BITCOIN | Will the parabolic move continue?



what's up guys Philip a trade genius all right it's the new week so we're gonna take a look at the weekly and daily chart a big coin and see what levels are gonna matter there we'll also take a look at the parabolic chart and see how that's shaping up we'll also take a look at our market internals again and see what that's telling us we now have some actionable levels on the fear and greed index so we'll discuss those in this video we'll take a look at the tether chart discuss the gap chart on the futures we'll discuss price relative to the Chinese yuan and and we'll discuss the monthly RSI all right guys let's get into this video all right guys let's dive into the weekly chart technicals have topped out and rolled over a bit but currently not in any extreme reading this last weekly close here was pretty bullish we basically recovered from these lows of nine thousand seventy three and closed green for the week so that was a pretty bullish reversal there again this was going back to levels from where the Libra coin announcement kind of started this last final leg up on this current move rolled over and retested that those levels that basically it launched from so leave roundtrip that entire move and subsequently bounce so now we're getting into kind of this range bound trading which I was expecting to see was just that we we completed this move from the Libra announcement at first so now we're getting into this behavior that I was expecting to see which would precede a move then out of this range but we'll get into that here in a little bit for the Bulls really this is gonna be about gaining back above 11,000 then getting the weekly closed back above 11,000 as well as a daily chart a bigger picture on the weekly we're looking at a fib range here which currently we've pulled back to the 382 actually we went through that a bit held this block here that I was looking at off of this candle on the weekly handle so that seems to be on par for Bulls holding this move so for this fib range we're looking at an extension up here at 16,000 325 okay so that would be I think the destination final destination for this move and then we're gonna see how this plays out and see if this ends this entire move and we take a break from there or we consolidate we'll take a look at that level but I think we're if we can start clearing back above 11 K I think that green lights that level up here so basically be from sixteen thousand and seventeen thousand in that area on the bearish side of things we still have this larger fib level so this goes from our all-time highs down to the most recent low of our bear market in December and so we've again these big fib levels will not give up without a fight and you can see there's been a lot of movement into that but ultimately the Bears defend in that level on this first go-around obviously if we get back up into this area that's gonna be pretty bullish and that's also something else that we'll be expecting to see if we clear this 11 K level again this would be the next key area to key in on this sub 30 and level all right let's take a look at the daily chart so you'll notice here after we pulled back we bounced off this level and kind of went sideways a little bit here we're dipping a little bit here as long as this holds here and I expect this just to continue chopping and kind of similar to what we see back here so we had our move up in the range it pulled back you get a little bit of chop this has been pretty par for the course before leaving these areas of range that we've seen you get so sideways action and then then you start marching out of it and we'll look at that more on the parabolic chart so we're starting to see that a bit of a sideways now now that we've finished off this this area here up and down so we'll look for this range to hold but again if we cannot you know 11,000 has rejected over the weekend so that that has to get reclaimed and I don't care if we chop a little bit but that's if this does not get reclaimed fairly soon that we could see a roll over and something for you Bears to keep an eye on if this goes down then we could be looking at this lower fib level of this range here down at 8000 95 or so that would definitely close that gap on the CME but we're not there yet right now we're just as far as I'm concerned this is just consolidating in a range but getting a close below 10k on a daily would be pretty bearish at this point so that's basically for the week ahead it's all about the 10 K and 11 K level so for anywhere in between that's just consolidation and that would be interpreted as bullish just because of all of the previous ranges have been consolidating and then marching out of that consolidation toward the end of those ranges another thing I want to look at is the monthly RSI since we're here we'll just look at that real quick alright so this is the monthly RSI something just to be aware of is that you know whenever we get a move up to these levels so right now we're at 65 as of last month's close and this will get updated here and on the next month close but will notice that typically when you get these levels you know you're seen once you get up to these levels that's the start of a larger move and you get these you know extreme readings up into the 90s okay so we haven't seen where a Bitcoin just stops and then you know doesn't continue this train higher so we should be well into a bull move ultimately that will see these 90s now obviously this is a monthly chart so this is gonna be a longer-term play out when we came out of the 2014-2015 market we did get up to these levels and pulled back for a bit from June to August so would be perfectly normal to see a couple month pullback or slash consolidation and go higher but I think this is and follows with the having cycles that we're well on our way to making a new all-time highs on this move so we're nowhere near anything that tells us that we're at hitting like a major top on this current bull move let's take a look at the parabolic chart okay guys so obviously we've talked about having our basis of consolidation so base for again we're looking in force here is that consolidation on the daily we're kind of looking at like we saw at base three and toward the end of base two so really guys the key here is going to be clearing 11,000 so if we see a daily close above 11,000 and then I think it's safe to say that we're starting to leave this area of consolidation and then we get another thrust up and this again would take us toward the 16 to 17,000 area which is this red line here if it blows off and you get us a parabolic move and gets into that range of 3.4 that fib area which is historically when you see the 3.4 moves those are the end of the moves for a long time and then they consolidate out then that would probably mean that that's a top four at least until q4 or of this year q1 of 2020 and that would still play into the halving cycle that wouldn't be a bad thing it's just that this thing you know got ahead of itself quite a bit but again this week it's all about holding 10 kaor breaking 11k if you're the you know that's the bull bear