Hyperwave – Zones And Fields In Bitcoin Analysis (With Tone Vays)



hi everybody this is hyper wave yes I'm in a library we're about to show this one it's also a phat flash I can't even talk flash blood outside so it's quite an interesting day or a good day to read we're gonna cover Bitcoin specifically today and then this morning and then we're actually gonna come back to you and market closed at 4:00 p.m. and talk traditional markets and some other stuff I'm gonna pass it over to you Thai and then I am going to quickly be a nerd because people always ask at least Tyler you guys kept asking me it makes me sad um what our favorite books are and books that we recommend for ta and in general but as you guys know we don't just stick with TA so we are gonna show you some of them as anyways I'll switch to mute I I'm sorry that I didn't put reycarts wild here but I'm pretty sure you're the one that has that book yeah I got a bunch of those hi everybody we're you know we are going to do two florals today this one is gonna we're gonna try to keep them both to about 30 minutes but this one is going to be on just something I've been thinking more and more about and I'll explain why in just a second but it has to do with zones and fields and I'll explain what I mean by that in technical analysis but particularly with Bitcoin there's something strange about Bitcoin as an asset class that tends to magnify the effects of these things and I'll explain what I'm what I mean we're going to just look at one chart today a bitcoin chart and i've got three different zones drawn on it and i've talked about all three of them over the last year but i just kind of want to summarize what it means to me and how it might be helpful to you but first I'm going to let Lea go through some of these books that both of us really like will explain the Jack Welch one a little bit more because in our webinar this weekend we're going to spend a lot of time on GE General Electric it's actually going through to hyper way this is 190 years ago long before Jack Welch and one basically after Jack Welch turned the reins over to someone else and someone pointed out in Twitter that I had made an error saying that the current GE hyper wave had completed which clearly is not true the original one did in fact the original one ninety years ago was the perfect hyper wave it's the archetypical hyper wave both Socrates and I gone through all kinds of hyper waves to find the one that's the closest to the archetype and GE 90 years ago happens to be that one the one that we are currently in is not it is the most bizarre hyper wave I've ever seen and that will explain more about that not today but over the weekend in our hyper wave webinar but for now Leah why do you just quickly show people which books you picked out among the many that you and I both have and love alright this is gonna be quick guys and we'll talk about it on another vlog you can screenshot well we'll put a list out later I just being a super nerd um my dad counted and he's he's making me donate all them apparently I have three thousand books right now so it was actually kind of hard trying to find these and I will lastly say I just finished Neil Gaiman Neverwhere because I love sci-fi and so if anyone reads Neil Gaiman that's actually a really good one but okay really quickly so let's try to get just the picture and Thor's beneath us okay some important ones let me see if I can read these the physics of Wall Street we have Black Swan Goethe watch your back is gonna be an interesting one that we talked about animal spirits killer rude Kyler's favorite if I could try to think that that's through which is you know Edwards and McGee a of stock trends alchemy of Finance Soros irrational exuberance again Shiller sorry I know I have a reverb but this is hard to do because some are upside down guide to mutual funds and then actually the encyclopedia of technical market indicators okay let me try really quickly okay uh winning Jack Welch that's what Tyler was talking about um Tyler's gonna laugh me but what did I throw in my favorite I'm obsessed with Sherlock Holmes for a sir Conan Doyle but there's a reason that I put that in that hopefully one day we and probably pretty soon that I think it's related to finance misbehavior markets is actually my favorite I'm obsessed with Mandelbrot and Tyler and tone actually I don't know if you remember Tyler you probably do because you remember everything but he actually has a lot of background in studying Mandelbrot okay liquidation um that's an interesting one it's a ethnography study anyways intelligent investor obviously that's Graham the futures game that would even get you into poker I will stop let's go okay very good I'm gonna do a quick screen share and what we're looking at is Bitcoin and I've got a bunch of parallel lines drawn on it and I want to show you why I'm going to start with the the oldest one which are the two at the top which run parallel at ten thousand one hundred and eleven thousand one hundred and back when all of this was going on we're looking at a weekly chart but back in early 2018 when the hyper wave of Bitcoin broke down and it became fairly evident early that something was going on in the form of support and resistance going back to this area as we were going up and there was no real evidence in the middle of this but it turned out later that there was another area down here at about ten thousand one hundred so you're looking at two lines one is eleven thousand one hundred and one's ten