Breaking Bitcoin – Holiday Red Candle Giveaway – Live Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis



and I love how everybody is doing today I hope you're doing well today is Saturday December the 15th we made it to the weekend guys I hope you're doing fantastic it's a little slow volume weekend as we always expect over the weekends nothing really exciting to talk about until it's probably tomorrow around 6:00 p.m. probably when the daily candle closes tomorrow the weekly candle closes as well and the Asian markets wake up and they're like oh let's let's trade this thing let's do something so let's see get a quick recap we've joined today by Alex one of the analyst for crack and cryptocurrency so it's nice not to be doing this alone by myself it's been a it's been a while since alex has been on the show he's had some some computer issues but now we're back in the saddle and doing this live so let me make sure you're unmuted Alex and how are you doing this morning I'm doing really well thanks it's a lovely day here in Los Angeles California and despite all the technical issues and otherwise that I've had recently I'd say things are pretty good otherwise good man well I'll tell you what it is frigid and cold here in the Midwest looking outside looking at my window I'm just glad to be indoors where it's nice and warm so let me pull up the chat and say hi guys sorry we're starting late let's see here Jurgen Ernst good morning to you Scott good afternoon I should actually say Scottie Ogden what's going on welcome to the stream Christian Martinez hello man Coen us allah and russell Dickie what's going on guys and what's up Seth all right so let's let's get into this I want to give us a quick update for the Kraken crypto currency trading group but guys so we did so I did actually update this let me refresh the page here because we did close out some xbt USD positions just repositioning just repositioning where I'm at actually for the for the long term so we were actually able to and it's been kind of a it's been kind of a heroic battle these last few weeks guys because these last few weeks we've been speculating XPT USD so just this morning when I woke up I kind of posted the update push it out to everybody so the final results are a total of about of about 40 six percent return on equity for the entire total trade our initial fills were at thirty five hundred thirty three hundred and thirty two hundred we took profits at thirty five fifty and thirty six twenty on the pump up trader should have been out of break-even at thirty five hundred on the way down we took another we took another position at thirty three a t-34 hundreds of profits at 34 40 so it was a scalp and then our last position excuse me our third trade was actually getting filled at thirty two hundred and thirty one sixty four giving us an average entry of about a little under thirty two hundred we took profits at 3280 on that particular trade and then this last trade we refilled at thirty two hundred and thirty one fifty currently in profit on that trade but we've set the stop loss at thirty one fifty and we're going to wait for the volume starting on Monday or Sunday evening is how we're gonna particularly play out the X BT UST trade so we've updated week two results week three currently week three currently off to a two if you start but it's alright we've got our open trades this isn't accounting for our other bit max position so our other bit max positions actually do have a some profit currently up about ten percent on week three actually with our open positions so thank you that it's it's important to remember that a lot of times you'll open a position and it's not uncommon to be underwater for a while when you're first in a position so it's it's really a good idea to get comfortable with that idea because if you start dumping positions the moment you're underwater then you'll never make a profit that's and that's why we hold out of these yeah absolutely right man Scotty continues to work super hard on the website let me update this I believe he did fix that yes he was working up so he has updated the top banner now so things still coming along quite well with the website guys go get a check out at Kraken cryptocurrency calm let us know what you think as always leave comments questions concerns opinions thoughts sarcastic remarks and death threats in the comment section down below or DM them to us on the discord we will be speaking to the Milwaukee chapter of the American Association of individual investors on January the 19th in Brookside Wisconsin we will be speaking for about an hour on blockchain technology and how to use mining as a passive income source especially now with the decline in the price of miners and how investors can get it in participating in cryptocurrency this is for somebody who's new to cryptocurrency and it's not particularly experienced so this is probably not going to be a presentation that's gonna be supremely interesting to active traders but if you just want to refresh you just want to come out and hang out with us we'd be happy to see you guys there tickets are still on sale for that all right let's go over to the chart real quick so nothing really honestly fantastic to talk about nothing exciting to talk about today looking at the daily chart on on Bitcoin we do see the potential here for a Saturday and a Sunday of potentially green we do have a spinning a very weak spinning top doji on the daily chart excuse me for the daily candle right here on bitstamp we've got about three hours until the daily candle close and we do actually have just a little bit more volume peeking in over the last couple hours which we typically do right before the close of the daily candle so this doesn't this doesn't look like the bearish pressure to the downside is extremely powerful however it is the weekend so we're not we never expect to see large dramatic moves in in price over the weekend because it's only reads all traders it's not professional traders it's nobody with a lot of capital moving the markets now something that people have been pointing out yes this is a falling wedge pattern I'm not overly excited or impressed about it until I actually see the following wedge pattern play out and break to the upside and again the reason that I don't trade chart patterns is because I've seen them so so a falling wedge is a bullish pattern in a bearish trend so I kind of discount that just just off just off the fact that it's anti trend however you will notice that if this falling wedge does actualize and break to the upside the use of a chart pattern in my eyes is not as important as as horizontal support and resistance and you can just clearly see where is the resistance that we need to get over you have this previous distribution order block centered around 3600 if we are able to close another daily candle about 30 above 3600 then our next area excuse me above 3,400 right here then our next area to take out that we have not been able to overcome as 3600 and a strong close above that would be depending on where we go up to that bread close above 3,400 on the daily basis would actually be a break to the upside of that and we could potentially be looking