yo what's up guys how's everyone doing hope you're having a fantastic day I get asked so often what my intro is so there you go I've said it nice and slowly for you let's get into the analysis though I want to break down what's been happening with Bitcoin for you and really the picture hasn't changed too much but I think that we are getting a little bit more bearish now what I forgot to mention in yesterday's videos that we do have these CBOE futures contracts closing expiring today fairy xiii and usually that brings a little bit of volatility and guys the deal is this volatility can sometimes give us a reversal in the market and if we have started a very very short term uptrend that reversal meaning it's gonna favour the downside and obviously we always favor the downside because it's a bear market could mean that we're ready to test the lows now we're also starting to see a bit of candle action telling us the same thing although I am venturing extremely dangerously into over-analysis territory when I'm saying this so please think this all with a grain of salt however what we are seeing with the boss if you guys know how they work I've covered this a couple of times crypto Kobe talks about this as well is that they will test the liquidity ranges and so they're gonna take massive pumps in one direction or massive dumps and what we did see was first of all two pumps that were rejected the first pump coming fairly high as as usual so the first dump in this case also going fairly low and then it tested a high again both times it got rejected so the next test was to the downside however the downside also got rejected and so that what this was telling the Bulls is that each time a high is tested and it's rejected the market moves back into the equilibrium that it established the same thing happened in this case where it did test the low once twice thrice and now four times in a row however in between that it kept on getting rejected telling you that there were bulls at this level but the bad news is that even though we were moving back into a market equilibrium that market market equilibrium has been getting lower so if I draw a quick actually I'm gonna draw this for you to make it more clear you know our sideways range looked a little bit like this previously and that price range looking at the crosshair on the right hand side was between 35 90 and about 36 20 on the coin base chart now the consolidation range has gotten lower each time we turn to some sort of market equilibrium it has moved to a lower level and the key thing is that we're getting rejected at lower levels previously we were getting rejected significantly higher but now our rejections are getting lower and that is telling us that even though we are getting rejected from this bottom support area we're still finding resistance at an area which we were previously finding a bit of support in I hope that makes it clear I love using this drawing tool let me know if it does help you out and so that is the potential image that we are looking at on Bitcoin but what I want to cover for you it's actually the descending triangle that I was talking to you about way back so this was more of a macro analysis theory and as you know I don't make micro and macro analysis theories very often but when I do they turn out to play play out very very well the last main one I made was this kind of descending triangle and how if we do drop below 6000 we would go way lower into the four thousand and three thousands I saw this coming from a mile away and that is exactly what happened because we dumped down with extreme ferocity one of the worst dumps we saw in Bitcoin ever just because of how much panic it caused and given that Bitcoin was already so large however that's that's my reminder to do this video right there however what we have seen and what I said in that video is that I made the video I think when we were around about here what I said is that I want to see the support tested one more time and then resistance tested one more time as well that's what I said would be the two conditions to make me feel quite confident in this theory so one a me a quick update obviously you know what happened now we did almost drop down to this $3,100 bottom support level however we haven't yet tested the high as well now we've gotten nearly close enough to it and potentially even close enough to this support area as well and that's why I'm talking about it with you in this video today now first off just to quickly recap with you this descending triangle would usually mean that it's going to break to the downside and what I said in my kind of theory video is that we would trade kind of sideways for the first half of 2019 we test this descending triangle a little bit we'd have some sort of final capitulation down by a couple hundred dollars it doesn't really matter and then we would trade sideways again after May for the second half of 2019 and then the bear market would be finished that was kind of my macro analysis theory and I still stand by it today it's getting a little bit we because we haven't tested these ranges but what we did do was we actually found support down at the $3,300 supported range this is exactly what we found support before and I was outlining this for you I mentioned when we were down here that we could expect to move up to the 34 s I was incorrect we went significantly higher than that however I think I was one of the only people calling for a bit of a market reversal there way too many people were bearish at a support level however if we do want to count this as a relative support zone I think it's good enough because the 6,000 descending triangle support wasn't perfect as well we can look at the initial capitulation which is where we draw the descending triangle from with our current trend however previous consolidation ranges did not go down exactly to this line and we are still able to count it perhaps a more accurate way to draw this would be simply using a box to show that we have a relative support own like this and then doing the exact same thing on a smaller time frame to show that we have a bit of a support range like this as well now I did show you this regarding B cache and how these trends typically play out so you know if you get a descending triangle within one trend you're likely to see the same trend being repeated perhaps on a smaller time frame within the same asset class this is quite advanced charting theory so if you don't understand what I'm talking about don't worry this is actually going to be covered in my full flies trading school so I could be more information on that as it comes I'm still working on it I want to make it as good as possible so what we did have was a potential bounce off this relative support zone maybe even a potential hit of this resistance now I think we can still hit this resistance I mean this resistance is going lower by the day and so it's getting a little bit easier to test this resistance level so I would