Bitcoin Technical Analysis (BTC/USD) : A One Horned Bull [02.22.2019]

[Applause] alright guys before we get into the Bitcoin video just real quick and just a reminder here that we are running this contest that this would go for the next Oh we're into the drawing on March 20th so there's plenty of time here to really crank up the number of entries so we're doing it's a giveaway we're giving away two two months of membership that's four hundred dollar value second second place is one month two hundred dollar value third place two weeks one hundred dollar value so seven hundred dollars in membership giveaway very simple to answer and participate here so you do need to come here the link will be directly underneath this video you'll see membership giveaway you click that now you do have to register you just have to put in your your email address so damn near the main reason being if you won we'd want to be able to contact you we're not gonna spam you with a bunch of so and then you'll need your Twitter handle so it all ties to likes retweets shares on Twitter so every time you like share retweet that gives you a new entry now this is showing zero entries because this would be as though I were going in for the first time obviously I'm not in it so there's 26 days left so we've got thousands of entries already and they will continue to climb but again it's very easy to get a dish to improve your odds and we hope that the reason you're liking sharing retweeting is because you think your network might might appreciate the content that that's what we hope anyway so it's also you'll find this over on our Twitter feed it's a pin tweet right at the very top so if you have any questions about it or whatever reason aren't clear about how it works you can find all of this information that same link will be here as well alright so well i won't bombard you with this but while while we're getting this launched here and going into the weekend i figure i just give you one one more reminder for the week alright so with that list let's get started look on at Bitcoin all right guys how we doing say I'm here with you it's Friday this 22nd of February and we're course on a Friday will do an update on Bitcoin here so this will be relatively short there's not a lot to add there's a few things here I want to point out now in the last video I think was Wednesday we had laid out a potential bullish case here on the on the possibility that we that we've bottomed here and that we've just gone into a 1/2 and now we're trying to get started on the 1 of what would be the third relative to that larger scale well of course we cannot eliminate the possibility here that all we're doing is we're still in a triangle here whether it's here here that we're still just working through this the possibility here what's wrong one here we go so we're doing something like this so a we've got an ABC here into a B we're good we gone and put it put up the C here come down for the D then we go for the E and that sets up the move down towards potentially some of those lower targets 2,200 2,600 there I'll go polls that have both of those as targets it so you know you look at this and of course we want we want to be bullish but there's there's a few things working against the bulk out here one you can see here just the market geometry we have the upper parallel here from this pivot which is the lower of the two well additionally and I just showed this over on Twitter if we grab this pivot here and we worked out let's get to the lower one here I don't think I'm right on that now it's close enough you see here so we've had this intersection so we have this nice confluence of geometry right here so we get the two median lines we have apartment we'd have a center median line here and then the upper parallel intersecting right here so not terribly surprising that we've run out of steam now this of course this can move there's all sorts of places that can go so let's take that off for now but I just I showed that so this will be the next significant resistance we're gonna need to get through so we can break 4200 when get to get through it with some some gusto here then the possibility here that we're just putting in a a one of the three is gonna start to look better well here are a few negatives so let me let me clear this up here now we've got that established sure I'm just gonna get these off so we can get a better look without the geometry on there so first this this where we are here asks you what amount of three hour let's get under one hour so this looks more you know it's hard to hard to get the subdivision just right here you can make a case for a one two there's a one two three three could be here it's easy made a bit of a guesstimate here it looks like you can get three three so you may have had it's a bit of a guess here as to what we've got cuz we don't have great subdivision here where's the three you can make it there is a little there there is yeah it's a diagonal there's a little diagonal here in this this move here from this pivot there is a diagonal that would get us up to a to a fifth here so this is a contender it's still still a possibility so in if that's the case then the a is likely in the B just went in we're gonna come down here we're gonna look for the C ideally here we would stay in the in the tighter range up here between the 23 and the 38 that would be ideal then we'd make this push up here to go after that algo target okay and of course nothing says we have to stop there well if that becomes the five and we get more than it still it could it still be C well of course it yeah of course you can write you can still be a C but it's going to start to look better as as a potential in this case if we hold here it's going to be an impulse now of course we can finish the C with an impulse here so if this this certainly could