Bitcoin Rallies On…? ETF, Marketing, Levels to Watch, US Dollar, Big Money Psychology – Ep219



what's up guys this is car tops with coin mastery TV how you doing weekly update you can see my voice is a little hoarse I went to a Phish show last night and yelled and screamed and sang along it was great but that's why my voice is a little lower than usual if you're new here hit the subscribe button sign up for the email newsletter list coin master dot-com /e invest thumbs up the whole thing today what we're talking about is obviously what's going on with Bitcoin we're going to talk a little bit about historical Bitcoin levels and how it compares to these Bitcoin levels and then I want to talk about a few other things kind of starting with the micro which in this case starting with Bitcoin and price at Bitcoin and then slowly moving into okay what's the bigger picture around the cryptocurrency space and then what's the bigger picture in the global economy and how does it Bitcoin fit in I think that that may help be a good body call it perspective or whatever they want to call it I don't know and then finally I did a poll a couple days ago which I thought was really interesting and it may not be for the same reasons that people may think I want to explain why which I think you guys will find a lot very interesting so big question in everyone's mind is what's going on Bitcoin right now well there's a million different opinions obviously I don't know why this is on the three-hour it's kind of weird let's go to four-hour if you're listening on the podcast I'm just looking at the four-hour chart on Bitcoin I'm actually looking a bit bit Mex just because I like the volume but it's basically the same thing and these lines are the same lines that I've had drawn for last two weeks or so the red lines below are just a historical low levels so the first one I'm going to move my face out of the way here so you guys can see the prices is it 5460 that's gonna vary by about fifteen or twenty dollars depending on what exchange are on and then 58 eighty right around where the the previous law is that might be more closer to fifty eight hundred for the most recent drop down low many people are calling the the full bottom some people are not I I have no idea I'm not really interested in trying to predict that what I am interested in is these how these zones are starting to form and we talked a bit about this last time for anybody who wants to refresher one of the things that you're starting realize especially with Bitcoin especially the nature of this market manipulation and the leverage and the ability to move markets and the international kind of 24-hour cycle of it is that you'll notice that there's always these blocks where it either moves a ton very quickly or it's consolidating for an extended period of time and what you learn is that it's really not worth trying to you know play this game very much unless you're experienced trader unless you really want to learn about it but it's really hard to make a lot of money and or keep your sanity while you're doing this and so I think one thing I've I've definitely taken away from the last month or so is it it's a lot better to just take a position on Hayes's bullish is as bearish or is this I don't know and plan accordingly and keep your trades down to one or two and then kind of have breaking points of well if it goes below this I know that it wasn't bullish if it goes above this I know that it wasn't bearish and then reassessed in a couple days once the picture is clear and so that's why I want to draw that why I like to draw these lines now these drawings are these lines are drawn mostly from historical levels one thing that we looked at last time is this volume profile indicator I'm gonna move myself up here so you guys can see how this is in the visible range right so this is calculating all the volume from the range that you can see so if we go let's basically go from them from November to now we are currently right smack in the middle of the highest volume historical at this level meaning that this is where the most volume has been treated historically this this price whether it be back in November right around Thanksgiving whether it be all the different times that we've gone up and down through this price and then also right here now this is there's a little bit of bias in that data because like volume in this market gets bigger and bigger so there may be more weight on today's volume but the fact remains that the way you read charts one of the ways you can read charts is that you can look at this sort of thing and so that's why this current blue line is what we're looking at that is also why there's probably a good amount of resistance and there has historically been a good amount of resistance and transition within this area you'll also see above here is this other blue line which is right around ninety eight seventy five let's call that 9900 maybe if you've been up flat 10,000 for psychological reasons but you can see that depending on how you draw this volume profile bar that is where there's a big drop-off in volume meaning once you get through there there's it's what they consider kind of new territory so if we could break through that that becomes a very very bullish area where there's probably not going to be a whole lot of immediate resistance not saying it's gonna go parabolic or anything like that I mean anything can happen in these sort of markets but that is why I drew the lot the line there so what am I doing about this I'm gonna clean this up a little bit I'm gonna take this off and remove myself back down here a little bit let's actually let me keep it up there just so you guys can see better so what am i doing about this well first of all I want to see if this price comes back down to this previous line the 7700 line potentially even down to this 74 you know very I guess more aggressively down to 8,000 right work at where this previous balance was but I want to see what the direction of this current movement is I want to see if this is a sustainable bull run because this happened very very quickly or if this needs to consolidate in order to get moving the other thing that I'm a look at is go up to the daily chart and I'm gonna start to look at the moving averages right and so an aggressive moving average to look at would be you know the 10 to 20 and the 50 but I have another template for a long term which is what I really like to look at to determine if you're in a major Bull