really like to see a rejection at this level however I don't actually think it's a very strong resistance level and if we do test it I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up going as high as four point two K and as I did say in the last video even going as high as a $5,000 range that would invalidate this descending triangle but until that happens you know if you do just get rejected at this level and we fall down to the descending triangle support that is going to make a lot of sense telling us that this macro trend is still intact let's break down what happened on litecoin because it has been moving very very interesting with interest oh my god interestingly is that even a well it doesn't sound like a word right now interestingly that is a word and not saying it right I don't even know but let's take a look at light coins so as I did show for you I was posting this trade in gold so what I actually mentioned in gold is basically the full details of my entry everything that VIP is got I also put out an exclusive video breaking down why I'm entering this trade it was very very in-depth analysis it's the type of content that I only reserved for VIP members I put it into gold as a one-off so check that video out if you haven't already even though the trade is over now it's still worth watching and I did outline why I was making this trade I entered at about her when my crosshair was and it played out really really nicely I mean as expected we bounced off the 380 level which was previous support we went as high as the 236 level now I didn't expect that we would get rejected her so badly however I was prepared for it anyway I was updating VIPs in real-time of where I was closing my position to take profit so this was where I closed in a 30% profit now this position actually went up to a high of about 42 percent profit but unfortunately I didn't close that high 30 percent was the highest that I closed I closed 50% of my position up to this point here at 30 percent profit worked out really well but I was talking about how I couldn't raise my stop-loss now guys the way this works is I share all of my trades or all my entries my exits my stop-loss all of that information to VIP members and occasionally I will give some free content to the gold channel as well so I did share the details on my litecoin entry however what I didn't do was update on the exits and things like that that was only for VIP members so VIP members were able to see where I was taking profit and subsequently where I also raised my stop-loss because I was quite upset about leaving my stop-loss so low it was about where my crosshair is right now I didn't want to be in a loss on this kind of position so what I did was as I did show you the weak signs on Bitcoin I mentioned that was happening in VIP and told VIP members that in an effort to control my risk I've already been de-risking my position simply by taking profit at 30% but in order to control my risk a little bit better I actually raised my position on my stop-loss to break-even and that meant that after all of the profits I've taken my stop-loss was at breakeven so it was not possible to lose money on that trade and any money I did make was locked in nicely and safely this is exactly the kind of trade that I love making VIPs were updated in real time where I was closing this and updating my stop-loss and different things like that this is actually one of the messages I got from a VIP member up 32% and eclipsing his wages for the entire month absolutely crazy stuff so if you do want to get in on this he'll up the first link in the description down below and then click on the add for files at the bottom of any post in for flies gold it'll look a little bit like that and shoot me a message now when I think like Quinn is going next good question so we dropped down from the 382 support level line I did mention if we tested the 382 level after this again the chances that we break down would go up and so we did break down exactly like that this is a situation where everything I called on the coin happened to tea you know it doesn't happen like this every time but it feels pretty damn good when it does especially because in this case I was able to trade it on we fell down from the three a2 level what we have to keep in mind without the 382 Falacci Fibonacci level and the six one eight five energy levels are the most important Fibonacci levels at least in my opinion but almost everyone will agree with that which is really weird by the way usually you don't get a consensus like that now if we do one take away three eight two it'll give you point six one eight and if we do one takeaway point six one eight or give us point three eight two so these are symmetrical numbers they both add up to one and and so that is potentially why they are so significant and so when we draw from the three a2 level we can expect to find some support at the six one eight level now this is significant because we actually consolidated right at this six one eight level as well we found a little bit of support and resistance we traded right around this zone on our way up we found a little bit resistance at this level and what makes this quite interesting is that the six one eight level on this retracement is also exactly where like we found a little bit of support and resistance on the four-hour chart back here yes so we found a little bit of support and resistance back here and again as resistance before when we drop below it turned into resistance and that is exactly where the trend consolidated full litecoin on this Fibonacci may or may have not been drawn perfectly or it is the better X chart so would be a little bit different go to the litecoin chart and bit max now because this is what I was trading on so this six one eight level doesn't look quite significant it lines up with the previous consolidation where well with our consolidation range on the way up and it lines up with previous resistance and it's the six one eight level which is in my opinion the most of and Fibonacci level you've seen me trading the 382 level and booking a 30 percent profit on this the 6 1/8 level is in my opinion more powerful and what's interesting to note about this is that litecoin actually started to show a lot of weakness so what I was saying in this post is that I'm I'm happy with this trade so far but would like to have seen more strength than what we saw was that lack of strength manifested in the form of weakness because we dropped down from a potentially strong Fibonacci level and this was at a time where Bitcoin really wasn't doing too badly I mean it dropped by about 30 dollars after my video people were saying how that's a massive dump which is absolutely crazy you know we have to stop obsessing over small price movements you know what I used to say a lot I stopped saying it because it was potentially annoying something I don't know no one told me it was annoying but I'm just guessing it was you know where I repeat