Bitcoin HELL?! Long Term Analysis – January 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis



welcome back to you crowds kept okay just waking up for this nice early Sunday morning hope everyone's having the best Sunday morning out there possible it's another bad hair day for me but you know what as always wish you the best of the best the happiest of the happiest go pray to go Jesus because it is Sunday and let's get on over here to the live scene as Bitcoin has done absolutely nothing in the last 24 hours since we last spoke so we're gonna be talking about a higher time frame longer term time frame ideas during this during this video as it is a Sunday but first things first we'll start with the lower timeframes going over here two good old bit Mexico and going on to our lower timeframes we actually have technically broken this bear flag to the downside right over here but this is not necessarily the reaction that I'm looking for this sort of slow graze at this resistance never the best sign sorry I'd support you know never the best sign when it comes to when it comes to talk about Bart's and good old Bart Simpson's I don't think that there's like a really really accurate way of getting them but this does feel like potential territory especially when you spend too much time just hanging out after what could have been you know a little bit of a breakdown so looking at this area right over here technically speaking as long as you're living below this guy 36 29:36 thirtyish area well I suppose it is a breakdown you do still have this port down around here right around 35 69 I think or at least hopefully I made that clear yesterday that's a big one – hold up around if you are playing this bear flag right over here fair enough that technically has broken but again I'd put much more importance on this 3569 guy right over here if you do break this 3569 then there is a measure move off this bear flower to be making and we've already done that because well it's coming down around here right around 3450 area some nice horizontal air uh trendline it's kind of meeting up with that guy and overall that would be in line with the measured move off this metro trongo that we've been looking at right over here pointing all the way down to this 3,300 ish area so again all higher time frames are bearish all higher time frame also does are actually switching around as well though so fair enough we are getting you know quite a quite a flighty response but lower time frames right over here hourly Stokes will be headed back down it looks like hourly DMI dmx DMI ATX whatever-the-fuck giving you a sell signal actually right now although also giving you a little divergents but by the same token again this is this is clear weekend I think the a really good example of it and essentially you know you you know you might move away you might move either which way but the range doesn't get broken the range again being this 3569 area and then this guy right over here thirty six seventy five which actually hasn't been really tested even on those upthrust the last the the last day jewel completely neutral right over here not telling you anything and that's exactly what it should be telling you right now this is consolidation that not really I mean it's it technically it's a bearish consolidation but as you know with pattern traders yeah when it's too obvious usually the opposite happens to our right over here to our to our Stokes actually headed up right now we're right in the neutral zone and still below all major moving averages in fact that you are has been getting it really really good because really really good I think really really well is the proper English word but as long as we're living below this twenty one exponential moving average right over here I would play the to date are signed not the two day but the two hour dildo death cross right over here the green fifty five and then purple 200 crossing to the downside and you can see that price action is really having a lot of problems around here now I am actually flat right now because it is a weekend and you know I made that trade yesterday or started on Friday closed at yesterday and then ever since then I just don't you know I don't really see the need to have a position on because very rarely do things actually even happen so I just want to be I just want to be transparent with that with with what how I'm kind of handling that but later tonight I will probably take that off or make an amendment to it if we are still down around here but anyways to our giving you I think this is the one to be playing right over here three hour as well a fresh death cross and these were the last two time frames that needed to be death cross before every higher time frame above and hourly as death cross of course the the lower timeframes they might float around all that I mean like it doesn't really mean much if you get a one-minute death cross right but but anything above an hourly does seem to get played and in more importantly over here on the three hour hour Stokes have just crossed down and this has had some pretty nasty implications in the past getting rejected from getting out of the bearish control zone so to me that is you know another thing pointed in the bearish in the bearish way but uh but then you know you look over here on your ATX and your ATX is still you know coming down so to me it's it's it's I feel like we're gonna have to put in some time in this area for our right over here for hours interesting just because you know again we spoke about this yesterday but it by by doing this by having this massive dump or what kind of as a massive dump a couple days ago three days ago whatever might be you tell it told you something by not telling you something and essentially averting what would have been the Golden Cross right over here and then essentially rejecting a Golden Cross which essentially just means that we are confirming that we really want to be death crossed with the green fifty-five and the purple 200 just kissing right there that is a very clear signal because it tells you that the bolts and the algorithms are on the sell side of this and not wanting and like letting it get really really close getting everyone all excited lubed up ready for the deal and then you know get get the red dildos Darth Maul shown his face anyways um you know just to give you an idea of what a for our for our dildo Golden Cross has given in the past the last example that we actually even have a one is right over here and that was a nice 10 percent move to the upside and then again over here which was like a thirty percent move the upside and I think you know it's it has some pretty good implications so it does get played in crypto land after that we have not gone we have not gotten it it's gotten close in fact there was a point over here where we kind of had the same sort of thing where it kissed and then boom reject and down and that's typically a pretty damn good signal and then over here oh man actually over here by the way it it's really difficult to see this BS right here kissed this is 6400 this was around the time when actually started taking my position before the 6300 short on this guy right over here and you reject it so same sort of idea essentially same sort of idea now it's been a lot of time going sideways after that and just sort of drooped and drooped and drooped and then drooped a little bit too much and broke that 6,000 support and now we're all the way down around here in the in the mid 3000 so again by by doing that it has actually kind of told us something and revealed the hand of the bigger accounts the market movers that be you know and you'll see that sort of stuff go down they'll like try to get people on the wrong side of the trade try to jump the gun because everyone gets excited about that sort of thing or the people who are watching it get excited about it and then other less Finn's less sophisticated BOTS will actually take that trade before you know before it actually gets fully confirmed and then you can really