thousand one hundred now if I break this down to a daily chart just so we can get a little more detail and then bring it back up to where we were at the top and now expand it again early on back in February and March Lee and I started calling this zone the valley of death from this Tennyson poem and the reason was because I concluded that as long as we stayed above that eleven thousand one hundred off of this initial drop over here which took us all the way down to the eleven thousand area in fact on that particular candle we drop down to 59 11001 59 that was that wick spiked bottom it fooled so many people because then it reversed enclosed at 14,000 approximately then we ran all the way up as most of you remember to close to 17,000 before coming back down to this area this area started back with this wick and there was really nothing over on this side of the chart other than a very large green candle that took off from these unbelievably odd two daily candles here this little consolidation was basically at the bottom of this range that was going to develop months later and the top of this green candle is very close to the top of this range that would develop later but other than that there was no real clue that this sort of thing would develop now let me just talk a little bit about what you're looking at everybody knows or most people know or anyone that's listened to us or tone or a number of the other technical analysts know that horizontal trend lines tend to be very very powerful trend lines but we have talked before about the fact that there is no line here you can draw a line but there is no line what it really is is it's a series of points that begin to accumulate in a certain area by which you can draw a line between those points but once you've drawn a horizontal line what you need to understand is it isn't really a line line has no depth to it it's a series of points and a series of points are infinitesimally small so if we drew this line thinner and thinner and thinner and thinner finally disappear what it really is around a line is there's a field almost like in physics that extends above the center of the line and below the center of the line and it dissipates as you move away from the center of the line in both directions but something very odd happens every once in a while and you get two parallel lines in which between the two of those lines becomes a very powerful field almost like a magnetic field in which when you're above it you're drawn down to it and when you're below it you're drawn up to it but as you try to get through it there's a force that begins to repel you at the other side of the field now I don't want to get too archaic here or too ethereal but this is an important concept in general when using trend lines because trend lines can be angular trend lines that go up or down and they they can give you a lot of clues about what everybody else is thinking but when you get two of them together in these hid in these parallel fashions and they are horizontal they become unbelievably powerful now what happened on this daily chart is when we finally wit below it here and whipped down below it here right through what was going to become a new line down here and we bounced all the way back up and off of this original one we ran all the way back up to what I call a Phase six of a hyper wave this being the phase five down the Phase six back up and everything since then is a phase seven down but what I want you to see is the detail that occurs as you get into this parallel region here we have one two three four five six seven eight days basically in a row in which we entered that field and got shot back up to the up side then we finally broke down through it on these three days tried to get back up on each of the three and couldn't do it and fell all the way down to new lows in this particular bear market there were more to come but this is important because these lows begin to define a new set of parallel channels that we're going to end up down here that we'll take a look at in just a minute the bounce off of these lower horizontal lines brought us back up two days in a row trying to get through it didn't do it and then blew through it but couldn't get through the top one two three four or five days we had one big wick above it closed right down on it and then gave it up again not to be denied for five days we built up some steam and then blew back into it ran up to the top of it for four days tried to maintain price above it and couldn't do it and it all fell away we came back and tested it and then fell away again and went down to lower closing lows on this one now I'm particularly interested in this because so many bitcoiners and crypto people were so certain that off this double bottom that that was the end of the bear market and that this run up was going to keep going up and keep going up and maybe even get to new all-time highs both tone and I resisted this move up saying that we didn't think it was going to get back above 10,000 I said it and I used the number 10,000 100 because that was the bottom line I thought that it would run out of gas it did it didn't even wick above that point before dropping back and then we started this amazing series of double lines double horizontal lines with a very powerful field that was generated if we go all the way over to the left of the chart I'm sticking with the daily for now we'll take it up to the weekly one as we conclude this but you can see where these were generated from they were generated