at the measured move of that falling wedge that is a $1,000 moves so this is saying that if we do break to the upside on here we could potentially go back to 4400 which is actually our 7 8 6 Fibonacci retracement now I'll tell you why I'm not overly excited about that the reason why is because we already came down found a bottom right here we came up and already got rejected from our 7 8 6 Fibonacci retracement we fell back down created a new point of control and we rejected from that as well so more than likely if we do actually get up here to our 3400 level period it is more likely at this point in time that we do reject from that we'll have to wait until the volume comes in on Sunday evening Monday morning to really know more about that but just as we normally see throughout the weekend retail tends to be more permeable so I am expecting actually to see a little bit of green over the weekend as I said you had the this is already looking like a spinning spinning top doji so if there is a little bit more volume that comes into this we could see a little bit of potential gains keep your scalp short but at this point in time at this point in time I do have my stop-loss set on our positions at 3150 as we can see right here so I'm actually input I'm actually in profit on this trade only by about $10 with the leverage that I'm using not ten dollars not being the positioned what my average entry is now 3175 we see the price is 3185 $10 guys so I want to give a thanks by the way to all the premium subscribers that joined us in the trip in the cracking crypto currency trading group last night for the webinar on risk management it was it went really well it was fantastic I think risk management is a topic that so many people gloss over and and don't implement as an actual discipline part of their trading strategy and it's because of a risk management strategy that I am actually able to do this day after day and year after year fifth Ronan man good morning to you man hey Seth Thank You Man I highly appreciate that fifth Ronan says inverted cup and handle on the thirty minute hike annachi BTC yes that's a lot man all right let's take a look at it bro okay so I definitely do see what you're saying so looking at the 30 minute charge for hiking ah she would I call this an inverted cup and handle no the reason why is because you've already retraced all the way back up to what would be the bottom of your cup at this point this is actually looking like a double cup where you have an inverted cup and then potentially a new cup and handle pattern forming again I won't get overly excited about that looking at I can dodge you we do have our point of control now down at thirty-one 49 and we are about to break the 55 period exponential moving average on the 30-minute chart and if we actually just go back in time and look here on the hike annachi we haven't really been able to get over that fifty-five period moving average except for the pump back here when we did run up to 36 20 this is an averaged out chart so this this is giving us excuse me so there's the pump back up to 36 20 so actually historically speaking when we do close above the 55 period moving average that is a strong sign I don't see any indications that we are actually going to break above it at yet at this point in time again this is not considered valid until we actually close a candle above that we have to open ant we have to close and open a new 30 minute candle above that and then this is actually not a bad setup if you're looking to take a scalp long at this particular time because you're able to set a nice stop-loss you have here a nice high volume node and you're able to set a stop right around around 30 170 if your actual trade doesn't play out which gives you a pretty good risk management strategy on this alternatively a 30-minute Barre div here a continuation Barre div for the Bitcoin USD 30-minute and let's take a look at our oscillators see what we see here are you on Hika naxi um I do have another 30 minute I can oh she so 30 minutes I'm looking at coinbase right now but it should be on any of them so I see yeah I see I see bullish continuation divergence on the Fischer not on the stochastic or excuse me yes on the stochastic let's see here and not on the RSR yet on the RSI as well and not on the MACD histogram so that's three out of four yeah so that's a that's a continuation bearish divergence so it's it's just saying like you know it's kind of like the indicator resets upwards so that price can continue downwards in a technical sense well in a layman's explanation for a technical thing so the thing about that too is that I just want to point out that when you're talking about 30-minute divergence you're expecting you get a 30-minute reaction as well so potentially since it's all over a few hours if this was gonna play out liking it like a cup and handle pattern then you would be looking for the traditional way to play it is you'd be looking for a trace in between the two three six and the three a two so that would actually put you at about thirty one seventy-five is where you'd actually want to be placing your entry and the traditional way to do it is to set your stop loss right underneath the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement which is annoying because the six one eight is also your secondary entry point with your stop loss below your seven eight six so if you were wanting to potentially play this play this potential you know this this cup and handle pattern to the upside then you would be looking for an entry around thirty one thirty one seventy five with your stop loss at thirty one sixty and then again if that doesn't actualize you can wait and see what volume does potential re-entry at 31 52 with the stop loss 231 93 but I'm already in the long position that I've averaged in at about thirty one seventy five so at this point in time I won't be taking any new ones I do want to wait and see how the volume plays out so it's not not that I've capitulated or anything it's just but I've you know I've we took we took xB TUSD to the short side tremendously during this downturn and it was only it was only until a week ago that I started looking at potential long positions and they have played out quite well for us because we were able to catch thirty six twenty thirty five fifty we were able to catch 31 64 230 280 so mostly scalps but I'm just waiting to see what happens so far three thousand is still being defended but I'm going we're gonna know we're gonna know we are going to know next week how next week plays out looking at the weekly candle that's getting cluttered right now looking at the weekly candle on bitstamp actually we are looking like we are going to break down but we are looking like we might close the week below the 200 period simple moving average now we did actually wick down below the 200 period simple moving average on the weekly chart already and as we talked about yesterday we had been back testing or excuse me clips and actually admin back testing the 200 period moving average when we lost it on the daily that was really the decline at 6 K then we lost it on the 2 day the 3 day the for that at 5 day we just lost it on the 6th day