Trading Bitcoin – The Anatomy of a Descending Triangle

welcome to another episode of trading bitcoin with the host tone days I'm starting a little later than I wanted I wanted to do this like an hour ago an hour and a half ago but you know life gets in the way so this is where we are it's about 11:30 p.m. Eastern Time in New York hopefully I get everyone and yeah I guess I messed up the time of one the show is but we are live um anyway alright let's just go to screen share let's see I'm gonna attempt not to make this too long either but last time I spend one – way too much time promoting the conference and stuff but so check it out the on confiscate of a conference I'm hoping I can you know sell enough tickets and continue to bring you good speakers so I'm working on a few other really good speakers but you know it's not as easy as it sounds getting speakers because the space is saturated with conferences so this has to be a really really good one and only you know people that I feel are gonna be very good on stage and provide the maximum amount of knowledge the poker tournament we're gonna come up we're gonna add descriptions and we're gonna make it clear on everything but uh I'm sure make it clear that there is no profit being made by the conference on the poker tournament this is a professionally organized like a pro-am tournament the expenses of the tournament will be taken off the prize money and and then I do want to set a little bit aside for like black Bitcoin development and I'll get you the numbers shortly but there's absolutely no profit going to me or the uncomf escapable LLC which is the company behind this whole thing so I just just want to make that perfectly clear okay I'm trying to get more celebrities in that game you see some of the pictures on the top page but anyway you get the point some of these pictures will will rotate because if I have you know more high-level people coming in I will make more pictures all right and finally just real quick my workshops the perf workshop should now be going away from this screen nope still here yes it's still November 3rd somewhere in the world so probably tomorrow the Perth picture will be gone I'm trying to add Tampa can't seem to get in touch with the Tampa blockchain incubator but I should probably try harder and then if I can work out a date there will be a Tampa workshop between Aruba in Vegas as you can see I'm doing a lot of workshops because honestly I don't know if the conference is gonna make any money or not and if I'm gonna have to dish out a bunch that I would like to make some beforehand so I don't care what you people think honestly but I'm trying to do something good for the space so if you look at my working you want to support my work please use the affiliate page if you are gonna buy these products or use these products anyway alright and the same thing goes for the Amazon affiliates alright let's go to the charts here's a monthly chart and the monthly chart has broken the trend line now we have an entire month it can't just break the trendline on November 3rd it has to close above this trendline not only does it have to close above this trendline I needed to close above this moving average so if we can close this month in the vicinity of $7,000 per Bitcoin we can begin to reconsider whether the current environment is still like the 2014 fifteen bear market until we close this month above that moving average it is still the reincarnation of the 2014-15 bear market it really is that simple because if you look if you look we had a candle that did close above that short-term moving average which is a seventh month moving average that happened in June of 2014 the next candle closed back below that seven month moving average and that was in July of 2014 so there is really tupa and the next time we closed above the seven month moving average we were right at the trendline our resistance and the following candle both opened and closed above the downward trend line and above the moving average and the moving average had started round being and flattening out okay so obviously we are not here yet because the moving average is not flattening out yet that was in July of the following year right so there are several possibilities that could happen here on a longer-term scale one of them and this is the most troubling the most troubling possibility so I guess I should start with the worst case first right the most troubling possibility is that this bear market is worse than even I thought it could be and that means that if we bounce here that bounce is actually could be equivalent to the May and June bounce and that would set us off for another year or a year and a half of a bear market I think this is very unlikely okay but if that happens if we bounce to say the Fibonacci line of ah 7600 or even the other Fibonacci line of 10,000 and then reverse and go below this green upward trend line that could set us up for a three-year bear market instead of a year and a half that we had before that is the absolute worst case scenario that I did not even consider until very very recently and I don't believe that's going to happen I do believe that the having will save us that's what I still believe right but that is a possibility you need to consider now obviously in that case my short will get liquidated because my liquidation on my short is pretty much this monthly Fibonacci line unless I see the environment as bullish and I exit myself before my liquidation is hit which is perfectly reasonable when you are a traitor yuria value it now I don't believe that to be the case and if that's the case it's also possible that we're gonna go up and up and up and up and the new all-time highs