Bitcoin BLOODY Valentines?! February 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis



welcome back to you crowns kept okay wish you a very special very happy a very blood-red or perhaps green dildo Valentine's Day today as you can see it's a very special day I've shaved myself so I can start to get through airports once again and also want to be wishing the best the best that happens to the happiest always wish you well as Bitcoin entering the good old holiday of mr. Valentine's so let's get in the live scene right over here and really nothing's changed in the last that means since since we last book really in the last four or five days in fact I actually left all my drawing tools up here so let's just actually scroll down into the lower timeframes and just put them right back on again this is you know this is the picture as it stands Bitcoin essentially hanging out in the six one eight Fibonacci retracement also this horizontal which is also your daily twenty one exponential that is where the that is the area of battle going down right now and as long as bitcoin is around here you know it does feel like pressures on would I be taking shorts right here absolutely not until it actually breaks the only the only way that it take a short is is if you know if we break support or if we go back and test a resistance but looks to me like we've actually tested this one quite a few times already again taking a stab at 3750 on Friday then again at this more immediate intermediary area at the mid 3600 range so again looking at this descending trendline that we've been you know living at it for the last what is it you know three months now ever since middle of November well nothing's really changed as far as a hard time frames go now with the advent of what happened on Friday on this nice green dildo party right here that we witness lab together which was very very fun don't get me wrong about that but it's still nothing has really changed and with that we can now actually make an ascending trendline and I could even put in at some nice horizontal coming back from this this historic area right around thirty three fifty so I would be pretty damn comfortable with relating Bitcoin as either a bear pennant or descending triangle both typically bearishly resolved formations doesn't mean that they always break out to the downside I mean of course I've seen every fucking pad and breaking out everywhere that it's quote-unquote not supposed to by you know the pattern gods willings so again I'm not really a huge pattern trader I don't care all much about it but when I have a bearish formation and a bearish market typically you know gonna be pretty happy to play that so I am still holding a short that I entered in on my main account yes yesterday from about 36 19 didn't get a perfect entry but good enough is good enough and and I'll be holding that as long as we're essentially below 3,600 I'm happy to hold that position now it is getting a little bit hairy in the lower timeframes this is your four hour dildo time frame and our stokes are also ders are you know they're still there so there's still such weighted down and in the bearish control zone but they do feel a little bit tired as Bitcoin is really taking its time around this area you can you'd see that the two hundred exponential is purple moon damage here on the four outdueled of time from really getting the overall support of this and the more that Bitcoin stays around here it does offer up the chance for a Bart as that's typically when we do see these things go down or or in this case it would be up of course higher time frames nothing's changed you know you got your eight hours your eight hour right over here again Stokes on this guy have been heading down for the last two three days and still headed down right now actually gaining momentum down side we got our eight hour RSI training well below the exponential right here and again you know just just all sitting between the bearish control zone and every time that it tries to get into the bullish control zone it just gets rejected what else we have to look at 12 hour 12 hours still situated down I could it be losing momentum I you know I could go both ways on this one obviously you don't play it before it happens but when I do look at a slightly lower timeframe like a 10 hour and we're still gaining moment to the downside I'm gonna imagine that barn any sort of a major run-up you know as long as we're below 3,600 that will still be situated down so you know our medium to high timeframe all fighters are still suggesting down right here we are 12 hour RSI actually did just break the exponential for the first time since since before that February 8th rally so again does feel like pressure is a mountain we do have all moving averages conversion essentially on this 35 50 ish area which I will denote by this horizontal trend line which is also 6 minute fibonacci retracement I mean it's not just a 12 hour Exponential's that I come in and right around here but it's also the daily you know 21 and 10 which if those actually do you cross the upside that typically is a decent signal in my experience however the thing is is that when you're trading when you're trading like overall counter trend in this would be an example of that trading you know basically it would be a bullish cross an overall bearish market those don't work as well as the bearish crosses in a bearish market and vice versa vice versa for a bullish market but as you can see right here you know Bitcoin really flailing around this area and typically speaking when you do get you know a hint of these areas kind of converging on each other that's when that's when resolution is right around the corner so I actually do believe that we should be getting resolution on this formation pretty damn soon I would feel comfortable saying within the next two weeks two to three weeks now I know I've been saying you know relatively soon when we're looking at price action over the course of about three months that's that is relatively soon to me two to three weeks you know it depends are we making some sort of a bear pennant which has a apex in early March March 10th actually to be exact or are we making a descending triangle which if we just extend this a little bit further and use 3350 as the support trendline well that would have an apex a little bit later in in March but still around the corner around the same time remember when these things get relatively full like around 