and now we are potentially looking at losing it on the 7th day now I actually do think we close this weekly candle above the 200 period simple moving average actually because it's the weekend then we can tends to be like slow look sling volume but if we close if we open up if next week's candle goes down below the 200 period simple moving average then I start to I start to reevaluate the lower targets here as well so let's see here let's look at our data metrics and see if we see anything interesting I'm not expecting anything to really have changed this is interesting though if we look at the bid-ask some the bid-ask scum that the bid-ask sum continues to skyrocket so this is this is the last 30 days so this is accurate updated to today and we do actually see starting and I talked about this yesterday but starting on the 13th we see that the number of bids in the order books has absolutely skyrocketed so again one of the things that I've been talking about is the strong psychological support at 3k I think it would be physically difficult to break that level and that's why I am watching that's why I have taken myself off this to pretty much to the sidelines at this point I'm still have a small position open to the long side but I have a fairly tight stop set as I said I said it 150 I do want to point out that there would naturally be more bids because the same amount of money purchases more bitcoins now yeah but relatively if you just look at the massive increase actually just this skyrocketing up of the bids and actually the decline of the of the asks in conjunction now not dramatically not dramatically as well but but yeah this is um this is this is pretty interesting man to me to see the bid-ask some skyrocket down here toward the bottom as we get closer to that $3,000 psychological support that's on BitFenix so if we actually go over to bit max we don't see the same thing as well well maybe I misunderstand is that the total amount in USD or the total amount in Bitcoin the number of bids so the number of bitcoins is on the right and the number of the number of asks and USD is on the left so currently we have I'm asking like is it's a bid ask some so it's is it the amount of bids in USD like there's 50 billion dollars in bids or is it like there's you know 30 no there's 30,000 Bitcoin in bids because you know you can there can be like bitcoins worth 10 cents right now then you know you know 20 you know 20 million dollars and there 20 million Bitcoin bids is like you know it's like only two million dollars so I'm just asking like what's total in USD the number of bids 126 million dollars in bids okay as opposed to 70 7.3 million in asks right now okay oh so the number in USD has gone way up interesting now that Merton sense since the 30 cents actually starting on the looking at bit max since the 9th or the 8th the bids were at 64 point seven million dollars and now they're at 126 million and looking over on BitFenix as well let me find bit for next year sorry there we go bit Phenix and the number on BitFenix actually rose from 16 million to twenty seven point five million in that exact that that same span of time so almost the doubling of the bids on the order book whereas ask sep stayed relatively flat and in fact have declined over that same time period so it seems like supply is dwindling and demand is increases increasing looking at coinbase we see the same thing – so coinbase actually rose from seven point four four million in bids – now about seventeen point six million so that's that's more than a doubling of bids on coinbase whereas asks have just remained absolutely flat now here's the thing we would typically be a little wheat we are always cautious of this because of the propensity for the Bitcoin order books to get spoofed the reality of the situation is however they can't all be spoofing and as I said yesterday we're gonna see if some of these buy orders start getting chewed up and if we go look over at the chart we actually do see that they are starting to get chewed up now they are strategically placed anywhere from about 3,100 to 2900 looking at the looking at the large sum of bids on the books and you guys can go verify this for yourself just go over to coinbase go over to bit max go over to BitFenix and just go look at the order book just go look at it it's it's it's quite overwhelming actually we haven't seen the number we haven't seen a bid wall wall we haven't seen a position like this in a while but if you just go back and look at time this is the last 30 days so you can actually see that the bids once the decline really started happening so if we go back and let's go back and look at the chart here so when we broke 6 K was the week of the fifth excuse me the week of the 12th of November so if we go look at that bit ask some starting on yeah so here's the 14th of November here's the last 30 days we can actually see that yeah bids nack naturally like went all the way down and they didn't start picking up until the 29th of November so if we go back over here and look we can see the bids did start picking up here a little bit but now that we're at this lower price level coming close to that 200 simple simple period moving average yeah bids have just absolutely skyrocketed and again you guys can go verify this on the on the order book here's the combined order book and you can absolutely you can see look how thin the cell wall is and look how large the bid wall is and it really picks up around that 3,000 dollar level you can just see that slow increase you know up to about 3100 then you get a sharp tick up in the order book at about 30 81 it takes up significantly more at 30 50 and then at 30 at 3,000 it just just really jumps up man to about 40,000 bitcoins on the order books right now I the open interest reports this is going to be calculating this is going to be calculating the this is going to be calculating the co T report this is so this is last Tuesday so what I don't like about this is now we're looking at this almost a week behind but we do actually see that funds are still neutral they're actually still hedging their position let's see let's go take a look at let's go take a look at what we have here so we actually if we're looking at this chart here is the net of small traders right here and right here okay so come on then we have okay yep this is there okay so this is their net funds so they have actually they were buying Bitcoin they have reduced just a little bit now overall institutions are still buying a little bit more than they are selling what do we have here the Purple Line I prefer the indicator more on the charts but I have this pulled open right now oh yeah yep and that small net funds net others okay so actually we do see we do see now recently professional traders or those who are those who are classified as asset managers have actually started picking up their bids a little bit more now funds have started have started reducing their risk just a little bit and smalls are still still overwhelmingly buying so okay bitcoin open interest in Long's yeah so if we just look here we can see see Emmy and CBOE long funds I mean look at the look at the pickup in longs from from professional funds look