um the other possibility is that this trendline remains intact and we end up closing below this trendline by the time the month ends keeping our ah the mark count keeping our TD count intact into a nine around the vicinity of the the other Fibonacci line which I've lowered to be seventy eight point six just to kind of again I don't have time to deal with you people and argue with you so sometimes it's easier for me to just change the damn thing just to avoid a dozen extra two tweets I wish I can mute like all of Twitter like not muted right because I don't want other people to read your comments either I wish I could turn Twitter into a telegram chair where nobody can reply like nobody can reply because the amount of useless comments outweighed the amount of useful comments 9 to 1 so in order for me to read a useful comment that is actually helpful and where people have done some actual critical thinking and it helps me be a better youtuber it helps me be a better analyst in order if you need to read that one comment I got a read 9 to 10 a pure garbage and and then similar things are on similar things are on my you know youtube comments add 30 percent pure scams and it gets very very annoying and frustrating so once again I'm debating turning off YouTube comments only because like there's not enough time in the day to read a useful comment out of a sea of garbage I would like them all to be useful but they're just not so until I see evidence of a monthly candle closing above the 7th period moving average I will assume that the sequential count will go down into a nine I will assume we're gonna reach the next target of a moving average I will assume we're gonna reach the next target of the trendline I will assume we will reach the next target of a Fibonacci line I mean those are the targets until the price proves otherwise Bitcoin price remains uninteresting a lot as long as it stays in the Triangle now people have commented how come my triangle looks like this and not from the very top my simple answer is because my triangle has always looked like that it's not that I started the triangle from the top of the bull market and then conveniently adjusted it to fit what my brain is telling you I see this has always been my triangle okay so when you say how come you didn't draw your triangle like this and then like that well you are the one that's filling something to what you want and not mean because the only way I can draw it is this way well it would obviously be way higher right and that's not a real descending triangle because a real descending triangle I for all in my world I don't know what it is in your world in my world a descending triangle needs three points of contact along each line now we clearly have three points of contact along the downward sloping side of the triangle but we do not have three points of contact along the bottom side of the triangle the only way to draw the triangle with three points of contact it's to draw it this way right but if you draw it this way you do not have three points of contact along the upper side of the triangle and you have fully broken the triangle to the downside fully broke in the triangle to the upside and now you are back at the bottom of the triangle so if you did draw a triangle this way it is totally meaningless at this point and you can simply delete it it is not a breakout above the triangle no it's no more of a breakout above the triangle anymore than it's a breakdown above the Triangle that's a wash it broke down below and was a fake-out it broke out above and was a fake-out because we went below the triangle so the only reasonable way to draw this triangle is with maximum points of contact as low on the candles as possible so that means I can actually do it this way because I no longer need this point upside this way here right I need maximum points of contact without breakouts above or below so you can readjust this triangle now what you need is at least three points this is you need at least three points of contact at the top and at the bottom and because I have this is a point of contact it did not close below this is a point of contact I read just admire eye angle so that it does not close below that is a point of contact that did not close book so the moment this point of contact showed up I can create a triangle with one two and three points of contact so this point no longer has to touch the bottom of the triangle I've made because I am within the criteria of a triangle without needing this to touch on the upper side once again I have one two I'm touching that wick and three and these don't actually have to touch it um and I am still within the triangle now I don't see myself being able to adjust destroy angle much going further but this is my optimal triangle it's touching the maximum amount of candles and none of those candles are closing outside of the range of the triangle okay now let's talk about something else let's go to Twitter because this is how tone weight tone this apparently wastes a lot of its time somebody who's not a traitor that wants to pretend to be a traitor posts in accurate things like this a bullish reversal is looking good the answer is no it doesn't okay because unless you are a traitor and you understand what this picture says you are basically doing a giant disservice to people learning technical analysis this does not imply that a descending triangle breaks to the upside at all a descending triangle breaks to the downside okay so for those that don't understand how to read this picture I have to spell it out what it means is that if the triangle does not break too it's statistically accurate direction it has to first break out above the last point