Trading Bitcoin w/ Leah Wald – Rejection at Trendline, now what?



hi this is trading Bitcoin I'm Leah tone bayes's back so let's get to this price action tone how's it going hey guys I'm back back in my New York apartment got my computer running it actually works much better in my apartment than on the road I fully understand why now let's not talk about that and so maybe I won't have as many problems over the next two weeks of travel but then I still need to resolve the issue like permanent damage to my computer has been already done I'd be very careful with aftermarket chargers it's pretty much how I like that that's pretty much how I managed to destroy a $2,500 computer in six months but uh anyway so it already shut down I mean twice today but it's still way more stable than it was last like 72 hours anyway alright let's get right into the price action in a minute because I have another podcast to be out I'm gonna be on the noted podcast with Pierre and I bit Stein it's supposed to be really really good that's gonna be on the top of the hour I have no idea if it's live or not I I just like do everything quickly all right let's go to screen share and I'm only home for 24 hours and I'm off to Toronto anyway I'll talk about that okay ah screen share where am i and live viewers Leah see if you have any good questions if you want to interrupt me anytime you're always welcome great all right please check out the learn trading section of my website my website is gonna be redone soon and by soon I mean this year and hopefully it won't look like it's from like from 2002 but I'm working on that so please check out the learn trading section all these links are very useful I have a I have a bit of a focus on section 6 all the stuff that has to do with Tom Demark and the sequential indicators that's what I focus on if all my free information including these videos are not enough please check out the consulting section of my website and for those that absolutely want to see me in person which I do encourage are the austin seminar went pretty well uh everyone seems to have enjoyed it that one needs to come off we have Toronto coming up and Miami Toronto is starting to fill up I got a update these seats Miami is actually Fort Lauderdale now only because I'm tired of big cities and yeah there's gonna be something going on probably I'm gonna do all of these this summer London Dublin Montreal and Philly may or may not do New York so look out for those and I'm gonna work on Vegas as well so I DS I'm I'm gonna start working on these very very soon all right let's uh let's jump to the price we are looking at the weekly chart now earlier I know when you and Tyler was streaming lis I yesterday the price was literally at its peak of 8400 and I just watched that hyper wave episode this morning and Tyler was very cautious on the bullish trend as well because he was looking at the same trend line that I am and I'm not surprised at all that were being rejected off of this trend line now as you can see by this weekly chart we have broken the count down to a nine now some may think this is a good thing I don't think this is a good thing because if we start another count we can repeat it look I was very disappointed that we didn't make it to a nine reversal the first time around and the count got flipped after a seven then we started off a brand new count and for the majority of this candle last week we were still looking at a red five which would have set us up beautifully for a nine in four weeks because we broke this count this is yet another it's definitely not a bullish sign uh it's a potential bearish sign to a neutral sign because now we can kick off a brand-new count to a nine and if that count gets broken you get into this bit of a death spiral so I am NOT very optimistic the start of this week is not is already not good it's only been about not even 24 hours but let's see how it ends I mean I want to see some monster strength before I changed my mind so right now your best-case scenario best-case scenario on a weekly timescale is on neutral that is your absolute best case and and I'm still leading bearish off of this rejection all right ah daily daily is the interesting one I I do because of my computer issues the last couple of days and with my seminar and hanging out in Austin I didn't realize there was a nine coming but I really hope my clients did I really really do otherwise that they've wasted their money on my education so you had a combination of a nine and the 50-day moving average I mean the technical analysis doesn't make it any easier for you to find a time to take your profit assuming you made money on this bullish move now this is not a great indication to go full-out short but it's reasonable enough that if you short it off of this nine it's reasonable and if you get a price flip next candle you can add to that bearish position and if you get a price and if you get a two below one you can add to that bearish position let's zoom this out now the daily chart is getting very slaughtered and very very complicated mostly because my MACD seems to have disappeared so mostly because these trend lines can be drawn in so many different ways it looks like I've adjusted this trendline though I'm not sure exactly how I might have adjusted the trendline based on linear scale and it looks like I did all right so this bottom trendline is based on linear scale I'm using this point back in July I'm using at this point back in September so the point for the audio podcasters I have a trendline supporting the price at