69% for more they become extremely like that likely to explode and with the advent of this last rejection off the green 55 exponential and the failure to get back above essentially the 5 which you know you can see that the bots and Al Gore's are just selling these areas and getting and walking down the market yes I am leading for this to break up to the downside of course it's a fucking bear market so I'm always gonna take the downside when in doubt but that also means that Bitcoin will change around the lower timeframes if it actually can take out this this 3,700 area right here so if we can take that area out you know technically speaking you would have resistance at the 3900 level 3850 what you know it's basically the same fucking number as far as I'm concerned but my opinion is that at that point in time it probably does initiate a run into the low for thousands of course that is you know I'm not leaning towards that happening really but that's that's how it'd be responding if price action were to take out this area right here this is you know this really leads into the conversation of why it I just don't understand the delusion the the delusion that seems to be on all of the crypto you know social medias sites with looking at this from a bullish perspective again I want to be bullish I want to be bullish more than anyone else because that's proof of Katies day when Bitcoin gets back to 20,000 and I love titties but but but but even in the very low timeframes not even breaking this ascending trendline that has been governing our lower highs in fact you even see it get weaker around this area you know at first it was you know is getting the full dildo body to close there then wick then dildo body and then just over just a tight little wick once again and it almost immediately right back down so if we do break the six one eight I would feel pretty damn comfortable that we do come all the way back down to the seven eight six at around thirty three fifty and test the supports as you know we just tested the resistance but technically speaking you will have the support right here at 3485 thirty four ninety two penny pony exchange and that will likely be the impetus for a small bounce I'd imagine but I do think that if it bounces it probably bounced back to the six when I get rejected and then and then you know have that full fall through down at the seven eight six something like that of course just like to the upside to the downside I don't have full confirmation Toby actually break this seven eight six and also the bottom support trend lines of whether you look at this as a as a pennant or a descending triangle it's about the same at 3350 if that actually does break then that's when I I do believe that point in time we will initiate a flush technically speaking you will have another support all the way down at your eighty eight six per notch retracement which also kind of lines up with our prior low at thirty to fifty right here but you know I kind of have the same opinion on that as probably just a small bounce maybe even come back and test thirty three hundred but but my my real opinion is that that probably initiates the flush why do I say that why do I have that disposition well going over here to our bitstamp chart and getting some actual color on these on these on these dildos right now we can see that if we put on if we put on this or sorry let's actually just take that off and put on the volume profile you can see on the volume profile we're currently hanging on to the last high value node which ends at around thirty three fifty ish mark after that there's nothing doing there's very low market acceptance as you know the proper term between about low thirty three hundred and in mid to low to thousands you'll notice that that is very similar to what bitcoin had at the six thousand mark here when it actually broke it there's just nothing doing until the high three thousands to low for thousands area so again keep this sort of perspective in mind because if it does happen it's likely to be a similar flush obviously not as intense I mean that this was you know quite literally a gap of about two thousand a little bit more than two thousand dollars at the six thousand level this one's more a gap of more of like about like five hundred to a thousand bucks but again you know same same sort of thing where a Bitcoin just you know you're been consolidating for three months now it's likely to like lead it likely to have kind of an explosive type thing let's actually look at our consolidation airy ish type also it is let's go put on the bbws which again it's not the kind that you find in the secret ta but it's also but it is the kind that you can find in real ta and that is if we go to a daily which is where I want to be looking at this guy on this guy is gonna be telling you about consolidations and you can see that the last time that we actually even got this slow sorry I should explain what this is the bbw is just a she's big she's beautiful she's a woman [Laughter] no it's different it is the Bollinger Bands with the troll engine bands which I'm not a huge fan of but they do help get this sort of thing typically right and that is what we were looking at at the 6000 level to actually know when positions were you know it was the right time to actually take a position anyways on their daily right here you can see that it's measuring the width and we have only gotten into this mandir this area on the daily you know a few times in bitcoins history and really when it does get down here it doesn't stay here for long and we're gonna put this into context with a bunch of other things but really the last time that we were in this area was you know obviously November when Bitcoin well you probably member it broke six thousand to three thousand the times before that it was it was not a break to the downside this is not tell you about which direction it's gonna break but the last time that uh that the troll injured bands were this you know this tight on each other Bitcoin was in a more bullish market so your consolidations are gonna naturally break up to the upside more more often than not however in this market when Bitcoin has literally been in a downtrend for over a year since January of 2018 well probably more likely to break out to the downside again if Bears been winning for the last year with all their massive red dildos well it it works until it doesn't work right that's that's the saying that we say works until it does