of the triangle that rejected it then your by point you buy the pullback off the new swing high if it pulls back and rebounds off the prior swing high so this is the buying point and you can't even assume this is gonna reverse the price so you almost have to wait till around this area here in order to actually buy the breakout and that is the difference between these things I know I wish I could like get rid of this nonsense right like I almost want to block people so that this garbage and the incorrect interpretation of this garbage is not on my Twitter feed for people so this is where you buy it not here not here because here you can still readjust a triangle you buy it here words as by the pullback okay then you set your stop loss at the bottom of the triangle and then your target becomes off the pullback the fat part of the triangle like the target itself is telling you you do not buy until after it pulls back so if we go to the picture and we try and interpret what that says here's what that says to me the last touch of the triangle is this blue line which I was using for my stop-loss let me toss you guys a bone let's assume I lower it let's assume we make it this as the touch of the triangle which it's not what that picture says is your price has to break out above the triangle and set a new high actually I should make it blue like that and or purple let's make it purple I want to learn to get color it's not on the chart okay then you need a pullback back to the area of the last high then and only then if it bounces off of this area a little bit actually I'll make this purple as well even a little bit just give you something positive then and only then do you admit that this triangle broke out and then you buy to the upside that should probably be an arrow then you buy to the upside you know and then your target becomes this whatever that is sixty six hundred or fifty two hundred right so you then you take this I'm gonna delete all this by the way so enjoy it while it's on the chart then you take this guy you stick it here you flip it around you put it here and that becomes your target off of that blue line for fifty point or you know and this is where it gets tricky right so it's either a fit percent upswing of 52% or died or the $6,600 right whatever you want like you want to be optimistic go with that one I would go with the more pessimistic target and then raise it to the more optimistic target if the situation calls for right that is how you trade the breakout of a triangle in the opposite direction and that's exactly what that picture says well like it and if that happens great I will be a bull but I will not be a bull until here now this is the most optimistic case this is the most and you're not gonna catch the bottom you're gonna get in a little bit late you're gonna get it around here and that's your target right that is your most optimistic target the the the normal target would be halfway to that zone with a 50% rise right now the other scenario is this may not even work it could work I mean I can maybe fudge this a little bit to kind of get this a little closer you know I can maybe do that like I I can maybe squeeze this in like I'm trying to give you the bullish case right like I still can't get this high to hit that top of the triangle but it's close enough it's close enough okay the other option is by raising this line to here you will now need these to be substantially higher like like that this would need to go from there to here that means this arrow gets moved up this little piece gets moved up like that and then you go bullish of that okay either way and now this becomes you know this goes here or something you know but you get the point the point is that if it's a breakout out of the triangle above the triangle your buy point is not until after it pulls back to the prior swing high okay that is how that is the analysis of a descending triangle breaking against the seventy seventy percent statistical probability that the drop would be the downside because I need because the the trade you make to the downside you don't have to wait for anything the moment it starts trading below that the credit line you're in the short trade this is why I am in the short trade I jumped the gun a little bit anticipating that the bottom side will break down over here a few weeks ago and I will just wait and if it gets back to the slide I will double down on the triangle break down okay I understand that statistically speaking is this bullish scenario has a better chance of happening the closer we get to the tip of the triangle but it's still not above 50% the breakdown is still the higher probability outcome I will put a note on this before someone takes a screenshot that says tone is bullish I will make a note and say 30% chance of upward breakout oh that's not the one I wanted I didn't want a shallot I wanted this one and we can make it green you know oh wait that's the text text give me black if you make it green if it makes you guys happy 30% chance of bullish breakout and then I can say I'm making this purple and now we can add another one here and this can be green whoa if foolish break by the dip okay there that's the dip that you buy now I can make this and that's the target I'll even leave the bullish target for you I can make this a little smaller if you guys are hockey you know I'll make it smaller can buy earlier you know and that becomes the target and this goes right to there there that is what you would do if you have a 30% chance of a breakup and I don't like this there okay and now we can take a red arrow and do this all right let's be reasonable let's only go to 5000 I'll make this arrow thicker and then we give