approximately $1,800 from July 16th of last year guys do you realize do you realize that less than a year ago we were at $1,800 and right now we're at like 8000 it's not pretty damn well and oh you know what pop out let me pop out the chat so this way I have a TNT as well there it is cool that's where I can see the trolls hey thanks Cory for being in his chat feel feel like time idiots out all right all right next and the other price that the bottom trendline is using hey thanks bad wires I haven't seen you in a while thank you for the tip I grab his comment or question Lea will go over that ah September around September 14th September 15th at a price of $3,000 is the other point so those are my two points the down move from the high down to 6,000 came up just short of the trend line and the trend line got supported the other day now when I go to the linear scale we've broken above the trend line from the top so this is a bit you know fidgety in that now that I've got a log scale and my trendline isn't all that good I don't really like it right now I'm gonna move my trendline again I'm gonna move it back to this I like this much better so now I have the trendline off the top is actually in log scale the trendline off the bottom is in linear scale this is called you know budgeting with your technical analysis in order to make it look like you want it to look so this is also another reason why I'm not a huge fan of like trend lines and stuff there they come in fourth on my list of stuff to look for candlesticks is one chart patterns is to the sequential indicator is three and then it's support/resistance moving averages trend lines for Bonacci all that stuff is number four and that number five is oscillators oscillators like the MACD you liked the RSI and all that stuff okay so anyway so I think we are kind of done with this up move I think it's time for us to go down I am bearish here once again now here is another thing to all of everyone seems to have gone bullish I don't understand like this like like makes it so weird for me right so everybody has been complaining in forever that tone doesn't do fundamental analysis all he does is technical analysis and like Tyler said on your hyper wave show Leah it's hard to do fundamental analysis because it's always reflected in the price so occasionally I do fundamental analysis I do a lot of fundamental analysis around the having event I did a lot of fundamental analysis around the etf news I did a lot of fundamental analysis around the D cash event around the 2x event I should have done more fundamental analysis around the CNE futures I thought it was going to be a dud I didn't realize it was gonna be a dud duck quickly and I didn't realize people were gonna be this dumb bidding up the price into the dot event so I underestimated that so guess what guys I did fundamental analysis last week you know what my fundamental analysis was this technical spike is that's my fundamental analysis now I know you don't like it I know you only want me to do fundamental analysis when it agrees with your outlook on fundamental analysis so here's the fundamental analysis this is a short squeeze this has nothing to do with the long-term reversal of the price of Bitcoin it has a chance to turn into it if we consolidate long enough and then breakout but I till I see that happening I'm not buying it therefore my fundamental fundamental analysis tells me that this is a way for the maximum amount of people to lose the massive amount of money and if you have proper stop losses you navigated this fairly well or at least then lose too much so my fundamental and technical analysis are both saying we're gonna go down and it's actually very unfortunate that the weekly chart gave me a price flip it really really sucks so now I'm afraid there's gonna be nine more weeks of downside so let's see how that ends we're gonna get squeezed between the 50 week moving average and the descending trendline so let's see how that ends if we're lucky we'll break out I just don't I'm leaning bearish here guys like man I wanted to sell some Bitcoin in Austin but I guess too many people were following my advice where we didn't want to buy it from me um but anyway I I mean there's not not nothing's going out on the lower level timeframes at all so I'll get to your questions real early this is what this is the 4-hour chart gave you a nice short-term nine we want higher you know how to bunch of a thirteens 8:30 and s 13 I'm looking at the aggressive on another account not sure why I'm looking at the aggressive should probably change that I should looking at sequential yeah so there's no sequential number so we're just working on a second aggressive no new sequential numbers coming in nothing really going on is this 12 hour what does this know this is 15 minutes not really sure why I was looking at that let's look at the 12 hour Oh 12 our top 10 a 9 but that's makes sense because the daily also talked on a 9 you had a triangle that broke in the opposite direction it met its target of breaking in the opposite direction and there is some support I mean the 9 did break to set up trendline and this could be a 1 to 40 under correction and back up but again I'm leaning bearish all the way here no this is the the shorts and stuff and let's go to the 1-hour real quick for a minute I don't really see anything I haven't looked at any old coins in a really long time what is this this is like the shorts versus long again okay that's fine the sp500 I'm gonna be all over the traditional markets guys I might spend all day tomorrow