get you know a lot of people which is great from a from a market mover perspective you know generating liquidity for yourself you're gonna have all these buyers to fill all your cells all the way down over here as everyone's trying to play mr. Quasimodo inverted head and shoulders so again looking at this guy right over here let's our sorry let's go to a fresh chart and let's just chart this let's just draw this one out so again 35 we could do like thirty five eighty on a 4-hour dildo chart that would be your support and then your more preliminary resistance would be right over here I would say right around 36 69 right over here so nice a little bit less than a hundred dollar range as long as we're within this range nothing really different has happened but this does look very droopy does look what I mean it for all intensive purposes as does little boy wants to break down but we will be having like our mid timeframe oscillator is like our eight hour for our 10 hour starting to actually snake around this one actually did just cross down again but anytime you're in the more critical zone it does you know it can stay down there for sure and it will stay down there during during training moves but overall when we're talking about the jewel this thing typically doesn't stay down here for too long or doesn't stay too high for too long either so I would be at the very least I want to see that oscillator kind of snap back and give it a little bit of breathing room doesn't mean that price section can't go down though it actually can while that while that happens and that's the that's the secret sauce of the jewel but over here you can see that the ten simple on the eight I was getting very very dangerously close to price action which is not good that's not healthy especially when when you're just getting a fresh cross like this and I think even better seen on perhaps a twelve hour yeah the twelve hour I got that got that twenty-one and fifty five exponential moving average cross right over here a very nasty cross indeed and with the ten simple getting below all those I would imagine the next test and the ten simple is probably be a massive or just phenomenal short if it even does get there but printing all of these of these kind of long book Dilla's over here not necessarily the best sign but uh but again you know spending too much time around here is you know it's it's just kind of filling this out and really in really really really really really solidifying the fact that this is all corrective price action look at this this very orderly drop up in volume going from left to right this is how you knew that you know you didn't have a bullish reversal pattern or anything like that and over here this was not I mean not in any way shape or form it and inverted head and shoulders right I mean we've been talking about that for ages but it's always fun to kind of you know wag the finger and say okay come on come on crypto Twitter this is silly this is getting silly but hey you know someone needs someone needs to buy your shorts right and that's that's it's it's an unfortunate reality of the game but not a zero-sum game so I I did because I do have a little blurb about that probably knowing I'm having like a conversation that doesn't even exist but hey for the people who say that trading is a zero-sum game it's actually not it's actually not especially when you incorporate or it's are really only when you incorporate derivative products which it is in no way shape or form a zero-sum game actually anyways twelve hour chart over here kind of telling this story overall so this is the one that be going off of you got the 89 giving you the ultimate rejection at 4000 and then also not only that that was our overall resistance going back all the way from over here which does seem to be our governing factor for this consolidation now remember that we did break this symmetrical triangle to the downside so this would be the more bearish of the scenarios and essentially that we do have a measure move pointing all the way back down to our former lows essentially at around 30 to 50 to 3300 right over here and I support ledge from here actually so it's beautifully matches up with that the question is do you get a pullback like the legitimate pullback before this guy gets hit actually typically no you don't actually typically no you do not and this was a good pattern to be playing again we spoke about this very orderly drop up in volume right over here then once you know once a red dildos party begins then you get some nice higher volume dildos ours higher volume nodes down around here and and essentially that is tell me that this is legitimate pattern that's why I love triangles they seem to actually play out especially in cryptic currents land channels as well are decent not but not as good but we actually funnily enough we actually did have a channel right over here there was not only just a symmetrical triangle but uh but a rising channel which typically is a barely resolved and yeah it both these actually do have the same sort of what's it called a measure move as well so they'd both be pointing down around here but anyways you know let's just kind of negate or sorry let's just talk about the lower timeframes before we move on and essentially that's you know when you look at this guy right over here this is you know this is kind of a bear flag that we're looking at right now if this does breakout to the downside where does this leave us around well we're at around here right around 30 34 50 ish area so that would be the more that would be the more immediate resolution if this guy if this guy breaks down which which does actually look like it wants to it looks pretty weak right here but uh but hey if things did break back above here of course there's always two ways but as long as as long as bitcoin is below this 36 69 resistance I mean I'd be definitely leaning to the downside but if it does break back above there where is the next resistance to be aware of well I'd say about right around here right around 30 38 29 now you will notice that there isn't that there's a level around 37 50 as well I would agree with that but this is the next level that I would actually like change things right because look at this when we actually do a bullish Fibonacci retracement on this going from basically this this last like up leg we are resting on the sixth one eight right now and a lot of times you know bonds and algorithms will buy this just by the nature of their programming that was kind of the reason for the balance over here you buy the six one eight then you saw the two three six beautifully done now what a lot of the time will happen doesn't mean it's gonna happen but a lot of time what will happen is now you'll buy the six one eight and then sell the three eight two but gotta get through this point five first right and that's where that's essentially where our next resistance is in fact if I just adjust this a little bit you know it'd be it'd be right around there and it actually does me match up with some nice Exponential's on I believe this is the for our yeah so I would like that for good confluent so perhaps I'd actually more appropriately go with this area at 3700 even or three six ninety two we'll call it so again you know though those are kind of the way forwards that I see and this just offers up a lot of different trade opportunities again no trade is like a 100% thing it's it's about risk and reward it's cool setup so you know if Bitcoin did pop back around here first I'd actually sell this and then if it takes it out then I'm gonna buy back take you know take like this header or I lost whatever it is try another trade right over here 3850 same sort of thing if it breaks above there probably something difference going on but you'd still have this ascending trend line right over here which is governing our lower highs again lower highs nothing's changed and loss over a year now so you know just more more and more and more of that just like my hair it doesn't change just gets worse