HERE'S WHY THIS BITCOIN SELLOFF MAY NOT BE SO BAD – BTC/CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING ANALYSIS



yo what's up guys how is everybody doing all having a fantastic day I am riled up with this market today I have made some incredibly poor decisions with with things outside of trading so obviously that's getting me a little bit amped up today let's talk about Bitcoin it's had a little bit of a dip today I don't know why I made that it's such a stupid way to start a video oh we've had this Head and Shoulders pattern we're talking about it for a little bit you need to quickly update you on how it looked it looked something a little bit like this I've been talking about this since our right when this right shoulder was forming I think you know I hope you people talking to me about this usually I like to ignore these things but this one really did catch my attention as you can see we have started to drop down from this Head & Shoulders pattern now we broke and below the neckline now typically what you want to see in a formation like this is a retest of the neckline so this would mean if we were to zoom into something like the 15-minute chart and I know I never do this but but you know this is to kind of make a point you know what you want to see is that we end up retesting this green line this horizontal it should be horizontal I didn't draw it properly but this horizontal green you want to see it retested and rejecting the price as you guys know in my previous video what I mentioned is that this downtrend has been characterized by retesting old support areas as resistance and then getting rejected and carrying on lower so this would actually be the best case scenario if somehow we can get like a V shape correction upwards retest the neckline as support turning into resistance and then continue to fall back down this would be the best case scenario for the handed shoulders pattern but there is another side to this and there is a bullish side to it and it is that head and shoulders patterns can actually manifest into fulcrum bottoms you guys heard me cover this in a video way back so you can go and check that one out as well and and into where you know with a Falcon bottom it uses the head and shoulders pattern but it evolved Xin to into being a reversal pattern right now a market reversal pattern and you know I want to really and the the way I want to make this point is if we caused some lights back to before this head and shoulders started right well before the head was formed we had a pattern like this and if you guys remember what I mentioned I was updating you guys live in the for flies gold channel and of course VIP has got all of those updates as well plus more what I was mentioning what I thought this was at the time obviously because the sell-off was so vicious and we just broke out of a bear flag I thought that this could have been a another smaller bear flag and and you know I was talking about how if we end up bouncing from this level we're probably in a bit of a sideways range a bit of a rising wedge and then obviously we now know with hindsight that what you know what may have been a bear flag what was a rising wedge has I had actually manifested into a new type of pattern right because the rising wedge if I pause right now the rising wedge isn't valid beyond when it breaks below this level right and then you know as you can see right now it's become a Head and Shoulders pattern this is is a typical example of how these situations will evolve it and how it could evolve into becoming a fulcrum bottom of a long past minute as well so that's something I wanted to touch on as being quite significant definitely something to keep an eye on now another you know this is a bad time to be recording a video but I wanted to get a daily market update out today because obviously we've had some cool things going on in the market today and we've dropped down to this blue support boxing you know I didn't draw this box before but it's important now I've drawn this from where wicks have closed or other wicks I've entered into this box candle bodies have also almost been in this box so this has a bit of a support arrange and and you know what we've seen on things like crypto Twitter today is that we may be in some sort of a sideways range now between this kind of range right so this would mean we just end up trading sideways in this range this is probably the best case scenario for the Bulls really there is no convincing argument for the Bulls though because you know the facts are that we have you know the no support level has helped us we are in the grand scheme of things you can lie to yourself as much as you like but in a big picture of things we are setting lower highs and we're setting lower lows and the big picture of things right especially if you go on things like the 12-hour one-day chart it's a very very bearish chart but if we're talking about sort of temporary relief temporary opiates you know one of them is that we could be in a better way sideways range it's you know like I said it doesn't really mean much but to see that we haven't you know immediately broken down this level is it's potentially a good sign for the Bulls it's a sign that with this level may hold us because we do have news of things like the larger Bitcoin wallets growing in size right now and so what this means is that well what it kind of implies is that there could be people accumulating you know one of the big things I want to hit home in this video today is that you know when we have things like accumulation ranges it's not gonna happen when there's a positive like vibe in the market right you know the bigger players who know what's up the people who are actually gonna make the big money are gonna be buying when normal people are really frustrated and upset and depressed with the market and so you know this kind of ties back to what I was talking about months back with the accumulation distribution range right so what I mentioned is that when you got a sideways range like this it is either gonna be accumulation or distribution it's either gonna be very smart people who are buying up at this level very slowly so that they don't affect prices because they think that it's going to rock it on upwards or that just that it's going to rise on upwards the only way you would know if it is accumulation like that or if its distribution is by seeing what happens afterwards so if it was distribution this would mean that prices were kept suppressed because these very small sellers in this case wanted to average out a good exit price of roughly sort of six and a half thousand dollars perhaps to sell off their Bitcoin from this 20k top because they expect it to go significantly lower and like I said the only way you're gonna know which one that is is if you see which way it breaks whether it breaks to the downside or to the upside as we know it's broken to the downside this was conclusively a distribution for your face and it makes perfect sense in hindsight you know what I always mentioned is that you know in terms of Max Payne it doesn't really make sense that this was Max Payne I always had this hunch and it was a little bit hard for me to to accept because obviously I don't want to see Bitcoin going lower but you know we could be in the flip side of that right now I covered why saying stuff like this is actually bearish in the last video it's a bit of a paradox kind of thing you just chase it you like it like a dog chasing its tail in circles yeah you're not going to get anywhere but seeing that we are seeing you know some wallet