it another note put it here make it red let's make it deep red 70% chance of break down done okay that is what you're looking at with that right there all right and let's see how this develops I should probably start this yeah there it is okay done there take your screenshots and that is what I am looking at okay probably see what the troll box has to say probably shouldn't see what the show bus has to say I haven't been looking at the live chat guys at all now it can also stay flat for the next nine months but saying that it's gonna stay flat for the next nine months is hard to predict and I'm Ina why then why do I make videos right if I'm gonna if I'm gonna call Bitcoin to do nothing for the next six months I might as well just do it on Twitter the coin is gonna do nothing for the next six months like what's the point of making videos right so you can't say that tone you've been bearish the whole time but we've been neutral so you've been wrong okay fine well then why do you watch then don't watch it's that simple ah but this is what I'm looking at right now and put this here lower okay well actually hold on you should probably move this out of the way it's not gonna break out this week obviously so it has to be you know later on there okay that's it and now for the daily chart sorry now for the weekly chart let's move on the daily chart I want to point point something out that's kind of interesting okay so on a daily chart notice this channel as we continue to be inside this purple channel now notice something here notice how these red arrows as to where I expect the price to go these red arrows you know the price isn't going towards those red arrows right and people continue to say oh you are so wrong you are so wrong the price isn't going down to your red arrows even though it did go down to these red arrows here and here and here and here and almost got to this line here we got to it later on and I continue to be more bearish than the prices I don't know how long you guys have been watching me but in the twenty sixteen and seventeen bull market look at these green arrows this one and this one and this one and eventually this one I got right so look how wrong I've been being more bullish than almost anybody else in throughout all of 2016 look at how wrong and how ridiculous this blue arrow was okay sure I gave her two possibilities I gave it a deeper pullback at the time before the descending triangle are fully before the ascending triangle fully formed I thought we can have one more by the dip eye situation and then but look at this other orange arrow I got this totally wrong and I got this totally wrong and I got this totally wrong and I got this grossly wrong and I got this one girl Ste wrong but look where all of these arrows are all of these arrows are pointing to the upside while everyone is panicking over China and the government and the having and the Segway to X and the ETF and people ragequitting and Bitcoin being big blocks i was the biggest bull I was brought to the point of laughter people were saying that bitcoin is not gonna go up that high and then look what happened and over here I started to get closest and now my current bear position is no different then my bull position was in 2016 and 2017 the charts were telling me to ignore the nonsense of everyone being scared and stay bullish while today the charts are telling me to ignore the nonsense of everyone being bullish and stay bearish it's just technical analysis that's what it does it's not always gonna be right but it has been for me in the four years I've been doing Bitcoin ta okay so there you go these arrows are no more wrong than these green arrows were back in the day and I have not changed these arrows since the day I drew them you can go back to my coin Telegraph articles or my videos from back then go find the videos from 2016 I'm sure they're there go find tweets from 2016 I'm sure they're there somewhere articles they're all around somewhere and I was writing for I think I was writing for brave new coin then after coin Telegraph on the world crypto Network I don't know I don't have time to look for him so the daily chart let's zoom in enough time goes by I'm gonna draw another red arrow if we stay in this zone so I understand this is VIP fanatics but villain axe is finally getting into line with bitstamp so they're about to be at the same price this is where I put my short in I probably jumped the gun I saw this big around one candle I anticipated the red to to go below the red one I anticipated this candle to be like this candle only in the opposite direction tether imploded mentally it didn't actually implode tethers back to where it was at this time the price is still a little bit higher let's see what happens with da and there was a nine to the downside we had a one two three candle could 1 to 4 candle correction to the upside that fits the criteria and now we're going back down and I'm waiting for my red one price flip and then I'm gonna wait for my red two to go below the red one so probably sometime later this week we might have it but right now this is totally neutral I'm leaning bearish but not by much and the daily chart has not been very useful I've said this many many times at the 12-hour chart I presented a bullish case I expected this count of the sequential system to get me to a nine and then reverse and go lower clearly that did not happen there was more weakness in Bitcoin than that and we had a big red one candle we had a red to go below the red one and now we're on the red 3 so technically speaking the sequential system on the 12 hour chart gave you a short trade as of six thousand three hundred and forty two dollars on the chart of a