so again you know when looking at this guy I would be look you know that's gonna come into play as as long as Bitcoin kind of you know stuck in the mud in this range which I do actually think it's quite likely because while this measure move does point all the way down to 30 to 50 which actually does match up with our weekly 200 simple moving average right over here if I can put it on what to put her on and see what she says does she coming right or right in around 30 to 50 oh my god she does it's like magic sometimes technical analysis is actually right sometimes it actually works and it does have a good confluence and yeah there's gonna be one of those times anyways looking at this guy right over here you know I I want to make a relation between this this mass of 200 simple moving average witches but did buoy this up on the first pass and also that support trendline that we just were looking at at that lower area as well as the measure movie and confluence with this area as well and also it's gonna be the eight eight six Fibonacci retracement down around here so a lot of things come into play around this area Bitcoin if and when Bitcoin does get down to 32 50 I would certainly be closing shorts I do not want to have the directional trade on looking for the next leg down and yes I do believe that Bitcoin is very very strongly moves lower than this 3,200 or sorry 31 50 low right now but I think is gonna take a lot of time and I think you're gonna likely hit something similar to what you got at 6,000 where you essentially make well what is this over here at a sending triangle if you just you know extend this guy out so you know it you know could be like something like this you bounce off there you know make another run further than boom boom boom something like that you know again you can't you can't tell price action what its gonna do but we but we know that Bitcoin likes it's descending triangles and it actually plays them out but uh it's it's very it's it's a very good psychological pattern for getting everyone on the wrong side at the wrong time because everyone gets super bullish like you know everyone gets super bullish anyways but uh but but on the lows right here more importantly you get you get a lot of you get you got a lot of people turning bearish and then you know posting the oh guys we're going to 2900 like tomorrow it's like no probably not probably not I mean I think it does happen but it's it's not gonna be tomorrow but uh but yes so looking at this guy right over here you know you know it's just it's just it's just a little quiddity game when you have to be thinking in the minds of the big market movers and some ones who someone who's dealing with like you know half a billion billion plus you know that those sorts of numbers they can't just enter in it market it doesn't it doesn't you know it doesn't work like that you're gonna move the markets too much you're gonna scare people you're gonna like quite literally destroy things so you have to like create these herbs and flows that get everyone you know on the wrong emotional side of these patterns because well that's the one thing that you can really count on is that people you know are almost in a very ignorant way in a very less sophisticated way not aware of their emotions which this sounds very arrogant and myself to say because it's it's implying that that that I'm not not in that group I am in that group I do have emotions but over the years over plenty of times of getting my own fee per and I've learned to to understand my emotions and then say ok I'm actually feeling this right now so that's actually a good counter indicator to my own self and I don't really think that you can ever really get rid of emotions again like maybe if you're some sort of a alien or Martian from a planet Down Under or if you're a monk in Tibet who doesn't probably doesn't care about magic and money but hey it stuff like that is you know it's a good marker anyways until 30 to 50 actually breaks on like a daily Dillo time for him I do not want to be talking about lowered lower targets although this is a long term this is a long term analysis video so we'll talk about them right now actually if 3250 breaks which I do believe is very very likely that's actually sorry let's actually talk about first things first what am I looking for for the Fulda before the bull market to be over I want to see three things three three things that are very easy to gauge what first things first daily I want to see a daily dull uptrend that'd be great you haven't done that in over overeaten it's not you but Bitcoin has not done that in over a year so that would be good start but that's not gonna get you finished in fact that's not even yet you most the way there the next one is quite important though the weekly over here at the weekly to on an exponential moving average as long as bitcoin is is is below there I am very bearish and as you can see this has been our governing factor going going you know for the past what is it a couple months and as long as but if bitcoin could both open and close a weekly bill above there I would immediately change my tune and I probably even look for a little bit of a long position like a small one and then the third and final but you're probably gonna know beforehand is Bitcoin gets back above the 6,000 area right over here that's the area of consolidation for over a year so that kind of denotes your prior phase if you can get back about that phase well you know that just kind of negates it and it's it I would have no reason to be bearish at that point in time but for now you can see that all three of those things are far and far away so I'm gonna be bearish just them anyways this area right over here looks extremely similar to this area right over here again market cycles they're not identical they are like they're like brotherly they they are they are brotherly but not identical so when looking at this it's not right to say and this is what I hate about the fractal because they they they make it sound like you can just look at this area over here and look at this area over here and they should act exactly the same no there is variance there is difference in the market but the overall feeling the and the bigger levels and the way that especially that that we relate to the to the higher level moving averages that can be taken into account because basically we're just figuring out what their you know what their algorithm what their bots are doing is that that's what all the market movers do to begin with I mean most people use that people act like BOTS and algorithms are bad it's like no everyone uses one it's just you are unaware of this fact anyways but we do have a very we do have this very similar sort of step right over here so you have your consolidation right over here you have a consolidation before the ultimate doom drop from about fifty two and a half percent well we have our ultimate consolidation right over here before the before the nice doom drop of what is this Oh fifty two and a half percent not bad interesting how does that work out anyways then bitcoin sorry once once you hit that doom drop you bounce up about what whoops I got that one wrong about 20 to 22 percent over here from dildo body digital to to dildo body which is some more accurate way to be doing it and then if we do the same thing right over here what's this well we're up about 22% off the lows right now that's interesting as well look at the volume here just as well I want to relate the volume from the drop over here to to this guy right over here your parabolic cycle that is very similar and and just like this guy right over here in relation to your parabolic cycle right over here everyone thinks that this is a low everyone thought that this was the low because it's high volume and that's that's what capitulation means like no that's not even that's not even the bottom of your of your actual down just yet that's that's like a couple of dildos beforehand and then Bitcoin just slump to lower as it just floated down to