Trading Bitcoin – Starting to Feel Bearish Again



hey guys welcome to another episode of trading Bitcoin with your host own face going straight to screen share and I'm not going to talk much about the site later today I will be driving over to Philadelphia so come out and meet us at the meetup ah please try to RSVP I believe it's free I if it's not free it can be more than 20 dollars because it's just a meet-up so please check it out please RSVP so that the organizers know how many people are coming the following day I am doing a workshop there should still be room and if you are interested in that and then I'll be off to Mexico the following week and after that I will be in New York City for consensus and all the other shenanigans around it I may not attend any conferences but I'll be in the area because everyone else is in town alright our workshops in Decatur please check it out I talked to some of it about it yesterday affiliates if you want to support and the store if you want to support also check out the conferences the links are right there ok now let's go to Bitcoin I'm gonna redo the long term chart uh again I'm gonna try to keep this video short I had a little bit of a late start I always underestimate how much time it takes to set up a live stream and and this morning I was kind of pissed that the thumbnail wasn't like displaying on Twitter the way it's supposed to so I kept redoing the tweet then I finally send them and gave up it's a YouTube issue it's kind of weird all right you know I kind of want to redo this okay so I want to take that off this doesn't look like it's updated oh it's a monthly chart okay so we're in the koromon so it's a monthly chart so I want to drop these right because now it might be easier to draw it and let me they're gonna be similar I'm just gonna take a wider look at it right like I probably should have prepared this I'm gonna there is the same concept right I want to make this bigger so I wanna take this so remember what we said oh it's a monthly okay I see what's going on so this is a monthly chart and I can't do it on monthly with a weekly sure use the weekly chart damn it so people keep asking me where we think we're I think we are and I continue to say that like I think we are like here it was this November upswing somebody asked me this yesterday so I said it so what I now wanna do is and I think this is gonna play out a little bit longer because everything is taking place longer so I'm gonna take this I'm gonna take it from here from this candle slide it over to here and maybe this candle no let's do this one yeah I was the top so I want to get that low in there right so I still think that we are gonna go down like that okay I think we did break this trendline but I think we're going back below okay now where does that put this guy puts her around 1600 I'm okay with that that's reasonable to me right so I still think we're gonna go down it may take a little bit longer though I don't think we're gonna go down this quickly so what I'm actually gonna do is I want this to be in October not July so I'm gonna actually change this what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna grab it from here I'm kind of making this up in real time not only making it up but I do believe we're at this point but it also looks like things are taking a lot longer so what that means is I'm gonna grab this guy because I wanna whoa what am i doing cuz I want to delete that I want to line up so this is April May June July August Sherman County May June July August September October so six months so I have to go back six candles so one two three four five and six so that's the one we're gonna grab so I want to grab this candle and go down to here now I can take this and I can put it there now this puts us a little bit lower but it does put us in October that's what I want so something like that okay but I don't want it to be higher so something like that okay so this is going it's going to my 1,300 that's fine and it's done in October which is what I want now from here what I want to do is again I have a feeling this bear market is gonna last longer than people think so I'm gonna grab maybe this candle and then I'm gonna go over to here oh we can go even higher right we can probably go over here although what happens if I take them all now because I think it's gonna be slower if we're gonna move slower let's go over to here when I grab this area I'm gonna put it right there okay that takes us back to about $8,000 in November of 2021 it's probably a little bit different than I drew it before I probably should have paid attention to what I had before okay I then still think it's gonna take us more time to get out of this mess I am screen-sharing right yeah most of not looking at the lecture so now what I want to do is I want to once again slow down this progress and go from here over to there there will be breakouts I just think they'll be slower that isn't slower actually but this does take us into 2023 maybe it is a little bit slow so something like this I'll probably like double check it with my time elements I got a factor into having you know I got a factor and other stuff right but the general idea is that I don't believe that we are that we've recovered right so based on what I think is happening right now which is the equivalent of November this needs to you know last longer it sucks it sucks for all of us but it is what it is so there you go and there's no reason for me to talk about 2023 yet yes exactly there's no signs of all dying which is why this ship might be might get very very very ugly so be ready be ready I'm ready you ready okay hi this will stay where it is and I want