'm Rick really look forward to it I'm gonna take a million notes just sit there and listen and so I'm really looking forward to that Lee and I have the nether hyper wave workshop coming up a week from today it's a two day of Fair Saturday and Sunday that people can go to our website lucid investment strategies calm it's only going to be about trading hyper waves not about hypo in theory we're going to show with a lot of current hyper waves that are going on along with Socrates who has joined us as an analyst and as finding a lot of ways of trading hyper waves that are current so anybody that wants to join us I think it's gonna be terrific and tone thank you very much I can't wait to see you in Malta oh yeah no that'd be great and yeah you can check out the webinars over on lucid investment strategies dot-com and yeah so I I know I watched the hyper wave one are you doing it again yeah but this one's a little different we we did one of course that unconfessed a table which was a basic and then we we talked more about current hyper waves in the second one we did which was about three weeks ago now we're doing a third one that's all just on trading trading technique using options and futures as well as inverse funds against a lot of current hyper waves you need a strong understanding of hyper waves but you should be able to follow along with what we're gonna do so yeah I am I'm looking to do my very first webinar on introduction to options I'm gonna make it a 2-day webinar and because I do consider myself an options I guess expert foremost I like like of everything of everything in my trading all my analysis every if you combine everything that I've ever said on this podcast I still think that what I do with options which I'm not actually going to teach unfortunately because there's too many trade secrets involved but it's my options knowledge that is above the rest so I am considering teaching intro to options this summer but I have I'm not a hundred percent sure I want to do that just because I know myself and I wanna accidentally give away something that's that that's basically gonna eventually I'm just gonna do again in the future some of the things that I created 10 years ago are still could be enormous ly profitable but I'm I am considering doing a full detailed introduction to options this summer we will see how that goes on a webinar and it's gonna be expensive guys it'll probably be more than what Tyler was charging for hyper wave and because it's just not something I it's not it's not the knowledge I really want to give away but there's always a price limit for everything but I yeah yeah great thank you very much good you see it ends at good to see you Tyler thank you Tony look forward to the next one all right thank you guys thank you for coming on and we'll see everybody on the next one

46 thoughts on “Trading Bitcoin w/ Tyler, Venzen & Willy – BTC Back Over $4k”

  1. Lately, when asked for predictions about bitcoin and cryptos generally, most experts on youtube and other media, predictions are mostly generic with no specifics on the direction. Everyone seems to be guessing and getting even more confused about the future. The only constant thing I can say for sure is that the traders are actually earning good returns while HODlers are always concerned about what the future holds for bitcoin or if there is even a future at all. With the insight, skills, and experience of a trader like Mr. Paul Bradely, the sky is the limit. I came to this realization when I made a return on investment of over 300% in my first month using his signals for my trades. I have not seen strategies as specific as his or signals that accurate. His contacts details are * * (paulbradely1 @ Gmail. com) WhatsApp***+447480724121. and you can always ask whatever you may want to know about consistently making a profit as a beginner or advanced trader. A rule of thumb is, never get emotional with your coins as the eventual goal if we are truthful to ourselves is to make a profit.

  2. try www . bitbinn . com staring $50-$250 in 24hrs, now am making good returns thanks for the info tw026329 at gmail dot com Tom J. Wilson

  3. There is fake volume and fake trades and bots.
    Price pumps or dumps at the time of futures expiration and this is the only market you can legally manipulate.
    But there is no manipulation and all other blockchains are scams. Ok.
    When $1k?

  4. You listened to Tone Vays and it didnt buy Bitcoin in this downturn cause he told you we go much lower? He doesnt give a sht, cause he gets paid in Bitcoin! Think, Joe Average, THINK and draw your conclusions!

  5. When are you gonna use this amazing invention called earphones with incorporated microphones? Audio really sucks ffs The whole thing is so amateur

  6. everything that matters is conspiracy and manipulation.
    CIA Document 1035-960; "conspiracy theorist" term was weaponized to marginalize/ridicule anything challenging the official narrative.

    http://gaylenixjackson.com/Research/CIA-Memo-Warren-Commission.pdf

  7. Excellent, guys. A great educated, challenging, discussion and debate. Very insightful even for a small retail investor like myself. I have the highest respect for the respect that you have for each other.

  8. @tone @tyler with regards to the s&p look at bonds performing well along side the stock market performing well… Fishy

  9. Wishful thinking tyler.. As much as most of us would love for the shitcoins to disappear there will always be another shitcoin to take it's place

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  11. Maybe Btc forming some kind of falling wedge. If we reach 4200 i agree to expect a breakout. But earlier this year i was very sure we have to see new yearly lows. So i am little confused now. But the decision is very very close. That we have the little pump befor starting the week on monday is maybe a bad sign.

  12. Here’s the article about fake volume https://medium.com/crypto-integrity/fake-volumes-in-cryptocurrency-markets-february-report-fec9329f1f98

  13. Maybe Sophia entered the arena and starts using Bitcoin to learn more from the chatter of how people operate.

    The future of programming is to understand the rewards function.

  14. Tone these videos with you, Willy and Tyler are so interesting. Thank you for setting it up.

    I really enjoyed Willy’s analysis. It’s so different from anyone else’s.

  15. Everyone. If we are not manipulated, if the market will get regulated in a matter that all is predictable like you want Tyler. It will not be Bitcoin anymore. You just want to make it so, that you make money out of it. Just let it get manipulated and free. If you want it buy it. Not just some derivative…

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