catching up on traditional markets and I'll bring you a market pulse because I got to start trading next week or earnings season I'm so bullish I mean I always was like generally bullish now watch out for the stock market at the 50-day moving average here ah gold ah no trying to break out but it should break out you got like a monster cop and handle and handle and maybe another handle goals looking good for a breakout it ain't going to no 10k so stop dreaming Ilia what do you think should I think a look at a shift corner to tell ya yes yeah on it ha ha ha what do you want to see hmm guys what do you think live chat let's hear it oh god here we go Tron is your first one that just came up really Tron yeah Virg yes alrighty can we like at least something I already have a chart for I don't know what the hell verge is all right let's do B – oh wow look at this you know what guys you're not really impressing me right now I mean oh my god you see this chat how much coins are you people holding why are you watching me this was a bad idea I never ever asked that question again to the all right here's Tron all right guys you're gonna break Google you're gonna destroy YouTube they can't handle this guy these guys in this transaction step left yeah I don't see anything here there's nothing useful in Tron I don't see anything like if I don't have anything like there's nothing here it's like middle of nowhere right like you go to a weekly view tamanna has enough data now everything's price flipping alright Tron's useless next theorem what aether Oh either okay it's a dogecoin but my dog ate that she bu knew so well your dog would eat him absolutely it'd be great oh I got a I got a text a friend that gets paid in ether and let them know to uh get out what the hell is this is this legit what happened here yeah get out of ether guys this is your daily ether it's not a nine and as a here's the 50-day moving average ah look how it perfectly reversed on a nine going up and now it hit a nine up here I would be out of ether I mean this was a nice bounce-back the daily ether is bad or here's the weekly ether Wow look at this reversed on a nine so it's a bit of a conflict between daily and weekly so the weekly still has a little bit of room to bounce before it starts going down and the daily is at a nine so this is like the this was like a great buy point right here look at this the indicator called ether perfectly just like I've called it perfectly at the top I called it perfectly right here see here's your weekly nine it took place last week and off the low bouncing back up and if you go to the daily there was a daily nine right at the low so you literally could have caught ether on the 30th so the 30th was right here Wow so this is the daily 9 that the daily low on ether came on a daily 9 in combination or in combination with a weekly 9 I mean this is what a trainer does guys I mean I did it sucks that I'm using ether as like the prototype example but you don't have to be in every trade you didn't have to trade ether for like months at a time but then when you see this combination of a weekly 9 on the same day as a daily 9 I mean this was a great either by an opportunity of right literally at the low you could have picked it up at point zero five four but now you should be getting out at point zero six four that's a nice legitimate 20% return on somewhat low risk I mean this is what real traders do but yeah I'd go but right now you are looking at a daily nine and you're about to get another def cross on ether well not another def cross a def cross the last time either had a def cross was like here again ironically right often I probably get my new indicator off I mean this thing is still using the old version ironically right and next to a nine this is a perfect def cross to short because your price is getting squeezed into the def cross on you shorted right here at point zero seven three and you ride this sucker you know I I wish you could have rolled it to zero but hey nothing's perfect and and III think this is it for either so watch the DEF cross you got a nine on a daily and and yeah well it's not that ether is low risk right I'm just talking as a trader like you guys you got a separate you got a separate my objectivity of technical analysis of ether versus the fact that ether is a combination of pure garbage and an outright scam like like you gotta separate my objectivity of being a trader from my actual fundamental analysis of ether like I'm capable of holding both positions in my head like I'm capable of understanding that ether has a good trading opportunity to the upside well at the same time knowing that it's an outright scam so you guys use that information as you like but right now ether is definitely not looking good from a technical perspective it looks like it's out of top all right let's look at one more on shift coin and then we'll do Q&A doneyou got a tip creep name konima coin face never even heard of this one but cutie um q Tom you tinkle yeah I've heard of it the problem is I don't have a chart for it and I'm being lazy I guess I guess I can create one I usually wait for I know I usually wait for like a client to pay me to look at some coin and then I have a shard of it for the rest of my life but I'm in a good mood today I got my computer running I have Liam with me I'm in a good mood what do we got cute um cucumbers and other outright scam guys what's the ticker for cute oh here it is I guess I'll look at it on bit tracks only because then it probably has the longest history and attracts finance