from this consolidation and this top which then became the beginning of this field with these two candles now it took many months after that that was November it wasn't until three months later in February that we tested that on this big spike low that a lot of people remember where we actually dropped down to 59 20 then we went back up into this upper area and came back down and on this we had one – let's give it three or four wicks that tried to get into this lower zone and couldn't do it then we had to run up to the 10,000 area before it failed then we come back down so let's just concentrate on the beginning of this range that goes somewhere in the 5800 is somewhere in the 6300 I didn't try to draw these lines perfectly but anyone that's followed our vlogs know that I repeated all the way through April May June July August September that these two lines were very very important and that we were going to break them according to hyper wave theory but what I'm talking about right now has nothing to do with hyper wave theory it's just this observation that I've made about Bitcoin specifically and the use of these parallel channels to become fields that become almost opaque in between the two lines they're so powerful and you can clearly see it here as you drop consolidate in the middle for a number of days almost a week try to get below it suck back up to the top of it try to run it away from it get sucked back down to the top of it have this big run up to 8,500 that a lot of people were very excited about because of these huge green wicks this 8,500 area is now very very important to me I said before we broke 6,000 that if we could get above 8500 I could turn bullish on Bitcoin my reasoning was that every time we came down into this zone this parallel zone and then what repelled back up to the upside each one of these tops got lower and lower and lower and lower and you know that as the triangle that tone began drawing and everybody began talking about and looking at half of everybody said you're crazy we're bottoming and we're gonna go to new highs some people said we're going to break down below that triangle tone particularly and he had his own targets I had my own reason for getting more and more negative which was a Phase two trendline that was coming in at this angle right at this point where it finally broke but throughout all of that I kept in mind these parallel lines and just notice that every time we came back down into it the bottom resisted and you got Wix you got above it tried to get above it and it pulled it back down into it did it again and again and again until finally it all collapsed okay now here's why I'm talking about this I'm actually a little amazed at my own observation about these next two lines I have no explanation fundamentally or technically why what I'm telling you today I find to be very important and I think needs a lot of work by other technicians and other people but notice if I come over to the left of the chart that before we really got off on this run above the 3000 level where we really started to accelerate into what was a phase two and a phase three and finally the ultimate top after a phase four in a hyper wave that we had this long period of consolidation that describe to a certain extent both of these lines long before we even ran up where here I'm just you know so what we're all talking about the same thing price tried to get above and one two three four five days in a row couldn't do it drop back to the bottom of it look at all the wicks one two three four five six seven eight weeks in a row they tried to get below that red line well what was that red line it was nothing there was nothing there I've drawn these lines in months later but then just taking it back to see you know what was the progenitor of these lines we looked at a couple of things on the previous two parallels but this one really interests me then we try to break up above it and look what happens when you get above it wick wick wick wick wick wick try again lower highs one two three four five wicks and finally a body below the top line then you drop and you finally get below those two lines but then look what happens three days later right back into it another wick into it couldn't make it five days in a row trying back up to the top line one two three four five six seven eight more days in a row before we finally take off okay now let's come over to my call after the break below the 6,000 area into this new zone at the that we're now looking at okay I've got to keep doing this and with that go here go here okay now look at this huge amount of space in terms of time from October of 2017 for a full year these lines had no power whatsoever mainly I would suggest because of these lines above it it kept all of the action and these lines above it that kept all of the action below these kept all the action above until we broke down through it now I have been saying ever since these huge drops that took place in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 days basically one week that because we cut through what a lot of people thought around the 4,800 to 5,000 area should be support including myself I had been predicting that if and when we break down below 6,000 we would find good support at 5,000 but the market doesn't do what you think it's going to do or what you wanted to do it does whatever the entire voting public in the form of investors and speculators vote for at the moment that it occurs and when panic comes in you can blow right