at the Long's from retail traders have stayed mostly flat there feel a little bit of pressure and we have not seen a significant uptick in in the number of shorts in fact they're actually slightly on the decline while the Long's continue to rise at this $3,000 price level so maybe those are shorts that are still sitting open from way up and there's not many people opening new shorts yeah I mean this is just this is what you're gonna see with with professionals they're they're gonna hedge their risk so they're not going to just completely exit out of their short positions and just stack all into Long's that's not how professionals do things they're actually going to maintain long and short positions and they're mostly looking to hedge and just as time wears on if if it starts to favor their long positions that they currently now have open as hedging but what's interesting to me is to point this out is that they have started hedging more they have added more long positions to their open interest as well so they still they're there they're taking profits on their shorts and we actually do see this with with retail traders as well on the on the xbt contract on the perpetual swap shorts have been taking profits ever almost in fact almost every like uptick we see as mostly trader is mostly short positions looking to take profits so this this was a squeeze this was the bottom school Shorter's getting squeezed significantly and then retail piled in and was able to push it up to 36 20 as well which was also propelled by individuals covering their shorts as well individuals that had tried to shore at the bottom are shorted here or shorted here they all got squeezed and that's what was allowed us to propel up to 36 20 now us did not get that like significant beautiful short squeeze that I did really want to see if we were over here and actually look at shorts I was looking and I talked about this I was looking for a squeeze like this where actually within like a couple hours we actually just like plummet significantly this was much more like sustain this was a nice price movement right here we do see shorts now picking up just a little bit and if we go over here and look at Long's like Long's are just blowing the top off the rough right now Mette Phoenix if we actually look at the number of Long's like they have actually completed the measured move actually of this of this triangle that I had plotted out so that was a twenty four point one five percent increase and actually no get a little bit more room to go until we hit that twenty four percent mark but yeah bloat we have blown past all areas of resistance on the lungs now we're gonna have to go over here and calculate higher higher resistance points for the lungs as well if we go to the daily chart we can see more data what if we used a fib extension cool there we go just one second my good friend that's a good idea right there and right here so looking at the next three areas of resistance because we've we've really blown past them again I always like to set targets in resistance where where we've had previous support but as you get closer and closer and closer to new highs o or touching previous highs you do have to start using actual resistance points as resistance so let's see so let's do a retracement from our recent hi to our new low and we are coming up to that seven eight six Fibonacci retracement this is the last area usually when you're using Fibonacci trading style if you are able to actually break and close above the seven eight six Fibonacci retracement then the trend has shifted to the upside instead of the downside now keep in mind take this with a grain of salt because I am doing technical analysis on incomplete loans and shorts data but for anybody who says that Long's and shorts that it's completely an app inapplicable to apply technical analysis to Long's and shorts data that makes no sense to me because if you're looking at price action and you're willing to take you're willing to take the assumption the technical analysis is going to work on underlying psychology of how markets are being traded which is the decisions of humans which is psychological by nature then Long's and shorts data is just another quantitative data set and the idea that you cannot apply some form of technical analysis to it I I don't it's it seems like a very inaccurate misleading and wrong statement because I have seen I have seen Long's and shorts data respond to technical analysis Fibonacci retracements key points it's all price man everything everything follows certain cycles and certain prices and respect certain levels so Long's and shorts data ultimately is still data that shows people buying and selling just like price data is it's the same activity it's just a different way of presenting the information so obviously technical analysis if which I would hope we agree here for watching this technical analysis works on price price data why wouldn't it work on long it's shorts data it's basically the same data it's just in a different form absolutely man let's see her oh I got to catch up with a chat man J Constance says hey what's going on man bought BTC at thirty one seventy four and sold for thirty to twenty five just scalping every time works for me but I sold too early it's all good man hey your crypto daily what's going on bro now I'm scared BTC will go to the moon man don't come in here and panic dude it's all about slum slow calm patient Trading mint enter doc and first target hit at 260 hey there you go fifth row and man we did we did look at doc yesterday right I wanted to point out yeah you know what's funny is uh Alex what was I talking about last night was it a and B I said that feeling when the technical analysis that you do on your live stream but you don't actually enter the position plays out swimmingly I think it I think it was an was it a MB yeah yeah yeah it was a MB so if you guys recall yeah I somebody had asked me to do to chart a and B to chart a and B on the stream and at that point in time we were like right here and I said yeah man well here's your uh I've got a fit I got I got a fib extension on here now and so the charts getting a little cluttered but these red lines did correspond to the targets that I had drawn out for him and I said well here's your entry here's your entry right here and your stop-loss and yeah worked out quite swimmingly for him so oh we finally broke above resistance on a and B we did break above resistance it's looking it's looking nice let's look at doc I did I had charted this one out yeah there we go yeah I charted doc out for you man I did say not a trade I would take we did hit that first scalp take profit target right there and you aren't you did come down to the lower entry of your you did come down to the lower entry or excuse me the upper entry of that potential entry box that I had talked out that I had talked about now this does kind of scare me a little bit and I'll tell you why not that it not that it scares me but you are potentially depending on how you want to look at this you're either forming aw bottom formation which should resolve to the upside but you actually do need a close above that take profit target it seems like in this