not work know that a you know a lot of people are not gonna like that uncertainty within a statement like that but hey it's fucking true man when it comes to technical analysis you use it until it doesn't work essentially let's see you know you can see very obviously that the Vaughn cares this are just that nice trailing off volume even with Friday's green dildo party still not even out of the context of of what of what got us into this area so to me again this is just consolidation consolidation coming off of a major downtrend probably likely to lead to more downs right talents Jesus Christ man let's see what our daily Stokes doing right now daily daily Stokes are getting right back up to the edge of the bullish control zone but keep in mind this keep in mind this you know we looked at the trendline on the 12 hour before but actually now we do have one on the daily if Bitcoin gets rejected I mean if big a Bitcoin turns down you're not necessarily get roots gets rejected but if it turns down here it is signaling a loss of momentum this goes all the way back to the September highs which let me remind you what price action was looking like at that time at that point in time that was this area right here like right before Bitcoin got rejected from 7400 and went down to about 6,000 the span of a few days basically straight down so again that you know that peak and then the next peak I believe was this guy here on December 24th let's just make sure that actually lines up going back on to our Stokes yeah this guy yeah December December 22nd was when we put that in last and now we are once again you know finding resistance around this area so to me that would be that that would be indicative of this area having high probability for you know turning down from this area I think that it does you know my opinion is that we do break this area head back down to the prior lows and do you break that on to new lows I don't believe that the lows around for Bitcoin I strongly believe that I strongly believe that the lows are not in for the corn actually you know as long as you know as far as the things that I look for for a major market cycle bottom Bitcoin has none of the six things that I look for and if you want a full in-depth explanation of that definitely go check out the playlist on my youtube channel titled long-term analysis but I'll briefly mention them right now of course yet go to that playlist if you want you know much more in-depth details but basically Bitcoin spending the time spent at the low weights you fucking long so that's zero for one Bitcoin the percentage bounce off the low is not consistent with the way that Bitcoin typically plays out it's more aggressive it's more aggressive turnarounds so that's 0 for 2 Bitcoin returning essentially back to the lows within a few percentages of it on a couple months later in February from the December low over here that strike number 3 marks do not give you multiple times by below as far as I'm concerned especially with that close between each other I mean we can go look an example of that actually really quick cuz I do I don't think I showed an example of this but in 2014 you have a great example of what Bitcoin did over here and you can see that you know Bitcoin while it did spend a lot of time going sideways around this area it never really gave you it was actually quite far away from the formulas literally almost 50% it was 45% actually if you take this wick over here it's still about 30 you know 32 percent 33 percent whatever it you know around there right now we actually came within about I think five or so something like that let's see yeah but sorry less than five four percent within the prior low that is extremely on consistent inconsistent with the way that I typically see mark cycle loads being you know put through with regards to Bitcoin of course every different asset has different personalities with how it does it and they might be a little bit less because bitcoins you know obviously very very violent and very volatile but that's just a testament to bitcoins personality what's the other ones well high volatility rank not signaling a massive load em et signal which has called every major market cycle low before and also market cycle top actually not signaling low either and what else do we have I think that covers all six so 0 for 6 is not good enough I mean even if it was 3 out of 6 I would still probably not be good enough but I am going to maintain this belief I'm gonna maintain that that is the right way to be analyzing this as long as Bitcoin is essentially below well I'm especially but as long as it's below this 3700 resistance right here but that even if it got above there well I do believe that you probably have a rally into the four thousands I don't think that that's that's that's not a signal in and of itself that the bear markets over just yet a Bitcoin could both open and close a a weekly deal above this purple 200 exponential moving average at 4100 that would be that would be something to really consider but for now you know as as long as we are below that area with all the other in some shion's in mind it's it there's no reason to believe that but that also means that Bitcoin could quite literally rally all the way up to you know 40 100 and and still not you know change around the picture so again you know is that's that's you know about $500 rally it's quite significant not only that but keep in mind and the is where things get a little bit more interesting because if we do put it on the monthly this monthly green fifty-five exponential is actually providing the impetus for resistance and the way that I look at it we have a slight wick above which is completely fine you can have a wick all the way above like we did on the prior in January but as long as we close this guy below by end a month and a month in February so another couple weeks then this will be actually the first monthly dildo to both open and close below the green fifty-five exponential not only that but I will now but I do consider this these last three months of consensually of consolidation and with this consolidation I look at these two moving averages the ten simple in the yellow 21 exponential as an insight into where this is likely to get resolved towards and if that tends to book cross to the downside of the yellow 21 which it does have a much more steep slope I mean not not super steep it's definitely more steep than the 21 if they do cross and that is going to be