Trading Bitcoin – Last Live Stream before Understanding Bitcoin Conf

hi everyone and welcome to the second team of the day for trading Bitcoin with your host tone days I had to do a very quick youtube video this morning because I literally only have ten minutes before we have to go to the walkthrough and then I have to go over to with Adam and giacomo to block two blocks live that TV for an interview they are also going to be doing the live stream for us and the the goal of this morning's video I wanted to let the world know that I took a short trade in Bitcoin and I wanted to do it as soon as possible because last night I was just I just heard a train I passed out because I needed sleep I didn't have time to like write a silly tweet or you know I don't have a couldn't put in the effort right so let's go through it in a little more detail along with my interview with Ivan on tech because a lot of people saying that I said something very wrong about the amount of Bitcoin that went up in 2017 so let's kind of review a bunch of that stuff and this would be my last price stream because the conference I'm gonna be busy we're gonna be organizing the conference we're gonna be live-streaming the conference on this channel so you guys are on your own with you know trading decisions and stuff I have a short trade on I will let you know where my stop-loss is I will not adjust that to stop-loss let's just discuss everything a real quick I I do have other stuff to do today so we'll see how long this is gonna be let's take a final in-depth look and I'll and on Sunday I have a workshop all day so maybe by some miracle I will do a video early morning on Sunday but probably not it's possible there will not be another price livestream on this channel until Monday okay and then Tuesday I go to Italy Wednesday I go back to the US and we can talk about maybe meeting up for dinner in Italy but I just have no time to manage that so okay let's let's go to screen share where am I here okay let me close that and what is this let me close this let me close this hold on and I'm Nicole I'm just gonna look like closing but I'm not gonna look at past Lila close that as well okay now let's go to the live stream I already see a question is one point three thousand still a possibility absolutely yes ability the question is is one point 3000 greater than a 50% probability and my answer to that is I don't know do I think that sub $3,000 is greater than a 50% probability my answer is yes sub 2,000 greater than 50% probability my answer is probably 1.3 we'll see okay share screen and here we go I so I'm gonna go to my Twitter real quick hey guys check out this interview with our blocks live TV we were just in their studio it's a very nice studio here in Malta they don't have a lot of followers go ahead check it out they they do a pretty cool stuff a really nice studio they're gonna be providing the live stream for the conference understanding Bitcoin Adam back Giacomo Zuko and myself were just in their studio doing an interview that interview is gonna air live on their Channel and you can go to their website by clicking on their Twitter handle it's blocks live TV you can just head on over there and check it out we will it'll be at I think 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time which is like 6 p.m. all the time or something like that you can check out some of their other content so go ahead and take a look ok Kevin I know Kevin okay next I did an interview with Ivan on tech it was a very good interview oh it's on their Channel ok sorry that's all about my youtube channel profile I did an interview with Ivan on Tech the other day or as its heared it okay let's let me click on this and go over something real quick someone is asking me what is my percentage that we go sub 3,000 somewhere in the 60% to 70% range I'm still pretty confident that we are gonna go sub 3,000 okay so in this check out check out my interview with high vedanta Ivan does a great job it was very good questions we should talk about this part let's review a little bit right right here 200 USD to 20,000 as a hundred ex I said ten acts okay let's let's go through and review that okay I could be mistaken but let's just go ahead and review again I do so many live streams yes I mean obviously from 200 to 20,000 is a hundred ex that's not what's in question the question is what did I mean by the latest bubble being smaller than the prior bubble right and that's what we really need to discuss so I want to discuss that first we will get to my short trade after that because I think it's time we clear this up so let's about 400 live viewers so let's take a look at the long-term view of Bitcoin I will use this chart here okay this is my expectation chart let's go back to let's just back up here let's do this a little bit on the slower side so that we're all on the same page here okay I'm not really sure about that move but okay this is the weekly scale okay the question is when did this Bull Run begin so what I'm gonna do is I think if you hold the shift button and I'm not going to use this bottom wick that seems very weird wait okay here we go let's go up to this corner here okay now what percentage move is that so that is fifty one thousand percent so so in percentage right if we say something goes up 10x right something goes up it's just like math right if something goes up to X it's up a hundred percent if something goes up 3x that means it went up to hundred percent right so you just drop one for every hundred right so fifty one thousand that's not what we're really dealing with right let's talk about the duder than the real move right let's talk about the breakout let's let's use the breakout level right because there's a couple of ways we can do this and we want to be consistent we can talk about the move from the low okay I think this is a legitimate spike this is weekly charts so if I hold shift and I click this and then I go here okay oops I think I have to click it okay so that is a 5,000 percent move from the very low right I should probably write this down man where do I write it down I don't have a pen and paper or anything I'm gonna open notepad and then maybe I'll share my notes okay so there's the notepad I'm just gonna write it down on my own because like this stuff is kind of important and I'm not really prepared so we're doing this live so we are talking from April so let's do that this is the 2011 bull market right so we're talking April 2 so April lo to June I'll say June could be July I have no idea June hi April loaded Jill hi is I'm gonna round so we're gonna say fifty five hundred percent like I'm just gonna round right so what is fifteen hundred percent in X terms well that's about forty fifty five hundred percent that is 54 X right I I'm all sleep-deprived but 54 X because like again 2 X is a hundred three X is two hundred five X's four hundred you know so that's 54 X that's from the low ok another way to look at it and I know I'm not sharing my notes but I'll share my notes out there another