particular situation that take profit target also works as resistance you did come up to it and whipped right down from it fairly strongly and we did have this descending triangle pattern that I charted out for us and we are unable to get back up into that channel um so as long as that as long as that kind of maintains now you could you could like foreseeably put your descending triangle pattern down here if you wanted to but this does not look overwhelmingly bullish to me now we start you know and again I hate how this always sounds but it this is just the reality when you start closing with good bullish volume and you start closing above resistance here then you start looking at higher and higher and higher take profit targets but I would be you know just the way I trade as well you've definitely been able to take some profits you have to ask yourself at what point do you trail your stop up to break-even and at what point will you will you allow yourself to trail your stop up even higher but I have to kind of wait and see how this plays out we did get some nice bullish movement right here but we do have the significant resistance area right here that it's gonna be difficult for doc to get over as well these lows right we were responding to the new resistance so see how that plays out but I'm glad you took that trade man I'm glad I worked out for you just remember your risk management and lock in those profits Jay constant I leave the alts to die they recommend it's true man crypto friends what's going on man yes tell us about XRP tell us more about XRP most coins are nothing more than a science project XRP is a real digital asset Reid centralized with real customers creating real adoption and solving real problems the secret sauce was VXR PA men love it bro could we take a peek at GV t very nice movie that you know sure moe take a look at it r am I going to be able to somehow stream the events at the local chapters yeah we will record it and we'll probably upload it oh geez some just happened i just opened GPT did it pop look at that nice movement there on GV t looks like a return to the point of control um man it'll be nice to be in on this one huh ah yes as always let's see so let's take a gander here a wild left price go okay we're gonna have to go to a higher time frame there actually is a little bit of data for this bad boy okay so yeah it's definitely a return to the local point of control yes absolutely in current rejection from that so here's yeah I wouldn't want to enter here oh absolutely not so here yes so let me just let me just take this with a grain of salt guys here's the reality of the altcoin markets with something as volatile as the old coins you're always gonna have pumps like these and if you are lucky enough and fortunate enough to catch it in the early stages so this is a movement of 30% in one day so if you were able to capture that movement and get in fantastic the way here is how you can capture these movements if you're not on the inside of whoever is particularly pumping this coin I mean here's the here's the reality there is very little technical reason for this to have popped up like it is okay besides the fact that you did come down and wick off the 88 six Fibonacci retracement you do see on the daily chart you do see on the daily chart a little bit of a spinning top indecision doji not a strong hammer candle not a strong inverted man hammer can't excuse me it inverted hanging man as well what what did I say a youth dead man hammer I said man hammer man so you did you you have now closed above the seven eight six Fibonacci retracement and that twenty-one period exponential moving average now typically in more traditional markets with when things are in an uptrend a Brea close above the 21 period moving average as a call option for me so if we are able to close this daily chart above the 21 period moving average and we start often Morrow's and we close and we start this next daily candle with a little bit of bullish volume as well then you can potentially look at this on entering but the reality of the situation is you're coming into a you don't even need if you look at VP VR let's take away that that's take away those for a second and let's take away the drawing tools so you can just see look you can see this previous distribution order block of high volume where we broke down from and look where we actually got rejection from currently right now now if you are able to close above this level right here if you are able to close above double zero so twelve thousand fifty one satoshis if you're able to close above that level which is a break resistance and actual true close above it I'm talking about a close not a wet guys a daily chart a twelve hour chart six hour chart four hour time frame then you could potentially be looking at this potentially being the start of something strong but overall I'm fairly skeptical on all coin calls right now the reason why is because well I'm not skeptical on on scalps because we've been taking short term positions in all coins significantly especially on Finance there's still a lot of volume is still a lot of place to be made but how often does something lead to a genuine like continued uptrend like this about five percent of the time and the other ninety five percent of the time everybody that phone moves in at the top on a big green volume spike right here just-just-just gets rekt because it generally retraces more than hundred percent so I'll just be living fading these things if only we could short alts yeah yeah absolutely yeah see right yeah absolutely this would be an area where I would I would love to be looking to take a short position on this so definitely an area where you definitely want to be booking profits if you were lucky enough to get in on this trade anything like an old coin right now anything that looks like this I don't get excited about it again I've said this for a while but for me the true call option on any of these altcoins as when we actually have a daily closed above the 55 period exponential moving average as you can see that is the more legitimate that's the more legitimate call option you can actually see that every time with few exceptions every time you actually do close above the 55 period moving average after retracing to a healthy level so you can actually see here why you would not actually want to take these stabs up here so if we do a Fibonacci retracement here you would not want to take this call option above the 55 period moving average or this one right here because we only came down to the 50% we only came down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement now Dow Theory and traditional markets would be that things do like to retrace 50% but the overlying trend was extremely bearish and you can actually see it that you got faked out it wasn't until you retraced to what the eighty eight point six Fibonacci retracement and then a close above the 55 period moving average that you did actually have a good healthy retracement now look what happened here you did retrace back to the 50 to the 886 Fibonacci retracement and if you are able to close now in my eyes above the 55 period moving average which is sitting a little