my next big you know indicator that this is very likely to move further on downwards towards the next the next major movement averages which is 24 50 again 2450 does line up with a lot of other projections not only the monthly major moving averages but also going down around here to our bitstamp chart we do have the aided six-burner tradesmen coming around that area that is where bitcoin did bottomed out in 2014 back in this area it is also nice historical horizontal trend lines shut up car sorry it is also the volume profile as we just looked at before coming in around there and we do have some what else do we have we also have the the weekly the weekly 3 7 7 exponential coming in right around there which is just something that typically holds a lot of weight in traditional marks I'm here to see how it does in Bitcoin land but yeah you know that's kind of what's battling right now so that 3700 mark is pretty damn important but from the monthly timeframe that only needs to be closed below or you know by end of month so you could get you could theoretically get a run to 4,000 still close a monthly below that area and that would be incredibly fucking bearish so again understand you know pretty damn natural to come back and retest an area like that so far it's been rejected as you know and I think it becomes a lot more visually apparent and and and obvious when you look at the other when you look at the other major cap all its let's go look at mister beuter all over here mister butor all looking a little bit sick to me again just another action off of this trendline remember this trendline goes all the way back to when mr. Budrow was about $800 in Jesus Christ it goes so far back have to scroll yeah and May May of 2018 when he was quite literally $825 ever since then it has not been able to get above this trendline and every time that it touches this trendline it initiates pretty major dump looking at this guy right here you do see you you do see just another wick above I mean similar to the book that we got above last night and I do believe that on our eight hour RSI yes we are we did lose the exponential we are kicked out of the bullish control zone also the eight hour Stokes heading honey heading down and have plenty of room to move downwards let's go look at the 10 hour yep 10 hour same thing 12 hour 12 hour just crossed down fresh cross down let's see I guess the daily probably hasn't done yet yeah but it is losing momentum and we do have some resistance around this area as you'd imagine overall you know this is I mean yesterday's daily does look like another rejection of this area even putting in a slightly higher high basically a stop run off of just yeah just take oh my god this is so nasty you're a nasty girl mister beuter all 130 and 46 sent a high yesterday taking out the taking out the prior high but it's just a fucking cell man that was just a a literal stop hunt taking up you know price section above gets everyone stops who think that their genius you know shorty in this area right here which you know probably the right trade probably the right trade but when you place the stop-loss it's like that that is what that is what you leave your your bunghole open and open to so be aware of that Angus is not safe in this market with static stop losses now of course there are you know if my what my own ways of doing it this is one of the reasons why I manage it you know more more directly if I'm at my computer obviously if I'm sleeping you know you have to do a stop loss but there are ways around that as well and so far today has just been another you know another try at 2.5 essentially at 126 127 and so far rejected looks like we did closed our first daily below the 55 and a couple days but that doesn't mean all that much by on its own today is a little bit less omnious right here I mean yes you did you did kind of close a massive long-legged doji on your last two day total time last two days although but it's it actually looks a little bit more a little bit less a little bit less unhealthy I suppose you could say not really getting too much else from from from my all sorters here but if we go down to the for our we actually did up a perfect an actual just I mean this this is almost fully fully fully perfect this is like one tick below full perfect signal on the jewel with the with the light blue getting pulled into the pink which was pulled into the into the into my white and that told you to sell right here that was at 127 it looks like so again you know jewel jewel getting it right and and wow you know this thing actually is pretty damn close to getting that Golden Cross right now I I do imagine that you're probably gonna see some bought and algo activity come into the next before the next close which will also be the next 12 hour clothes and we should see and and I'm and I'm imagining that this probably does get contested if not then for our de load going across you know last time we had one was a pretty pretty massive up all the way over here in December twenty-fifth you don't get these often before that you know your last Golden Cross was in May I mean before May essentially and getting ended in May before the death cross so you know if this if this actually does get confirmed I would be careful I mean that would be a very bullish thing and these things typically do get as far as historically speaking they actually do get played pretty damn well so again keep that in mind definitely do keep that in mind but overall I think I see a little bit more bad things and good things in this one you know volleying have still that of consolidation still just hanging around these areas and let's go check out missus litecoin missus like coin also doing the same thing basically missus like point doing exactly what we said last night hitting hitting the 142 area almost literally 1 cent below actually nice nicely done and rejecting from there you know yeah as long as you're below forty two and a half bucks I would be overall bearish on this guy doesn't mean that you can't get a bar back up above this area but if it does get back into the 45 area I would be a seller there if I mean if he even gets back about forty two dollars I wouldn't you know you it might even be worth a little bit of a buy for a scalp again that's not fun it's not reviser but just sharing my opinions on exactly what I do in these situations by the same token big support at forty dollars thirty nine and a half dollars in this kind of blocky territory