sizes go up we are seeing that you know overall sentiment is either you're getting pretty bearish right now I mean there was a distinct difference if you go back to my videos from back in like July or just certainly June July when we started that 6k range and then you know even August creeping into September what you're gonna notice is that a lot of people are still very bullish but if you look at the video sorry if you look at the comment sections now people are very bearish and and you know that the deal with this is they sound confident this is the big big problem you know that if you look at the successful traders they are not gonna sound so sure of things like you will find in the comments sections of YouTube videos of alessio visits videos of Kirby's videos of the Moon you know SunnyD create or all of these kinds of people when people sound very sure of their theories they're probably wrong because there is a there's a bit of a it's not a bell curve effect it's like let me draw this out for you this is really completely off-topic there is a a chart right and it's by a very I think it's like Daniel Kruger or something and it shows you how you gain experience and knowledge right so this is time and this is knowledge you have or something confidence rather and so you know at the beginning when you're new to the space you're gonna get confident very very quickly right you might read like two pages of a TA book and then be like yeah I got this figured out your confidence goes sky-high and you know this for every you know if whether you're in like the art industry or or banking or Academy whatever you've experienced this as well because most of you are probably adults where you have sky-high confidence at the beginning but as you learn more as time progresses your confidence goes down because you realize I actually don't know much and then gradually it will peak up again as you as time goes on and as you build experience and so it's it's very important if you do pay attention to things like comment sections and YouTube videos if you do pay attention to things like crypto Twitter people talking about their TA or you know you're gonna hear most most commonly you're gonna hear from people who don't know what they're saying because they're talking I've just kind of shot myself in the foot but these YouTube videos here but as you know I'm much more happier to just to say the truth you know even even if that would discredit myself for the greater good right and so uh this is yeah this is the herd I know how it looks to the support box but the deal with this support box is yeah if it doesn't hold we are looking at significantly lower levels let me take this drawing tool off we are looking at significantly lower levels we're looking at things like the very low $3,000 range 2800 to 3100 as you know is my prediction for the next temporary bottom will be I don't think the market is gonna bottom out at this level um you know I don't think that's gonna be the like I mentioned I think our bottom could be much much lower but this does definitely line up nicely and yeah it all does depends on if this box will hold now one of the very key things I want to mention is that I and I mentioned this in go and yeah in gold we're VIP is actually have on trade to short a theorem and it's sort of directly if Bitcoin want to go this low the etherium truck could be triggered and the etherion trade is much safer than playing Bitcoin right now I've mentioned why that is because this range is not a very big range right so this support area goes from 2800 to 3100 and so if we draw this from 3100 up to where you might want to show this just below the previous low lick that's about you know a three percent range if you're being generous whereas the etherium range is significantly larger so again if you want access to those trades go ahead and head off that first link in the description down below and then click on my name at the bottom of any for flies gold post and send me a message we'll get you in VIP that way you get access to all of my trades and things like that but the very key thing with this is and like I said with gold I also do share trades occasionally so what I mentioned is one possible trade to make is shorting this $3,200 range especially you know if we do drop below this week but this will change if we find support in this blue box and why is that very good question it is to do with momentum my friends and it is because this entire sell-off has been incredibly vicious but momentum is deep kind of decreasing on the larger timeframes Alessio has shown on the weekly the pulse indicator is got is actually firing up again and so a momentum in the long-term trend is is actually is actually ramping up right now it's a very concerning thing if you're a bull right now it does definitely line up with the Bears on and and so when you've got strong momentum and you have sideways ranges like if your sideways range doesn't please pay attention to this but if your sideways range doesn't last for too long then you can expect these levels to you can expect support levels like this to break quickly and result in more cascading waterfalls all right that's what you can expect if these consolidation ranges don't last long if we do find support here though and this consolidation range goes on for another couple of days right maybe even into the weeks if it does end up being a longer consolidation rate well that is going to mean is that the overall momentum from the Bears is going to weaken all right this is incredibly I mean people don't talk about it know why the momentum is going to weaken and so if you have a trade like what I mentioned in VIP and what I mentioned in gold kind of shorting below this overall market support level this would take us below 100 billion dollars guys I mean it's a market cap that is a pretty significant deal if we were to go sideways for a little bit that would almost start to invalidate those trades because what we're trying to do our momentum trade we're trying to play in with the momentum from the Bears to profit from the prices dropping even lower but if that momentum dissipates because we start going sideways for a little bit more that is definitely going to mean that you know going shortly become riskier that is something I really wanted to kind of mention and then and then you know the second thing I wanted to mention ties in with what I said earlier in this video where you know a lot of people are kind of going from bullish to bearish at the moment but that does not mean that prices have to stop falling you know the contrarian in a lot of you which I guess is kind of all of you by this point because you can't have survived in this game without at least wanting to be a contrarian at some point near this long you know it would make you want to say that okay well people are turning from bullish to bearish maybe it's time to start going long maybe it's time to expect the infamous short squeeze that a lot of people are talking about still you know shorts being very high I mean close to all-time highs only within something like what's six thousand orders definitely you know like I said a lot of people talking about short squeezes at the moment you know this could make you want to flip your perspective and start to become a little bit bullish especially in the temporary market what I have been saying for the past couple videos is that we're due for a reversal but and the very key thing I should pulled up the sentiment chart on sentiment trader calm but you know sentiment can stay poor and prices can continue to decline right