Is Bitmex Killing Crypto?



what's going on everybody my name is Danny welcome back to crypto 99 ante where we had very little movement and really anything I mean you'd be you're hard-pressed to scroll down and find things you know more than one or one and a half percent up or down and in a given day I mean yes there's gonna be some coins that are we had a couple decent trade setups today means salt had a good pretty good day go chain which was I trade that I tweeted about that we've been scalping profits off of had a really nice really nice day today but a lot of the big industry drivers had very very not poor days there was dead like they didn't really do a lot so I thought it was kind of fitting and I've been prepping a little bit did I want to make this video that I not um and I honestly kind of feel the need to make it so the question of the day is is bit max killing cryptocurrency and I don't want that to be anymore sensationalist than it kind of already is but I think you could make a work announced all those tomorrow you could make a legitimate case that bit max and the allure that it causes the both traditional retail investor institutional investor and I mean any really investor of grip to the allure that it that it kind of hangs out and from your face is kind of it is killing the space slowly but surely and I don't want to come across as a hypocrite I use bit max but I'm a rather risk-averse person I use it with low leverage I don't use a ton of money on it the predominant base for my trading money is on Finance I use a very little bit on on bit max just to kind of play around with mainly to have fun shorting ripple whenever I feel the need to but here I'll make a relatively decent case so obviously the market is is you know pretty dead today but was you look take a look at Bitcoin volatility if you just look back you can look on the top of my screen let's just go back into June July August like not even anything that long ago we're not talking you know years ago as I move you can see I'm circling it right here and as I do that so look just left am i up my mouse and you'll see percentage those are daily percentage changes and you see a lot and there's some but mostly there two three eight look at that four there was a tiny one their net change look at that one one will just round up to one eight five 1/2 1/2 to 1 5 1/2 but there's a lot more above 1 then there are closer to 0 and now let's look this month let's just work backwards 0.4 0.1 and at that point 4 I'm sorry these just are 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 7.6 8.3 to 0.36 yeah we had a good day threes but 2 9 to 8 there's way more of these look at that look at all these under 1 right here maybe one if you're lucky there's a three mixed in there but there's very very little volatility and we're just kind of bouncing around the same number and the pick one makes it 1% move and everybody gets a hard-on well the reason for that I think is pretty it is can be attributed to bit max so let's take a look at this let's look at the volume the weekly volume on Bitcoin it's no big secret weekly volume has been on the steady decline in in Bitcoin you can see it pretty pretty cut-and-dry not rocket science right since the top it's been on a steady decline in volume well let's take a look at the xbt pair which is the the bitcoin pair on on bit mechs it's not actually BTC it's xbt holy moly so the X BT pair has had a pretty strong correlative increase in in volume while traditional traded Bitcoin volume is decreased this is increasing yeah sure you've had a week or two where it wasn't quite as dramatic as it was you know one or two months ago in July in August but you're still working on an increased net volume rather than how compared to to traditional BTC pairs and let's look at some other evidence Bitcoin price ends in September at lowest volatility in 15 months it was the lowest in 15 months let's take a look back on this X BT pair look at where we were at 15 months ago I mean there was almost no bit next volume like bit mix was a essentially I can Oh buddy it was just kind of was it available yeah but for a very select few back in July there was virtually no volume on there nothing near where it is today and here's something it's even more alarming so I talked about increases in volume and D increases in volume on bit max and decreases in volume on traditional BT C pairs it's not even that one is decreasing in one is increasing it's a the rate and B the percentage of that this volume actually makes up of the total daily traded volume when you look here bit max thirteen point six six percent of all the daily traded volume is from bit max 714 million dollars in Bitcoin is traded on pit mix a day and I would be I would I would venture to guess that that creeps over a billion regularly on a day where you have that's on a day where you had like 0.1 or 0.2 percent volatility imagine on days we've got two three four five and you've got a lot of people actively day trading on pit mix with margin you've got an immense amount I would assume that that's well over a billion on some day sometime maybe even creeps towards a billion and a half if you got a really really active day but this is a problem because look at some of your exchanges where you used to see bitcoins traded a lot finance doesn't even make up 3% of the daily traded volume you have to scroll look at this I mean you got to scroll down where is a where's is G Dax where is coinbase where are all these other like you just don't see it you don't see a lot of these same players that you'd saw at one time not that long ago trading Bitcoin because people are flipping two-bit mechs and the flip to bit mechs may be a consequence of that low volume and of their of the low volatility volatility starts to squeeze people want to get more out of their money more bang for their buck they go to a place where they can trade with leverage here's something else to consider this is just the daily volatility index I kind of talked about before making an even stronger case above kind of what I just talked about is as the volatility decreases people want to get that bang for their but you're back here in January in February I mean your daily evolved daily volatility index is you know 7s and the six isn't John 5:4 this is the 30-day volatility so it takes a 30 day aggregate look at that four down to five minute three – we're all the way down now in the one-percent range it's like we're we're not doing real hot the last 30 days the average is 1.73 not a strong chart I mean we can just go the 1-year chart