the same things over and over and what I was saying is that we lose picture we lose a view of the bigger trend because we're too sensitive to current price action now guys the winning traders who have stable account growth over the days weeks months years and decades are not the kind of people that are going to obsess over weeks like this and say that these are major movement people who do that are gamblers and addicts if they're not drug addicts or gambling addicts they are compulsive in different forms of life you know these kinds of personality traits do translate into all forms of life so if this is you you need to seriously change how you work up with these things you know these were not major moves I mean I am analyzing this as almost a one-off because it tells us where we could be headed especially because there's bot movements are so clean right now but it is usually not a good idea to be obsessing over these things we need to not lose track of the wider picture when we're in a market trend like this now what this lack of strength means for litecoin is that it could potentially be ready to drop down to the 6 1 8 level because the point 5 support level you know we only own one or two candles depending on how you count this trading around the 0.5 level 3 maybe if you count this one really wasn't too significant we only got one or two touches in this case and the point 5 Fibonacci level just historically isn't a very very significant level anyway and so if we have fallen down to this level and we dropped from the more significant 3 a2 level while Bitcoin basically did nothing that is telling us that potentially a drop down to the six one eight level just out of pure weakness from litecoin is on the cards and so I am looking to potentially long this level now Mike issue with it is that the consolidation range wasn't very very long and also seeing this weaknesses isn't really a good sign anyway now what I might do just to kind of scalp a profit is set a limit long and just kind of close the position when it's up by one or two percent and obviously on leverage I would be ten twenty percent just close the position and walk away with that nice easy profit however obviously these things aren't so clear if I do do something like that I will of course update VIP is in full detail now this weakness is also showing on Bitcoin and seeing is that we are keep continuously testing these levels and we're getting rejected at lower levels I think that the chances that we do move down are increasing a little bit as well I'm not too sure if I spoke about CBO we are the at the beginning of this video but this is the one thing I forgot to mention in the previous video and it is where when we get the CBOE futures contracts expiring which is today by the way for every 30th we can expect a little bit of volatility and typically this volatility will manifest in the form of market reversals now we have had a very very very very very short short term uptrend in this case literally just in one move but seeing as though a reversal if this is a market trend and it's not but see it's just imagining if it is a market reversal would mean that we're gonna go down and obviously with a trend that is overwhelmingly bearish where we're setting lower high after low high and all that very very bearish trend if we start to get some signs telling us that we're going to be continuing downwards I personally will be favoring those signs just because they're stronger than what the trend agrees with and the trend is your friend as you know and so you have to be a little bit you have to be more open well I act at least I'm typically more open to the bearish side of things when we start to get some bearish signs and more open to those apart from in situations like this of course especially when we start to get these drastic warning signs you know I mean there are a lot of different ways to what's the word to interpret this I mean this could just be a falling wedge within like I said a very very short term uptrend ready to test upper resistance and then maybe even go the $4,200 level you know these things are too hard to say and so right now seeing is that my stop-loss did hit at break-even and I did already book the profits on litecoin which I shared in VIP I am quite happy to be sitting out of any positions right now I do have a couple of orders left I think maybe just one or two orders to well to open positions a couple of orders split across two different positions none of them have hit yet and I don't expect them to hit right now and so I am quite happy to be out of leverage positions because we do still have a few more hours until this daily candle closes we haven't seen any major volatility today on the day of a futures expiry now this futures expiry could expect it could affect the market the day before the day of or the day after and so tomorrow is Valentine's Day I don't know how that's gonna affect the market I don't think it has a massive impact but and that there is an implication there but uh it is something to be aware of it's why I'm quite happy to be outside of a position right now just kind of sit and wait to see what's gonna happen as you know my approach with these things is when I feel even a little bit of uncertainty during times of great uncertainty I am very very willing to sit out on the market maybe that means I lose out on profits that would have been potentially a little bit easy but it means when I do get into a position I'm ready to pounce on the market and absolutely kill it as I like to do that is pretty much my take for the market today descending triangle still looks to be intact like I showed you it could still be valid even if we don't exactly hit the support level it can be a relative support area the same maybe goes for the resistance I don't actually know but either way it wouldn't be very hard to test its resistance at all and seeing as this triangle is playing out pretty much kind of like half of the length of the previous one it does make sense for the more macro trend if we start to see characteristics repeat themselves I made a lot more III went into a lot more detail in the video where I detailed that little macro piece of analysis thank you I hope you have enjoyed this video if you have make sure you hit up that subscribe button and also take the bail so it will notify you anytime I upload a video these videos are very timely so you want to get them as soon as possible if you have enjoyed this one and you want some more content from me go ahead and expand the description click on the first link in the description it'll take you to my telegram channel complete be free no signup process click on it look something a little bit like this hit allow and then click on the at full flies button to send me a message if you do when I joined VIP as well you'll get access to all of my updates you'll see Ward trades I'm entering and of course get exclusive VIP videos as well I hope you have enjoyed this one Cheers