the 200 simple over here just really really weak actually it's so so yeah not only that but looking at a completely unique indicator over here the NBT signal which again is the network value divided by the daily transaction value and then interpolator you use before word back moving average just create a smooth line which again it's not really related to the indicators that we're looking at on price form and time on the charts this is telling you something as well it's telling you that well it's basically tells you all the market tops and all the market bottoms in bitcoins market cycle history perfectly you'll notice over here in 2014 you know you put in your top where it's above where micros currently is now you know you come back down over here you don't quite get into the into the into the bottoming zone which is where micros currently is now then it pops back up back under the critical zone puts in your bull trap right over here and then he slumped down over here and straddled this dotted 100 line right over here look at where that is that is exactly this area right over here okay great now let's go over here Bitcoin comes up for the bull trap right over here above you know above this 150 mark then comes down and where are we now we are straddling this dotted trendline over here so again these things are completely divorced from each other but they are green with each other so I really like that this for good confluence not only that but this is also suggesting that the low is not in which you know again this we can get into that discussion in a second as well but any to you know once once Bitcoin does put in a major market cycle top it typically comes down to where my curse currently is now or a little bit lower and that's where the bottom is this this is where major market bottoms are put in this is where major market tops are put in so again Bitcoin bean quite literally right smack dab in the middle necessarily the best sign for it the low beam it again I think we've been talking about this for a while as far as capitulation goes I'm looking for I'm looking for like three or four four other things that are that important as well I'll try to breeze through them but again volume needs to be similar to what you'd in your parabolic cycle that's why on your actual capitulation low right over here it's very similar to this guy right over here but again it doesn't need to show up like that actually it really doesn't and this is a big misnomer because people will say crown everyone knows the market recycle sheet now so you can't happen it's like actually that's kind of right in a way that is kind of riding away capitulation does not need to happen in this more violent sense over here it just needs to cause the emotion and the in the feeling that that aligns with pitch with the capitulation phase which is a loss of hope hopelessness desperation that sort of thing and where does that come in around well that comes in around when people are quite literally forced to capitulate for financial reasons so so the Hodler is the hollers of this market are the ones who essentially keep it propped up which is good for your bull runs but in your but in your bear markets the purpose of this phase is to shake those people out all the geniuses who bought Bitcoin you know years and years ago and they made know sort of immense or Mait you know maybe they made some mistakes over the year maybe they didn't have any sort of external income or anything like that and they were completely reliant on Bitcoin thinking that could never go down again well those are the people who are who are vulnerable to getting shaken out now because at some point in time and yes the very sophisticated algorithms can figure this out they will feel enough financial pressure to capitulate how can that happen what can happen one by a very nasty and very violent drop all the way down like this that's the more violent way then but remember it's an emotional feeling so what else how else can you get that well a Bitcoin were to just go sideways for the next like 5-10 years that would do it as well that would definitely do it so or I would assume that I'd probably do it so again some people some people did not like that statement that I made yesterday but it's the truth it's it's is it's at least what I've experienced myself I've seen it and it's one of those things that you know I'm not I don't say this with like a smile on my face although it can be when you get really obnoxious people are just in some ways rude it can be it can't be a little bit status money if I'm being completely honest however you know again I don't make I don't make money off that so I don't really care but uh but but overall you know it's one of those things like I would much rather have this thing be bullish cuz my life becomes a much easier and then people are just happier because I think people like just people that I don't know people just want to huddle and that's you know again perspective maybe for some people that's right I understand for some people you might have a completely a different job and that's the right thing to do because you don't want to spend time trading this in being a complete moron like me who spends 12 hours a day 14 hours a day on his computer screen so yeah there you go you know and I understand it's a different perspective anyways so the volume is not right also the percentage bounce off this area's not right as well this percentage as the percentage bounce off this off the support so far it's just a reactionary balance in the way that I look at it just like you saw over here when you get actual capitulation you're looking for a massive massive massive bounce I mean over here in 2014 it was about you know 69% you even had it you even had a good example over here in on that on that massive drop down to 6,000 which you know in about a week you up what was it like 44 50 percent or something like that she's I can't even get it right but it was about 50 percent right over there if we go down to lower timeframes you can even see that most this was done in the span of you know less than a day actually if we go all the way over here to February 6 which again is is actually a good example of capitulation by the way on the amet signal you will see that we did actually get down to this point sorry to this five region over here where markets do put in major lows but again going back on over here is this a yeah yeah this is it right over here so these are to our dildos so each and every dildo represents two hours worth of price action within two hours you up 10% within you know a day you up about 40% that's totally about almost double than the balance then other than the bounce off of 31 and 50 over here done over four weeks so again it's a completely different you know feeling of that now of course we could go we go over to 2014 as well but well let's just do it why not I'm already here at the by the time I explain this I'm I could have already scrolled all the way back just wait just just having an argument in my own head it's like it's it's like mental torture mental masturbation that mental torture it's like it's BDSM with my own mind it's beautiful ma'am it's beautiful anyways let's we're almost over here okay 2015 I believe it's like January February of 2015 something like this is it this area no it's not that area we're almost there though yeah it's right over nope nope this is not it either this is it here we go okay so this is what capitulation can also look like as well each and every one of these dildos represents four hours of price action probably just a crown what the man you returned within within a few percentage points of of your low over here nope you didn't you it was about seven-and-a-half percent up from your lows what was this last little bit down around here anyways within about a day right within about a day you're up almost 50 percent within within a week from from this wick to this wick over here a hundred percent so again it doesn't need to be the exact sort of same numbers but it needs to