through things like that 5,000 suppose it's support line and there was reason to think 5,000 could be some support because of this peak over here right at the 5000 level and tone talked about that extensively as we were going up and going down but this is what really interests me now I'm beginning to feel well I'm not sure exactly how I feel about these lines because I have been on the other side of the argument against 4 or 5 of what I who I consider to be some of the best technical analysts I've run into will eewan been Zen and tone and others that are looking for a move up to the 5000 level and some even 6000 or higher and I do not dismiss that I think that's very possible however I keep saying and I have said all the way from back here that I thought the 4000 of 4,200 area would hold prices beneath it and I had no idea when I said that at what this would look like over the next four months but just take a look at what happens when you get up to 4200 one two three four five days wicks above and then gets rejected down to the bottom and then finally collapses come back into it one two three four five six days one of those days got all the way up over 42 and then collapsed beneath it one two three four days collapsed stayed beneath it for a long time and then this is where everybody started getting really excited once again because these huge green spikes and once again this time we cut through the lower end the first wick got close to 4200 the second got up to 40 186 and then collapsed again now we've come back up to the lower end and we've got one two three four five six days in a row and I can't predict that we are now going to collapse again all I'm saying is I think I've just introduced a tool to all of you particularly for Bitcoin I've done this analysis with many other stocks and indexes and other things but I've never seen quite the resilience or the power of these parallel fields then I am seeing in Bitcoin someday hopefully we'll understand a lot more about the volatility of this particular asset class for all the big macro reasons that we all talk about having to do with debt and credit and possibly a new solution to the problem with this weird little thing that we that has been named Bitcoin has something to do with the size of the moves but also something to do with the creation of things like hyper waves and why consentual worked so well on it and now I'm introducing this concept of what I call fields or zones made up between parallel lines and I've gone on longer than I wanted to but I just thought it was very interesting at least for me and I hope I hope everybody got something out of that we will try to go into more detail once I know more about what this thing really is because I don't but in any case I'm going back to my partner well you have two partners today and what is that I through tonin right now so since you ended by saying that we don't fully know what it means usually this person in name tone has opinions as well about what things mean tone can you have enough Wi-Fi you there hey guys hold on I have to get a speaker I wasn't as prepared for this as I thought I was and for everybody else listening tone just went live right before us and yeah sorry about that John I didn't mean to step on your toes we need to coordinate a little more well in the meantime Tyler was that was really really interesting all right well while someone sets up what's your favorite book I already know well I got the technical analysis of stock prices only because it was my first introduction to technical analysis and I just absorbed it completely I loved what I saw that was back in the early 1970s somebody told me about it the book was published back in the late 1940s but I had not been exposed to it and it's very basic it's a great way for people to start on technical analysis okay it's good we have we got tones of tone please give us because sorry that we missed it your show a little bit summation of what you were saying the title said optimism so little summation and then I'll have you and I if you don't mind I know that you're attracted back but thank you and then you and Tyler would love to hear if you know Tyler what you think based on what we just said – yeah no I mean I was watching what you guys are doing well yeah like a stack of books there oh oh ignoring the on come a scalable shirt awesome I miss Tom I missed the first few moments of your stream but basically I do like this break out I mean this is not the first time I've been trying to be optimistic at about 4,000 you know it's like my third go around now as you guys know I'm a big believer that the more times you hit support the more likely you are to break it and the more times you hit resistance the more likely you are to break it and we are now flirting with 4,000 for the third time since dropping to 3,000 which to me increases the probability of breaking it to the upside I'm fairly consistent on this for the same reason I was very sure 6,000 would break down I am getting more and more confident that 4000 will break up I mean the it's just a symmetric market now we also have plenty of room to go up without endangering the bear trend even if we go up to six or seven thousand the bear trend is still intact just like Tyler said the $8500 zone is immensely critical as of right now I would need a move above 8500 to admit that the bottom is in and as long as 8,500 doesn't break and that I'm still expecting lower prices now what I would love to see is establish a lower high on par with the clarity of