just is recent all right let's look at this cute um thing yeah I stopped the old indicator up let's remove let's get the new one up ah nothing I see nothing you know it reverse adenine had a 13 the next day had a nice pop I it's not nothing since I mean there there's nothing to look at how the Deaf Cross stuck below the moving average I mean it's bearish it's more bearish than bullish I'll tell you that I mean the Deaf cross right the moment cute um falls below this line it should actually be bad like youth amused to stay above this line and then it'll probably go lower and then you're looking at a double bottom and then that's gonna get ugly I've never looked at cute um before in my life but it's it's great to see that the all-time low came on a nine I don't make this up guys it really kind of works alright I'll look at one more one more will do one more load chart a da that's the cord on oh crap right you got a tip for Z cash from t-bone also still using the old indicators it shows you that I haven't looked at this stuff in a really long time I'm already not gonna like this it's going up oh yeah you should talk tomorrow there it is it's on a big fat ache um I mean look at your recent lows right like it bounced right off of the 13 bounce right off of the 13 bounce right off of the 13 and boom you're on an 8 so tomorrow you may want to take your profit tomorrow yeah I was kind of right on these arrows right boom boom almost made it a little higher than I expected yeah this thing is I think it's just pumping oh you have a chance I mean you think your profit and then if it breaks this red line and maybe bounces off the 50 and goes up it'll be unfortunate for this insanity but um but hey what are you gonna do oh wow look at this this thing oh look at this topped right off the nine nine thirteen nine aggressive thirteen same day boom down we go man I should be trading this indicator or not talking about it why am i doing everybody a favor alright what was that tip one what's another one ZK oh yeah I got one of those charts now that's it that's it guys that's it last one I want to do some actual Q&A I know it's know nothing that there's nothing here I don't see anything useful still using the old code I don't even have moving averages up I should have moving averages let's get the new code in haven't looked at this stuff in a while but you have to move in averages in triple moving average and I think is the one I'm using yeah 50 I don't really need the 100 toggle 3 to 2 uncheck to remove the long okay so I have to make this 200 and might have to change some colors I like my blue I like my I like this one I'm blue and this one in orange yeah so it's sites under the moving average it had its deaf cross I mean watch bounced off all these Thirteen's held up the price at the Lowe's watch this line watch this line below this line gets bad I just watch this line if it goes below this line there's no support ever actually so if it goes below this line there's absolutely no support so you it's kind of done what am I looking at z cash oh yeah no it gets ugly you got no support below the slide this is like your last chance here goes below the slide it's probably going to like new lows like all-time lows there's nothing here like this was bad like you're gonna get a new or low Wow as he cashes really horrible isn't it ya know this thing is you know it's a disaster it's a technical disaster like it doesn't really give you anything from our trade perspective but it's a technical disaster on a long-term scale like if I go to a weekly chart and a weekly chart is coming up on a nine but I think it's the one of those nines that's gonna get broken down you're on a deferred 13i yeah this is I'm not the G cash ain't looking good all right enough for this let's go back to the daily and then I'm gonna close these things all right let's close e cash no cancel that close e cash let's close cordon oh let's close aetherium and Tron and I don't need that anymore and god I can't believe I now have a cute thumb chart I'm more etherium and that's it all right any any questions any good questions yeah cuz I'm in DC what will happen a Bitcoin if Trump fires Mueller oh nothing irrelevant I mean look the more people Trump fires the less you know gets done anyway so nothing's really gonna happen I look the last thing Trump cares about his Bitcoin he's got bigger problems he's he first of all he clearly spends way too much time deciding on who he's gonna fire he's got the whole China issue going on he's got the whole tax issue going on he still tried to build his wall all right guys the last thing Trump cares about his Bitcoin and Bitcoin is gonna be a problem for the next president not Trump okay is hey what was the what the bad virus say when he tipped me like like 50 euros thank you for that by the way hi bad virus so with pick one going up why are you still sure that it's going down I well because of technical analysis in general right it's going up I on a death I mean for the same reason I drew this red arrow here right like like you see this red arrow right there when we bounced off of the vicinity of 7800 and I remember this day remember this day everything was like falling hard I forgot we reversed I forgot what happened this day do you remember I know we all went live and like Tyler it bounced right off of phase 3 and stuff remember this day it was the 18th of March I don't remember what happened that day it's just Bowser on a Sunday night did like bounce in the last couple of hours for no reason right like right before both Tyler