be similar he's have that same sort of similar feeling and this is gonna be different on different trading assets but it you get the same sort of you know work around with it so this is why I always say you know market cycles these sorts of things are pretty consistent with the generalities of them across different trading assets so whether it's magic and money whether it's forex whether it's commodities or whether it's where I come from and in equity options you notice these sorts of similar patterns and they have these these rhyming characters with each other so this is bitcoins right here and that's essentially why I'm looking for those sorts of things so yeah so we talked about that we talked about the volume we talked about which we talked about the percentage up from there and then also the time spent at the lows you know the time spent at the lows again big markets do not give you multiple chance to buy the lows like especially over the course of days over here we spent four days at the low and as you saw when those one of those other bottoms we were being put in you spent about literally you know less than an hour really put in a low and then you don't really return to that return within like 10% of that area you know anytime soon or really ever again if it's gonna be like a true market cycle bottom but obviously the February 6th one was not so yeah that is also worth mentioning if we bring up another a very important thing um the guy this he's gonna he's gonna hate me for doing this I keep on getting this wrong but um let's see his Bali pours over here that's BA whoops can I do this right I don't don't think I have his other one readily available why can't I get my hmm see historical yeah it's not gonna work maybe I can do it like this historical volatility maybe um where's Bali pour over here yeah okay here it is nice okay great awesome okay so we can actually use the right one okay so I'm putting on on a daily sorry I need to go to a day let's go to the BLX Index and the other thing that I'm looking for for a major market bottom to be putting on it in on is the volatility to get extremely high so a lot of people confuse volatility with volume they're not the same thing volatility is basically like a measure of a standard deviation away from the mean returns of a price for a given amount of time which doesn't mean too much what did what essentially means is higher volatility insinuates that you are that you are that you are at an at a crazy inflection point and so there is a massive trade opportunity to be made and also and low low volatility kind of in like to extremely low volatility kind of the same thing for this for the for for the same reason but the opposite sort of you know indicator anyways when he put in market bottoms and market tops it's typically done on extremely high volatility this is this is ancient knowledge from from traditional markets and yes it does apply to cryptocurrencies now you can see over here after a very pure after a very low period of volatility over here telling you that you know big movies like to come in that was kind of that's kind of the only that's I mean you can't use it on these and that's that would be the way to do it but uh you know after that it breaks you know we break 6,000 over here and you get massive massive volatility being done on on this massive down over here but without context on this it doesn't mean too much right it got all the way up to not 0.68 and remember this is also it's between zero and one so one being the highest meaning the most potential opportunity and and zero being nothing but that else but I mean like when you're at zero is just likely to go higher right because it can't go lower anyways so let's put that into context right on the February 6 drop down right over here how high did this thing yet well you can already see it's pretty high it's it's around the 1 it's around the 1 mark so that was a major major market phase low which that was kind of the low for a while when we put it in the top of of 20,000 that was also a major high right over here when you put in this bottom over here major volatility being done when he put in this top over here major volatility been done when you put in this top over here major volatility be done on the bottom of 2014 you can see over here major volatility being done that's essentially what I'm looking for for for the bottom now high volatility does not or sorry like a volatility in the like in the 0.9 range or higher does not does not guarantee a market cycle bottom our mark cycle top but it does pretty much guarantee a local bottom or local table so I so so again credits my man Bali port for putting that indicator together it's very useful it's very helpful for overall market cycles in something that and something that I'm very grateful for anyways um let's get on over to our SK okay so so now we talked about why this is what I'm looking for to to not be so bearish anymore what I'm looking for for the ultimate low now let's talk about why now let's talk about where I think the next the the other low could be okay so again this this idea is not applicable just like you know to you know looking at this area over here and looking in saying that six thousands likely to break but not taking the trade until it actually you know gives you the signal well the signal for this one would be 30 to 50 break and if that happens then this next blue box territory brought over here me does become where I look towards right around the 23 to 23 hundred number to 2600 number right over here that's the 886 per notch retracement actually which is actually where he did bottom out in 20 and 2014 right over here it would also be some nice higher volume nodes on a volume profile as Demont as denoted by this guy right over here which is actually bigger than anything we've done in this past year just making sure that my mic is working good and as you can see some nice historical horizontal trend lines right over there and if we go over here to the BLX index then you will see on the weekly that the 377 exponential this blue line is actually coming in right around that range as well it has enough time to actually populate that so that is that is really really good that is a major major exponential and traditional markets which I'm curious to see if it actually does start to get play in in crypto land going on going on here now anyways not only that but we also do have remember this this potential descending triangle over here which I'm making some assumptions on but if this does play out as a descending triangle then you can make a measure move on this just like you don't in the last one and if you point that all the way down over here where at this point down around would this perhaps line up with something else that we've been looking at and oh my god yes 20300 right over here so again many many things pointing down around that region but that doesn't mean that that has to be the actual low in fact there's a couple of the regions that that I have my eyes on because again the way that I do technical analysis I'm never gonna say this area definitely gonna be the low you can't do that it's it's a game of basically when the big market mover wants to come in and put in a bottom who you know he's gonna have extremely deep pockets he's not gonna do it when everyone's looking at it so if you know I think probably a lot of people have their eyes on this area probably a lot of people have their eyes on the 1113 order as popularized by your favorite honey nippled analyst out there but uh but this 1850 eye jeez this 1850 area right over here at GC in the way so so looking at this guy I would be thinking to myself that actually kind of in a way does have duh does have a lot of things you know on its side so 1850 gonna be another area to chew through if that area fails and yes then I can jump on the train with the ultimate perma bears down around here around 1,100 1,300 so now we'll do something that you know again I am overall bullish on Bitcoin like long term but that's gonna you know