the $8,500 high if we could go up significantly above 4,000 and by significantly I mean anywhere about five or six or even above six up to seven and then a spectacular rejection then that becomes the new element to become a bull for me anyway I don't want it to be too high because now you're getting into is it close enough to 8500 or not so the absolute perfect scenario is a move to the five to six thousand dollar range a rejection they are going sub three thousand and now that gives us you know a lot let's just say if that happens it will make my 2020s a lot easier because then no matter what I'm close enough to calling the low and I'm a lot sooner and a lot closer to the low to calling a new bull market so that's really what I'm praying for at this point and that's my outlook on it as a medium-term general idea of where prices headed that's that that's great and I certainly can't in don't disagree with anything you said other than I think it'll be almost impossible to get above the 6000 zone I think it'll be highly improbable to get to the 5000 zone for some of the reasons I just talked about let me just make one comment about what you said in terms of the number of times either support and/or resistance are KITT one of the things that I've observed is where you have if you are in a bear market which we clearly are in Bitcoin areas of resistance to the drop in price I would agree with you that support here is like 10,000 that we're able to bounce prices often at a couple of times before they gave away then becomes areas of resistance and it's areas of resistance in a bear market which means that it becomes very difficult no matter how many times you hit that from the underside that you're going to break it I disagree that if you hit at two three or four or five six seven times it's gonna break not in a bear market in a bear market it will become stronger and stronger as resistance and more and more people will will start assuming that that's a place to take now when we drop down to 6,000 in a bear market which we did 6,000 becomes support but it's in a bear market and what support in a bear market means is the number of times you hit it it grows in terms of the probability it's going to break which it finally did off of a number of things my phase two line tones triangle the consents EA was still in full down mode it had to toan said it had to break I said it had to break very other few people did and it broke okay let's take us down to the 4200 to 4000 zone we are still in a bear market that means if 4040 200 it held on the way down it could have become support for a period of time it didn't we cut through it like butter and now we're still in a bear market but underneath that overhead resistance and in that instance that's why I keep saying I think it's going to be very difficult to get through that zone because we're still in a bear market Tom yeah no I guess some viewers should be very happy because they under the impression that Tyler and I have never disagree on anything but we clearly disagree on this for two forty two hundred dollar area because I believe that even in a bear market you were it's it's starting to get that like if we fall from here right like if Tyler is right again under $4,200 rejection for the third time because you've already called the $4,200 rejection twice very accurately and I continue to say that we're likely to break above it and we can both be right next week or we might have already been right considering how Bitcoin is dropping today so the Bitcoin once again get rejected from this forty to four thousand to $4,200 zone if it did and we drop down to thirty seven hundred and then come back to the $44,000 zone now I will start drawing the ascending triangle so once again I don't know how many times we have to hit forty two hundred to break it but with every time we hit it I believe we are more likely to break out and I guess this is where Tyler starts to be a little bit the opposite of me because eventually every bear market ends and one of the best ways to be I mean it's not the best way to identify the end of a bear market but it's the best way to get into a safe trade to the bullish side after the bear market is to identify an ascending triangle that is breaking out of resistance and one of that resistance is four thousand three thousand two thousand or six thousand it doesn't really matter I am I am looking for an ascending triangle to eventually end the bear market the way an ascending triangle ended in 2015-16 to kick off the big bull market I wanted it to happen later this year at a lower price but if it happens here it happens here do I think that this will be the end of the bear market probably not because even the break out of this ascending triangle will still keep us under the $6,000 it's very critical resistance that has a chance to take us to new lows but I am I am optimistic here about 4,200 is going to break well and Torrance had a lot of very important things there number one is he and I often disagree on many things but not on any of the big things not on the the big conclusions to be drawn with the weight of the evidence when we're talking about these kind of things when I say 4042 is overhead resistance I'm not giving it more than a 75 percent probability of turning things down when we were up at 6,000 because of all kinds of technical things that were going on not only hyper wave and consents EO but the descending triangle the gigantic descending triangle and many other things to stop in Reverse points my