I do believe that it probably breaks us over a tower here does look what do we have to say about the idea of stoke still headed down still get a momentum down but are getting a little bit more mature in our RSI just in the neutral zone not giving us too much do we have any as a jewel giving us any signals now not nothing perfect I don't I don't like those signals yeah it's it's just like to to be type signals is what is what I look at 12 hour here you know we just crossed our daily Stokes to the downside what about daily yeah daily Stoke just crosses the downside after a few snakes I believe that that you know that that typically will have some weight not you know my personal opinion is that this one sees a stab down to the thirty seven thirty eight dollar mark sometime it within like the next week or so is what I'd be looking out on this guy but other than that you know daily daily RS I did just lose the exponential is training below there right now you know again you know an event-driven type thing right it has some some sort of an announcement that they changed their fucking logo or some shit which is like that's asinine that that even changes our market around it just shows how irrational this bitch is and and just coming back up to the big breakdown level from you know October November right and gets rejected right there so so far you know that to me tells me that we are still you know in the heavy grips of this of this bear market territory but hey if that also means though if missus like one was able to get above this what is it like let's call it let's call it 48 bucks and if you want to be more conservative you could say like 51 this is own it if you can get above I that would actually be the more traditional way of saying for missus litecoin bear marks over baby again you know has some work to do in so far as Penry is been fully reject from that area but that's what I'd be looking for you know anywhere above 51 dollars I don't think that there's any more questions asked I mean I guess you could say 55 and a half but I think it would get there if it did take out 50 51 even 47 a half dollars you do have to be you do have to have that on your mind so yeah let's go check out GBC really quick GBC big down completely erasing the day's the day's gains before and look at this on GBC a very obvious descending triangle right so it is interesting me that we have both GBC and spot charts really in sync with each other right now in fact neither one actually fully leading but you can see a little bit easier on gbtc I figure and that and you see and you see this nice orderly drop up in volume again within this consolidation telling me that well it's a consolidation you have a nice little bear trap over here but then you get rejected up resistance over here and an apex on this guy all the way in where late March so again this one actually would suggest that it could take a little bit longer but to me this one looks like it wants come down in the more immediate time frames we do have I believe our but what is it like our for our Stokes they are coming down right now you do see that pretty easily but what about our eight hour eight I was probably still headed up yeah so again I do think that this one wants come down a little bit more we need to see it our twenty one exponential and I believe the for our no we had did not lose the for our twenty one but it lost ten simple but that's not that's not a huge deal so yeah keep an eye on that one keep definitely keeping on that one oh I should also say I'm not gonna be on later tonight today or at least probably not gonna be on later straight cuz well if there's no price action there's no there's no real point but also money like go have dinner with Elsa so that would be nice but overall GBC you know does does look like pressures on right now even if there was another run at this 4:42 area I think that that would be a sell so yeah let's get back on over to mr. Bitcoin I want to show a few more things now let's go over to the crypto fear and greed index and you know what yesterday you'll remember that we saw this out of 38 guess what it is today it's 48 this is the highest it's been which is which is basically neutral I mean as far as I'm concerned a 48 read and an overall bearish market is like it's like exude it's like irrational greed but a 48 read is essentially I think this is better to relate to on an actual chart which you can see this has been go this has been governing art our highs just about perfectly just about perfectly when if you were to make a trend line between all the highs this was your February dump this was your may dump from 10,000 to 6,000 this was your early August dump from 8,000 6,000 this was your well this over here was your September dump this over here was your November dump from 6,000 to 3,000 and we are once again kind of you know if you made a trendline between these ones we are pretty much right around there I mean these highs have like a nice orderly drop as well you have a 74 read read here that was again February May was 63 so you might be noticing a trend November was 52 and we are now at 48 so we're in the zone where it does feel like there is you know people are probably gonna be on the wrong side of the trade let's actually extend this just a little bit more let's go over to the let's go over to data mission see what the long sad shorts data says we are at 22,000 open shorts now 22,000 and a quarter which really it's actually 8 it's a little bit under 19,000 open shorts because we have three a little over 3,000 these guys hedged first since 33,000 open Long's again this is this is fucking insane this is insanity this is another in you know I should really make it seven reasons well I don't believe that the the overall bottom is in and this would be one of them you want to see these opposite you want to see shorts way up way ahead of Long's you want to see you want to see like a 60/40 imbalance essentially something like that that way you have overhead liquidity to actually you know by up into right now we have quite literally the opposite we have we have we have short liquidity for for bears to sell into essentially so let's go look at this on the charts and again Long's are right at this critical area I have I've marked this off with the horizontal the reason why I did that is because anytime that Long's get above this area it actually does initiate a pretty nasty dump now it doesn't tell you when that's gonna happen but typically