it's gonna likely take a long time anyways we'll go through the matrix over here each and every one of these dotted trend lines represents a support trendline in bitcoins market cycle history so let's do a little bit of mental masturbation with each other this is these are the kind of things that I don't put too much weight on I definitely don't take trades off them I do not I I think they're fun to talk about that's that's about it but but there is some interesting here anyways they start a trend line over here in 2010-2011 mark cycle gets broken in 2012 that trend line now becomes your governing factor in 2013 and 2014 right over here then you create another sport trend line for that next parabolic market cycle right he right here gets broken in 2015 that becomes a governing factor in here 2017 2018 marks cycle right over here then we created another trend line for a parabolic mark cycle that we just played out right over here right over here that be we we have broken that now on that first dildo down breaking below 4,000 right over here well does that become our governing factor going forwards well could be could be could be you know if we do this and you know if you go all the way over here to like 2022 you know you could actually come up with like perhaps a range it's fun to do it's about a hundred thousand but then again you know for the range of the end of this year funnily enough or maybe not funnily enough for most people the high of this would be 13,000 and that that would be the high so it's not I mean remember whenever it hits kind of the top that's you know your liking topping range just like you were over here just like you were over here just like you were over here just like you were over here now I have played around with an idea that actually think does kind of make sense based off of some based off of some really historical massive pivot points of where I think the the bottom support could be which also lines up with one of those potential areas the 1850 area of potential bottoms that we just looked at and that would be this dotted trend line right over here so having that guy going going forwards you know maybe we could come up with support you know going going that way as well anyways you will notice that on this chart there are a couple of descending trend lines as well these these guys right over here this first one right over here and this first one right over here those are related to each other because they hold it in that first consolidation before the bull trap of that phase so you so it breaks out of this guy putting your bull trap right over here breaks out of this guy puts your bull trap right over here now you'll see on this first guy right over here it actually does come back down and tag this tag the support trendline after breaking out of it and find support on it once and twice and that's your ultimate low and that's kind of what we done over here we've we've found support once Dewey founds do we find support once again down around here well if we can we can actually come up with a date projection then because that this at the 2300 level that would suggest a date of around like like mid mid-february so at the 1850 level that would suggest a date around you know mid April and then you know if we went all the way down to 1100 1200 1300 that would suggest a date of actually June middle of June so again you know are there way forwards other ways to look at this certainly yeah so just wanted to point that out there how much weight do I put on it once again though not too much but but yeah I just I just want to speak a sec for a second about how you know this is likely to take a long time anyways going back to the lower timeframes over here on Bitcoin let's go check out CME see me is closed week at 36 25 I'm gonna guess that price action is probably enough float around here for a while you can see that the last took on CMI's was a massive rejection that rejection of I don't know it's like 3,700 on spot so so the next trade in my opinion I'll probably stay stay flat until this is is looking at where spot opens up in relation to you when CMI's open up later tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time which you know if spot is opening up below then probably gonna be a sell on the gap fill spot is opening up above then it's probably be a buy for a little bit of a bounce I'd be much more happy to be a seller just because with the overall trend and the trend is your friend until the end of the trend so again I'll be essentially waiting for that I don't I I think it's unlikely that you get a major move before that happens so it might be another like you know I don't know how many hours of waiting but but 6 p.m. later tonight we'll we'll be opening up so likely to get some action around that time depending upon how that you know how that kind of goes anyways gbtc over here as well putting in a nice a nice Bear Flag rising channel getting rejected from this $4 45 cent area this has been a great leading indicator for the past year give me a false breakout over here and again the difference between someone being an analyst and someone you know just reading investopedia or someone being an actual trader well you look at the bunkers and this is again still very corrective volume you're having this nice orderly drop-off in volume over here this was never a break out it was just a rejection and it was a failed breakout these are the perfect things to get the less educated people on the wrong side of the trade and then run it the other way quite quickly now you will know also notice though that there's a massive gap right around this four dollar sixty nine region right over here if GBC does pop back up that would probably put Bitcoin itself at like 3800 so so do be aware of that as that kind of is like a magnet for price action but the timing of when that every gap gets filled every gap every gap in the history gap has been filled but the timing of that is is a variable thing it could take months I mean in some cases I've seen like one's for years but they did get filled so yeah um let's go check out a theory mr. buter all over here mr. Budrow looking like a sick puppy as well basically basically putting it in descending triangle right on the support actually right over here may be best seen on like an hourly yeah yes I'm like this so support right over here at around one it's on an hourly it's gonna be right over here right around 126 and a half and resistance at 128 which everyone gets broken first probably have some implications this one has lead the led the market up and then also let the market down and I would imagine that whichever way that it does break this it'll probably be the first one to do it and probably be probably be the big signal at least for me so if it did if it did break out to the upside I think it's less likely but if it did you know your next big resistance would actually be right over here right over 130 132 133 ish area and then above there you'd have this guy and then if you did break 126 and a half well not too much holding you up from this next support trend line right over here at around 118 and a half and at that point I mean I think this thing comes all the way back down for the full retrace to be quite honest with you but that's my opinion that's not technical analysis to be quite clear as well you have a very beautiful Wyckoff top being put in here Wyckoff distribution just absolutely amazing you know and this was this was really the tell for when we were on stream at the 4000 level I was like I think I think I'll sell a little bit here I think a lot of people were thinking the probably the same thing a lot of people reached out to me then they took the same trade so phenomenally done well done on you and you know this was the canary in the coal mine so I would you know am at you know again it's it's got an event coming up so you get an events I called you event mentality with all the retailer's thinking that you know a scheduled upgrade changes changes the world and that no one else knows about