my confidence that we were going to break down below 6,000 was 80% plus so the scenarios that tone just drew our could very easily happen all I'm talking about is the probabilities I see having to do with support and resistance areas being different in ball markets and bear markets in bull markets what tends to happen is overhead resistance the number of times you hit on it you finally break it to the upside in down markets the support that you get even like it's six thousand with a number of hits will tend to break down but you can't reverse those things equally and say the same is true with support and resistance between bull and bear markets there's a and I don't know how big the difference is but it's a perfect it's a probability difference of occurring in if we were above 4,000 and bouncing off of it here then five and six thousand are clearly in my mind reliable targets to the upside but since we're below that level trying to get through it I I continue to lean in the direction that the probability is that we will not be able to get through it and you know most importantly it doesn't matter it doesn't matter because bitcoin is still in a bear market now what does matter is if what tone is describing could be the launching pad of a new bull market then then it's a very important distinction but his tone just said that's not what he is concluding at this point but that's the only way you get into a new bull market from where we are right here it is to take step by step and then if everybody out there voting by buying or selling begins to increase their optimism that we can get up to 5,000 then blow through 6,000 at some point then get up to 8500 at some point we're in a bull market folks and every other technical indicator will show that the one that won't will be hyper wave because hyper wave says we've got to go down to a thousand we haven't done it I would love for this to be the one time that we don't see that happen but as we sit here today every one of my technical indicators are pointing to the fact we are smack in the middle of a bear market mainly stop in Reverse points consents EO as well as hyper wave and all this overhead resistance that i just drew in terms of these parallel zones so anyway that's great Tom thanks for bringing us up to speed on that and we're yeah go ahead what I was gonna say was over the last couple of streams I've been looking at this other metric of mining profitability very interesting I love it if you get a chance see if he can put that on a linear chart because the numbers they're off the scale see if you can put that on a linear chart on weekly and there's no candles involved there maybe on weekly there might be candles and see what your what hyper wife says about that chart great because I based on my analysis of you know prior highs and lows that chart did bottom out now there's still a little bit more room to the downside from looking at prior history but it does give you a slightly different perspective and I've been finding that chart pretty interesting yeah I do too ever since you somebody sent it to you I think or post of it and you jumped all over it and then I have listened to you on your last two broadcast about it I must say I don't really understand I understand what its implications are I just don't understand what the elements are that have gone into it and how accurate they are and I heard you on your last one not today's but yesterday's where you were going back and trying to analyze did we actually get back to the prior peak or not and kind of the way the scale was drawn or something so I'll screw around with it and see if I can't come up with another way of showing it because it is very put it was a Socrates put Socrates ah yeah Socrates that'd be great I bet easy air all the ones again I will throw them on uh so while I while I throw them on and send the link you guys just want to make a quick note because it's still I think pretty much the only day I did ask you before tone I really liked your answer but to ride on the back of CBOE and the like the latest news and what you were saying that it really wasn't the best way to buy bitcoins anyways or to trade do you think that any of that news will affect the price at all I already know your answer but I would love if you guys talked about it a little bit more since Bloomberg at least who I think they're getting it wrong thinks that that will push price down you know it do you think that it's gonna affect anything I mean I think you know if there is an effect it's an effect to the upside in the price of a Bitcoin because it shows you like mental capitulation from companies that thought they knew better it's no different than hash fund managers that know better and so if anything it's it's admission that they don't know what they're doing they got into something at the peak and they're getting out of something at the bottom right and if it's not the bottom it's close to the bottom so this should be the time when you are looking to create businesses and when you are looking to generate revenue off of Bitcoin coming up with creative ways to launch something now in depths of the bear market with potentially six more months of the bear market to go maybe longer and having that be successful so that when the bull comes you are right there capitalizing on it where amp the kinks have already been worked out so if I read anything into the CBOE closure is that we're closer to a Bitcoin bull market than we were prior to them closing I have a bit of a different question