be a B and then we're gonna get an impulse here so that could still be the C but we kind of back it up and look well how is that gonna look for the for the larger count well if we get here so let's just for the sake of looking at it let's let's say we pivot here at the four so we'd have to label this now is a B and we'll get a we'll get an impulse out of it again assuming we don't overlap here if we get this well we'd still very much have the possibility that we've just we've just done an ABC with a little more of an extension in the C so if you if you look at it just do the math or the the FIB swings I get it right on there take it from the two well no this we if we get well you know we're kind of a little shy of it here so here's one thing that may be a tell if we get through the algo target and we get you know let's get that off there if we get through the algo target we get to the to the one six one eight one seven five and then the there's it sort of depends on how do we do we retrace before we're getting there or just let me take this off or do are we gonna do it now right is this the four that's gonna get us there then you might be able to look at this and think maybe maybe the three is here the five is going higher the four is still yet to come threat of hope for that but we're gonna need to see some price action here pretty quickly here because we're just stuck in this hundred dollar range and you can see this is common for Bitcoin to do there's there's the pump consolidation pump consolidation pump consolidate is just all over the place but up and down so it's it's it's a tough one to make a call here so how the only way we're definitively going to know well so first this will be so this will be a bit of a tell as to what what direction we're going here and if we start to roll over which seems the most obvious thing to happen here so I you know you just look across the crypto Twitter or the truce rear what you know whoever you know other analysts and educators you follow there is generally an assumption here that we've stalled and that we're heading back down well the more people I see leaning into that the more I start to think more bullish lis but to really be definitive about this if there's going to be a pull back here to set up a fourth so if the three is in if if if the three is in well this this this retrace is gonna need to be relatively shallow it's gonna need to hold here to keep that looking stronger and stronger now of course we could just come to the fifty so we wouldn't invalidate here if we're gonna get a just a straight algo retrace off of the pivot here if we get that 50 and we still go this still we don't lose that we don't lose the impulse so we still have the potential for the impulse here now there are a few negatives as we stall here well one going back to the fib swings if I just this is the start of it if I use the length of the one projected from the right on that to here well we're currently stuck between the 101 to seven more calm I'm gonna push this aside more common if we stall there for an ABC in fact that would be the prime zone you'd be looking for that C to finish is right in that pocket between those two that's the highest probability just like this would be for your wave three so if we start if we if we can't get legs here and we start to roll over and we start to head down that's gonna look a lot more like an ABC I mean it's still yeah there's a little subdivision and it's a little question mark here again you know five allocations probably give you five counts to five different counts they're here so what they're going to be tells as we break out of this range because we're not going to stay there so because because of that because of the more the range that we're in leaning us more into a C wave here well then you start thinking well what would be characteristic if we're running out of steam here well let's just take a look at some oscillators let me open this up just a little bit well one bring this down here we go so we can see this little but what we've relieved at least temporarily so and I'm down here on a one hour we've relieved that overbought status here that accompanied this this push as we stall here we relieve that overbought status so the RSI starts to come down we know we didn't make a full loop to what do I have it here on thirty we didn't make it to 30 and now we're hovering back so the potential is here for this tube just kind of you know wiggle around here and then kick up again you don't have I noted this here over on Twitter as well we don't have classic divergence here in fact this is slightly higher here but if it's gonna play as a as well so if it's a and then this is the B and that's the C well then we do have just a whiff of divergence here just barely just enough here now this wouldn't wouldn't you wouldn't call that divergence because the the proposed here as I have it labeled remains to be seen if that's what it gets labeled but that wouldn't be relative here because we don't have a new high here so this being the higher high so could if this if this kicks that could be an indication that we put the four in here so there's just so many ways to interpret this but the biggest problem right now is that we're in a zone that's more typical for a C than for a three so if this starts to weaken here it's going to look more like this is an ABC and then the triangle comes back into play now there is I did I did show this over on on Twitter here and just to again I I'm always looking for different ways to to apply median lines here so this seemed didn't seem that dramatically radical here let's get this right you've got two of them here to play with but this one this is the absolute low so I think that's what they're likely to use let me get this right on that okay so so here as we've just tagged the median line here this is