the two charts to be kind of compatible so the love I have is in October the breakout from 3000 I have in February 2021 the breakout of 3,000 yeah yeah similar how about here i have it as like this is the 3000 area so late 2020 2021 yeah that's fine that's fine there's aircon in line and then I have over here I have 20,000 in May of 2022 and here I have 20,000 in October 2022 so that one is happening sooner so I may put them in line I have plenty of time to decide okay it's good for now all right let's look at the weekly chart by the way next week I we are gonna have a little debate whether the market bounced or not whether the low is it or not I still believe the low is not it but hey I can become that's wrong if you bring a good enough argument so we will try to do that next week the weekly chart is still not tradable I will try to keep this to 20 minutes this whole video I'll do my best so the daily chart went bearish on this line according to sequential but like I said yesterday it was a bad trade to make so please check out yesterday's video yesterday's video had some jams I'm gonna cut out a piece and put it on the standalone the 12-hour chart is a little more interesting the 12-hour chart was on a red floor it is currently on a price flip and it only has 40 minutes to go actually so this will probably end on a price flip the 12 hour chart is setting up for a good short trade with a good risk profile if the current candle does not cross this line and the next candle is also a consolidation candle that stays under the moving average and does not cross the line but gives you a red one then the following candle the candle that will take place in 24 hours could be a red to go below or at 1 going below this line which is the consolidated low this becomes a high probability short trade because your stop-loss is very very clean at above the moving average now I don't recommend you know jumping ahead of the string right but you have a very defined risk profile and this is the kind of trade that I would me because my I know where my entry is my entry is gonna be around five thousand and twenty nine dollars if the stars in the moon line up with a red to go below radwan going below this line in 24 hours from now or in twelve plus hours from now I should say between 12 and 36 hours from now there you go and my risk is very defined my risk is five thousand one hundred and ten dollars or so so my risk is only a hundred bucks but my reward just simply using the 12 hour chart is a fall below the setup trend line which should accelerate the drop and then you have support of the moving average and I don't think it will hold because there's no support in this area like this is your last line of support and if we go down below this red line I believe this is going to break this will also create a dynamic on a daily chart with breaking this red line once again with the red to me and or potentially the next day with a red for so you now have the daily chart in line with the 12-hour chart in addition going up one level to the weekly chart if this actually plays out the way I expect in 24 and then 48 hours your weekly is going to flip your weekly is gonna go well it's not gonna go to all right one it'll still be a red two but you are now if the weekly closes below this red line which is 5,000 and then the next candle next week starts to go lower you now have a clearer path to a 1 to 4 candle correction of the 9 now it could be the simply one 1r candle and but I will take the chance that it's more than one candle on a correction and support on a weekly chart is also down at 4,500 but all of these supports are very very weak the only strong support left for bitcoin is the $4,000 area and potentially the rising moving average but as this thing past the moving average the 200 week moving average over and over and over it gets weaker weaker weaker my opinon um yes all right well it does seem to be bullish and now Willie would does seem to be bullish and I spoke to him this morning and we are gonna try and do a podcast next week to debate ok the 4-hour chart the 4-hour chart doesn't look it looks like it's about the price flip I really wanted it to get to what 13 but that may not happen so be very very cautious here we're on a 7 of nine but the next candle will be a price flip probably because it will be below the four and a five so it'll be hard this thing will really I would have loved to see a nine thirteen on the 4-hour chart but the current weakness in the current candle is gonna totally screw that up if we had a little more straining you know going into this morning and then we could have gotten an eight and a nine today times it with a thirteen though the thirteen is probably not the official thirteen is not coming because the thirteen would get deferred and I'm not gonna you know go read the book of the mark why it gets the part so the 4-hour chart is just not very useful right now unfortunately because I don't think it'll set up for a good trade oh man the one-hour chart if only I was awake five hours ago I was sleeping so this was 2:00 a.m. New York time and there was a nice 9:00 on the hourly chart that would have allowed you to time the reversal off this you know today hi that would have been nice the leverage the leverage everyone the Long's our deleveraging which is not really good for the short trade you want the the leverage to be very very high so that the Long's get crushed but the lungs are not leveraged at the moment so that throws a little bit of a what foul on the bearish case I'm not gonna talk about gbtc eiephant dumps I will buy she beats and see this is the best evidence I have for potentially that we have bottom but