except for them but of course this is public information so what's really likely to happen well you're probably get the same response that you get to most most events in general whether it's you know getting listed on new exchange or an announcement of announcement or just a regular announcement or if it's you know a conference call or earnings or or whatever whatever it might be in traditional markets or Trump getting on the phone which is which is absolutely hilarious perhaps for not probably not for some people though but overall you know those sorts of things have the same sort of reaction because again it's used by the bigger accounts to drive up and play with people's emotions thinking that you know it's a new paradigm baby and you can't go lower bro and then dump it on their face because now you have buyers again remember you have to think from the perspective of the people who actually move this market so yeah that's what I'd be looking at right over there pretty pretty bearish even if if a pop all the way back up to 144 and a half I'd still like to sell that area but again risk reward trades along there the whole way mister ripples over here mister ripples I like to cover but he hasn't really done anything different either he looks a lot bearish than everything else I would say three-day death cross still below the 21 exponential moving average pretty bearish not not too much holding up from the 28th time region right over here and I would be bearish as long as you're essentially below the 21 I play this to the downside to the to the dark side but anyways all up speaking of three-hour dildo charts right over here sorry three day dildo charts right over here we do have a very nasty em formation we just solidified this last three days old oh right over here so looking at this guy this is typically a bearish I mean that this is a bearish pattern ms4 murder and you actually can't make a much move off of it let's go to let's go to a fresh start over here and I'm gonna guess that it basically yeah it's gonna basically be the same one as as a thirty two hundred issue area so again you know a lot of things just kind of point in the same direction also on top of that are a three day stoked yeah three days Stokes are losing momentum over here two day Stokes are cross to Downing gaining momentum down so perhaps that does have follow-through in fact I'd say I'm not even hazard a hazard to say that it's likely to today DMI ATX giving you a full signal now that is above the that is almost at the 25 mark but above 24 so that's pretty good this is well the red dildo party I might be I might be preserving my ticket and then also not only that but you know we also we also saw this right you have your two days old of death cross right over here the green 55 purple just wanted right over there and ever since then as long as you know the the 21 exponential I'm just a great short as long as you're both opening and closing deals below there I'm very very bearish and I'm looking to short that area in fact that was also another great impetus for taking that trade at 4,000 right over here because this was a rejection of the 21 and then follow through to the downside not only that but there was hidden bearish divergence on the also too right over here making a higher high on the outsider lower price action in the context of an overall downtrend likely to have some more fall through as well so looking at this guy right now um you know I am bearish off this it's just a question of okay do we pop back up to do we pop back up before before I'd infer they're down I mean does it give you a second chance to just short you know 3,700 or 38 50 I think actually a little bit less likely the more and more that I look at this but again I wouldn't be taking any trades until you know seven or sorry 6:00 p.m. Eastern time tonight when CME's open so that's kind of what I'm looking at right now let's go look at the Long's and shorts were at all we have 30 almost 30 mm open Long's and a little bit above 23,000 open shorts 4.6 nine great number of those shorts are hedged so we really have about eighteen and a half thousand open shorts and that's very very bad because when you look at it right over here shorts you have to be aware of this that uh shorts from historical sense whenever you get down into the low twenty thousands areas it actually does match up with the major dumps this over here when shorts were at a low this was your January dump this was your February dump this was your dump of early August this was your break of 6,000 right over here and I know that we are a little bit higher right now but could it be that this is another big you know another big break well it's it's not another question that's for sure land longs by the same token Long's are at the level with a twith where they typically dump as well anytime that it gets above this trendline right here it does suggest that there's too many people on the bus and these actually do match up with massive dumps in bitcoins history so one over here another one over here another one over here another one this was I mean you know December and then another one another one perhaps right here in the making so again looking at these sorts of things they do matter they do matter a lot and I would be certainly bearish here it's a question of when when's the next trade so again just for full just for full disclosure I am pretty much neutral right now in my streamer account I bought bought this guy 36:23 yesterday so I'm just gonna be waiting and wait waiting for the real markets to start and I think I covered everything that I want to say let's go over traditional marks just really really quick traditional marks again looking like they're put in a little bit of a local top to me but I don't want to be again I it's the same thing as big when I'm bearish on these but it's not necessarily the right time just yet very not now see exponential moving average crossed over there I mean head and shoulders head and shoulders top you know measuring boob getting hit basically 1 to 1 so yeah and Stokes over here actually sneaking around quite a bit but I would go for the more traditional traditional sell or be more interested in shorting around the to 6 into cheese 61 area I'd feel like I've been so miss hurt on this one recently or maybe I'm just speaking out of my own mind but hey for those you know they know but yeah overall you know same thing it's a big one I think that it goes low over time but when does that time happen will I be looking you know it's I want to see 2:39 break before I get like positional directional bearish or and now take a short maybe at 262 261 if it gets there that would be the more traditional air just easy to manage position right there at the current you know in the lower timeframes yeah it does look like it probably is putting a local top right here you see this very orderly drop in volume as well down around here so you know a move is coming but I I wouldn't put in another run-up just like really punish those over aggressive shorts so yeah okay I think that covers just about everything I wanted to say about Bitcoin again going back to the lower timeframes right over here resistance right over here 3675 as long as you're below there I mean you haven't done anything different as long as you're above 35 69 right over here you haven't really done anything different to the downside although technically speaking this has kind of broken the bear fly I mean it has broken the bear flag right over here but it's a weekend thing this is where you get your Bart's this is where you get you know really annoying price action so I typically don't even trade during weekends just do analysis and kind of try to live my life anyways I'm gonna go eat a ton of food so look forward to see you guys soon hope everyone has a beautiful rest of your Sunday go pray to go Jesus or whatever Jesus that you prefer but go jesus loves you all other Jesus's hate you I'm just I'm just giving you the message don't hate me anyways anyway you guys soon take care