potentially resistance so we hover here and we hold mark and maybe this is a very common the market will tag a median line even though this is a somewhat of a non-traditional approach to it we'll tag this build it's a bit of a decision as the market decides and we're gonna start to pull down are we gonna move away from it here now this this would not be unreasonable here we have natural potential just that potential support here or are we gonna hover and then work towards the higher the higher parallel so this is a bit of a negative in that we've got this structural resistance here and then as I had drawn it up previously we have the more traditional looking here we've got this intersection of all that geometry now additionally from the from the pivot up here for looking at this as a candidate for for the what would be the ABC here de so this you know for C to go we're we're through the golden zone 786 is still holding up here but this this whole code this whole area here this all of this more characteristic of a C than of a 3 so hope remains there there's still the possibility that this has this has more legs in it but if it starts saying you know scoff and common over a weekend will see some volatility if this starts to come down well here's the you know here's the pretty significant tell right here as to how we do that well there's a couple of them here this will be significant this will be significant so as we just just draw it up like we would let's get all of this off of here kind of identified potentially some of the reasons is why we're stalling here if we're gonna draw it up as just looking for a relationship between the two on the assumption which we we can't really be definitive about that the that that if that's going to play as the third that the third is in and it's not going to be a see if the third is going to come in here and we're gonna come down for the four were you sure would want to see the 50 hold so note we have this structure here we have the one relative to this move here so this would be kind of the if we I would really want to see this hold if we can come out of that and get that well again as I showed you earlier that wouldn't eliminate the possibility that we're still just in them we still just have that triangle coming here look you can see here even still we'd have we'd still have the the symmetry of a triangle so if we start to come down then it'll be the same thing so here's here's how we're gonna know here just to try and wrap up so if we looked at and we if we get this big if if we get this how are we gonna know whether it's a C or the one of the three well you're not gonna know until we see what happens at the next retreat now this again I do not have this I don't know that that's the three but if we followed this kind of a path and we get in this case what would be an impulse here well you could start to lean a little more bullish lis here because the anticipation would be if the if this is going a B and then we're going into a C you wouldn't expect an impulse here now it could it could be an a B and a C is gonna be at a higher level we don't have to stay in a triangle here we don't have to and that way that still could be the four but the bigger tell is going to be what happens on this retracement I want this so if we come down here we get an a B and C and this holds as as the 50 and then we start to go up then you're going to start to get more and more people are going to start to get more and more bullish myself included so then the idea here is that the two could hold and we've just put in the one of the third relative to this two one two so this would this would ultimately be have no end back here so that four wouldn't be in play here so we'd have the potentially just the one wave we wait for the retrace and then here's the tail what what what happens right here do we come down it in three and then get a push up to go up and challenge well here would be the algo target we'd be breaking that so that's the area to be watching for so first question is what happens as we come out of this consolidation which way are we going if we do get the push up and that's a big if but if we do and we wait to see what happens here if we get if we come down here and we can come out of this strongly and go even just the first algo target then it's going to start to look more and more bullish and potentially reinforcing the idea that the long term low is in right we're not there yet but that possibility remains alive now if this if we stall here and we spend the weekend doing this all bets are off and then we just lock back into the ABC we go back into the triangle and then we wait wait for the next pivot alright okay before I wrap up just a reminder we have this contest going on so I spared you till the end of it so if you can bear with me here for another 30 seconds just a reminder the link will be underneath this video so if you're interested in that contest that we're running or it's you know we're giving away $700 worth of memberships at trade Devils University so if that interests you you do have to register right yet so that's the that's the link that you'll find underneath it and then it's your entrance are your entries are tied to the number of likes tweets and reshares over on twitter so it really all focuses on Twitter so if you see something you like you share it you get another entry see something else you like share it retweet it that's that's two entries so every time you tweet like share that's going to give you a new entry increase your probabilities of winning all right so it's a random drawing to be done on them on March 20th alright guys I'll be back we're looking a couple of alts as well here but that'll be it for Bitcoin okay I'm gonna be interesting to see which way we go talk to you later

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