bit Finnick obviously I can remove these arrows because they are no longer relevant so what I am looking for at this point is once we get back to this line I expect us to accelerate to this blue line this blue line has been our mature whites there it should be like here this blue line is very critical support it is also right next to the redesign of trend line and if we break that area I accepted an acceleration to the downside these arrows are randomly drawn in time for time purposes now what would you stop loss be my stop horses are usually blue so let's make this purple and now we can add a blue line on this trade your stop-loss would be in the vicinity of the prior swing high so that is either here if you want to be you know a little more conservative with your stop-loss or here if you want to be a little more generous with your stop-loss now you can say that is a ridiculously high stop-loss it's only a ridiculously stop stop loss if you are 20x leverage or 50x leverage or 100x leverage if you are 2 to 5 X leveraged that is a very reasonable stop-loss and my stop-loss is even higher right if you are even if you probably 10x leveraged that's probably a reasonable stop-loss maybe not 10 but certainly 5 so you gotta get your position size and leverage in check because my position size and my leverage a lot well this is bit financed right other exchanges didn't go like that my position size and leverage allowed me not to panic when the price jumped to 7,000 from 6,200 ok so you gotta adjust your position size and you got to adjust your leverage to I be in line with the trade itself ok so that is what we're looking at on a 12 hour chart um again ah bitcoin was weaker than even I potentially would have given it credit for we did not make it to the other moving average we got rejected by the current moving average so I can once again delete this arrow and this arrow played out fairly well but from a lower point we can move this arrow down and I'll make this fullscreen this is that line I'm gonna I don't want to make it red because red is usually what I use for entries now notice that the 4-hour chart topped on a beautiful 9 wasn't a perfect 9 because it converted to a 1 before they can to land it but it's still an eye nonetheless and there was a red – going below a red one somewhere you had a reversal candle I'm gonna adjust I'm gonna make this line purple well it's not exactly purple is it I don't know where best to adjust it I'll probably adjust it to here and then I'll scroll back yeah it's not the best but it's good enough and once we can get below this line I anticipate an acceleration down now you can say hey tone you went past this line here well though I didn't really exist there I actually know it it probably did yeah you went past it and then it had faked and then you went past it again and then it had faked and then you almost went past it again well yeah happens trading is not easy trading is hard and if you've done it you know it's hard so yeah one of these days it's gonna drop and you're gonna think it's gonna be another head-fake but it's not and it's gonna close down here somewhere okay so I will remain and it's a four-hour charge that it's probably not gonna happen for a few days so we can simply extend the line there next hourly chart well I should send out another tweet shouldn't I right because the hourly chart continues to be a textbook version of the sequential system you have a nine at the tie you have a nine at the low now I will admit this is not the easiest candle to trade it's not and it's not the easiest candle d'etre yeah I mean if you bought up here you might have gotten wrecked if you bought down here you got very very lucky right now that wasn't even the low the low showed up here we broke the setup trend when that happens this should have kept going down but then it rebounded again trading is not easy it rebounded your stop-loss would have gotten hit if you do trade this quench 'el system how would you have traded it on this particular chart well in the current environment when the current environment you could have gone long on a three breaking above the two that took place at what when and at what price for the audio podcast that took place at 1700 UTC no 1700 New York time I think I don't even know because right now we're at oh no UTC time yeah 1700 UTC time on the third of November you go along when do you take your profit you take a profit on the nine when do you short well if you're cavalier you sure that weakness off the nine but not convincingly like somewhere in this vicinity you can take a dime you know you can dip a toe into a short trade okay but your real short trade is here right here right now well last hour the moment is for went below three that is your short trade where's your stop-loss you have two options either the swing high or the larger swing high or the larger close of the swing high three options you have three options this one this one so you're three so you're short for the audio podcast guys you're short on the hourly chart is of 63 72 on bit the next crisis you're conservative stop loss at 63 let's say 80 your second linnaeus stop-loss is 63 90 and you are ultimate stop-loss 63 92 okay these are hourly candles adjust your risk and position size accordingly maybe we'll do what maybe I'll do a workshop one day on position sizes and stuff like that what is this this is gbtc now this is interesting I won't listen to looked at gbtc and this is gbtc daily and I may change it to a weekly – just so that it's cleaner debatable of that's even cleaner and I need to make the chart itself cleaner so we need to go to background drop the lines okay so as you can see gbtc I believe has broken down