scenario alright let's take a look at the internals alright guys so the internals again you'll see this line in the sand here just north of 11,000 again that's gonna be key internals basically you know they've been if we look at the funding rate okay so this is if there's more shorts than the funding rate goes negative it because the shorts have to pay the Long's and vice versa so this just shows you kind of where the trade is crowded nothing extreme here a lot of these moderate negative readings have been areas of chop and bottoms now what we're looking for here guys on the funding rate is to see it flip to the positive and then but we need to see a break the first break we want to see back above here would be 10,000 650 this week and if we can get back above that level right now we're at 10,000 to 30 we had a little dip here if we can get back above 10,000 650 I think that's probably gonna open the door for another crack at 11,000 closed daily close above 11 K those key for right now but nothing extreme on these readings again I think this is especially on this move cents up from the summer these areas of negative to flat have been consolidation and then break higher so that opens the door for that move as far as the long short exposure shorts are starting to creep back up here Long's have been fairly steady shorts as you know have dropped off on these areas where ceiling I guess big hedge positions taken off and ultimately that's created weakness and the price action haven't seen that and we are getting a little bit of uptick on that if this grows quite a bit that usually gives us a lot of fuel for a short squeeze but nothing extreme so far the internals here so again I think that plays into more of a consolidation type scenario let's look at that crypto fear and greed so we had a reading of 42 let's go scroll and look at the chart all right so the chart we saw a low reading of on the July 15th of 16 and then another dip on the 17th of 19 so 16 and 19 so these are areas especially the 16 level my rule of thumb back in the bear market was anything below 16 we'd wait for a move up and then you'd go along that and that was very that was a very good entry system again with the bull market we were looking for okay what's our high-low reading so I think now we've got excellent high readings if you look on the 15th and the 17th where we had these two lows so here's the 15th and then here was the 17th 17th was the low interesting we we had a higher fear of reading than we did back here now thing to keep in mind with the fear and greed is that those values print about four hours after the daily bar open so you're not getting the full day's action when those print it's more about like the second or the the prior day more than the current day so when that seven when that fifteenth printed that low that was because of this big bar here so this bar closes four hours later you get that fear and greed reading and we did get a little bit of a bounce we did make another low but that was what was weird was that this low here then created that 19 reading of fear you would have thought it would be lower but it wasn't so that was something interesting you actually had a bullish divergence with regards to the fear and greed levels and then this thing moved back up and that was the local low there off that so those areas now I think are a good sign post for what is a bounce area just like up here was a good area in those 90s for a top area okay so that's that's what we were waiting for I think now we have got a nice gauge for the bull market on the crypto fear and greed all right let's take a look at the tether cap alright guys tether cap still grinding higher even though we're in this stuck in this range right now that's okay that's what happened here we were in this range no you know this moved down here to 76 98 that looked like looked pretty bearish and tether had pulled back in and started going higher again and then there was a couple more days of consolidation before the move the move out taking out this prior high so you kind of want to see that here tethered pulled back a little bit and it's looking the bounce a little higher so again the key here would be breaking that 11,000 that's the reoccurring theme here and that but that's gonna be a big level to confirm that yeah it looks like we're gonna break out of this fourth base of consolidation but the tether cap not indicating that money's coming out of the system it's still you know our moving average of this is still grinding higher as far as see any gaps no real gaps over the weekend look and this 85/15 is still there and that keeps coming up in conversations one thing I will a different perspective guys if you go to a two-day chart there is no gap a lot of these gaps that fill even after a while are visible on more than just a daily chart like you go to two day or three day and they're still there so just interesting note there gaps don't have to fill it's more of a self-fulfilling prophecy traders will will start eyeballing those levels when they start getting down there that's why this move here I think off this daily candles was pretty bullish because you know usually get to the within proximity the daily close or the gap you'll see that just that final capitulation moved to close it and the bullish demand was was high here so I think you know I look at that as pretty bullish but again you got to be adaptive so if 10k doesn't hold and you have to look at this coming back into play so we're not out of the woods as far as the gap Phil I just don't think that north of 10k it's a likely scenario all right last but not least let's take a look at the Chinese devaluation line on a daily chart you can see just it's been ranging and Bitcoin you know kind of has been surging up and up and down but like big picture it's just been kind of sideways ranging you know it topped out pulled back a little bit in range so if we get more devaluation than let's think spikes higher that's gonna be more fuel for the Bitcoin fire so I think this in combination with the tethers is kind of giving the fuel to this current move but so we'll just keep eyes on it as far as you know the lower timeframe stuff again this does I think on the four-hour effective bitcoins moves but again we just really have not seen there's not a lot to glean from this upward down so if we do see a larger move one way or the other we'll do an update later in the week to give you guys a heads up but otherwise this is just basically saying more sideways feathers giving us more of a clear indication that the future price action is going to be up alright guys well that's it for this video again I think big picture it's going to be about holding 10k or breaking 11 K and I think that move that daily close below or above those levels is gonna dictate where this is going above 11 K resume the parabola below 10 K possible gap fill alright guys that's it for this video you guys watching please hit like and subscribe if you have any questions or comments leave them below and we'll get back to you and I'll catch you on the next video take care guys bye bye

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