Run which is winning at the 50 100 200 exponential moving averages and when this starts to move up that's when you like you can be very very sure that the trend is moving in a specific direction you know medium term like we just talked about what I want to look for is when this price comes down and starts to bounce off of this moving average that is when I would probably buy in I would compare to where it is on this chart that would be like a much higher probability that ok I'm buying into a technically speaking a Bull Run that's that's you know getting some support from this momentum I might not get the best price but these prices always come down whenever you look at these historic bull runs they get the big pumps they retrace down to the lines especially once they cross over so you know you might miss 20% of the first part but you can still ride it for as long as possible so that's really what I'm waiting for just waiting this this deep move I'm waiting for it to pull back get a more natural shape compare it to these levels so for anybody who is waiting or trading or anything like that I think that the signs of this being a bull run are looking pretty good but for confirmation reasons you want to wait for it to come back it always comes back remember that I mean it's like it's with nothing else that's one thing we've learned in the past year it always comes back and having guidelines of where you buy in especially if you're if you're looking to go go long you know and if breaks through there then you sell it you wait for it to reset and start again but that's what I'm doing no this is professional advice as always but that's what we're looking at now what's causing this right like well the next big question is what's the big deal I'm not going to spend too much time on like other part the market other thing which I posted on Twitter is the last time that we were on you know we had this kind of price movement or we at this price was November it was like Thanksgiving November 24th or something like that last year and I was opposed the question what was different and there's a lot you can go on Twitter Carter Thomas on Twitter go check it out and you could see some of the responses I think it's pretty interesting just to think about that and you know another thing you could do is always go back and watch some of the videos from November and you know take a look and what we were talking about and all that sort of thing but let's look at some of the other things that people are talking about one is the ETF right so the the CBOE and there's a lot of ETFs that are being proposed to the SEC right now that's getting a lot of discussion that's potentially bringing a lot of bullish sentiment which i think is true but that just feeds into this whole idea that you know what's a reason people have to buy a speculative asset and you know an ETF is as good a reason as any and there's there's fundamental reasons to i mean if it's if it's buying up bitcoin through that that's a big one my personal opinion on top of the etf is that i think that this is a very very big deal this is a – a tweet by brian anderson armstrong excuse me who is the CEO and founder one of the founders of coinbase and coinbase just got whitelisted back on facebook meaning they can set they can do cryptocurrency ads on facebook where as I think was it January or so Facebook originally had banned all cryptocurrency advertising and so they got whitelisted meaning they can advertise to retail people to come in by you know $100 worth a Bitcoin or whatever coins they want a venture that's gonna lead into buying a Bitcoin base index once they make that non-accredited investors so this is a big deal the other piece of this that's really interesting is if you watch Google or maybe don't watch it but like Google had their earnings report I think Facebook's earnings reports are either today or tomorrow but google their advertising business is absolutely through the roof so they're making huge amounts of money they're having huge volume on their advertising side Facebook I'm sure is gonna have the same numbers this is still a massively viable and effective use of marketing dollars that has never been used before or been available to get retail signups has been relying on word-of-mouth and referral programs you know like all the links you see on sign up record base using my link or whatever it may be so I think this is actually a very very big deal and I don't even think they've rolled it out very hard I mean you can see the screenshot it's it's demo because it's like they took a screenshot out of the ads manager I'm sure they don't even have retargeting pixels on their website yet that's more of like if you know marketing there's a lot of things that they're not doing that you would do if you're really starting to ramp up your marketing so this has not even really been rolled out in a big way yet and I've always said the the way you go with to the big moon is not through like you know huge sovereign banks coming in and trying to bind a Bitcoin you want 25 million people to come in and buy point 1 Bitcoin or light coin or theorem or whatever any of the assets you want huge amounts of people to own a little bit because that's what makes a real market that's historically what's always driven it ETFs index funds and this sort of thing is ace extremely big deal so if you've ever watched or I don't know maybe you've you've noticed I've talked about this a few times on my what do you call Twitter profile the pin post this is what it talks about right we've talked about how people are going to buy all this the big companies they're really interested in the infrastructure there's a great interview of what's guys the digital currency group guy Barry Silbert and where he talks about the biggest investments that are making are and the on-ramps in to crypto space right the exchange is the wallets things like that and that's what's happening right now once they get of an invested stake in the equity in those companies then they can start to market it so coin today's is kind of leading they're probably maybe six months or a year ahead of what the rest of the world is going to do and you can see that they're following this playbook very very quick clearly step for being market to retail investors who buy on exchanges so that's a big deal keep that in mind keep your eye out for advertisements on on Facebook on Google YouTube wherever you see advertisements not necessary for people selling like courses and