Bitcoin Price to Double, Halve or Calm Down in 2019?


In this video we’re gonna catch up with
what’s been happening with Bitcoin and the outlook for 2019. Hello, I’m David
Jones from capital.com and as we haven’t done a Bitcoin video for a while,
I thought it might be time to catch up with the recent movements and the recent
news of what’s been happening with the cryptocurrency. There’s been very little
volatility in recent months. We’ll take a look at the numbers and the charts in a
minute and the outlook for this year. We’ve not really had much in the way of
major news, you know. We’ve had news that various exchange-traded funds’ bids to make it
easier to invest in Bitcoin have been refused by the SEC, the U.S.
regulator. And maybe there’s somewhat peculiar news over recent days that the founder of a crypto exchange in Canada has unfortunately died and nobody
actually knows what the passkey for the exchange is and it’s ended up with about a
hundred and forty million dollars being locked up in this exchange and can’t be
accessed. Stories like that clearly do not help the credibility and the hope
that crypto currencies go mainstream. So there’s been no real, you
know, earth-shattering news for Bitcoin in recent months. I think that’s maybe
why it’s being just stuck in this range. But let’s catch up, let’s catch up
with the medium term, the recent history for Bitcoin, then take a look at
the charts to see what’s been going on. Look at some big levels and see what we
can figure out, what could happen for the rest of 2019. Let’s have a look at some
of the headline numbers for Bitcoin. So the high was reached, seems a long
time ago now, but 17th of December, 2017, when it got to $19,700 The recent low, almost a year later, just at
the end of this, of 2018, we saw the price trade as low as 3,100, so the performance
numbers the last twelve months to the end of January 2019, the price is down 66
percent. The last six months it’s down 55% and just in the last three
months the price is down 46%. So over those time frames there has been no
signs of any strength coming into Bitcoin. Let’s take a look at the charts. So here in the last couple of years for Bitcoin, let’s just remind ourselves of
the major phases that the boom and corresponding bust. So it was in the last
few months of 2017 when the mania really gripped and we saw it trading
from around about what, $3000 in September. These are daily candles that we’re looking at and you can see it rarely had
days when it went down. It wouldn’t last long, there was plenty of buying into the
dips and then we have the push up into mid-December where we set those all-time
highs. Of course since then sentiment changed. It’s really in the first two to
three months of 2018, when we really saw it under pressure and it did seem to find some
sort of stability ahead of $6,000. That was the low, pretty much hit in early
February 2018. And this whole 5800-6,000 level did a good job for about eight
months. After that.. after those February lows.. but again in November we can see
right at the edge here, it starts breaking lower. So this break of a big
support sparked off another sell-off in Bitcoin towards the end of 2018 and
bringing us right up to date, this is where we are now at the time of
recording. So into 2019 the market has been fairly flat, trading around 3400. Let’s
just zoom into what’s been going on recently. So in the last couple of months
we’ve seen the volatility just dry up, okay. Compared to other markets, it’s
still pretty volatile. We saw a move from these December lows at 3,100 up above
4000, so a 30 percent move in a little over a week, a week and a half. So it’s
still a volatile market when you compare it to more established markets. But by
Bitcoin’s historical values, we’re really not seeing that much movement week to
week. So we’re trapped pretty much in this.. in this wide sideways range. Whenever we see the market push up towards above 4,000, towards 4,500, the sellers come back in But there’s still an appetite to be a
buyer on weakness towards the 3000 mark So at the moment it’s just trapped and
there’s no signs really of this changing These lows are important if we go back
to September 2017, so we can see on the way up in September it did drop down
very briefly towards 3000. The buyers came back out and lifted the
market up and for now I think this is a level to watch on Bitcoin. People
have got used to 3,000 being the floor If we saw a break below there, I think
the risk is for another sell-off again, you know. Maybe targeting the lows
from earlier in 2017 and until we get above 4,500 then the
range still stands So since those highs in December of 2017,
the all-time high just shy of $20,000, the slide has been pretty relentless.
It’s down over 12 months, down over 6 months, down over 3 months. We have seen,
as when we’re looking at the charts, there’s some stability ahead of the 3,000
dollar mark for Bitcoin in recent months At the moment you know if we say, well,
is it gonna half or is it gonna double in 2019, I’d be tempted to say what, well,
neither of those, you know. Chances are that for now we’re just gonna be bumping
along in this sideways range until I think, if we got a break of $3,000, that
important support over recent weeks and also from September of 2017, it could
provoke more selling as people throw in the towel, you know. Or if we see news
where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies go more mainstream,
maybe that will put some excitement back into the price. But there’s also the
argument, maybe $3,000-3,500 is the fair value for Bitcoin. We had the bubble last year. We’ve had the crash and
maybe about $3,500 is where it’s gonna be and
there’s no rule out there that says it needs to be more volatile and move
around. So, so far at least, I think we’re expecting more of the same in the months
ahead for Bitcoin. We know the levels to watch and if things get a bit more
exciting we’ll come back and look at it in a bit more detail. We’ll start wrapping things up there. As usual, if you’ve got a different opinion,
if you think Bitcoin is going to, I think, a million is the most ambitious forecast
I saw today when I was having a look online. So there’s somebody saying that
eventually it’s gonna get to it. Then other people are saying it’s going
to go to zero. Whatever your view, it’d be interesting to have a conversation in
the comments down there. If you liked the video click on the thumbs up and don’t
forget we put a whole load of content on our YouTube channel – looking at more
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updated every time we upload new content. But for this update and look ahead
for Bitcoin, we’ll wrap things up there So from me, David Jones, and capital com
good luck with your trading!

3 thoughts on “Bitcoin Price to Double, Halve or Calm Down in 2019?”

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