from its triangle now you can keep and this is also why I hate wedges like people are gonna draw like this wedge right hey it's a wedge you have this or however they draw it you have this and you have this and it's supposed to break out of the wedge well maybe because if the next candle is a big downward candle you're gonna say well now the wedge looks like this okay and that's why I don't like wedges I I hate them I never ever use them I like my triangles I'll draw my triangle there's my triangle what is my triangle telling me my triangle is telling me that we have broken down it's not a great triangle because I can't get three points to touch this is the best I can do with the triangle okay the best I can do here well maybe I can raise it ensure there okay so we broke down from the triangle we went into the triangle we broke down from the triangle again and now we're going down okay this is the August $5,000 top if my memory serves me correctly let's see the $5,000 top took place at the end of August my target for bitcoin is the first target is the $5,000 pop if you look at gbtc this is the $5,000 top on gbtc let's give it the benefit of the doubt and remove irrational exuberance and say that the candles close at the end of the week after the premium got out of hand is the true $5,000 top you can see that gbtc has already went below that point so what's the next point that is this point that's May 22nd where was the price of Bitcoin on May 22nd that is this well no sorry that's May 22nd that's the irrational exuberance the $3,000 top called perfectly by sequential by the way was the first week of June so again let's go to gbtc and find the first week of June that is right here okay so again either we are at the high of that week or at the well I guess can close it down there so we can use candle close so let's just use the high that's a reasonable high no foam over there so we have almost touched we have almost pulled back beautifully on gbtc were were even we missed it by literally a hair on gbtc of the back test of the June $3,000 top so we've broken down from the triangle we back tested the five da the de Jun hi we back tested that mu sorry des jeux the August hi we almost back tested the Mei hi so I don't understand why it's unreasonable for Bitcoin to also break down from its descending triangle and for a Bitcoin – also back test the logger time and for Bitcoin – also back tested June hi I'm not saying it is certainly going to happen I'm just saying it is not unreasonable to consider the fact that it could okay now one of the reasons why the gbtc stupid premium is going down is because people are once again over excited about the SEC making yet another announcement of like a dozen ETFs that they are that I have an eighty percent confidence this time they are going to reject all of them I don't expect a Bitcoin ETF this year I didn't expect that last year we've gone through this time and time again in fact I would consider buying gbtc at this current premium probably shouldn't have said that I sure just went and bought the damn GV TC because when the ETF's get rejected the the the premium on gbtc is once again go through the roof so I probably should I log into my retirement account right now and put in a bunch of limit orders on gbtc I probably should have done it before the pop the other day if I had to guess what caused this pop right here if I had to guess the silly pop the way this silly pop a not silly pop it's probably because people get this thing as I hate maybe the ETM saying it rejected so maybe I'll wait for the hype of the ETF oh you know what I should put in my moving averages here I should also probably put in my sequential triple moving average and Oh what do I put on this this is the daily right so I don't know I don't want the hundred so maybe the 128 and the 200s I don't know and oh wait I'm putting in triple moving average I meant to put in the moving out forecast all right that one is seven thirty and fifty that's fine I'll just leave those for now and and then the TI okay so maybe I'll wait no it's – okay so I also have to go here I have to get a background I have to drop indicator values and I don't need to see all of that on a TI so I'm gonna drop that and I'm gonna drop that okay here we go this is the daily one so maybe I'll wait maybe I'll wait for this line maybe I'll put a bunch of limit orders around six dollars and buy BTC at six dollars right but remember if the price of Bitcoin drops out of a triangle the gbtc can drop to five dollars or four dollars or three dollars right so and look at the volume look how pitiful the volume is on gbtc anyway that's what you get here is done I probably have to adjust this factor I always have a problem with this coefficient but this is the price of Bitcoin divided by the coefficient on a backdrop of the gbtc chart or the other way around with gbtc chart is the backdrop so red is the gbtc and and blue is the price of Bitcoin but the coefficient needs to be adjusted another way to look at it is this this is the the in the liquidity premium or the illiquidity premium and as you can see we hit the oversold RSI condition on the premium it does get volatile at times this is a daily version I can try the weekly version maybe it looks cleaner now the daily version is better the line should probably be thicker looks better and volume is atrocious and you are near the lows here right so grab a purple line whoa whoa that's nice that is nice that is nice so we are literally at the lows of the gbtc premium now again this is what's frustrating to me the coefficient plus G DTC has a 2% yearly maintenance fee that means that gbtc has now been around for um it started in June right so