for you on that and Socrates check your chat which is that you know the Wall Street Journal is reading says again that this is the latest sign that mainstream financial firms are losing their enthusiasm for Kryptos although right to be fair CME Group still lists Bitcoin futures and has more volume than CBOE do you think that one do you think that that's true to actually what does CBO he said is it is reviewing its approach to cryptocurrency derivatives and again doesn't currently plan to list more contracts do you think that maybe there could be another structure even in the future that would work better and launch somewhere else and – do you think that's true that you know which we do but that you know mainstream financial firms are just not getting as interested even though we're on the back of the news with JP Morgan Chase and other big banks saying that they're more interested by with their own coins etc nuanced question yeah yeah to me it's very very simple none of the big financial companies need Bitcoin and none of the big financial companies need a black eye from the crypto space so they tiptoe into it and they talk about doing different things and they try launching different things but until there is overwhelming evidence that this space is here to stay and we are far far from it because of all the craap that's going on with these all these other programs and these poor suckers in the big institutions never were able to differentiate between Bitcoin and all the other things so they hired a bunch of people that talk to them about crypto and blog chains and new projects and stuff and seemed exciting and so on the way up from zero to twenty thousand dollars and almost a trillion in assets after ten years in the the total market cap that's a pretty intriguing if you're in a big financial institution but remember what all these people are doing they're doing the same thing they did yesterday and last week and last month in the year before and ten years before they're making lots and lots of money with lots and lots of asset classes that they know huge amounts about and have hundreds and hundreds of people studying every day so they get this little group together and they make some recommendations they try it they put a little money in it then it all you know then they read the headlines about what's really going on in the crypto space they hear what the SEC is saying they see all the hacks they see everybody losing money on these exchanges exchanges shutting down left and right changing the rules in the middle of everything put yourself in their position and now a hedge fund is different a hedge fund takes risks and there will study things and they will put money into things and sometimes they'll get caught like Arak and Novogratz because they didn't completely understand this new asset class in my humble opinion so anyway that's a long way of saying don't hold your breath about big institutions doing anything to change anything about the ecosystem or the price until we clean out all of the garbage and then that's the time for them to take it seriously so Socrates message that he needs ten minutes so if you don't mind I'm gonna ask you guys one more question to just buy the time really quickly and that was so I've stopped sleeping which is why well actually I'd say that's why I'm wearing t-shirts but I always have and tone did a vlog two days ago when you were still in Zurich at 3 a.m. my time 2 a.m. and it was about gbtc well you included gbtc we have not talked about gbtc in a bit ty and everybody always asks us about gbtc so tone you don't have to great you pulled up the chart ty if we could talk about gbtc really quickly it is you know always confusing a bit crazy and tone yes I we will take credit for converting you on gbtc I like would I would like to I would like to do that if anyone wants to go back tone hated it now I loved it you uh you have your chart up by the way yeah yeah yeah I like gbtc number one because I can put in a retirement account and I deal with a lot of people with retirement accounts and I cannot do that without jumping through a lot of Hoops in non retirement accounts with Bitcoin there are people that can do it but it is very complicated and if you don't have very good tax advice and legal advice I would not have any crypto or Bitcoin in a retirement account but there is no problem whatsoever with doing it with gbtc so that's what attracted me to it number two after studying the premium discount relationship I loved it I loved the idea that the 2% cost of this particular security which is high but not all that high for many meet some of the best mutual funds and ETFs but mainly some of the best mutual funds have greater than a 2% management fee but consistently outperform the indexes net net net those fees when I look at the gbtc the 2% cost of running that particular fund easily pays for itself relative to how easy it makes it to buy Bitcoin now you must have trust that what they're telling you and what they're telling their auditors and what they're telling the SEC is all correct about for every Bitcoin that you think you're buying by buying gbtc there's actually a real Bitcoin being held in cold storage behind it not necessarily at the exact same time of the day that you make your purchase but within a reasonable enough period of time that a hundred percent is actually there and they aren't using any kind of fractional shares to differentiate it the other number three is that this is regulated and you've heard me discuss