bit higher than that call option that I had set at about double zero 1205 one so twelve thousand fifty one satoshis if you are able to actually close a Daly above that then potentially we're looking at at some decent targets but we won't we won't have any indication that until that comes and unfortunately the higher potential is that we do come back down but if we are able to if we are able to close above that 55 period moving average then you are looking at a common retrace zone between double zero one 904 4 and double zero 2 506 which from current price actually I'm gonna measure it from where the call option would be for me so I actually expect this to make it down to about here you're looking anywhere from I mean you're looking at a doubling in price you're looking at a hundred percent potential returns but a very skeptical of this have not had a trend reversal yet in most of the altcoin calls so just be cautious guys and make sure that if you are entering trades like this which I don't recommend if you are entering trades like this that you are looking at your risk management very very carefully yes Long's are people who think that bitcoin will go up looking too short etherium now will it be the right decision I think Alex thinks so it certainly looks like it is going to drop if you take a look at the f2 Bitcoin market it's it's looking pretty weak right now so I think here even if we do see a bounce in Bitcoin we might still end up seeing the price of etherium stagnates in USD or even continue to drop where we are at the very if you look at s USD we are at the very bottom right now and if we fall any farther below like you know let's say eighty one eighty dollars we're headed straight to fifty five dollars no question there's just a giant gap in the VP VR if you take a look at it who's good like goodbye eighty hello fifty-five yeah I had to pull up my FedEx chart so I could actually get my my true level yeah I've been kind of saying that for a while looking at ya looking at a theory and Bitcoin actually I do expect it to be value a little bit more now we are creeping right along the bottom of this of this descending channel that we've kind of been positing in and I've been saying this for a while coming up on my next support area right here the next potential buy area for me is between 0.02 1806 and so is 0.01 0.02 – and 0.02 for is really next to buy area for aetherium now is it is it a potential that we do get a little bounce right here yes but more than likely we just get because that is an LVN so right now we currently are at the bottom of an hvn right now that hvn actually extends from two six four two two five eight or excuse me two five seven if we are able to get above two six four then I do since this is an LVN in between that I do expect us to go up and and retest the bottom of the value area which would be around two seven 275 275 thousand Satoshi's I would expect that but more than likely just looking at this chart that would be a rejection and an optimal short entry and then I expect that we do continue moving further down with a theory in Bitcoin I do agree with you I think the ratio will actually get worse I mean it just makes sense from the market standpoint I you know 2016 was the end of 2016 was right around when the etherium I wouldn't say craze I mean it was a bull market there was a Bitcoin craze too but especially the price of ethereum went went sky-high as we all know that yeah now I think you know aetherium and Bitcoin kind of an interesting areas where we have seen the breaks I mean just look at this volatility on the way down and then we can see that the Long's did pick up right here just a little bit and then and then price continues to move down and we're seeing we're seeing something quite different right here this is this is quite different from right here because once the bottom broke we had extreme volatility to the downside and we're seeing that exact same thing right now we did see the bottom break but on very very low volatility at the closing of the week and now actually the daily candle on aetherium is actually more positive than the daily candle for Bitcoin actually which is interesting because the daily candle for Bitcoin continues to be ooh actually the the daily the daily candle for Bitcoin continues to look a little bit better and this is natural we expect to see this during the weekend as I said earlier the reason why is because those who trade on the weekends are generally well actually not generally all retail and retail tends to be if we and we can just look at that commitment of traders report here small buyers this represents retail they've been you know btf doing this entire this entire movement and kind of screaming for the moon and screaming for the moon and you know that's what separates a good trader from a bad trader but more than likely we do see a little bit of green today and early tomorrow and then again like I said I am in a small long position right now but I have my rich risk hedged very significantly I have a very tight stop on it actually and as I talked about I've been very transparent with my positions with you guys as I've been doing this dream and it's uh the the the long is working out well right now actually in decent profits from an average entry of 3175 and but I will not be looking to add to my position or to look into taking a short position until until at least 6:00 p.m. tomorrow until the daily candle closes tomorrow until I can get a better idea of what direction the week's gonna go I might even potentially wait until the livestream on Monday morning to open or re-enter position so let's see here can I can I show you the supports and resistances on Bitcoin well yeah they're right here the the most that I've been able to the best that I've been able to chart out freemen based off the last based off the last downtrend and downturn is right here I'll turn logarithmic on 29:38 2798 being the top of the value area if we take if we take the whole if we take the whole space in here so looking at the hvn we do actually have how I like to use support which is actually the top the true top of the previous resistance that became support as you can see we had resistance back in the summer of 2017 we did have a double top rejection from it came up and whipped off of it we were able to break through in August in July of 2017 and then we worked all the way down and tested that as support before we really had the blow off top now we're Bitcoin round all the way the 19 K with very little very little retraced went in between except for that the except for the beginning of November 2017 and I remember like people were looking to take their lives back then and look if you look at it on the weekly chart like it's just one read week team rolling through everything else and we're actually seeing that exact same thing on the way down but much more um much more choppy and in this long period of consolidation which was distribution and then the levee breaks moving down and we do see price contraction on the weekly as well but nothing nothing like nothing that's telling me that we we wouldn't continue to move down further so I do think that that 3k is gonna represent significant