47 thoughts on “Bitcoin HELL?! Long Term Analysis – January 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis”

  1. โš ๏ธ ! Please be aware of scammers impersonating Krown ! โš ๏ธ
    The real Krown has no signals channel and will never ask you for money, or to trade your account.
    Comments with links, phone numbers or e-mail addresses are not to be trusted.
    ๐Ÿ‘‘ ! Please stay SAFU ! ๐Ÿ‘‘

  2. Krown- Looks like we got our drop as was suspected from your analysis and market sentiment overall. Do you think we can see support at $3,476.00 level or lower? The volume is so low. Does that mean most likely larger break to down side?

  3. Man u r the guy!! Congrats! I've been following u from Brazil trying to learn from u! Thanks for sharing ur deep knowledge!

  4. As usual great content Krown. Learning a lot here. Can you please briefly explain in your terms the use of SMAs vs. EMAs? I've already done some homework as far as what they are and how they're calculated, but I'm struggling a little bit understanding how for instance a trading bot might interpret this information. More specifically, in minute 14 of this video you talk about how you already knew that the SMA was giving you the support for this fall and I was thinking "why did you you choose that particular SMA? how do you get there?" Thanks for your time buddy, excellent work!

  5. This low volume played out for months prior to the break of 6k when BTC looked like a stable coin. I wonder how long itโ€™ll play out now.

  6. Always watching your videos on the morning with some good coffee, nice way to start the day, thanks for the content and patience with us the less technical informed & experienced.

  7. What moonboys dont umderstsnd is that even of they can reach moon there is nothing To do there and they will have To come back.

  8. jesus christ Krown. All other crypto youtubers should just pack their bags and leave. Your content is such outstanding quality in comparison. I've gained so much insight from you. Sincere thanks and I hope you keep this going – extremely generous to share such in-depth expertise.

  9. Krown – thanks for your time making this video. You can see some good information of the gradients of those EMAs on crosses too. You are only going to learn about yourself by making the odd screwup along the way

  10. We went in a bull run from 1k to 20k in 1 year, then we went in a bearish dump from 20k to 3k in 1 year. That makes +2k in 2 years which is 10% of the ATH, following this logic we can say in the next 2 years bitcoin price would be +4k which would be 10% of the upcoming all time high 40k, but taking the exponential growth of bitcoin into consideration I would increase the growth to +8k which would be 20% of the ATH. That would make a bottom at around 12k after the 40k ATH. Don't mention it ๐Ÿ˜‰

  11. When we look at your chart, we can see that when bitcoin was running up to 20k the candles were above the moving average lines but the market end up dumping below those lines. Now the candles are below those lines and you say it will keep going down because of that? Isn't illogical?

  12. So when the price goes up in a bear market it's a bull trap and when it's going down in a bull market it's a bear trap? But that won't work on the Top or the Bottom… and you know the top was a top only after several lower highs like you know the bottom was a bottom after several higher highs. Isn't it a paradox?

  13. Hey krown I think 6k was a bubble itself and will correct 70% or more … Drawn a fibo from the breakdown zone,that should be intresting

  14. 2 questions
    do u have a program where we can follow your trades in real time ?
    have u seen the hyperwave teori ? if u have .. what do u think about it ?

    great videos btw

  15. On the NVT chart the historical data has all transactions on chain compared to tops and bottoms but as lightening is adopted this signal is no longer valid as the transactions are not happening on chain.

  16. Great job with!Hey man, remove that shit microphone from your neck, it is a lot of alternatives, you look like a horse๐Ÿ˜€๐Ÿ˜€

  17. Thanks for all the time you give to make these videos . I'm trying to learn. I want to get my feet wet with Bitcoin. Hoping I can buy in small amounts as we drop. Wish I was psychic and could call the bottom. I've heard arguments for everything from 3250 down to below a thousand. I couldn't be a trader…I'm too emotional. Keep up the informative videos. Thanks!

  18. Quality content here. As a beginner, I've learned a lot from you Krown. Keep up the excellent work. Hope you prosperity my friend.

  19. Feels like it might want to Bart up for a bit before going lower. Spent a lot of time at that area already.
    Just my opinion. Don't trade opinions. But I've closed some shorts to take profits and limit risk.

  20. @Krown's its this a Wyckoff Accumulation on the down side???? and is a side of reversal if we go on 2.5k and bounce of that region??
    what's you oppinion?

  21. Seems correct play here for average Joe is stay at the side line for couple of months and get back when true capitulation is there. Sold a bunch of coins and thatโ€™s my play now. No point in feeling the pain of another drop and seeing your hard earned money melt like snow on a hot day. I wish I did not watch youtubers chatting this past year as it gives you a sense of false reassurance things will get better while true financial advisors and real financial people knowing what they are doing have been telling the truth all along and bitcoin is the worst investment ever for average Joe at the moment. Iโ€™m hoping for actual more regulations on YouTube content here as people stating not financial advise is not good enough… there should be a banner widespread all over the video stating this as well as promotional content should be clearly stated. Too much crap hiding as โ€œI know what I am doingโ€. There are a couple of youtubers that actually know what they are talking about and this is one of them ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป Hope things turn around so all average Joes get at least their money back during this hellish 2018๐Ÿคž๐Ÿป

  22. What's that indicator with Ema small. When I'm bring this up on bit ex it's just giving me the 2 not the full setup u have. Yeah I'm probably describing it wrong.

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