even if we have bottom I still think there will be a custom dis line before the habit but the thing is what the having this chart might break because what the having remember this thing goes down by two this thing drops by two we really don't need oscillators in here so this thing will drop in half that the next having so we might very well break this consistency as this thing goes down to like their gold looks horrendous this is a horrible looking weekly candle today's Friday but the the good thing is this thing might actually get to 1:9 soon are the SP is gorgeous going into the weekend as one of those rare cases where I wouldn't mind folding it into the weekend that's it for me guys please check out tone vase calm and you can support there's gonna be some epic episodes coming next week I'm looking to make podcast history next week I want to break all of my numbers all of my life watch numbers all my views I got some I III got some gems coming you guys have no idea and it's just gonna be some oh it's gonna be a ridiculous amount of content next week before I go off to Mexico it's gonna be great loss show with Hold'em nuts case yes we will do a loss show next week I'm trying to not only hold all not also what's happening with Peter mcCormick as I saw this morning and I have my own legal situation which you guys will all know about soon enough it is not as interesting now that Peter McCormack has published the letter from Craig Wright but it would have been a lot more interesting but Peter listen man I wish you the best for those that don't know I tweeted it out this morning so on a second Twitter Oh another Bitcoin it was bankrupt interesting another Bitcoin mining operation that is so tweeted it out this morning Peter mcCormick got a letter from the lawyers of Craig Wright and Calvin air basically accusing him of libel and what do you call the defamatory statements so I have my own situation in this regard that I I mean I've been dealing with it for a few days I didn't want to just make it public the same day I wanted to process the information and then properly I give it the attention it deserves Peter got this list this then this letter is dated April 12th today I believe is April 12th or 13th already okay so Peter but Peter published at 19 hours ago so he published it on the day he received a letter I received a letter earlier than this but I've been taking my time doing research processing the information and I will properly air it soon enough so that's going to be one of my upcoming epic episodes okay David you are asking me one of the stupidest questions you could because what you are telling me is that you do not watch my show tone did your short get liquidated the other day if you do not watch my show I why do you expect me to waste my time answering your question so please unless you actually watch this show unless you actually read my tweets don't ask questions because they could because you would stupid why can't you see me because my camera was malfunctioning so that I'd have enough time to deal with it I'll get it up and running soon what am i doing my next time analysis probably the summer I mean the next the next critical date the next critical date is not to locked over so I have time like I I think I'm gonna raise the time of like the slow mode the slow mode right now is set to a minute so you can only comment once a minute I'm a raised up to two minutes I'm a raised up to five minutes because like most of these comments like they're not like if I give you less time to comment maybe those comments would be a lot more useful like I want to see you know good comments in the chat I want this chat to be useful to me but it's just not okay so we can take a look at I want should wanna take a look at lifts give me one second before I get off the stream I can't post my trades I posted my trade and it cost me an unreasonable amount of money by posting the trade so in order to only keep two or three people are creating a legal problem for me instead of 80 people creating a legal problem for me I am legally not allowed to post my trades we will try to bring you a Bitcoin more in Greece next week the last time I tried the last time I showed my trade it created a huge problem and cost me an unreasonable amount of money not because of the trade the trade was the best trade of my life but it cost me an unreasonable amount of money and time so I cannot post my trades anymore so we looked at Chevron yesterday I would be I would not be buying Chevron at the moment I would wait for earnings I just want to look at lift we'll keep an eye on lift so lift is still on a short trade and that's uh a little bit of a bounce so if you are in a short trade of lift and the perfect time to have shorted lift would have been on this red line when a red two goes below a red one goes below the prior swing low now I wasn't looking at lift on this day I wish I was but I wasn't and even if I was I couldn't short it because I don't have a trading account anymore I only trade in my retirement account and legally I can't short there so it's the downside it's the downside of tax optimization because I'm tired of paying an unreasonable amount of taxes so I'm legally lowering my tax liability now right now this is still on a short trade I would love to pick it up on a red nine on a nine with the reversal candle at around $45 okay so that's it guys I'd left more to say and I will see you all probably on Monday because I have to go to Philadelphia have to speak at a meet-up I have to then teach your workshop so whatever happens in the market this weekend you are on your own good luck trading please try to make mine talked to you all on the next one