speaking when you get back below that horizontal that's when the dump you know commences of course it's it's you know it's gotten as high as forty thousand before but keep this in mind put this in context with the fear and greed index that we just looked at everyone's fucking long people are neutral to in and I kind of read that as basically bullish basically greedy and we haven't broken a major resistance Long's are historically pretty fucking high right now again I can they can certainly get another you know 7000-8000 higher historically speaking in the more in the most critical areas but Bitcoin has not even broken the smallest resistance that we've been looking at that 3,700 level right and even that would not change around the picture at large nice to get back above you know the it needs to both open and close a weekly dil above 4100 essentially so it has a lot of work to do that's what I'm trying to say and where are you gonna find these bars but if everyone's already fucking bought who's left to buy now let's go look at shorts shorts shorts in real time or actually right at 20 mm they're about to drop below 23 20 mm so we have quite literally lost through over 3000 shorts in the last two days and if you want to go about a week back we've lost about what is it 6,000 shorts so shorts are letting go their positions okay and if they're letting go their positions and that means that they are buying they're having buy pressure on and price action is still not going up it's actually drifting sideways to slightly down if anything so we have not broken even the most preliminary resistance at 3700 people are getting more greedy Long's are at historical historically on the higher side and shorts are historically on the lower side and might I remind you every time that it does get down into low to thousands or especially below to tower sorry in the low 20,000 soar especially below 20,000 that's when major dumps have occurred in bitcoins history this is your March dump from 10,000 to 6,000 this is your May dump from 10,000 to 6,000 this is your July dump from 8,000 6,000 this is your August dump from from 7075 hundred to to 6,000 this is your November dump from 6,000 to 3,000 more once again getting near this range we're in yeah I'm gonna actually mark this off with a blue with a with a box it's anywhere in this range right here sorry let's actually get this right yeah that's that's where major dumps typically do happen so it's it's a little bit lower right around 20,000 you know yes maybe maybe I should include this this spike here that was a nice dump indeed but didn't really break any major resistances so yeah you know keep these things in mind keep these things in mind that it's the the underlying markdown makes favor the Bears as well not only do not only that but you know the price structure which is lower highs lower lows downtrend bear market consolidation within a bear market probably you know you know I'm probably gonna lead on to some more down so let's go check out CME's right now CME's are interesting to me as well because they actually are given a slightly different read we have the same formation same you know same formation we have that same orderly drop in volume going from left to right over here and that tells me this is likely a consolidation it's very it's I think that this one's a little bit more obviously a descending triangle then spot charts and if we bring up our all sweaters right here we do have some nice hidden bearish divergence between this point and this point basically right at the edge of the neutral control zone so that would be our January ninth highs and our and the highs that we just put in on February 8th again no fall through as of yet and that is that hesitation is not good when when a bear market actually does switch around they don't give you like days I mean almost quite literally a week now to think about getting in out of what is what would relatively be a very decent price let's go to let's go to a different time time frame let's go to a for our for our stoke still headed south what about a tower a tower Stokes headed south ten-hour Stokes still headed south will lose momentum 12-hour just crossed to the downside actually just crossed the downside and getting rejected right where or perhaps getting rejected right we're right around the edge of the bullish control zone so that would be a rejection from the bullish control zone as well so keep these things in mind I mean not only that but Bitcoin you know spot charts do you have resistance around this area on the 12 hour you know basically the same thing as a daily actually but again on the 12 hour it doesn't go back as far as September the daily the daily resistance that we saw it was born all the way from September this guy actually is even a little bit more dubious in my opinion from on the 12 hour because these this these last few spikes this guy right here December 21st and January 8 those were the last two hives of this consolidation right here and right here forty 240 100 respectively so again to me this is we haven't seen anything change we are just slowly seeing everything ground down and the second that we lose 35 50 I I think that you probably return to your prior lows and you I mean do you do you break the do you break the prior lows on the next test that's that's that's more of a question that I don't really have an answer to but I would be saying that pressure will be on once again if if they do break then yes and I look towards the mid to low 2000s essentially that's you know that's that's pretty much what I'm thinking right now let's go check out something else this is something completely new this is oxt this is basically given stats on bit Max's wallets right and I thought it was pretty interesting right I thought it's pretty interesting because it shows you the money going into the exchange and coming out of the exchange and you know oh and you know what the imbalances the imbalance is about three to one going in versus coming out so again money goes into exchanges it never comes out but it's actually kind of in a way if you think about it it's kind of a good thing because bit necks is basically a Hodler a forced toddler in the Insurance Fund in a way but they're slowly soaking up all of the slowly so soaking up you know shit tons of bitcoins I mean they have what is it two hundred almost two hundred twenty thousand bitcoins that's quite a bit quite a bit ma'am so again you know keep these things in