one so we'll use July right so one here two years three years wait something's wrong Jimmy's been around longer than that it hasn't been traded here right so Jimmy's he's been around I believe for about four or five years so 10% of the value of the Bitcoin in gbtc I went into Barry Silbert sprocket for managing the trust and therefore I'm always struggling with the coefficient but in any case this is what we have and because the coefficient has to be adjusted every year based on the data of that year it's very it's it's shitty math that I have no time to write a script for and there but it is a little over it's probably a good buy point I'm gonna see if I can log in to my broke rafters alright that's it atheria m– is still a basket case with its triangles I spoke about it at length last time please go see it I'd be trash I just opened it up yesterday because someone pointed out that be trash was on a nine by and I hate my indicator sometimes what's not actually my indicator but this indicator does do well on pure and utter nonsense and and there it is again of course hindsight is 20/20 because I didn't know there was a nine on is garbage because I don't look at this garbage and and there it is there's the nine four days ago and and now it's going up and for whatever God knows reason it doesn't matter it's irrelevant ah the premium of BitFenix price of bitcoin and bid stamp price of Bitcoin is almost back to parity so let's give it a few more days and it probably will be the sp500 daily futures we're looking Evandro was looking great but it was a Friday people probably did not want to risk the election on Tuesday and they took their money at the end of the day that's my only explanation here is the weekly candle the weekly candle is still in a bearish posture but if we can break back above this purple line I believe that's the top of the channel we could be okay here so I'm not gonna say anything about the stock market right now I'm gonna delete that line cuz it's in the way and let's wait and see how the market opens I believe it is it's 12:30 a.m. on Saturday in New York I think so so we have a whole other day to go here's the daily SMP I'm gonna cut this video in five minutes guys I actually do wanna hug either to work or enjoy my last day in Perth because I'm leaving tonight the daily chart that they start is very strong and they're very weak but not as weak as it could have ended I'm gonna reserve all reservations right now the daily chart is bullish the weekly chart is bearish something is gonna have to give here I do expect us to hit a moving average maybe both of them that's it I actually don't feel like going through equity side through through individual stocks today mostly because I this already took too long and but I will go back to shilling the affiliate codes please support if you like my work I have 1,300 viewers right now which is amazing and truly check out the uncomfortable conference in Las Vegas 24 to 26 I am working on better well maybe not better I am working on speakers that are just as good as my current speakers I'm trying to make this the best Bitcoin conference annually in the world and for some fun we are gonna have a professionally organized a pro-am style poker tournament with as many crypto celebrities as I can convince to pay point one Bitcoin for dark poke to potentially win expenses will be taken out and a little piece will go towards Bitcoin development but other than that we will redistribute the rest of the prize money denominated in Bitcoin everything here is denominated in Bitcoin I need to hedge my currency risks but everything is nominated in Bitcoin the entry fee to the tournament the entry fee to the conference itself which are separate the entry to the card never eat dinner which eventually will be posted and my workshop is or has always been denominated in Bitcoin pert should go away by tomorrow I'm based on time zones and because the perf one has already ended and mine has always been denominated in Bitcoin at point one Bitcoin to attend I don't know about others I believe others are denominating in fiat and accepting Bitcoin so for example Jimmy song I had on over to his website and you can sign now for his workshop this is all completely separate that's about it that's it guys I don't think I'm gonna do any Q&A yeah I'm not gonna look at nutritional start guys sorry but yeah you see the speakers and I'm trying to get you more I just don't want to tell you who I'm reaching out to because it's not fair to them and six tickets left at this price by the way maybe a little more tickets at this price but the next year of prices is double this prices will double once 50 tickets are paid for that's the early bird special the there is only 300 tickets available for sale this is not consensus there will not be 10,000 people at this event the venue is AA modest in size and only 300 tickets are being sold in total and price goes up every 50 tickets okay alright guys on this note I'm gonna call it a day I'm gonna end screenshare sorry I couldn't get to your questions and we have Corey on with me today to compile those questions I don't know if sasha was compiling those questions for me I can check telegram to see if anyone sent me questions and I don't see any so therefore I am gonna call it a day Sasha thank you for hanging out if you are in Florida at the moment it's 12:30 in the morning I'm hope to see you in Vegas and we will do another Bitcoin law review next week I am in Melbourne as of tomorrow and I will try to bring you regular podcast once again from Melbourne and hopefully I'll get time to hit the beach alright guys on this note I will call it a day and we will talk to you all on the next one

