Hot and Fresh Charts 6-14-2019

Hot and Fresh Charts 6-14-2019 — with David Moadel I just wanna have a
just needs to go hey everybody welcome to looking at the
markets with David Modell it’s Friday night
I should probably be outside socializing with people now forget that I’m going to
show you some charts instead here we go first chart I want to show you is about
silver and silver mining this is from SRS Rocko report showing the top eight
primary silver miners average yield you can see the damn multi-year downtrend
okay in terms of silver production lower supply there is a supply crunch in
silver going on right now could that lead to higher silver prices well I’ll
let you judge but lower demand you know the effect that tends to have eventually
on the price of a particular commodity hmm something to think about
and speaking of precious metals gold finding a bid amid dollar weakness and
trade tensions according to US global investors if you need convincing that
the US dollar and gold have a tendency to move opposite of each other
I think this chart should convince you if it hasn’t if you haven’t been
convinced already of that and that gold is a pretty good hedge against dollar
weakness in my estimation and yes the US dollar had a strong year last year and
the first half of this year as well but now it is weakening and not
coincidentally in my opinion gold is strengthening well after all we do tend
to measure Gold’s value in terms of US dollars so this kind of makes sense
doesn’t it if the dollar continues to weaken that could be even more of a
headwind for gold which is testing that 1350 level so if you’re heavily invested
in an index fund such as the S&P 500 the Dow the Nasdaq that type of thing you
might want to pay good attention here close attention this is according to the
government’s own probability model here the New York Fed recession probability
model claims that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 27%
personally I think it’s higher than that I think it’s well it’s the government so
I have a tendency to think they’re under estimating the probability of a
recession just my opinion but even by their own standards it’s more than one
in four probability of a recession here in the
next year same probability as it was in early 2007 and the Great Recession
started less than a year later hmm things to make you go home what else
well we’ve got the I’ve been pounding the table about this yes it’s the yield
curve inversion between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the three-month
Treasury yield they are inverted we’re in bizarro land as I’ve said
before the three-month bond yield should not pay more than the 10-year bond yield
it just does not make sense so it’s inverted and it has not been
inverted for very long but the countdown has started the clock is ticking and if
it stays inverted for a long time for a while that could be a possible recession
indicator and as we can see the past these are the gray bars represent
recessions and the past three times there was a yield curve inversion a
recession soon followed hmm something to think about
once again and another measure that could be a possible recession indicator
I don’t like to make exact predictions on the time frame but this is a measure
of the health of the US economy it’s called the PMI the US manufacturing
Purchasing Managers Index that is at the lowest level since September 2009 and we
all know what the economy was like back in September of 2009 I want to take a
look at the US unemployment rate sure we can celebrate that the government is
claiming that the US unemployment rate is three point six percent you could
celebrate it if you want to or you can look at this chart notice that when the
unemployment rate falls under 4% recessions are not far away at least
historically speaking I know that history doesn’t repeat itself
necessarily but it does rhyme so yes after it went down below 4% there was a
gray bar recession one two three four last times
happened hmm could this be number five I guess we’ll find out soon enough
might be time to get risk off with your investment something to think about
possibly according to Goldman Sachs and their bear market risk indicator it’s at
the highest point it’s been since right before the bear market of the 1970s now
I’m not going to make my decision just based on what Goldman Sachs says but
they do use data and information and this is something to think about
meanwhile our government the US government continues to spend money like
there’s no tomorrow we’ve got the US federal budget deficit 12-month total in
terms of billions of dollars almost reaching a trillion dollars and for the
past twelve months and it’s the highest level since it actually was over a
trillion dollars back in early 2013 hmm not good in my opinion now this is not a
chart but something interesting to look at especially if you’re into
cryptocurrency Bitcoin that kind of thing
uber PayPal and Visa are financially backing Facebook’s global coin
cryptocurrency so you’ve already got JPMorgan getting on the blockchain
you’ve got Starbucks you got Microsoft you got all these companies Facebook and
now uber PayPal and Visa indirectly getting into cryptocurrency because
they’re putting their money where their mouth is they’re financially investing
into facebook’s global coin cryptocurrency that doesn’t
mean you have to be bullish on Facebook’s global coin in particular but
this is what adoption looks like remember how the internet was back in
1995 and then more and more companies and people adopted it and then it became
just a normal part of life I’m starting to see that in cryptocurrency and the
blockchain and if you think I’m bullish on it you should check out Tom Lee who
yes he’s been and this is the fun strat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee he’s
been a bull for a while now bullish on Bitcoin
he’s saying that’s going to make a run for 40k 40,000 and he means sooner
rather than later he’s saying that if Bitcoin hits 10,000 then within five
months it will hit 20,000 it’ll double within five minutes if it hits 10,000
and that is in his opinion due to FOMO fear of missing out people will see it
hit 10,000 they’ll be afraid of missing out on bigger gains and then they’ll run
it up to 220 thousand fast and furious I’m sorry let me make sure I got this
right he’s saying it’ll be fast and furious
220 thousand and then very likely to make a run to forty thousand within five
months forty thousand quadrupling within five months according to Tom Lee okay
and again I’m not going to make an investment or a trade based on what Tom
Lee says or what anyone per Goldman Sachs or any one person or you know
adviser says I’m gonna make my own decisions but these are all things to
think about and that’s why I bring you these charts these articles this data
this information you do what you will with it make your own decisions if you
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you so much enjoy your Friday night go out and see some people don’t just be
like me and look at charts all right let’s socialize let’s have some fun I’ll
talk to you soon I just wanna have

5 thoughts on “Hot and Fresh Charts 6-14-2019”

  1. EXCELLENT Info….Scary and sobering but excellent. USDCHF is strengthening against the diagonal resistance from the April decline. I'm not buying the "Gold is safe" meme. Gold may or should fall like oil as the US dollar attacks its' 2016 high. The unsolved mystery is will gold reach its' 50% Fibonacci retrace region measured from the 2016 (fake?) bottom. We'll see. Global fear driven demand for US dollars could send interest rates higher. Who's talking about that though?

  2. I agree we are headed to a recession…..wondering how the market is going to fall, when it does, and if it will recover quickly or not. Got stuck in 1988 or so….and thereafter. I am in & out of stocks, sold a lot of main holdings out of necessity to fix up a house I need to sell….hoping that all gets squared away quickly. Thanks for the info. I am afraid of bitcoin….don't know why. Guess I just don't get it.

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