mind it is interesting and you know two hundred thousand two hundred twenty thousand bitcoins right well how much would that actually be in relation to the total supply we have there's twenty one twenty 1 million for only president what's up impaired you good to meet you man you know that would be like what 1/100 1/100 of the total supply is is it is basically in bit Max's wallet and I mean I guess they probably do they use the insurance funds for like funding their own their own activities I don't know out of seem probably not but uh but yeah it is interesting it is very insane to me so yeah I think that might cover everything that I wanted to speak about I'm just oh let's go check out let's go check out traditional markets we do have something interesting to be we do have something interesting over here to be aware of daily daily did present daily did print daily did close a potential reversal dildo it's once again all in the table if we check out the low of two seventy four and a half then yeah I think that you actually do have a trade to the downside again not you this hypothetically you it's not financial I'm not a fan sure visor but but again I do have my eyes on a potential reversal allness at some point in time so anytime that it does show a little bit of weakness I would be you know I think I think it's worth a trade it's a very easy tray to take because you don't have to risk all that much to know if you're gonna be wrong but then again if we take all the high of today's dildo at 275 or basically 276 then we're going higher and it's in 278 279 290 or sorry sorry ninety-two seven to 78228 er it would be the next area that I look towards weekly still looks good assuming that we do close up here if if it does close up here overall I would not want to be too damn bearish because you will be getting some nice crossing on your Exponential's but you know daily daily does show a little a smidge of weakness we do our daily Stokes crossing down once again we do have daily we'll print some bearish divergence if if it does take out the low and close this a day below there so you know that that could be a nice thing to be to be aware of does a play out or not again you're gonna need to wait for price action to confirm but if it does happen I think that you probably of a nice trade back down at least with the 200 exponential at 269 so plenty of edge on that trade the Vaughn catch of this you know very similar to Bitcoin st. you know consolidation essentially so I would have the red alerts on I would have the sirens on but wait for it wait for private section to confirm itself first okay what else can we look at let's look at the Bitcoin historical volatility index I think this is quite interesting as well we are again you know basically the same as the BB dubs down around this one you know this this this one range which essentially tells you that Bitcoin doesn't stay down here for long and the last time that we were actually in this range was again October November before the big dump the times before that were more happy times in April sorry April yeah April 2017 was certainly more happy time but for right now that is that is a current disposition that is a current position I'll just very quickly before I go I'll take a look at the historical volatility rank I'm curious what it is printing right now but again I'm gonna I'm gonna imagine that it's probably just printing more more markers of consolidation let's bring this guy up it'll be at the at the bottom here credit to my man ball a boy for putting this one together and I know I'm know I'm using the wrong version but I should have but I just can't figure out which one's the right one right now you know you have this very orderly drop-off right over here which again just tells you that this is all consolidation even with Friday's you know Green dildo party that didn't change anything in my open to things being changed absolutely as a trader you have to be agnostic when it comes to price action but you also have to be realistic nothing's changed literally nothing's changed we have more the same that's what it looks like to me and the historical volatility rank would be suggesting that we are getting very near the area where big moves typically do occur we're get we're getting pretty damn close but again pretty damn close could like quite literally means to me about two weeks when we're looking at a time frame like this so be aware of that it you know there's there's multiple ways to be interpreting this but assume that the moving average actually is going up right now but it was going up over here as well nothing really happened right so again that's what I'd be looking at and I guess I'll quickly go over this as well and then I'll let you go but but weekly over here you know I see a lot of similarities between this area and this area not because I'm a fucking fractal or anything like that I don't care for fractals I don't think that fractals are I don't know any professional who is who ever used fractals are like Elliot waves I don't know a single professional who actually am I saying that no professionals use them I'm not saying that at all I just don't know anyone he's and this is coming from experience as being a professional market maker authorized trader on the flow of new such in jharkhand then later above Chicago boards optics change not a single person ever used one it was typically spoken about in like in like you know in like in jest you know in joke in passing any but I do believe that there's a lot of symmetries between this guy and this guy look at the volume on this and this compared to each other and related to the volume of this and comparison to this you're more parabolic cycle now just as an aside when we actually if and when we actually do you see the more violent form equation which is not necessarily fully necessary that's not redundant enough then I want to see the same volume Kerris on your parabolic cycle over here as I do on your actual capitulation I want to see something something related to each other as you can see right now this is nowhere near each other so again volumes not good enough but my point is that this and this have a lot of similarities we have a descending triangle getting resolved to the downside and having a nice 52% drawdown then in 2018 we have the same sort of thing descending triangle breaks to the downside and we have what well I just I just took a little bit more but it's basically coming off this area right here