A couple of more years of bull market ahead: Ken Fisher


NEW NEGATIVE BAD THAT COMES OUT OF NOWHERE AND A REAL GLOBAL TRADE WAR IN HUGE SCALE COULD DO THAT BUT THIS IS JUST PEANUTS. NEIL: SO THE MARKET THE WAY IT IS NOW –>>DOUBLE THE BULL MARKET. I THINK WE GOT A COUPLE MORE YEARS OF BULL MARKET BECAUSE LOOK AT ALL OF THE WORRIES WE’RE FAR FROM EUPHORIA. WE’RE STILL IN A WORLD WHERE WE’RE CONTRACTING THE SUPPLY OF EQUITY. WE’VE EVEN GOTTEN TO WHERE WE HAVE NEW EQUITY OFFERINGS EXCEED BUYBACKS AND TAKEOVER, YOU KNOW, CASH BASED TAKE OVERS. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THE NEW ISSUE WORLD AND THE EQUITY BASED TAKEOVERS HAVEN’T CREATED SUPPLY INCREASING NORMALLY UNLESS YOU HIT THAT WALLOP OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, YOU GET TO WHERE EQUITY SUPPLY INCREASES, CONSISTENT WITH THAT. NEIL: THERE ARE POCKETS RIGHT?>>OF COURSE. AND EVERYTHING ABOUT CRYPTO WAS LOOKING INTO THAT. EUPHORIA WILL COME. IT’S A SIGN THAT IT’S ALIVE AND WELL IN THE SPRING AND WE WILL GET IT DOWN THE WAY, BUT IT’S NOT ACTUALLY. NEIL: WHEN YOU SAY TWO YEARS LESS OF THE BULL MARKET?>>DON’T HANG ME ON TWO. NEIL: I UNDERSTAND, BUT PERCENTAGE WISE IF YOU HAD TO JUST THROW A FIGURE OUT THERE HOW MUCH?>>YOUR MODEL CONFORMING BULL MARKET ON A GLOBAL BASIS. THE FIRST THIRD OF THE TIME AND THE LAST THIRD OF THE TIME ARE MORE THAN THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE TIME. THAT’S THE NORMAL. NEIL: WHAT’S THAT MEAN THEN?>>IT MEANS YOU GET ACCELERATION IN THE END, YOU GET A FAST START AND SLOW DOWN AND ACCELERATION IN THE END AND LAST YEAR WAS STRONG, I’D EXPECT AFTER WE GET PAST THIS CORRECTION, WE SEE AVERAGE RETURN IN A BULL MARKET YEAR OF WHICH WE HAVEN’T HAD THIS HAS BEEN A LONG SLOW GRIND ING BULL MARKET AVERAGE RETURN IN THE BULL MARKET YEAR IS ABOUT 20% THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS PEOPLE HAVE FORGOTTEN THE MAGNITUDE OF WHAT NORMAL IS IN A BULL MARKET. WE OUGHT TO GET MORE GOOD YEARS BEFORE THIS IS OVER BUT THEN LEAD TO THAT OPTIMISM THAT TURNS INTO EUPHORIA THAT HAS PEOPLE NOT THINKING IGNORING ALL LITTLE THINGS AND THINKING ABOUT THINGS ARE GOING TO BE PERFECT FOREVER. NEIL: DO YOU LIKE THIS TECHNOLOGY?>>I THINK TECHNOLOGY WILL BE BACK AFTER THIS CORRECTION YES. NEIL: FACEBOOK DOES THAT TELEGRAPH PROBLEMS FOR YOU?>>JUST THINK OF FACEBOOK AS ONE THAT MAYBE LAGS A LITTLE. I WAS LISTENING TO A PANEL YESTERDAY FACEBOOK KIND OF AGAINST GOOGLE AND GOOGLE WAS PLAYING THIS WHOLE PATTERN MUCH SMARTER THAN FACEBOOK IS BECAUSE THEY’RE REALLY SAYING THAT IT’S NOT OUR POSITION TO BE ENGAGED IN TRYING TO DO THE FIRST AMENDMENT SUPPRESSION WHICH LEADS TO A JOURNALIST THAT IS INVOLVED IN SAYING THAT WEBSITE IS ONE THAT YOU SHOULDN’T BE ABLE TO HAVE ACCESS TO OUR SEARCH ENGINE. THAT’S A SMARTER DIRECTION FOR THEM TO PLAY IN A HANDS OFF — NEIL: THOSE TWO YOUNG GUYS NEED SUPERVISION –>>I THINK THAT THE WORLD WE LIVE IN TODAY IS UNFAIR COMPARED TO THE WORLD WE GREW UP IN. WHEN I WAS GROWING UP YOU DIDN’T GET VENTURE CAPITAL-BASED CEO’S WHO WERE KIDS. THEY HAD TO ACTUALLY HAVE PROVEN HISTORIES AND BEEN AROUND AND BEEN THROUGH THE WAR SOME IN THE WORLD OF THAT WHOLE ERA, YOU HAD VETERANS THAT HAVE BEEN TIME TESTED AND TIME TO MATURE IN THE REAL WORLD, WHEN YOU BECOME A CELEBRITY BIG BANG CEO IN YOUR 20S, YOU BECOME ISOLATED FROM THE WORLD. NEIL: HOW DO YOU THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP IS?