psychological support so as a trader you have to react not predict so I am I am expecting that it will be physically difficult for Bitcoin to break 3k with the number of bids on the order books but that can change on a dime people can pull the bids people can stop letting them get chewed up and traders can come in on Monday and we can have another Bloody Bloody Monday and if we do break below that $3,000 psychological support level I don't expect 2,900 a whole I don't really expect 2798 to hold I think that we might chop through down down through there a little bit kind of like a reverse Bart if you would but I mean that is gonna trigger the floodgates weakly close or a weakly open below the 200 period simple moving average a break of the 3,000 psychological support and and the complete abandonment on the order books yeah that could absolutely happen so looking at the worst-case scenario I have been saying this for a while it's written on it's written on the it's written on my desk I do think the Bitcoin finds a bottom at 23 31 that's the eighty eight point six Fibonacci retracement how long it takes us to get here doesn't really matter and when we get here I do not expect us to be bottom up I do X well excuse me more than likely we do have a good like 30 to 40 percent violent movement and that would tell me that the bottom is in especially if we look back if we look back here at history we actually see the bottom of the bowl at the bottom of the bear market ended in 2015 and you can see that we wick down almost 30% and then in that same week just immediately shoot up we immediately shoot up right right back up to 30 we shoot back up 36% and that's what happens and then we never even remotely come anywhere near that level again and that's how you know that a bottom is in but for the long-term like those who are who are thinking that the bottom is in right now not really believing that not seeing that especially if we look at the daily chart having all these opportunities to buy the bottom is probably not how it's going to work out now again is this a psychological area where we could see a relief rally yes I've been saying that for a while but again now I have hedged my risk and and profits on my positions and we'll look to see how this plays out coming and starting really tomorrow when the daily candle closes tomorrow and looking how Monday's gonna play out for us what's the vertical chart called volume profile assume I assume that's what you're asking about it this is volume profile visible range and people talking about – people must be uh people must be um sending money south of the border that's when – gets really busy Venezuela they like their national especially cuz their money's worthless yes yes absolutely yeah – you had I see this you had a little bit of a double bottom resistance there on the daily chart or excuse me double bottom support you do have still overwhelming resistance you still haven't closed the daily candle above the eight period simple Eric's exponential moving average which is the first thing that I look for to get excited about the volume is not super convincing yet right now the wick is kind of worrying I'm sorry I still had hackintosh young hmm yeah more than likely like what this is if we actually look at shorts right here we did see a recent spike in shorts and then them drop off this is more than likely a bottom shorter squeeze I don't actually see look at the lungs the lungs haven't really picked up on this I don't really see the interest from retail to buy this up but well we'll see how it plays out see how it plays out it's very hard to be optimistic of a bottom in in a bear market guys you just have to I mean the trend is your friend guys until that bend at the end moon Alex hey man um I gotta be going pretty soon so I'll kick the floor over to you if you want to show us what you're looking at bro oh um gosh I you know I've got somebody a lot I got something for I got somebody asking for TRX z18 I know that you recently charted that if you want to talk about that and so here is tell you what let me let me go ahead and turn on my chart sharing just one second yeah and then I'll make you full screen okay okay guys presumably you can see my screen now so I'm gonna head on over to like that hide button at the bottom of your screen so what we're just hide yeah okay okay a TRX a reasonable time frame so what we see here is TRX has a banana and a pretty strong uptrend and it's been forming an ascending wedge which usually breaks to the downside so what we want to see is first of all I are there signs that it's going to break to the downside so on the three hour we see that finally while price is making a higher high it is making a lower high on the indicator so it is beginning to form bear divs let's take a look at another time frame six hour similarly seems as if the indicator just is not responding in price and you can see that up here it's you know there's it's kind of like just heating up there at the top alright now if you take a look at TRX z18 something interesting is happening and that is that it's not in an ascending wedge it's an ascending triangle and now if you can make sense if you think about this as a product of a large short that is being opened up by a via well of some sort or an institution class trader so when someone opens a large position that that changes where the futures market is in comparison to the spot market and it pushes down the price of the futures markets so if someone has a giant cell wall say obviously it's gonna form an ascending triangle because because price isn't gonna be able to breach that so wall as the institution level trader fills their fills their short bags so I I feel pretty strongly about this this TRX short at least down to mmm at least down back to this point of control because first of all it's it's a point of control and second of all we as we see that also kind of conforms to where the bottom of this resistance level and and the where the breakdown of the wedge would take us to all right back to you just okay I'll let it catch up oh my my phone was silenced sorry about that yeah hey whoever whoever followed on twitch I'm sorry I can't give you a shout-out because your name didn't pop up in my in my restream but if you say something I'll give you a shout-out man and thank you so much – I do see YouTube though we did have somebody sub on YouTube so I'll give you a shout-out just a second well my thing loads studio car hey man thanks for the sub on YouTube highly appreciated alright so I got to be going here in just a few minutes so I think we'll close out today with with just in general what I expect to see here 4x BT USD I do expect to see I'm just based off you know basic pattern recognition and my experience in training the weekends do seem to be fairly um you can't put a lot of stock in what you see on the weekends so here we are the the reality the situation hasn't changed a whole lot I expect the situate the situation over the weekend to be fairly range-bound and you pretty much vacillates in between this green box potentially maybe even if we do get a little bit more volume potentially even going up here to retest 3300 as well that's not off the