how you gonna make bucks but for people you know exchanges trying to get you to come and sign up on the exchange and to buy something so I think that a lot of that is driving from a fundamental standpoint I think from a technical standpoint there's a lot of pent up demand there's you know people who are just ready to start buying in the volume on this on the CME is growing which is the futures market which is actually starting to you know it's a couple hundred million bucks a day in cash-settled futures but that's still that's something so there's a lot like the technical reasons there's fundamental reasons and then the macro things reasons that are out there is that we're starting to see a lot of not confusion but like there's not a lot of places for money to go right and so one one thing I I look at a lot is the dollar right I think that the US dollar and look and knowing what's going on the US dollar is really really helpful to understand what's going on the global economy because the US dollar really pegs itself to not only currencies but oil to the stock market to a certain extent and when you back it out the you know the stock market which really is a barometer of the economy at least in the United States but really globally is a byproduct of corporate earnings which of not showing any signs of slowing down and interest rates which directly affects the dollar and the way that the Federal Reserve and Trump and you know that they're kind of clashing about this because the Federer Reserve wants to raise interest rates which will make the dollar stronger that traditionally hurts the economy it lowers the you know stocks corporate earnings go down there's buybacks debt there's all these things it's all coming to a head right now and what's happening is when this all comes to a head asset managers hedge funds everybody is starting to you could see this in the portfolio analysis these you know see this all day all these charts like capital outflows the co T analysis all that where's the money gonna go it's got to go somewhere an obviously crypto and Bitcoin it cannot handle a fraction of a percentage of the amount of money that we're talking about here but it is starting to get like a legit second look from people because of you know things like the futures market because of these custodial services because this investment index opportunities it's starting able to look like not a an attractive or even a bullish asset it's just like at least we have another option of a place to park money or at least a place to speculate to drive yield when the rest of our portfolio is weather you know maybe uncertain or it's just like we don't know what to do right because there's all these other these things the you know whether it be bonds would be bad yields look the inversion of the of the yield curve the stock market there's a lot of uncertainty and this I think is starting to become a real thing with Bitcoin so keep the keep your eyes open for that I think that that's super important where this is the first time I've ever really started to see Bitcoin and cryptocurrency get a real look from people in the macro institutional space I don't think it's like part of a portfolio structure yet but there is start we are starting to get that pain that pressure that we talked about last time from the other side I think the stock market is gonna have a really rough week in the next couple weeks for right just because there's so much pent-up pressure and then we'll see like how that plays out like obviously big money institutional money it takes a while for any sort of movement to happen when you're talking about like even ten million dollars I mean that's not very much money in that world but you may start to see you know a serious movement overall will it translate to price I don't know it may may just go straight into pre-sales of some of these ideas or some of these companies they may just try to get equity in the companies as opposed to working on the utility tokens or the – or the security tokens or whatever but keep an eye on that it's a gonna this is a big deal and this is you're starting to see this the pressure like it's it's almost like you can almost you can see it just building up one post I thought was really good Jesse Felder if you guys don't know who Jesse felder is he's got a great blog called the Felder report calm I'll link this in the show notes go check it out he always has really interesting things and he if you're interested in this kind of historical stuff which I think a lot of people are based on trying to predict Bitcoin you know versus things like gold or the internet bubble like kind of map it against previous trends he looked at what Ray Dalio talked about with the analog to the 19:37 kind of market right ad that started in the 20s and led into the 30s and how he compares it to their current decade now the idea of an analog excuse me is uh was I think I don't know if it was originally started by Paul Tudor Jones but if you watch the documentary called the trader about Paul Tudor Jones it's amazing and he did this for the 1987 crash where he looked back and kind of predicted in 1929 1930 crash and depression and he'd mapped it to the 1987 stock market Dalia kind of did the same thing but on a broader deleveraging cycle which is what this is in because it's just like how much you know so much a debt is corporate debt is being used for buybacks like it's got to get D leveraged with interest rates and so he's starting to map this stuff out which i think is really interesting and as this happens like we talked about the money's got to go somewhere where's it gonna go can't you can't go in you know you're not going to more and more money into a losing stock market if the bond if bonds are going down we're gonna put it into t-bills maybe okay but emerging markets commodities you know the gold but the gold is going down crypto starts to look really interesting so starting to look at this reading articles like this at least once a week I think it's just very helpful is it kind of stuff that I love I'm super interested in as you guys know now the last thing I wanted to mention was this poll I put out which is which says it was which would you rather invest in which is grammatically that's not a very good I know that that could be written better the first is asset a has a 95 percent chance of returning 2% asset B has a 75% chance of returning 7% now I know that that's a it's not a very good question because and you guys pointed this