>>PRETTY WELL. PERFECT, NO, DO WE GET PERFECT PRESIDENTS? NO. IS HE UNUSUAL BY ANY STANDARD? OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE ECONOMY IS DOING OKAY, OVERALL, IF A DIFFERENT REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT HAD PICKED HIS JUSTICES PEOPLE WOULD THINK THEY’RE GREAT. FUNDAMENTALLY HE’S DOING OKAY. NEIL: THERE’S A THOUGHT REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO LOSE THE HOUSE, YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE BUT DOES THAT ENTER INTO YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY WHOSE CONTROL IN CONGRESS?>>YEAH, SO I LOVE GRID LOCK. I’VE ALWAYS LOVED GRIDLOCK. AND IT HURTS CAPITALISM. WE HAVE A FORMER GRIDLOCK NOW THAT WE’RE NOT CONVENTIONALLY USED TO WHICH IS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY FRACTURED SO NOT MUCH HAPPENS AND YOU GET THE CLASSIC REPUBLICANS THAT WON’T STICK WITH THE CORE. THE REPUBLICANS HANG ON TO THE SENATE I THINK IS EASY TO SEE. JUST LOOK AT THE RACES JUST LOOK AT THE EIGHT DEMOCRATIC SEATS UP IN REPUBLICAN STATES IS GOING TO BE VERY HARD FOR THE DEMOCRATS. NEIL: THEY MIGHT PICK UP.>>YES, IN THE SENATE AND IN THE HOUSE, IF THE DEMOCRATS WERE TO TAKE THE HOUSE YOU REVERT TO THE TRADITIONAL FORM OF GRIDLOCK. NEIL: YES.>>IT’S NOT WHAT THE FOX VIEWER TRADITIONALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE BUT IT IS THE GRIDLOCK THAT HAS ADVERSE FEATURES AGAINST CAPITALISM. THIS ADMINISTRATION ISN’T ABOUT TO RAMP UP. NEIL: YOU’D BE SURPRISED WHAT FOX VIEWERS THINK REAL QUICKLY REAL ESTATE.>>I WAS 10 FEET FROM JEFF Z UCK ER. NEIL: DID YOU DEFEND US?>>IT WASN’T MY PLACE. I WAS I WASN’T INTERVIEWING HIM, BUT BOY OH, BOY OH, BOY YOU TALK ABOUT AN OPINION. NEIL: HIS OPINIONS ARE SOUND AND VALID.>>HE SAID LITERALLY, FOX HAS NOTHING ON PASS. EITHER WAY YOU DO IT IS NO GOOD. NEIL: LET ME REAL QUICKLY, REAL ESTATE WHAT DO YOU THINK OF REAL ESTATE RIGHT NOW.>>WHAT KIND OF REAL ESTATE? IT’S NOT ALL ONE THING. NEIL: RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE.>>I’VE GOT TWO VIEWS ON THAT ONE IT’S A BULL MARKET. TWO THE PRICES ARE GOING UP. THREE, THEY’RE NOT GOING UP AS MUCH AS PEOPLE THINK THE TAX CHANGES, A MORTGAGE IMPACT, BUT THIRDLY, I’VE WRITTEN COLUMNS ON THIS IN USA TODAY, TWO OF THEM WHICH GOT SOME OF THE MOST HOSTILE REACTION HUGE REACTION AND HOSTILE CONSISTENTLY WHICH IS THAT PEOPLE DON’T ACCOUNT FOR THE COST OF HOME OWNESHIP CORRECTLY AND WHEN YOU PULL ALL OF THE COSTS IN, HOME OWNESHIP RETURNS ARE NEVER AS GOOD AS PEOPLE THINK THEY ARE BECAUSE THERE’S ALL OTHER COSTS THAT YOU NEED TO BUILD INTO IT, AND SO PEOPLE OVERESTIMATE HOW GOOD AN INVESTMENT HOMES ARE AND I THINK WE’RE GOING TO SEE IN THE PERIODS AHEAD HOMES BECOME A WORST INVESTMENT THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST. THE FUNDAMENTAL REASON FOR A HOME TO BECOME MORE VALUABLE IS IN NOMINAL TERMS RISING INFLATION OR WE’RE BUILDING FAMILY FORMATION FASTER THAN WE’RE BUILDING HOUSING STOCK AND FOR A LONG TIME, WE’VE BEEN BUILDING HOUSING STOCK FASTER THAN FAMILY FORMATION AND IN A LOW INFLATION ENVIRONMENT, THOSE TWO DON’T PLAY FOR HIGH RETURNS. NEIL: INTERESTING, VERY GOOD CATCHING UP WITH YOU.>>GREAT TO SEE YOU. NEIL: GIVE MY BEST TO BANNON WHEN YOU SEE HIM AGAIN. KEN FISHER REGARDLESS OF YOUR

14 thoughts on “A couple of more years of bull market ahead: Ken Fisher”

  1. If the bull market continues it will come at the expense of massive inflation. This dude is not explaining the whole picture…who cares if the stock market keeps on rising if our cost of living is rising each month.

  2. We don't have euforia in the markets, therefore the bear market cannot start. Who finds this argument convincing?

  3. Billionaire investor wants you to keep pumping money in his investments while he leaves out the back door.

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