regulation versus decentralization and centralization and I think that this ecosystem needs a certain amount of regulation until we can we clear out most of the other projects which do not respond well to regulation and that's what will force them out this one is regulated and there are people looking and asking questions and looking for reports to be fulfilled and does that mean that nothing can go wrong absolutely not but I just feel a lot more confident about it and number four is I love things that trade at premiums and discounts as long as you understand what that means and how to play it tone is doing a great job of playing the premium the premium side of this to be able to protect himself and make decisions even though he finds himself on the wrong side of a trade for a period of time because he's so busy running around there are ways using that premium regard of what Bitcoin does to be able to take advantage of it and you can take huge advantage of it at the right time in the right way I'm just hoping it's still around and there aren't other ETFs that take its place before the next big bull market because I would love to get a 300% kind of return on Bitcoin and a four hundred and some percent return on gbtc which is what is possible because of the way the premium acts thanks time turn love the chart what do you see I I mean I have nothing more to add I mean Tyler explained it absolutely beautifully and this chart shows you just got it shows you the bitstamp price of Bitcoin and blew the gbtc price in red and the gray is the premium and you know with your cursor being to the right of both lines you can see that the current premium is at 22 percent right now GBC is trading as we speak so you watching these percentages slightly wiggle around just a bit and yeah the percentage has been fairly steady in the low 20s dropping down to the mid-teens every now and then so even in the current environment I mean you're it's still tradable you get a range on the percentage so no it's it's pretty neat and I mean it's grossly inefficient but that allows professional traders like Tyler and myself to profit more from the inefficiency in the market now as a you know as a responsible you know youtuber teaching people about trading and markets I want maximum efficiency as a trader looking to get rich I want inefficiency however the inefficiency in the crypto space is I wouldn't even call it an efficiency I'd call it you know unregulated space and the inefficiency in the crypto space is not worth the risk of being hacked and having your money stolen so there is a difference between inefficiency and incompetence along with just the fact that there is regulatory risk and all this other stuff so gbtc I I it's good that we have it and it's it'll create some very interesting discussions going forward all right well thanks stone I think we may have to end what Socrates iMessage knew we're doing another vlog at 4:00 yeah maybe you can join us at 4:00 let's let's do that that'll be traditional markets turn on thank you so much for jumping on you have a beautiful apartment in the background by the way all right did you tell everybody where you are or is that a mystery I am in my York uh Spain you've been here before right I have not just Ibiza hmm did you pearl died yet god I've I'm scared to go outside I think it's gonna snow like it's unreasonably cold wow that's amazing oh no all right well tone again thank you so much for jumping yeah thanks a lot tone all right thanks guys hi everybody

22 thoughts on “Hyperwave – Zones And Fields In Bitcoin Analysis (With Tone Vays)”

  1. So does Tyler still think bitcoin will go to $1000- $1500? Is he changing his prediction since it seems to be more bullish now?

  2. …….the cat's out of the bag!!….so those who held their bag too tight shall find the cat gone!!….(BTC)

  3. remind us again why would average normal people buy btc!? most of us hold what, something around 5,10,20, maybe 50 btc (not me, less then 1 unfortunately), but the point is, a whale that has thousands or tens of thousands, wtf would they keep accumulating for!? So we the average joe keep on buying at current price more or less, while the average whale keeps on selling, maybe triggering lower prices and rebuying cheaper, while we either hodl for a price that might never spike (since 2017 was mainly wash trading) or sell in resentment. Not so sure about that bull run afterall…

  4. Awesome video! I love this kind of TA, very intuitive and easy to understand. I would ask Tone if he really thinks this could be possible end to BTC bear market while altcoins are still riding on its coat tails?

  5. Hello Leah,
    Considering your experience working with the biggest Wall St hedge funds can you provide some of your own analysis and thoughts on hyperwave theory.
    Thanx

  6. I think Tyler is most likely right, because we are in a bear market and i would not bet on the second big formation in a bear market to break to the upside.

  7. Given that BTC is a faster market than traditional stocks, i.e. "a year in crypto is like 10 years in the stock market". My question is: Would it be better to use the daily chart to define a Hyperwave rather than the weekly?

  8. Read books, that lull me into makng dumb loosing bets like the one you both took with a genius like Filbfib……….. Lol

  9. Suddenly it's a weird Hyperwave. Next it will be a "really funky" Hyperwave. Then, with just a 0.1% probability, it will not dip down to $1K.

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