out well what's it what's the other alternative right if it's not 95 percent chance or what's the five percent chance of like does it am I gonna lose 10x and I'm gonna lose all my money I would kind of think about this like stocks and bonds right the average of a stock over five years is gonna be seven percent give or take average of a bond I'll be two percent that's historical numbers and the reason why I wanted to do a poll on this is because one thing that that I've learned a lot about is how when you have a lot when you have a big money when you talk to guys who are running hedge funds or big trading companies big macro funds is that the conviction rate is infinitely more important than like the the short-term return meaning a sure thing that gets 2% is often much more attractive to a someone in a hedge fund than a pretty good bet that could produce you know three and a half times the return and you know apples to apples and the reason why is because of leverage and so what I mean by that and this this kind of dawned on me when I was reading that book called the perfect trade by Alex garbage and so you can go to coin master comma forged sliced or you can check this book out he writes a lot about this because he runs a hedge fund that makes a lot of money on bonds and trading swaps which are kind of interest rates those are very very small margins with very very small returns relatively speaking like I would look at a bond and I would say why would you ever buy bonds it's gonna go up one two percent I don't want one and a half percent I mean it's like a it's not a good investment I mean I should say in the last ten years bonds have actually done or did well in like early part of the century or you know 2000s and everything else but overall it doesn't even compare to stocks when I look at thinking about it like a retail stock investor but when you read that book and when you talk to some of these guys they think about it as like well if I put 20x leverage on my money that 2% now becomes a 40% return on the initial equity of the money now this this assumes you're not borrowing money or at least the money you're borrowing you can the interest rate doesn't eat in that big to their terms but even if you're borrowing it like 3% you're still making huge returns on the leveraged money you see what I'm saying and so the math can can get a little wonky on that but I think that this type of thinking is something that a lot of people miss when they're looking at how this big money comes into something like Bitcoin even with an ETF or an index fund or whatever conviction rate at a lower percentage is often much more attractive than a much higher ROI at a lower conviction rate right it's not just about the probability of making money is better on the second right like Matt the probability theory would tell you number number two asset B every all day every day but when you have the exposure to when you have the ability to leverage large amounts of money when you have the ability to move large amounts of money you can turn your money into big returns with a higher conviction rate but it's higher risk right we especially when using that kind of leverage but you can know you get that deep pools of liquidity and all that sort of thing so you know if that's confusing I would encourage you to look into you know first of all leverage trading is risky I'm not recommending anyone do that especially if you're just getting started and you don't have a big pool of money to work with but as you get into the next level of investing of like kind of institutional level investing that is a huge part of how you construct your portfolio and return yields that's one thing I think that other thing I've learned is that it's not the hedge fund like you know the whole thing about index funds beat hedge funds and all that that's actually not true at all the difference though is that hedge funds have way bigger costs right because they're buying and selling stuff all the time I know all the time but they're they're absorbing huge tax implications here and there so they may get 40% return but they're they're getting smoked on fees and commissions and carries and taxes and all that whereas the way ETFs and index funds are you know constructed it's it's a much slower cost and so you can save 15 20 percent on that and so the overall return of an index fund so for the average person and index funds oh wait 99% of time it's gonna be a better bet but from a gross raw standpoint you know the hedge fund can actually win more often than not especially as we get into a more tumultuous time like this so I just want to bring this up because I think it's an interesting concept it's the kind of thing that thinking like a thinking like you have a hundred million dollars is how you're going to be able to predict the next big moves in Bitcoin right yes I think having 50 million new coin customers is an enormous piece of the puzzle probably the biggest piece of the puzzle on price standpoint but when we talk about the market the institution of it you need to think about how do people with hundred two hundred three hundred million dollars how do they think about money how do they think about investing portfolios not just about poor fiddle portfolio construction but like actual execution of the trades how do they move money how do they turn money into large amounts of money or how did they sustain great returns over a long period of time it's a lot more complex than some may think than picking the right stock or the right bond or whatever and moving things around accordingly so it's something I'm learning if you oh if you ever want to learn about that check out real vision this is not a sponsor thing I'm not getting promoted it all paid I think I legit really enjoy the service real vision com go check them out they have a youtube channel too it's all free the paid one is like two hundred dollars a year if you're interested in how this stuff works I think you'll find that it's a it's a very I don't nobody call it like informational and helpful service okay so I'll link all this stuff up but I figured just do a weekly video I'm gonna be on the road for the next however long but I will try to get out there and get back to you guys I'll be on Twitter but um yeah I just hope you guys have a great day you know rock and roll last night I went to a great fish show it was awesome great Carini for anybody who listens to fish great times alright guys have a great day I will talk to you soon peace out