37 thoughts on “Trading Bitcoin – The Anatomy of a Descending Triangle”

  1. tone u moron most of people here watch you vdo to mock you.. consider yr audience half when u shiut the comments… anal cyst

  2. 😀 😀 now ass hle is saying it may hit 10 K and then wil go down to 5K 3 yr bear market.. u piece of shit……. if it goes to 5K in 2020 will u say SEE MY ASS FARTED 5K IN FEB 2018 AND MY FART WAS SOOO RIGHT.. BULLL SHIT U CRAPPY ANALYST OR I SHUD SAY ANAL CYST

  3. tone shitting in his pants.. from daily to weekly and now moved to monthyl charts just to say we ar egoing down we are goign down.. ass hole trading is for money .. your trumpeting 5k since feb and u missed many trading opportunity since then.. give unbiased trading analysis not yr wishes…. yr the most crappiest TA analyst ive seen. no education just yr wishes.. and then then ur legendary dialogue….. BUT ITS OK..

  4. You are the biggest fool i have seen with the greatest self confidence to boot lol. Tony literally just drew some green arrows upwards during a raging bullmarket and thinks that makes him a genius lol.

  5. So basically what Tone is saying is he is going to regulate all comments to people that disagree with him wont get their comment to affect the people that listen to him

  6. Why would you want to go to a over priced event where everyones talks will be the same as the last talker you will all bitch about bitcoin cash and roger ver and talk about other girly bitchy shit followed by some misleading agenda driven garbage

  7. Ill end the debate its the end of the year stocks have peaked instituational investors are already in and its absolutely found a hard floor at $6000 being out now you may end up paying more after today following big noses TA snake oil shit. With misleading people as friend like jimmy song i would watch with caution everyone the constant bagging of roger ver and bitcoin cash there is a proaganda hidden agenda behind everything these guys do. You may not want to believe me but please just be careful listening to these guys and get second opinions on any decision you might make based off these fools

  8. Tone … I continue to love your realness and your evaluation of the distribution of the comments. Maybe there is some resolution or add on to filter the bullshit. Altho then we get into the vicinity of going against free speech. But I agree with you about critical thinking. It's crazy that this is aligned with real life as well. SMH. Thanks for continuing to give us great content. I know I'm not adding much value with this comment, but I want you to know there are some of us out here that are appreciative of your work and understand the context. Thanks Tone.

  9. Tone thanks for the T.A. Question do you think the trading bots as they trade with each other, is or isn’t what’s keeping the price from going to 5K and under. I know they must also be making money from actual humans. Imo I think that’s what’s keeping price from bottoming out and starting bull market.

  10. Hey Tone, thanks for yet another update, keep them coming, love your analysis! Just a heads up in case you hadnt seen it yet: some redditor is calling you out on r/cryptocurrency. Not sure if you even care about that, bc the trols call you out constantly anyway lol 😉 @tone vays

  11. Mr. Tone Explains Triangel Break Out chances and His longterm Trend arrows in First half hour. Interesting basics. He Shows correct entry.

  12. boom thank you Tone. This was great. I have a similar view. you're def one of the best teachers in crypto with your daily videos. it is very appreciated

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