  1. Litecoin Summer 2019 mining reward halving getting closer every day! Then Bitcoin May 2020!

    Litecoin up 5X during 2015 halving run up!

  2. BTC 380k transactions last 24h, highest since jan, 3rd, 2018; BTC 760k active addresses, highest since march, 6th, 2018

  3. 3500 then break out: my opinion: based on correction range 2018 FEB to MAY… hoping to see pullback to complete triangle and then breakout… opinion only.. bad news… could stop around 4000 and then fall to test the lows around 3000

  4. Bro..with ur voice and articulation in perfect English, you can make a marvellous career in movie-, radio- tv world!

  5. hahaha just realized i didnt really understand what ur saying in ur intro but didn't care what it meant, same with the moons intro, he sounds drunk 😀 just here for the best TA 🙂

  6. Thank you for breaking down the intro, I tried slowing the speed, I tried closed caption and nothing worked. Mystery solved 🙂

  7. Very good video Steem is showing very Bullish signs, it wants to go back to 1,000 sats … I’m selling LTC now (and everything else “THAT HAS PUMPED” ) and holding my other positions

  8. Wall Street must be furious on how slow we are dumping. JPMorgan has asked for $1200, we can show them at least 1K for sure.
    Sooner we can show them a safe OTC entry buy in, sooner we'll get the ETFs approved.

  9. Most of us peasants would not have known Bitcoin was going to move from £2600 to around £2800. No TA in the world could have had predicted that move; looking left or with any probabilities – get real! Likewise no one knows as from this message datetime where the Bitcoin price is going next. Does it test up to resistance and maybe even break it or does Bitcoin go back down. TA will not tell you this…

  10. the intro has always bugged me tbh XD i thought im the only one who couldnt get it fully but apparently others has gone as far as asking you about it lol

  11. Yessss the drawing /highlighting and visible C_rsor.. it's the little things that make a HUGE difference.
    Love your show /ta /commentary etc

  12. I really like your TA and enjoy your videos, BUT you will have to take this with grain of salt – this market is HIGHLY manipulated that is the real problem with it… MM does what he wants… ragardless of TA

  13. People ask because when you speak fast it looks like you are separating the syllables in the wrong way. Sounds like made-up words.
    At first I was like "dafuc is yowats.. upgu isever yonedoin…"
    Took some time but now I know hehehe

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