47 thoughts on “Bitcoin Rallies On…? ETF, Marketing, Levels to Watch, US Dollar, Big Money Psychology – Ep219”

  1. Another great video. Ive spotted a proffectional investor on a chart and decided to give him a try, invested $3200 and got a roughly extimate of $18100 in 11 days,well I'm getting to the top.

  2. Gulden (NLG) Pow2 network :

    PoW² advances our blockchain to a new era, bringing levels of security vastly in excess of anything seen before, the power of Proof of Work enhanced with the power of currency holding witnesses. Finally a blockchain that is not just "mostly safe" but is completely out of practical reach of attack by even the most wealthy and determined attacker.

  3. Carter, your title of 'Crypto Godfather' that i personally dubbed you several months ago has been revoked my man.. please reclaim your title, or it will be given to DataDash.

  4. Hey man the crypto space is missing you! Hope everything is going well … Don't hide during the bear market! Work on the fundamentals, even 5 minute updates every few days even if you are just reiterating things people already know.

  5. HI, @carterthomas! Just starting to watch your channel. Should I go
    through all videos or do you suggest some point in time where I should
    start watching? Any videos particularly important for beginners?

  6. Lol, go ahead and hit the road, aka another vacation. Must ne nice. Lambo's and hoes, that's the life, rock on Carter martyr, leading a hard life there huh?

  7. This dude is a scam he buys his views and subscribers I have proof. Don't listen to a so-called talking head, do your own research, this is the same people that came to this ecosystem to rip other people off. Stay away from his call and recommendations, he likes to pretend that he doesn't make any calls but will subliminally hint on where he will be investing​ after he has filled his bags. Then he will dumb and leave you holding worthless shitcoins! Take note don't be a victim, people like him see the world as a zero-sum game in order for them to win, you have to lose. Very Sad!​

  8. I hope this doesnt sound to rude but you get sick or lose voice way to easy my friend, and I am sure being/eating in the States have a big impact on your health.

  9. We love you, Carter.
    2X crew member reporting for macro nutrient duty.
    Shout out to my buy high – sell low brethren.

  10. Weekly videos are not cutting it man – we need our daily fix!! Some of the smartest crypto content out there on youtube, dont leave us hanging like some HBO show.

  11. so it's been a while since i watched any of these tutorials but i thought i'd come check em out and as always they're showing strategies that keep failing… my advice for people is to meet a professional to assist you, ever since i met Mr. Kelvin i've been able to invest fully in binary trades, if you don't know any Pro then contact Mr. Kelvin at [email protected] com

  12. Even without leverage trading, banking a 1% on a basically guaranteed move is just always the most savvy play in my mind. Why take needless risks? Ever?

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