went live together yet right right so like for the same reason I was so sure that this bounce was not gonna amount to anything other than frustration for the shorts and I and I kind of guessed where the Deaf Cross was gonna be I was off by you know a week but doesn't really matter I drew it out the air will go into a moving average and then the Bears are gonna get back in it this is no different here you know it just it just shows you how hard trading is the overall environment for Bitcoin is still bearish a lot of people want to know about how and if you think tax day is gonna affect the price of Bitcoin I don't think it's gonna affect all that much I mean anyone are and anyone that had serious taxes to pay over crypto you know I hedged a long time ago I mean we are talking about like old coiners and stuff that wait till the last minute if there was anybody like with serious money institutional traders people with millions of dollars they they already took care of this tax thing I mean I was just working out my taxes this morning but I the moment I landed but uh but normal people got this you know figured out I I think it's a non-issue and I think the tax thing is a non-issue I mean most of the tax stuff that matters happens in December when people exit their positions for tax purposes as far as paying their tax bills I don't think so I I really really don't I don't think it's gonna amount to anything I think it's just noise is there some kind of yearly cyclicality cycle for crypto I don't know I haven't looked at the data on yearly charts and it's probably not enough data to make any kind of a and any kind of a conclusion as to the yearly cyclical cycle and the moment you discover some kind of a pattern there it usually breaks so I if anyone has anything cool you know send out a tweet make it shard tag me out lamps at it through my Twitter but uh I'm not aware of any and I have not had time to you know because look you can spend like a week you can spend like ten hours a day for a week trying to find some kind of a cyclical pattern and at the end you may just give up and say it's not there I just don't have that kind of time to spend but if you do go for it if a short squeeze happens again Ken that short squeeze push us back into a bull market in your opinion it could but it's not it's not a short squeeze that puts you into a bull market it's more confidence that the law is in and considering that the low was only $1,000 lower not even right like look at our price right now we're at seventy nine ninety so we're let's say rounding 8,000 where was the load that we bounced from that law was at 6500 right so we are 1,500 bucks above the law now how confident are you know real people that have experienced that the low is in I have not met a single experienced trader that is confident that the law is in talked to tor talked to Tyler talk to van Zen talked to like like any trader that I respect they are not confident that the law is it a lot more of us work on that the law was in off of this bounce okay this was a significantly stronger bounce that had a chance to bring us back to all-time highs when this bounce failed we now need something even stronger and this was not it so it's not even that another short squeeze is gonna get us into a bull market there can't really be a short squeeze right now I don't think there's not many shorts you're better chance to get you into a bull market is significant consolidation above $8,000 and by significant consolidation I mean if we can get stock between eight and nine thousand for the next two to three months if we can get stuck here going into mid summer that's enough consolidation for people to have confidence that while Bitcoin price has done nothing lightning and you know all these other under-the-hood developments are improving and more confidence in Bitcoin Bitcoin stability is very good a Bitcoin stability and low volatility helps Bitcoin a lot makes it a lot easier to convince your friends and family to you even buy a hundred bucks worth of Bitcoin so don't underestimate stability of a price as long as that stability does not happen at the low end like if we get that stability between 6,000 and 7,000 that's bad if we get that stability between 8,000 and 9,000 that's good I hope you guys understand the difference there because by having stability above the lows you allow it to get above the moving averages and trend lines because they're so factoring in those low prices when you consolidate at the lows you allow all of you are bearish metrics to meet the price at the low and then the price just tanks so your best bet is stability here but like based on today's candle like it's not looking good guys especially if tomorrow you get a lower low I mean we can also get squeezed between these two moving averages but once again these moving averages are kind of fudged mostly because one of them is drawn off of log and one of them is short off of linear now I understand that this is fudged but it looks really good on this current zoomed in version all right before we get to the last question or two I can't leave this stream without shelling the affiliate codes so please if you like my work and you want to support my work and you want to see more free content whether it's day/night or cross-country please check out the affiliate and referral section of my website a lot of these are discount codes like saving 50% on VPN service or saving 10% on commissions at bit max of course trading view I use all day every day check out my friend Julia Tory ASCII and her introduction