way to look at it is from the breakout point right so instead of going from there I'm gonna go from the breakout point this was the true bull market right here so two reasonable percentages here this is three thousand percent again I'm gonna round right so I'm gonna say 2011 breakout 2011 April breakout April break to June hi so you see how that's a much lower percentage so that I know you you might be bored but this is important so this is three thousand percent I'm making notes but I know you guys I'm not sharing that part of the screen three thousand percent which is 29 X so let's round for purposes you know there's really not much difference between 54 X and 55 X I'm gonna use round numbers and here I'm gonna use 30x I know it's 29 next we're gonna use 30 X right so I'm kind of rounding here I'm using round number so this is what I mean when I say Bitcoin went up approximately 30 acts in the 2011 exponential rise okay so we're up to the X here that was the very first bull market okay now let's talk about the next bull market see the next bull market the breakout was like we didn't really dip right so over here the breakout is here right not from the very tip low but from the breakout level here we were flat we had this ascending triangle now I know the breakout versus 2011 which happened to be on a nine by the way so that's beautiful here the breakout from 2011 I want that arrow to be nice and thick but here doesn't matter sorry guys I'm wasting time I know I know time is precious not wasting right here the breakout is $30 but that's not when the move took place the move started right here soon after the having in January January of 2013 so once again I'm gonna hold the shift button I'm gonna put this here I'm gonna go right there I'm gonna do that and what is that that is a nineteen hundred percent so again I'm gonna round off and I'm gonna say the 2013 the 2013 bull market from April break because April low so not April I wanna say in January the low and the breakworld were the same so the low and break to start us off in January of 2013 up to the April high up to the April high was approximately I'm gonna round I'm gonna say two thousand percent which is approximately 20 X okay so so far we're all on the same page I'm making notes here then we had another bull run the question is where do we mark this bull run now I don't really want to mark it off of the very low but let me see what it what it is if I use the very low here to here still less of a percent than before right slightly less 1750 i ideally want to do it from this level where we flattened out and then broke out just for consistency's sake now we can use the day that the Silk Road got shut down in which case we're going from that low up to that high and that gives us 10 that gives us 1,000 percent which is approximately 10x right so there's a bunch of ways you can do this or we can go from here up to here right and that is 800 percent so that's only 7x now the other way you can do it is to use the low here and go all the way that this was a crazy year okay so um I think I'm just gonna split the middle I'm gonna split the middle and I'm gonna say hey you know what let's do it from the up move all right come on without what's going on I hate using this thing let's use round numbers and let's say this upswing is approximately the the late judge so this is another 2013 from October or from September let's say from September I guess it's a low and break on the same it was a low and a break on the same day low and break up to November high and that is approximately 10,000 per 1000 percent sorry which equals 10x again I'm just rounding now there's one more I want to write down I want to write down for the entire year so again I want to be consistent let's talk about the the bull market of 2011 I'm gonna use this area here and this takes us to 16,000 percent let's say 15,000 again I'm gonna use round numbers right 15,000 percent so this is the 2011 full year bull full year bull that is fifteen thousand percent put commas I were there is karma III I know you guys might be totally bored but I think this should be discussed and this is so 15 thousand percent he is what is that 150 X 150 X again I'm rounding right okay now let's talk about the entire bull market of 2013 right so the entire bull market of 2013 is from here up to there and that is 8600 I will round let's say that's around to 9000 again may be cheating maybe not cheating doesn't right so full year bull that's the 2013 full-year Bowl and that comes in at nine thousand percent which is 90 X I should put equal signs equals you know I know you don't see my notes but I'll show you the notes after equals and nine thousand percent equals approximately 90 X okay now now let's talk about the current bull market now notice how I wasn't going from the swing market laws I wasn't going from the swing market Louis I was going from the reasonable area of the breakout now we can debate where the reasonable area of the breakout was for the 2017 bull run we could also debate that the 2017 bull run was both 2016 and 2017 that was a big bull run now sure if we cherry pick the ultimate low of $200 that is a hundred x but I don't want to cherry-pick the ultimate low because I have not been cherry taking the ultimate low on my other bull markets if I cherry pick the ultimate low on my other bull markets then this would have been from this would have been a ridiculous acts like thousands acts like a hundred thousand percent right and this would have been from the cherry pick the low of $2 like because we can also cherry pick the low from here all the way up and that is 58 thousand or this one is thirteen thousand which would be bigger than that one right so I want to be consistent in here so I don't want to cherry pick the low I want to potentially cherry pick the breakout now there's two points of a breakout one of them is right here at approximately $400 so if I hold shift this to me was the breakout of the ascending triangle and if I go all the way to the top that is four thousand and this is in May of 2016 so this was actually over a year right so this is the 20 sixteen to twenty seventeen bull run and we're gonna say from the breakout area like we've been staying consistently of June break up to the December high and that is I'm gonna round I've been rounding up this one is a forty two hundred it kind of makes sense for me to round this down to four thousand percent you can disagree that's fine and that and four thousand percent it is 40 X okay so four thousand percent is 40 X but and and here's the big but coming this is a year and a half of a bull run and the prior I had we had two bull runs in 2013 right so even if I combine the entire 2013 bull run it is still sure in time then it still happened faster than the 2016 and 2017 bull run and if you combine the full year 2013 bull run that comes in at 90 X right now even if I cherry-pick the low right then every load it's a little worse so here's here's the general idea like I might have been off on my numbers