we're way below where we were last dissent over last November and the price is about comparable we're wave we're half of what we were me 3.2 and you're looking at the 1.9 one point eight one point five six range so we're half of what we were their monthly turnover this kind of bothers me I looked it because this is just that March this isn't even when bit Mex really really really took off in you know the back half of this year middle to back half of the year look at the monthly turnover rate of increase in u.s. dollars unbelievable the amount of people that are flocking to this platform I mean you can look at exchange rankings on coin market cap and all kinds of different stuff but bit max trades one pair one pair and is is the number three ranked exchange there's only one market that's tracked there's 56 on bit thumb it's bear I mean if this had a couple more pairs on bit Mex guy would be insane financed the entirety of the exchange only averages a hundred and thirty million dollars in daily traded volume and is only two hundred million over seven-day spans and the 30-day volume is barely half that of bit max volume on bit max was down because the volatility was so low when volatility increases obviously volume is gonna increase on that exchange but we'll sorted by seven-day volume bit max takes the cake with one bear one pair that blows my mind that blows my mind and it does that for a couple reasons a peep don't realize or not really trading Bitcoin they're just trading a contract based on what the price of Bitcoin could be if they're right or wrong and be it really I think is a problem for retail investors it's a problem for new investors coming in because everybody wanted to make a case is what kind of take it back to the BTC chart here as we that was the long chart sorry let's take it back to the BTC chart and take it back to the daily because that's a little look at it so the people that are coming into the space are notoriously whether it's good or bad is left to be determined newer investors people that because I mean yeah crypto people say is a get-rich-quick scheme but it's not there are traditionally newer investors or not your legacy style investors that have been investing in standard commodities for thirty years and made their living trading Gold's like gold for twenty years and are now in current that's not your cryptocurrency investor it's a much younger crowd it's a much more eclectic crowd and it's honestly a lot less financially savvy crowd and when you get those people coming in and you will lure hey you can go on bit max and trade with twenty five times what you actually have in the gains you make and be crazy and you have all these people talking about all the big massive trades they make on bit max like I've been hesitant to make a video on this cuz like yes I use it a little bit yeah I talk about it a little bit if I'm gonna take a small a low leverage long or short I'll tell you but that's not like the cornerstone of my of this channel because I think it's counterintuitive to actually people getting interested in crypto because you've got to be able to trade crypto currency not contracts based on the price because all that does is distract from what the real goal is in my opinion like I I I think it's it's a place where people go to die is where bit mix is it's a place that can shake out the retail investor faster than you can even buy Bitcoin somebody buys a thousand dollars with a Bitcoin doesn't understand bit max see somebody do it on YouTube goes their tray with leverage it gets liquidated in six hours that's their cryptocurrency experience you think they're gonna tell a lot of people about it fuck no no they're not going to they're gonna tell people that Oh gets a scam because they got they got liquidated they lost all their money they're never getting back into it and Nouriel Roubini is right if they've ever heard of him if not one of the other crypto haters is right somebody that just hates everything about it their rights to scam perpetrated by this these fictitious nameless faceless people that want to just take your money and they're only in it for themselves that's the stigma that will come forth if we keep pushing people to bit mix so that's why I'm pushing people to buy Nance the bit Rick's the Polonia acts 2g Dax to Gemini to Hugh ob – cuckoo – all these other exchanges that actually are trading the underlying asset because that is where we need to spend most of our time bit mechs is great but use it as a complement to your main stay trading portfolio if you're gonna do it if you're gonna invest invest leave let's pump the brakes on bit mix let's bets that's the theme of this video is pump the brakes on pit mix because if we go too far down this rabbit hole it's it's gonna be really hard to pull everyone back out and to get the people that were in the space that came in lost a bunch of money try to make it back on bit Mex and lost even more it's gonna be tough to get them back in if we keep pushing everybody in that direction so not to be a naysayer doomsday conspiracy theorist but I do think that bit max is having a slightly negative effect on the space as a whole it's leading to a lot more bad activity on the underlying asset class anon derivatives based exchanges like a finance like a bit Rick style exchange lead to a lot more bot activity there because a lot of the guys there they're chasing the mythical dollar they're chasing the unicorn on on bit mechs trying to make those big percentages because they're enamoured by what one YouTube guy did one time who doesn't show you all the money's lost all I showed you is that one trade he did on bit Mex and he made 88% on in a day people freak the hell out and go there and lose all their money anyway hope you guys got something how do video.this shine some light a little bit on what bit mix is and isn't and hopefully honestly deterred you from trying to use it a little bit I'm not saying that you should never use it I'm not saying that but I'm saying the level and which it is used now is unhealthy for the space and I think we need to kind of we need to reel it out a little bit but again thank you guys for watching I do hope you did get something out of the video if you did hit the thumbs up button as well subscribe notification bow down below follow me on Twitter join our discord and if you haven't checked out the patreon all three links for those will be in the description box below but again thank you guys for watching I hope I brought you the value I aim to bring you every day and look forward to bringing that value next time