to Bitcoin consulting if this is new to my channel and if you if you have friends and family that want to know how to use Bitcoin how to store Bitcoin one of the few people that I actually trust to explain it to people so check that out and anything else you'd like to click on Hardware walls all right back to questions based on your dot-com presentation does this mean that the ICL bubble has not popped and how do you see that happening oh you know what I really have absolutely no idea the ico bubble I do not believe has popped I mean the ico bubble will pop when there is like serious fallout I mean imagine the bit connect fallout but from everyone I know I don't know what's gonna happen with that ICO bubble I mean it looks like it's starting to fester even more ever feel honestly I honestly don't know I this is gonna be a weird bubble it's gonna be a really weird bubble I mean people remember what happened dot-com days this has to be a little bit different somehow I have no idea how but no I don't I do not believe it's popped yet well you'll know what it's pop oh did you send me a message oh I didn't even really do a messaging me I I it what you'll know what it pops because the Bitcoin I Bitcoin market cap versus all other market caps is going to be back about 95% what is a medium wrist entry point for the current Bitcoin daily 9 I good question I here's how I would have played it here's how I would have played it I didn't realize it was a nine I just turned out my charts like again I went out last night got home at like I don't know 11:00 or midnight reasonable hours but I had to wake up at 3 o'clock to get a you know an uber to the airport and then a flight at like 6 a.m. and then I landed here at like 11 a.m. and then I came home and got my computer running and stuff so I didn't even know that we were on a 9 but but here's how I would play it right let's say you have Y amount of money in your account as a traditional trader basically and you decide that you're gonna put X amount into the current trade and that X amount should probably be in the vicinity of 10% of your trading balance so if you're gonna go X on assured off of the 9 what I would do is I would break it up into three parts I would actually be willing to short 1/3 x over 3 so 1/3 of your intended position I would be willing to short right as this nine showed any sign of weakness I would have hoped for the perfect trade as it touched the 50-day moving average and I probably would have missed that perfect trade so I probably would have shorted it somewhere in the eight thousand two hundred and fifty dollar range x over three okay I would add another third to that position if the next candle is trading below this candle with a price flip so if the next candle is a red one and this trading below the current candle I would add another third to the short and then if the following candle is a red two trading below that red one I would add then add the final third to that position now unless one of these candles runs away so what I'm saying is if this current nine candle goes all the way down to like 7200 I probably would not be adding to the short I would just be happy with my 1/3 of X I would take my nice fat profit and not go short again after an extended candle and the same thing goes for the next candle right if the next candle you enter you double down not double down but you add a third to your you make it two thirds of X let's say around seventy eight hundred and this candle runs away and goes all the way to 72 or 73 I probably would never add that second dot third third into the trade I would say you know why this is already baby enough money I'm gonna start setting you know lowering my stop losses and all this kind of stuff now if you did enter your initial 1/3 off of this nine your stop-loss is going to be just above the 50-day moving average now the moment your next candle starts trading below current candle absolutely set that to a break-even stop and if your next candle in two days trades below tomorrow's candle you can absolutely set that to the high of tomorrow's candle uh if hope that made sense to people those that attended my seminar better have mints made sense to you guys all right in two minutes I gotta join the noted podcast with Pierre and Michael Goldstein and I'm not sure if that's gonna be streamed or not I'm about to find out in the next two minutes I do have to call it a day once again check out learn trading on my website Lia final thoughts final thoughts or final questions definitely thoughts the last question for you any comments on Tim Draper saying 250k by one I don't know guys I don't know coin telegraph quoted me in the beginning of this year that I said that we're gonna go to a hundred K by end of here I never said that right but coin but coin Telegraph quoted me as saying and even though I've never said it anywhere not to them not on my streams so if I was gonna be right great if I'm wrong I can always claim I never said it like like a lot of these things are like dumb lilac did he actually or is someone calling him so that's the first question you want to ask and I look I I also think we're gonna go to 250,000 dollars a Bitcoin but I don't have a time for you guys I have no idea that's why their SSI the daily video it's not gonna be tomorrow it's not gonna be this year but it'll happen I believe will happen that's that's my bet as a hopper straight from Nostradamus I everybody have a great day thing so much things down I bye guys good luck trading

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