that's actually very common especially in a bear market like this guys that you know how do you define death depression right and in a markets like like this how do you define depression it's gonna be where that gets worse and worse gets even more worse right that's just how it is bad will get worse and and you know if this is bad we can expect it to get worse while people are already hurting what people are already upset and the only reason that what I'm saying might be wrong is because late Bears often get right that's actually exactly what Richard Hart said as you guys know a couple of videos ago I mentioned he's a very good analyst you guys should all check him out Richard Hart Hart spell doesn't like the hot organ we all have you know what he mentioned is that late Bears often get rekt and this is absolutely the case so if we've got a retail trying to short right now yeah you know and like I said it doesn't mean that we're not gonna continue on down it very well could be the case that we end up going one level lower 2800 to 3100 with you know retail potentially even being on their side on you know on the shorting side but then it does not mean that the next time you know we would still have this bearish bias you know it could be that from 28 to 30 100 we end up going as high as maybe 4,000 4,500 you know what I mentioned in the last video is that I feel like we're in something larger than what we think right now because we expect a lot of volatility we expect prices to very quickly go up or down because that's just what we've become accustomed to this is a far more accelerated turn of market movement than we have had throughout much of early mid 2018 it is far more accelerated you just I mean look I didn't you know I don't need to show you more than this it is a massive drop all right nearly 50 percent drop in prices or actually about 50 percent within the period of you know like a month it's it's hardly anything and then you compare it to other price action I mean it's it's especially because we've gone downward it is incredibly severe and that is why I think we could be the starting of something that's a little bit bigger than what we expect the starting of a range and so let me depict to you how that look I think this is incredibly important you know it's it's kind of this deal of expecting the unexpected and really the idea is we could end up floating sideways in a range you know potentially as big as this you know and this is if we compare it to the previous bear market this is exactly how it played out this is exactly how it played out so let's go back to the bitstamp chart and take a look at that onto the daily and the logarithmic scale and so once this is the 2013 bubble pop it hit a high of like 1100 back in December or something it hit a low in early 2015 all right so it was about a year off to the previous bubble like actually started to pop this is lining up amazingly with 2018 you know to say that we could end up hitting a bottom of 2800 to 31 like I said I don't think that's gonna be the bottom but it lines up really well you can't deny that and you know if we end up hitting a bottom like this we could end up trading in a massive range I mean I know this doesn't look very big because we have the the beauty of hindsight on our side but this is a massive range I mean let me get my ruler this is oh wow this is how you yeah it's a 2x range right it's a to x rates from 2800 to 4500 that is also nearly a 2 times range because 2,800 times 2 would only take us up to 5600 it is very plausible that we could be at the beginning of a much larger trend and we're just too blind to see it I really do think this is the case guys I really do think this is the case you know as much as I as I have said I think we're gonna go significantly lower you know even despite what I do I still think we're gonna bottom out of something like $700 um like I said I need to make another video on that I just don't have all my facts straight yet and that video is gonna be open to so much scrutiny that I need to get it right but obviously you know putting that aside I'm open to other ideas and one of my other big ideas is that we're in the middle of something much bigger than what we expect and so that's my take on things really for this market I want to quickly touch on a theorem as well it had a beautiful beautiful formation over the past 24 48 72 hours I mean two rejections off this old support level becoming resist two rejections is amazing this is the best case scenario we did have short signals on air from the trade trend reversal detector so as you can see this is another indicator that's actually going live in February February 2019 made from the same guy who made the full-size indicator it will be on sale there and as you can see I mean a lot of bearish signals given off the heightened divergence the I believe these are also hiding divergences you know right at the top we've had a lot of bearish signals on the 4-hour chart here lining up incredibly well right we're not getting them on Bitcoin but etherium strange is obviously a little bit more vicious in both direction whether it's up or down and so we did get them in this case and you know just right off this rejection of support as well looking really good guys I'm really excited for this full of this etherium VIP trade to trigger I think it's gonna be absolutely great I mean it's our our biggest trade would have been the the short from 57:40 that that was our previous like big VIP short I spoke about a big short in videos back in like July or something that's what I was talking about the VIP one but this one actually looks bigger just because there's I mean you look at this range it's amazing look at these green lines that's all that like this is an MT range it looks amazing so I'm very excited for this to trigger and of course you know why don't you close these positions but I do start taking profit you know when I start setting my stop losses I do notify VIPs with exactly what I'm doing in real time so they don't miss out on anything and then of course it's not just me you know there is a team behind it we've got analysis going on we've got all the trades going on all of that does get shared in there access to the VIP library really everything you would want for Christmas so yeah if you are interested in that of course there will be details on how to join in the description it's gonna be with the first thing in the description down below and right around there you'll find details now to join VIP with that I really hope you have enjoyed this video it has been an absolute pleasure one last note before I do and the volume has been a little bit sideways today it did end up dipping as low as ten point five billion we're now making a bit of a recovery because of this blood what I mentioned yesterday is that the weak volume from 14 down to 11 billion on the green day was a bad sign and to see that volume dipped even further today but only recovered with red price action again reaffirms that we are bearish volume is as you know one of my favorite indicators if we go back to Bitcoin real quick you know this volume did uptick only today and it up ticked with red volume you know the last time it was also red volume you know the only meaningful this green spike wasn't as high the only meaningful spike we had last time was this weird like manipulation candle as you guys know and so really this volume just it's the best confirmation we've got it looks fairly likely that we're gonna drop lower and if we do well looking at 2800 to 3100 it's been a pleasure and yeah with that I'm out peace