table I don't think that we're gonna see a significant break of our bottom here which we've currently put in right now so right now our current bottoms at 31:22 I don't think they're gonna see a break of that bottom over the weekend but again Sunday at 6 p.m. is when the Asian markets the Asian traders really start picking up and they do carry a lot of they do pack a punch so I'll wait to see what they do and then I'll really wait to see kind of how the CMA future is open and that'll open to tomorrow at at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time or 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time I'll wait to see what they do as well because I do think that that's a leading indicator for what the market is going to be doing so I do expect as weekend's typically go retails are more per retail traders are typically permeable especially the ones that trade on the weekends so more than likely we do see a little bit of a slow drift up I'm not expecting any massive huge volume spikes although some you know Hail Mary Black Swan events can't always happen rainbow unicorns can't always appear in May and Pau around to the ground so I think we're gonna see you know just to reiterate this a little bit of upward movement over the weekend but more than likely I probably will be looking unless things significantly change I probably will be looking at this points unless I see volume dictated different way I probably will be looking to take a short around the $3,300 level down to thirty one hundred and three thousand to retest these areas and I will definitely probably not hold them past that area unless we get an extremely strong high volume break of 3000 that is not a wick so something like a four-hour can look closed below 3000 I'll probably be not panicking just completely set up for that particular situation and trying to capitalize on the panic of others now I still do think it is going to be physically difficult for Bitcoin to break 3000 with the number of bids that are on the on the table there is a lot of bullish sign coming in guys you know and everybody who is screaming that we have to must absolutely are going to right now at this point in time break 3k they're just guessing they're just guessing they there's no data metrics to say that we have to do that in fact the data if you look at the bid-ask some if you look at the Long's and shorts positions if you look at the market depth ratio if you look at the actual data behind the markets that you should be analyzing it actually does pause it to a good reversal at this point in time not the bottom but a reversal let's not forget how bearish people were in April of this year I remember distinctly it calls for 3 K calls for 1 K in April as we hovered around that 6.5 K bottom that that actually held until as we don't November I remember distinctly having a conversation with a friend about where he was going to be setting up his his buys for when Bitcoin fell that far but it took quite a while for us to reach this point so I mean sure maybe maybe there's a hundred percent chance that 3 K is gonna break doesn't mean it's gonna break anytime soon necessarily I absolutely agree hey ma ma thank you so much for the for the follow on twitch man I highly appreciate it math to tip you some of that beautiful MMO guys and bait says caught a 10% profit off of KNC and it was a song and it was on its way back down last time I checked so I'm happy there you go man there you go money make life easy yeah that's right hey man I remember you thanks for rejoining us I feel like shorting everything is the only way to make it yeah up until this point it has been but the problem is is that once it becomes casual to say that is typically the point in time where the same strategy will not carry you into the future so at this point in time the more likely scenario that I am seeing is a potential short at 3,300 to test 3100 3000 we are able to close above 3,300 3400 then I start looking at a potential long to 3,600 and again a strong close above 3,600 4000 to 4400 would be our next targets and a strong close below 3000 then I pretty much looked to be in a comfortable short until I see clear obvious signs of capitulation and they will be fairly easy to spot because Bitcoin will spike down something like 20 or 30% and then spike back up 20 or 30% in a very quick period of time just based off how I've seen markets bottom and just based off what we saw last time when the last bear when the last bear market bottom saw so just be cautious guys make sure that you are managing risk because as long as you're managing risk you actually don't have to be as right as you think you do as far as direction direction matters less than risk management because all you can do as a trader is enter into optimum points where you see good trades and you you tip again like use short resistance and you long support it's very simple and you manage risk and if you keep your risk managed and you are disciplined about how much you allow yourself to lose daily weekly monthly and you keep that the same you use you use your actual portfolio size to determine what amount of dollars you can lose per trade you don't get over your skis you pull out your calculator every single trade you pull out your calculator to determine your risk every single trade and you'll be fine you'll be fine you won't blow your account out and it doesn't really matter which way the market moves because as a trader it doesn't matter I mean as it like people I think that's crazy like as a trader it doesn't matter which way the markets move up down left right sideways it doesn't matter there's a position to be taken there's a trade to be taken everywhere and you know just to sum it to reduce its to a simplest element long support and resistance it's it's pretty simple man you know long confirmed breakouts fade potential breakouts and you'll be fairly successful and manage risk don't let yourself lose more than two to three percent of your entire portfolio on any trade learn when to get out cut your losses quick and you'll be good man you'll be good then it doesn't matter which way we go so that's about all I got Alex you got anything you want to talk about no I think I'm good if they start me on the show today Justin hey no problem man thanks for joining us we will end today as we always do let me see if I got any chat that I missed hey you're funny bro hey thanks so much for joining us man all right guys let's talk about the most important thing you can do with your day besides uh justjust besides being excellent and awesome guys and just having a fantastic it's the weekend man go spend time with your friends and family spend times with the ones you love if you don't have anybody that you I yourself you know read a book or listen to some podcasts just you know relax enjoy your weekend guys so head on over to cracking cryptocurrency dot-com first off if you do if you do like the show if you if you support us being on here if you want to support the stream we're normally here every single morning at 12:12 p.m. Eastern Standard Time 11:00 a.m. Central Standard Time every morning Monday through Sunday we're 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