what do we have in another like 51 percent drawdown okay pretty damn similar then we have a nice bounce back up we have a nice bounce bounce back up about 24% in 2014 and what do we have over here we have a nice bounce up bounce back up of about 25% now this was done in 2014 over the course of about 12 weeks let's count it out one two three four five six seven eight nine 10 11 12 when 2018 or sorry 2019 over here we have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 working on right now now do these now do these things have to be like perfectly identical in time no and in fact I would argue that we're probably gonna take longer in this segment over here but a lot of people are looking at this higher high in 2014 and looking at this as flat dole and that means that you know you have to go onwards and upwards and test the 21 exponential which I would say is unlikely you actually cross the yellow 20 my exponential in green 25 much more early in the 2018 scenario than you did in the 2014 over here and that is why I don't believe that they're related I think that a Bitcoin did get some upward momentum it probably gets you know to the to the children exponential and probably you know closes a deal or blow they're just basically confirming the form a trend essentially once again just another another rejection but my point is is that we can actually look at a completely unique indicator we can look at the MBT sono which is divorced from the price volume and time indicators that we typically look at it is you know it's this complete external it's it's it's a fundamental indicator is what it really is it's a network of value divided by the daily transaction value and we actually got the same read in both these areas and it's very interesting because you know again network value divided about divided by the daily transaction value but we're getting the same sort of we're getting literally the same area this is this is the area in question in 2014 and then if we bring up the MVT so no this is this is that 2014 area right where the MBT comes all the way down in for that 50% down trend you know puts in a low spikes up comes back down to lows and then puts in a higher height then rolls over as it gets you know wrestled by the by the orange moving average I'm gonna fast forward into 2019 and you can see something very similar actually but different on price action you see you know your your nice 50% drawdown putting a low pump up come back down to lows put in a higher high come back down to low put in another high or high right now it's what we're doing and actually we do have what is known as divergence now when the oscillator is making higher highs price section is making lower highs price section is making lower highs from this point to this point although we're making significantly higher has on the MBT so to me again this is you know unlikely to end well and we are making significantly higher highs right now so we're getting a very similar read only MBT even though price action is not the same between those two things and that is why I do believe that you know fractals are very fuck doles are very misleading because it doesn't give you the full the full picture with the indicators we can get a little bit more of a read into it and I think and I believe that is kind of what's happening I think that we've already just put in that area most likely I think that's probably the most likely thing but again as always have to be agnostic as a trader Vic one gets back above the 0.5 basically 3700 then you know I don't see anything stopping from 4,000 yeah technically of resistance at 3900 by the same token a Bitcoin takes out the 6.8 then probably has a a quick move down to the prior lows at 3350 3400 and then if that area breaks and likely new lows into the mid to low 4 mm I'd imagine so again that's gonna do it hey well we got someone new in here what's up Julius good to meet you man Julius brand Randall brandy what's up man good to meet you man and and I do you want to also say hey happy Valentine's Day I probably will unlikely be on later say unless if there is price action which it actually does feel like this thing's pretty damn mature and is ready more in a more literal sense for the lower timeframes to be very clear so again you know I probably won't be on later say I might do a little bit of an earlier stream but I would like to also go out to dinner later tonight I'm gonna enjoy a nice little nice little night so again guys wishing you a well a well and a well in restful Thursday Thursday afternoon or whatever time it is in your part of the in your part of the world I hope that hope that I hope that that's all the I hope that I can speak fucking properly Jesus Christ man it's like I'm assaulting your ears with just mumbling and in bad words but hey again pleasure to speak with you all and I look forward to seeing you guys soon I'll be back on if not if not later today then then tomorrow for sure look for T seen guys there and take care

43 thoughts on “Bitcoin BLOODY Valentines?! February 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis”

  1. Cannot believe more longs than shorts!!! PS if we get price action and you need to leave dinner early, that could be the only action you’ll see tonight 🙂

  2. Do you need assistance in anything? Can I provide you with help in any way? -desperate millennial who’s looking for an opportunity from someone he believes in.

  3. Really weak follow through on the bullish move, especially compared to other recent rallies. Everyone is trying to buy lower. It's going to take a couple days of upward movement to get up past 4k, then fomo cool off. IMO

  4. No dislikes as of 8:05 EST. It looks like Jamie Dimon and his buddies finally stopped hittin' that good ole' dislike button…Mornin' Krown!

  5. Damn – 7 Fucking things why it's not looking like a bottom! Are you making this shit up? LOL Thanks Eric. ( I need a fucking bigger notebook and I'm not even doing your course yet! )

  6. Happy Valentine's Day. I hope you and Elsa have a nice dinner. I'll be cooking me and my 3 dogs a nice Valentine dinner. Sad but true.

  7. Love it. So many ppl talking about BULL move pending based on weak TA….refreshing to see some realism grounded in brilliant analysis.

  8. All I wish for today is that you and Elsa have a great time! Take some time off the charts Krown! You've earned it by giving so much to the crypto trading community!

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