23 thoughts on “HERE'S WHY THIS BITCOIN SELLOFF MAY NOT BE SO BAD – BTC/CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING ANALYSIS”

  1. Just think about all the variables that effect price globally instead of focusing on a nation's economy. It boggles the mind. Is there a software that actually monitors all variables and provides short-term models to make better decisions with? Just wondering.

  2. Brilliant video bro. I have to agree on the contrarian psychology view you mention. When public Joe e.g. YouTube commenters are all asking how to short Bitcoin, or laughing at Bitcoin and kicking it while it is down, then we are very close to a short term move to the upside. My TA is showing a very imminent and MASSIVE short term move up with Wave 4, to as high as 6K, then a dump down in Wave 5 to capitulation. Late shorts get Rekt. I like that lol

  3. Doc from readysetcrypto says the something … gigantic swings till hammer candel and i add black swan to pluto when central power has accumulated enought.

  4. good video! but we WILL NOT get to $700 sorry. historically each crash has taken BTC down to the 86% Fib retracement levels (see 2015 bottom from last AB leg up from 2013…hit exactly on the 86% twice @ $160).

    if this holds true, we should see MASSIVE VOLUME SPIKES around $2800 which is where the all time 86% fibonacci retracement sits………we're EXTREMELY close to bottom!

  5. Bitcoin going under $900 soon don’t be stupid people save your cash move some money around and get ready cause we’re going down.

  6. Great video, reassuring to hear you echo some of my thoughts. Glad I held on to my from short yesterday! I was close to closing it. My sentiment is… Lower but as there are so many bears around now im going to be very cautious shorting.

  7. no do stop ..the education it the part and the real part of it all ..we look at chart then we look and see if we are in the right space .if not it 10000000% more thinking then one person .smart person knows other peoples opinions for food for thought .keep up the great work and you are a king for living with being wrong .and I like people like that it is real .and real is 100% never be wrong thanks for the video today great job .
    Ps. I was sad I did not see you for a few days ..move video more education .thanks

  8. Great video as always. I think you’re spot on about the range coming up. Watch out for 19th December around 3k for CBOE futures expiring. All the new bears could get caught.

  9. 500 could be a good level for the cypto made by noname people. The next challenge of the century will be to hack the chain.

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