because I was going I was doing them out of my head the point is this the way I look at this chart in log scale and now I'm gonna show you I'm gonna exit now that I have my notes so over here I will say 2016 well that is the full year right so this is put the fool I'm gonna say well because it was full year full year bull and now I'm going to take this I'm gonna axed and I'm gonna put that here nope not there sorry accident put that here put that here put that there right so so this is what I'm looking at here and now we can go you know individual years right like because there because this was a very long and dragged out bull market if I only look at 2017 that's another thing I want to do I want to compare them like what can Bitcoin do in a single year so then there was another breakout in this area the breakout of prior highs so we can say this area here let's not let me not cherry-pick against myself now if I use this breakout that is twenty four hundred percent for twenty five twenty five hundred percent for approximately twenty-five acts so that's from this area here and from the breakout area from this area from the one thousand law that is approximately sixteen hundred percent so about the same right so you know I'm not really gonna put that down so now let me do screen share let me change my screen Shadowrun stop sharing share screen I'm going to share desktop main screen okay so here's what so here's my breakdown right so oh I should charge my computer so so my breakout is this the 2011 full bull market was 150 X the 2013 full bull market without cherry-picking the law was approximately 98 if you cherry-pick the lows these numbers are astronomical so without cherry-picking the ultimate low in 2015 I used a reasonable breakout period of 2070 2016 2017 and that gives me approximately 40 X you can stretch that to like 50 X you know maybe you can stretch it to a hundred X close to it right but if you stretch this to a hundred X this would be over two years long this was only one year okay so to me the general concept is every bull run is getting shorter and shorter by percentage and that's the main takeaway it's not whether I was perfectly right on the statistic it's about is every single bull run that we've had in the last 10 years are they getting stronger by percentage or or weaker by percentage and they are clearly getting weaker by percentage and this is why I do not expect us to go astronomically high in the next bull run I mean if we can get to 100k great but well but I think we're only gonna get to 50k and then pull back is it possible we go to 100k yes it's possible right like this right here I have us going to 50k I will have to do is expand the arrow to like here an hour at 80 90 right so I do think that the next Bull Run is gonna be shorter by percentage so that's all I was trying to explain in that show with Ivan attack okay all right hey SEF I see your question you put in a generous tip so let's take a look at it um high-tone Bitcoin December 2018 low was pretty much perfectly timed with the SNP December 2018 low do you believe like I do that it's a coincidence yes I do if so and you are now long term bullish on the SNP seems contradictory to Bitcoin bearishness thoughts well if it was a coincidence it's not contradictory right like to me it was a coincidence that the December low and Bitcoin coincided with the December low in the S&P now was there a December high in the S&P I honestly don't remember let's go and take a look here is the SNP this was a high that was a high in October of 2018 so SMP tops before Bitcoin no I I think bitcoin is just independent of the SNP they have very small correlation a very small correlation I don't believe that it it's a contradiction thinking that the SNP is gonna go higher and bitcoin is gonna go lower also by the way guys I like I've been saying I'm gonna be very surprised if the SNP goes to new all-time highs this year I think the SNP is gonna double top and pull back and then break out the new all-time highs next year now I could be very wrong I I mean I'd rather be on a bullish side of the trade that I read the thing wrong let me read your question again Bitcoin in December 2018 law was pretty much perfectly timed with the S&P December 2018 low do you believe like I do that isn't a coincidence oh no I don't believe like you do I believe that it was a coincidence I believe that the S&P low and the Bitcoin low being at the same time was a coincidence I I don't believe that they're that correlated they're slightly correlated in the fact that they're both private assets okay but I don't believe that they're that correlated so I don't see a contradiction between being bullish on the S&P and being bearish on Bitcoin because honestly I think even though the S&P is a bullish trade it's kind of you you kind of almost missed the majority of the trade if you weren't you know long S&P yeah and therefore I think the S&P upswing is gonna slow down and I think we're going to pull back like sell in May and go away is a legitimate saying I do think the market will probably top in May and we're already in April so I really do think that the SMP only has a few months left of upside and I don't think we're gonna go to new all-time highs I think we're going to pull back and I think we're gonna pull back and it's gonna be a slow maybe a fast pullback but I don't believe that the SMP is going into a bear market but it's possible that the S&P is gonna pull back in May I go down into September throughout the summer stay above 2,700 and then break out the new all-time highs at the end of the year so it's possible at the SMP is going to reverse in the next few months and then it's gonna be correlated with the Bitcoin fall again which I'm expecting so the – to me this makes sense I don't know if it does to you okay alright now let's let's get back to Bitcoin so so so this is what I was trying to basically this is what I was trying to explain an IVA non-tech in that every Bitcoin rally every Bitcoin bull market is smaller to the prior bull market and that's why I expect the next bull market to be smaller still by percentage okay I got more questions tone JP MC is forecasting economy downtrend recession in 2020 layoffs have started in wealth management initial projections is 18 months how can that play out for Bitcoin price I think it's irrelevant I there could be a recession in 2020 I don't think so I think Trump's gonna get reelected and maybe there'll be a recession after Trump's reelection but I don't want to think about the stock market in 2020 it's too far away but thank you for your donation blockchain guru okay ah Bitcoin price we are pulling back further I Wow while I've been doing a video we're gonna talk about my short trade so here's that nine it really kind of man I didn't want to make that short trade last night I really wanted to do it like now like I really wanted to do the video right now because the 12 hour chart is flipping in 28 minutes I really really really wanted to do this video like around this time as we got the 12 hour 9:00 at the top like the the perfect like I really wanted to short this thing at like 50 250 300 and in my last video yesterday I said that I expected the price to go higher and pop today Thursday today was going to be the top now we actually topped I'm gonna go this is UTC time so like we topped but it was almost like Thursday right so we topped it at the very evening on Wednesday so I get the only very end of the day Wednesday so it was just I came in a little early and I'm sorry that I wasn't live telling you that I'm shorting the market but hey it's my job isn't for you to follow my trading my job and my job is to promote Bitcoin but other than that my job is to educate you about trading and I saw an opportunity too short because it went up way too far way too fast and I knew I had all these nines I had a nine on the weekly I had a nine on a daily that showed up with so there's the nine on the daily I had the nine on a three day which I don't normally care about but hey it's another timeframe that people trade and beautiful nine and I wanted to catch the I short off the top like if you're gonna trade the reversal you want to get that near the top as much as possible and unfortunately the 4-hour chart did not really line up but we did have a nine but then we went higher but I wasn't gonna go long here my only option was to wait for the 13 or take the opportunity to go short the hourly chart this is my 10-minute chart okay it's time to lower that stop-loss guys I mean I can't have this trade go lose me money at this point right so even if you entered this trade when I told you that I did it like this morning you still would have you will you'd be in weighing the money right now I think it was like 50 100 when I said it and I shorted at fifty to seventy nine or something I have 50 I'm not looking at my trading account right now I'm I'm not gonna docks myself again so and after this I got to go to dinner and stuff no I guess I can't tell you how much leverage I can't tell you anything because if I provide too much information I'm gonna get shut down again okay so the more information I publicly provide the more the trolls are gonna start you know making my life a living hell because as long as no one knows where that trade was made or the information on that trade no one can trace it no one can trace the trade so I can't tell you how much leverage because that's more information that I'm going to share for the purposes of making sure that trade actually makes me money this time and not yet you know forced dropped and I'm also not saying where that trade was made so don't assume where that trade was made because that could also be inaccurate there are other exchanges that I can make that trade and I'm not even going to name those exchanges right so for now all I can tell you is there is an uh the amount of that trade will be liquidated at this line but we're not gonna get there because I'm already I've already changed my stop-loss before I did this video and I made sure I closed the browser anyway so let's go to the hourly chart the hourly chart didn't help me enter this trade unfortunately it kind of sucked the hourly chart also told me to go along but I wasn't looking at that because the weekly the three day then one day and the 12-hour world telling me to go short and I saw the big price spike and I didn't like it I didn't know I didn't think it could keep going up like that I didn't I mean I thought we were overextended at 5100 I mean when I saw it run up like I was disappointed that we didn't sell the ticket sale Bitcoin at 5300 we sold it you know just under 5,000 we took that exit I'm like damn all we had to do was wait like two more days and we could have gotten you know 50 250 300 where I was actually shorting the damn thing so so I had to rely on my favorite intraday candles which is the 10 minute candles right now the 10 minute candles gave me the perfect opportunity and this is why you know I love dinner as people went for after drinks and here we had dinner with a blocking team last night people went after the restaurant at the hotel people went to a bar I did not because and I told people I'm going short I need to get you to get to my computer I need to do this and here it is there was a 910 minute chart and that nine allowed me to enter this trade now there was a couple of ways to do it you can in you can take a chance and start shorting right off the nine and you can wait for the red two to go below the red one anywhere here would have been fine I wanted to sleep I wanted to enter that trade and I did I entered it right there I at at the bottom of that candle it was around fifty to seventy nine and I'm the spot price and my stop-loss was gonna be the set of trend line at fifty four twenty I put decent leverage on there and I'm gonna let this thing ride now I am NOT even ready to take my profits yet because I'm waiting for this market to turn now because I have the eight and a twelve hour I will still be with you in twenty minutes and we will see a nine show up I'm hoping that well unless it dumps in the last in the next twenty minutes we have a weekly nine a daily nine a weekly nine that three day nine a one day nine a twelve hour nine is coming in 20 minutes I was really hoping for a nine or a thirteen on a four hour chart so ideally I wanted to like if these were all positive candles this could have been an eight nine ten this would have been an eleven working on a twelve if we slowly continued running up now I'm sure they wouldn't have been consecutive maybe we would have been on a ten of 13 also if this continued to go up this would have been one two three four five with three more candles so ideally I wanted to short this thing like late tonight like in eight hours from now like an eight to twelve hours from now and then all of my nines would have been aligned hopefully the one hour would have been as well but I took this trade now for those that are unhappy with this and there are haters everywhere let's go to my youtube channel and let's pull up a video from this morning and this comment I try to ignore all the trolls but this comment really bothered me or is it I mean there's so many bad comments look at this look at this see this is why like let's report that's hate speech boom it sucks that YouTube makes you do that okay so this was a legitimate comment tone I thought your number one rule was never sure Bitcoin no absolutely not you can sure bitcoin bitcoin is a bitcoin is fairly liquid and bitcoin is tradable too short what you don't short is scam coins because they're like easily moved right so the only scam coin that i've shorted was i be cash during their fork because that was just too simple of a trade to make money on so that was the only one i shorted but that was a fundamental event i was shorting the fundamental event I wasn't shorting the technicals I was shorting the fundamental are cluster off of their hard work so this is the comment that bothered me a kind of scam equalto wait until the price clearly drops and then claim last night I went short I've been telling you I was gonna go short for two days okay I'm sorry I did not have your personal phone number Desmond to call you and let you know that I'm about to enter a short trade ok I'm sorry I have other important things to do but if you knew how to trade you could have easily taken the same short trade as me because every sign was there okay so there you go so this is what really bothers me okay hey Sonny thanks for watching and sunny sunny decrease I've been on his channel sunny will attest that he probably spends more time managing the comment section than doing his streams because it's annoying as hell okay so so that's the so that's the situation here right I and no I don't have to you know I I've done enough live you know sample live trading for you guys so anyone could have taken on the short trade now when did I make this video I made this video five hours ago right so let's go to the hourly chart here's the hourly chart note mnsure it's going to the hourly chart let's go back five candles so one two three four five I made this video on this candle right here right so I mean even if you short it then you're in the profit and now it's up to you to decide what you're gonna do with that profit okay so because I will now the smart thing to do right now so my short trade took place oh man I just moved it my this is the one I want to move there okay my short trade should have taken according to the rule book I should have gone in how to crop your price but honestly the only reason I jumped the gun is because I was tired and I wanted to go to sleep that's the only reason why I mean I you can say I got lucky so I have a slightly higher game but there was no reason for me to shorten it over there I should have been a little more patient shorted later at a crappy er price for that short trade but that's okay so at this point I would even be comfortable putting a stop loss all the way over here but I'm not I'm gonna I'm gonna say hey my entry was at it was at like fifty to seventy nine it should have been around 50 to 50 ish let's go back to the ten minute chart like a safer entry would have been here oh no I don't want to move that man I wanna move this to the back visual order sent backwards visual order sent to back oh come on so annoying I can't get can't get that red line ah forget it like this is annoying I'm gonna get rid of this it's just in the way so here's the short trade I'm gonna go to ten minute chart I'm gonna do this the short trade suppose according to the Tunde mark rules though actually I could have shorted on a red one following a nine this is why I was gonna short I got lazy and I just wanted short earlier just had a feeling even if you shorted here you know I would be I mean setting up breakeven stop-loss is great do I have a break-even stop-loss right now on my what's going on like I'm tired like why is the slide so thin anyway I'm like take the magnet off like you can easily set up breakeven stop-loss at this point there's nothing wrong there you can even take some profit this is a swing trade guys I really think bitcoin is going to sell three thousand I have no reason to I jump the gun and start taking profits here this is not like a day trade this is a swing trade I'm confident that we're gonna go lower and I know we just went up in the last you know 15 minutes but I don't think that's gonna last and I I might set a break-even stop only because I'm not gonna be paying attention to the price of Bitcoin during the conference so I'll set a break-even stop to make sure I don't lose any money on my trade if it goes up I'll manage for now my stop-loss is actually at the top of that candle so I can still lose money on this trade if it goes against me but after this video is over I am gonna set a break-even stop-loss now the question is this show is not trading advice at all but if you short it when I did this video this morning then you would have shorted it right here where would your stop-loss be well unfortunately your stop-loss is the same your stop-loss is up there and now what you need to do if you short it late if you shorted Bitcoin at five thousand fifty dollars instead of five thousand three hundred dollars right what you now have to do is you have to wait for the next breakdown you have to wait for the breakdown of price to go below this Green Line you have to wait for the breakdown of 4890 it has to go below forty eight ninety it has to close below the setup trendline and if it does then you can set that stop loss to break-even but for now I would not set that stop-loss to break even because you probably you can easily get whipsawed out of a decent trade now if you really want to play it safe for your leverage is too big then yes you can set a break-even stop-loss that's pretty much it on Bitcoin I mean there's nothing more I can say I am now bearish I have now set it in two interviews this morning and probably last night with Ivan on tack that I am officially short this market I believe this was the bull trap I've been talking about for months and it's very likely that this week will actually close below $4,600 okay the market doesn't have to do what I tell it to do the market has its own mind I do not have influence over the market do you really think Novogratz is listening to me absolutely not I really have no control okay now let's talk about the let's take a look at gold silver and S&P real quick gold isn't really doing anything okay so I got a question Walter so you're asking what is the difference between my indicator and the free ones out there because I a hundred hours and over 20 thousand dollars was spent on making sure that my code is accurate with many of the bells and whistles that's really the only difference the difference is I don't know the accuracy or the effort that people put in into the free version of the same code so if you want to use the free version sure you can save ah two hundred and fifty dollars because it's just that's how much it is like it's cheap its one-time fee so it's up to you the difference is quality you are paying for quality you're also paying for educational videos on how to trade it that come along with it I just read the website right so just head on over to tone base calm and I really should have this a little more descriptive 23% and just head on over to indicator I when I when I go home in a few weeks I'll try to make this a little more descriptive and I'll try to explain why it's worth it to spend 250 bucks because of the effort put in in getting it right and you get educational videos and you go to a telegram group with everyone else that owns it which is getting a little spammy at the moment but I'm gonna clean that up as well what I have time to pay attention to okay let's get back to gold gold not interested read six of nine it'll probably keep going down its bearish silver is just ugly looking Oh silver looks absolutely horrible it's looking like it's gonna puke at along oil continues to look bullish platinum beautiful like across all time frames I mean like Bitcoin are for me shorting Bitcoin right here is the same as platinum look at platinum here is the let's go to the monthly chart of platinum platinum hit an aggressive and sequential 13 on a down candle and you know a nine is coming so a monthly chart warns you that platinum is is toppy the weekly gave you a what did it give you a combo 13 right at the high a reversal candle followed by an aggressive 30 and unfortunately the sequential isn't here yet but we can still get the sequential if the weekly if it pulls back up and makes a lower high you may still have another good chance to short platinum by the way platinum can still go back up to 1500 and it could set up an even better shorting opportunity from a from a risk perspective the daily on platinum I believe gave you a perfect nine and it did daily I'm platinum gave you an amazing selling opportunity right here oops right right there okay reversal candle plus on nine preceded by a sequential preceded by the combo followed by the aggressive shut up trend didn't even make it to a red nine pulled back up and is now reversing down like beautiful could you have timed it better let me look at the three day on this I don't normally look at three day charts I don't really care about it I have no idea now three day then really wasn't useful but I've never really looked at three days before let's go back to the one day let's zoom in further right let's take a look at the I guess we can look at the hourly because it's a futures market what day was the top where was the top so there is the hourly there's the high did see quiet could sequential have gotten you out or into a short on the hourly well you had a couple of combo routines right at the high not great you know how I wish this was an eight and then that would have made this a 9:30 not too high but like I said my favorite chart is the ten minute chart what are we looking at here this is March 20th the high came in on March 20th or March 21st you know I'm not gonna go into a ten minute chart it's just too granular and I don't want to waste any more time let's go to the SMP I'm gonna end this video in a few minutes actually I wanna I want to go relax before dinner tonight probably go to the sauna at the hotel or something I'm still bullish the SMP we're on a 6 of 13 countdown we're on a 6 of 9 setup it looks great on a daily chart I believe today's Friday no it's Thursday I don't know what day it is today's Thursday so you have another day so you're gonna close the week on up potentially 7-7 if the market goes up today and tomorrow you'll have a 7 set up 7 sequential the weekly is bullish 3 I mean there's no reason to be scared going into the weekend if I was a swing trader what I take some profit if the market Rises today and then rises tomorrow if the market acidity around 2900 what was the high the high was 29 4029 40 was the high right 29 40 was the high okay so what was the hot what's the high this week 2885 so I'll say this if the market is in the vicinity of 29 and here's what I mean by in the vicinity of 29 if the market is closer to 29 if the S&P is closer to 2900 then the current are then today then yesterday's close right where was yesterday's closed yesterday's clothes was 28 73 so the difference of those around 28 what's round 228 70 right so that means if the market is a gap let me rephrase it if the market is above 2890 if the market is above 2890 I would take some profit off the long trades going into the weekend I don't know if you have long trades on but if I have long trades on the SMP I would take not all the profit because it's bullish going into the weekend assuming we go above 2890 everything I'm saying now is the assumption that the market is trading above 2890 on Friday if the market is trading above 2890 on Friday I am looking at the 10 minute chart and I am trying to take my profit if the market just goes up up up up up up into 2,900 I will take that profit at 3:55 p.m. on Friday going into market close I will take some profit how much profit from the bullish trade it depends on the price action over the next 48 hours okay guys I talked about Tesla in recent videos I don't really have anything more to say Tesla is on is not in a tradable zone to me it's just not trendy if Mark is not trending traitor okay there will be a live stream guys there will be a live scene for the conference that live stream is gonna be brought to you by blocks live TV they are gonna do our live stream within an interview with them earlier today that interview will air at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time keep an eye on my Twitter keep an eye on blocks live dot TV Twitter or blocks live TV their website is blocks live dot TV I keep an eye on that their Twitter the interview was with me Giacomo Zuko and Adam back with in an interview in their studio looks exactly like this picture and they will be bringing us the live stream from the conference tomorrow and Friday all right guys okay on this note I'm gonna get going it's still not too late to get on a flight and come down to Malta and join us for understanding Bitcoin which is a great conference one last look at the ten minute chart of Bitcoin that's the four hour chart this is the ten minute chart now the last video I did was the price of a Bitcoin was approximately five thousand seventy dollars as I said in that video I have a short position on Bitcoin and it doesn't matter if you think that I now want Bitcoin to go down because of my short position it is totally irrelevant my short position is as of 50 to 79 mostly because I got lazy and wanted to go to sleep otherwise it would have been short at a lower price I kind of took a little bit of a chance but I'm okay and it was fine if this was an orderly decline I would have been adding to my short position I'm disappointed this short position is not as big as I wanted it to be I didn't think it would drop this fast I also thought that I would have had plenty of time to tell everyone at approximately the the the same price that I was short at but I immediately passed out and went to sleep and then it fell really quick and right now I will be break even stop-loss I have not taken any profit from this position if I did this position in my retirement account I would be showing it to you the way I showed you guys my long position this morning unfortunately I'm not allowed to short getc in my retirement account so I'm resort resorted to using unregulated exchanges and I can't give you any more details or I will be banned again alright guys it is 8:00 a.m. New York time it is 2:00 p.m. all the time you will I will probably not do a price stream even though Tyler and Leah are both gonna be here today maybe we will do it on Sunday but Sunday I have my trading workshop hopefully they're still here on Monday and we can do a video on Monday but we will see all right guys understanding Bitcoin come to Malta if not this year then definitely next year this conference is gonna be awesome talk to you all on the next one

39 thoughts on “Trading Bitcoin – Last Live Stream before Understanding Bitcoin Conf”

  1. In just about 12 months, btc has made a drop of over 80% from a peak of $19,800 to less than $4,000 and i wonder how silly those that kept talking of $100,000 and more look now. Seriously, how much more evidence do we need that cryptocurrencies are purely speculative bubbles that are best treated as such and milked at the moment? The only space for investing is in real companies doing actual business with real currency valuation. My forecast for the long term value of bitcoin is 0$, 0€, 0£, 0¥. Don’t get me wrong, i am not a crypto hater infact, i am above average financially but i still have a strategy which i implement with which i make a minimum of $30,000 monthly for a couple of months already. Even though i get assistance from Mr James Valentin with trade strategies and signals, i still trade on my own so i don’t have to grant anyone access to my trade account (funds). What i do is seek his opinion on the markets as he is a very seasoned analyst and trader and then i use his signals which are very simple to use in placing trades and in the process, i learn alot from him. You can mail him [email protected] com if you need his assistance too. A word of caution, never mix emotion with coins if you want to succeed and you have to be brutal as well i.e sell, buy, and trade when you have to following the rules and always seek help if you are not already a master trader and are not making good and consistent profit on your own already….

  2. said the one who gets paid in Bitcoins. Go sell at least half ur Bitcoins if u believe your wanna be analysis. No, the only thing he does is shorting GBTC, cause he stacks all his BTCs. WHat a joke.

  3. Thanks DJ! U remember that expencive shower u took some months ago? I like how u said they went to bars for drink i went home to start my computer to short ?? !

  4. Tone said the dip was over at 17k and now he tells the bottom is not 3k and we will barely make an new all time high. This guy have and will destroy lives. Bob loukas is the real deal.

    Also remember that at 7k in 2017 tone once again started spewing this 1.3k price target and everyone who belived him lost out on the 5k-20k run. Tone has never been right but words his predictions so he can eventually be right. Calling price targets with no time frames and people swallowing it like sheeps.

    Hey i have a prediction too. BTC will hit 6k, it is a magnet and the price will hit 6k. Pay me 0.1 BTC for more info on my trading stategies.

  5. I came to see how you would accept defeat. And yet you still target 1.5k LOOOOOL have fun buying more at 6k breakout.

  6. this is my 2nd comment in 2 years 1st I said i thought tone was a jerk but admitted I was wrong that was about a year ago just want to follow up tone has been mostly right on bc hasn't gone to 1300 but still it dropped then he said 5000 did not happen right away but did happen it you think anyone can be exact you are in a fantasy but he has been pretty close now he says 3000 why not he has not been long if your looking to get rich quick get out now if you look long term you will do well tone thanks for a good job well done I am n a total believer  he give me a good guide and is very well vrsed on charts and bitcoin sorry I ever said anything negitive

  7. Follow Perma Bear and BTC shorter Tone Vays for a chance to get REKT. Believers in freedom invest and go long in BTC. Short scalping is for those who only care about greed and themselves…..not good Karma at all. Trading short is not what BTC is about………go short this month of April and prepare for major losses. Mark my words!

  8. So say a 20x on 1,300 leaves us at 26,000 at the top and not 100,000 this video makes no sense so in a way 1,000 is too low then because i doubt the new top will only just beat the last one. 20x on 3,100k is 62,000k at the top so that sounds pretty good for a top from the current bottom.

  9. Tone, love your content! If you could do me and a lot of your followers a favor and give an overview at the end of your video of where you think BTC is going that would be great. Short term, like one week to a month. I have been following you for a while and your long term picture has not changed but your short term/swing trades change all the time. It can be hard to understand where you think the price is going in the next week. Thanks for everything!… Econ grad student who is trying to catch the bottom! I have my money in tether right now and am pretty mad I missed this pump….Percentages on how confident would be invaluable.

  10. Hey tone, love your free content mate. Great to hear a rational BTC analysis with all the bulls on Twitter. Do you have a tutorial video on how you set up a trade using your sequential method? Cheers.

  11. Hi tone , here is my TA: there is a chance of 33% we go up , there is also a chance of 33 % we go down , and there is a chance of 33 % we go sideways , and 1 % chance we go to zero. Cheers !

  12. Someone please tell me what did say Tone? BTC is going down or going to 6000? I am realy sorry my English is so bad. Thanks for your kindness!

  13. I have been folowing all of these crypto infulencers and clowns like Datadash, Cryptobud ect… And have come to the conclusion Tone is the only legit one, unlike everyone else after the BTC bubble popped all of them kept saying their followers we are gonna continue going up and propagating every single bulltrap. Tone was the only one that was bearish.

  14. Your conference cost one bitcoin ( 5 grand ) ??? Gee, you are great, but no wonder you an afford to be a jet setter.

  15. Bicks Weir says that his comic book analysis (and webbots & fortune tellers) suggests that Veritaseum (a totally centralized Jamaican shitcoin) is going 1:1 with BTC. The dude is completely delusional.

  16. It's no secret volatility decreases with time that's part of what happens because of the Lindy effect. There are other factors that are going to contribute to the next ones you arent taking into account.

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