16 thoughts on “Is Bitmex Killing Crypto?”

  1. Well considering there's a rebate for shorting, it's not surprising that shorters would go there. Not a great choice for longers though, the fees at 100x would destroy you like in forex. However, unless there's a general down trend, shorts are at a natural disadvantage. Why? Because when something goes down a certain dollar amount and then goes back up by that same dollar amount, it actually went down by a lower percentage than it went back up. To demonstrate, suppose the price is $10 and it drops to $9, that's a 10% drop. Then if it goes from 9$ back up to $10 it went up by 11%. Went down 10%, went up 11%. See the difference there? You're at a 10% disadvantage every time you guess price direction wrong. Granted right now volatility in btc is lower than 10% so the disadvantage is not that bad but it still exists as the square of the average volatility in any particular time frame if the market stays flat, like it is now. To constantly profit on shorting, the market would have to be in a steady down trend of at least the square of the average volatility. Sounds like an Einstein theory but it's simple math really.

  2. Off topic….love to get thoughts on BOTS trading. What’s this mean for the non bot trader? 2nd- would a coin team trade own stock with funds to maintain a coin position and or fluff the price….and to what end?. Swing some odd trades ie-5$ that might push a price up 10 satoshis…. updates are awesome

  3. people can blame bitmex all they want , ive been using it for a year and a half & i make money and i love it. everyone else is only salty because all they do is hodl hodl hodl and are losing money , why are people flocking to bitmex ? BECAUSE THEY ARE LATE IN THE SHORTING GAME . and people who use bitmex and go anything over 25x leverage are just stupid and deserve to lose money. and plus even if all we do is trade derivatives end of the day we are still making REAL BITCOIN

  4. Stop worrying about lack of speculation on the spot market, this will not kill crypto! Eventually prices will rise naturally due to adoption, not speculation. We had too much of that already, and that's what causes bubbles. Crypto DOESN'T NEED speculation if it really is a valuable technology. Stop trying to accelerate the natural course of things, or you sound like you want people to keep buying crypto simply due to the greater fool theory.

  5. They just know how to take your money, just like all the other exchanges. Best to join a community owned p2p, Localcoinswap!

  6. Agree for the most part. Bitmex creates fake volume in a way since it’s not connected to the 16 mill BTC, or how many of the altcoins are actually in circulation. I disagree that it discourages people from crypto. The few people I know who got liquidated, can’t stop talking and thinking about how they can get more money deposited there. They feel they know what they did wrong and are anxious to ‘conquer’ the system with some winning trades. True casino gamblers mentality!

  7. I personally am not a fan of BitMex and I'm glad I never touched it when i first got in. I had no idea that BitMex was ranked #3. Insane! Thanks for making this video!

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