30 thoughts on “Trading Bitcoin – Starting to Feel Bearish Again”

  1. Have you tried that crypto platform? You can withdraw Tether to paypal and it has the lowest fees in crypto-fiat exchanges. Open BIT. IHACK. CO

  2. the descending triangle which broke at 6k probably rekt a lot of people who thought it was the bottom.noobs who see the first sign of green will FOMO and will think 3000 is the bottom and that the market has capitulated. the market works against the 95% of traders. ask yourself is the first obvious drop from 6k to 3k really the bottom is it that easy to time the bottom… or will it drop more and destroy those who have little patience. personally i think there will be 2 more lows made before the real bottom. it will drop below 3000 to probably 2500 and then from 2500 to 1600.

  3. I'm encouraged with your YouTube videos! I am a crypto believer and I am still buying. I learned my lessons over the past 10 months. Although I am down on my portfolio value, I am still buying via dollar cost averaging. I truly believe the current prices will be laughably low in a few months or a year from now. I take the risk of lower prices on the short term for granted, knowing that the prices will be much higher on the long term. I am not taking the risk of not having invested what I could (because of I was waiting for lower prices) and then not take full advantage of the bull run. For me buying more crypto until the bull run begins is a no brainier and with the help of Allan Shaw , I am able to increase my bitcoin portfolio, 18 btc and counting. Thanks to his trading strategies and signals. surely now I am expectant of the bull run. Feel free to contact him. instead of just hodling and wishing for the best in a market manipulated by whales you can make so much more. His consulting email [email protected] or WhatsApp +447427159640 and thank me later

  4. Hi Tone, I basically agree with this forecast however I think the danger of a recession that might mess up a new bull market is imminent!

  5. I was still hopefully bullish until I saw the salty comment section. And tone, bring on the lawsut, you have bitcoiners that love you. That's not a bad place to be.

  6. Tone is the man, all these salty people are holders, which is stupid because most of them buy high and call you retarded for saying it will go 1k.

  7. Why don't you create your own coin and call it 'Bitch Coin' and then you can bitch about it all day… leave BTC alone.

  8. guys this is just educational. do your own homework. the day Tone predicted BTC will go to 5000 in a few weeks, it actually shot up to 5k in one hour just a few hours after his video.

  9. Double bottom on 200weekly m.a and bull run start. If you don't believe me…look left ( the Past ) 3540-3220$

  10. Anytime BTC reaches a resistance level the BOTS from the whales dump. The BTC market is too easily manipulated, which is why BAKKT will not happen. Whales ruined it for the mass of people who are soon too be REKT. BTC is the first but too corrupted to be the best over time. Consider your investments a donation to the whales.

  11. Tone Cпасибо! Хотелось бы тоже самое послушать на Русском,

  12. Fascinating analysis as usual. Still, next ŁTC Block reward halving due Summer 2019. Last 2015 halving saw ŁTC up 5X – some Money then moved to Bitcoin which rose 40 per cent. There is a difference now that the Łitecoin profile is a lot bigger with UFC, Glory kickboxing, K-POP partnership and state sanctioned remittances Venezuala.

    Much more to come (ref Oscar nominated Film Maker CommonEnemy, John Kim and David Schwartz Łitecoin twitter feed)

    Bitcoin ‘halving hype’ follows 2020!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *