170: Jim Rogers on Investing in 2019 and the US Debt Problem

welcome to the economic rockstar podcast with your host Frank Conway connecting brilliant minds in economics and finance hello Frank combi here and thanks very much for joining me once again on the economic rockstar podcast in this week's episode I am so honored to have jim rogers join me today and some of you from the investment world might know jim rogers and may have some of his books or have read about him or even have seen him on TV such as bloomberg and CNBC jim rogers is an an American businessman and financial commentator based in Singapore he is the chairman of rogers holdings and Beland interests Incorporated in 1973 Jim co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and having retired at the age of 37 after a number of successful years with quantum Jim spent some of his time traveling on a motorcycle around the world a Guinness World Record and one which is documented in investment by Kerr an international best-selling book written by Jim he has also been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia Business School in 1998 he created the Rogers international commodities index and has been an outspoken advocate of agriculture investments between 99 and 2002 Jim set off again around the world for a second time and on this occasion with his wife who did another Guinness World Record journey traveling 116 countries in a custom-made Mercedes he wrote adventure capitalists following us around the world adventure in 2007 he moved to Singapore due to the investment growth potential in Asia and in this conversation with Jim he shares with us some excellent advice on how you should approach investing on what the next 10 to 20 years could turn out for the global economy he suggests a North Korea Russia and agriculture are contrarian bets that will have positive payoffs for those of us willing to go against the crowd I also asked Jim about his views on cryptos and blockchain and whether he has any advice for you if you feel stuck in your job or if you are undecided about what you should do if starting out on your career and if you want to check out all the box links and resources mentioned by gem in this episode please check out economic Rockstar calm forward slash jim rogers and thanks again for continuing to support the show by pressing play downloading and listening to this podcast over the last twelve months and i'm so grateful for all the new listeners who found a podcast and are checking out the back catalog of episodes and again support the show by sharing downloading and even subscribing to the podcast on your favorite podcast platform i hope this episode rounds off a nice year for you and get you thinking for a year to come 2019 they all have a happy christmas and a peaceful and prosperous new year so enjoy this episode with jim rogers many many many people just listen to their friends or hot tips or the internet or TV or something please do not do that you're gonna lose money if that's the way you invest but one thing one of the best things i can tell you is do not have a lot of debt and try to stay away from people that have a lot of debt if you have a business try not to sell to people who have yet because if they get in trouble you have trouble so that's that's the main thing hi Jim welcome to the economic rockstar podcast I'm delighted to be here Frank nice to see you it's an absolute pleasure and it's been a long time coming that I've wanted you on the podcast I reached out to you about almost four years ago and I'm so delighted that this has come to fruition now well I am q Frank how many four years is a long time to wait I have your number of your books I followed what you were doing when I first got into trading oh I must have been only about 12 years ago and trading our commodities and yeah I suppose I'd love to know where you're coming from in terms of how you got started because in your bio you didn't have as you mentioned you didn't know how stocks worked or how to trade stocks and then you ended up being a one of the most successful commodity traders well Frank I do a lot besides come out I do stocks bonds currencies of yes some people seem to know me as a as a commodity person but I all my career I've done everything so yes we can talk about commodities or talk about anything you want oh fantastic so how did you get into trading well I didn't high I was when I was a senior at university I was going to go to law school and business school in medical school I was confused young man like many many other people so one day I went down to the office at my university that came and interviewed students see if they want a job I interviewed several people for the experience one of them happened to be a on Wall Street and I liked him and he liked me so he offered me a summer job and I said it's fine but when I went to Wall Street Frank I didn't know anything about Wall Street I knew it was in New York I knew something bad had happened in 1929 I didn't know there was a difference in stocks and bonds I knew nothing but I got there and I soon fell in love because here was a place that would pay me to follow my passions which was what was going on in the world and figure out the world and they'd pay me a lot if I did a good job so I didn't go to medical school I didn't go to law school I didn't go to business school I went to Wall Street as soon as I could but I was a great move and it was soon after that you met with George Soros oh yeah – 2 or 3 years later yes yes yes how did you connect her did you find conversations with one another very invigorating or did you feel that you needed that he had something common that was quite unique to you well first of all Frank that was a 47 years ago might as well ask me about my first wife you know it's a long time ago we certainly got along we we worked well together and we were you know we were there together for 10 years or so and had a reasonably good good performance you said of quantum the Quantum Fund but George the still exists anyway and it's in some form or another oh yeah as far as I'm well no I think he it's just his own family money now I don't I think he closed it as a public fund year or two it I don't know you can look it up I don't pay that much attention but the fund did go on for many years yes then you decided to take this worldwide roadtrip which when I first came across that I was quite fascinated that you could actually do something like this and you did it to her twice anyway well one since I was a teenager I used to say I really want to see the world I want to go around the world my motorcycle now I had no clue I actually was going to ever do it I thought it was just teenager young young man talk but when I retired that was the first thing I wanted to do was to go around the world on a motorcycle which was impossible in the 80s you may remember the Soviet Union and Red China and stuff like that but I set out to figure out a way to do it and lo and behold I did it huh and then that wasn't enough so when around the world again in a car but it's a lifelong dream of mine to see the world you know to see it close to the ground and so I didn't to my shock and delight you must have been obviously focused and uncertain economics and finance related markets because you're coming from that perspective so you would have been able to see opportunities I was recently speaking to my previous guest Jennifer murders Murtagh she's Philly and she's in Uzbekistan at the moment as she sees opportunities and you actually came up in that conversation that I mentioned you travel the world and you had come across opportunities to buy a number of stocks in a stock market in a stock exchange when you visited some countries well yes I mean the nature of who I am I mean I could go through a country and say oh guys that's nice the fields are nice the monuments are nice etc but when I see something you know because I've been investing all my life I see something promising then I don't just say hello I stop us do some research and open make an investment if I find that things are going to be good but I guess that's the nature Who I am I tell that to people and most people explain to me they just don't think that way you know if they see something they say gosh look at that and that's about the end of it but if people learn to be a little more attentive to what they see they might wind up making investments and they might be successful usually people make a mistake and still have this herd-like mentality because we feel fairly comfortable in crowds and we're going to sensation as headlines that tend to give us maybe stock market picks such as abbreviations like fangs and it's when people are all well usually when people are all in that's perhaps where you have to make a contrarian decision as to go against the crowd which is a very difficult thing to do how do you weigh up situations like that well you've said an important thing it is difficult to go against the crowd everybody knows that including me I have learned in my life it's usually best to go against the crowd even if you don't know what's going on I'd rather go against the crowd and with the crowd but especially if you do some research you will probably wind up going against the crowd because most people have not been successful following other people but I don't just go against the crowd to go against the crowd I then when I see them all going one way I do some research to see if maybe they're wrong and they usually are but I I once I've done enough research to know or think that I know I think that I know that I'm right then I then I invest one of your decisions was to move to Singapore was something similar in terms of seeing the opportunity before anyone else did well I can certainly tell you when I told people in New York I was leaving for Singapore first most I've never heard of Singapore if they had they thought it was in China and they certainly not could not conceive that somebody would leave a good life in New York to go to Singapore wherever it was and whatever it was but I had done again I'd done some enough traveling and enough research to know that Asia was the 21st century is going to be the century of Asia especially of China and so off we said we came to we looked at many Chinese cities most of them were too polluted so we wound up in Singapore I want my children to speak Mandarin is the short answer and so he moved to Singapore because I know that Singapore I mean I know that Mandarin is going to be extremely important in the 21st century yet when I read that first or number years back I decided to one of my son I said look of real enroll in some Mandarin classes because I got the advice from one of your books he didn't take it too lightly at all well one of the things I've learned is if you pretty much have to make them do it you make them if they if they start doing it very early they don't know they just think well that's what everybody else does too and so they they go along with it you know if I had been if I had a 14 year old girl or 14 year old boy and I said let's take many classes I'm sure I would have had a gigantic opposition and probably not success but some if they start when they're babies I don't know what's going on they just think this way the world is so true maybe five or six was even too offered us given that ya know it was given up a Saturday morning to do no you're exactly right and one of the reasons I moved to Asia was because I ran into so many people especially Chinese who said that when they were kids their parents spoke to them in Mandarin sent them to Saturday classes for Mandarin etc etc and when they were about eight nine ten years old they just rebelled they refused to do it anymore because it wasn't cool and so I realized so if I'm serious I better take her to a place where she has no choice but to speak Mandarin and so I did so he didn't have any choice and I had another little girl born here in Singapore she – she just grew up thinking well this is the way the world is I've got a father who doesn't speak Mandarin but everybody else does and so I mean they both now understand and they both realize and they're both becoming stars because their Mandarin is so good Jim I don't necessarily go looking for stock market tips or anything like that I don't do that but do you want to have a discussion maybe I'm what's going on at the moment regarding seek economic or political cycle and how we might affect and stock markets or commodity markets and what we might anticipate in the future well it's been over ten years I'm going to use America since it's the biggest economy in the biggest market since America's had a recession or a bad stock market a bear market now that's the longest in American history doesn't have to go bad between you know in ten years or less but it always has throughout throughout history we've never had a expansion that's lasted this long so just on the odds we're overdue for something to go wrong and it is going to go wrong it's probably going wrong right now as we speak the problem is Frank we usually don't know these things until later in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt but nobody knew what Iceland was if they paid attention and so then Ireland went bankrupt and then Bear Stearns went bankrupt few weeks later a few months later then northern rock in the UK went bankrupt and then few weeks later Lehman Brothers went bankrupt well by then this is several months over a year but then everybody knew something was wrong and that's usually the way it works it starts where we're not watching and over a few months for years it snowballs it may we may already be in it I suspect we are I know I know we are in it you know we already had Latvia go bankrupt Venezuela Argentina Turkey you know there are plenty of signs out there of small places that nobody is noticing and they're not too significant starting to snowball and go bankrupt well it's going to work its way into the major markets it seems to be working its way there now maybe we'll have one more big rally but as far as I can see that's the end then we're going to have a very serious bear more a declining market a number of people have mentioned this already I know I wouldn't be an expert in terms of trading or anything at that but you do get this sense and us haven't lived it and haven't been being aware of it and maybe what keeps me in touch is my is that a lecture on some of the topics that deal with this type of thing decade contagion and Black Swan and events and things like that so I'm kind of grateful that I'm kept in or I'm being made aware to look out for signs or to even analyze analyze in a little way but then having to put your money where your mouth is is a very difficult thing to do well don't do it unless you know what you're doing that's the first thing I want to tell you many many many people just listen to their friends or Hot Tips or the internet or TV or something please do not do that you're gonna lose money if that's the way you invest wait until you know a lot about something do your homework and if you yourself know a lot about something then maybe you're making an investment but don't listen to me don't listen anybody don't listen to anybody except yourself do nothing yeah 100% agree that's why I said at beginning on that I don't look for stock tips or anything like that but just maybe have a discussion on things that's going on I'm one thing that's really we see at the moment is maybe falling or low prices and commodities I do the simulation game with some students masters level students and we we look at you know trading derivatives or equities and commodities and so on and I think it was back in October I just suggested am shorting oil but we got stopped out on a trade I think was about 72 dollars a barrel for WTI and hit a high of 75 but suddenly it's all the way down to over 47 now people might claim to have economic fundamentals associated with this type of pricing given the stockpiling of oil reserves by the US but these are just again headlines aren't they that tend to come to us and there may be more to it well first you've learned one of them a very important lessons about investing you might be right if you have the timing wrong you're still going to lose money you were right about oil clearly right just as right as you could be you were just timing was just off by two or three weeks if you had timed it a little later or if you'd been able to stay with the trade you'd have made a whole lot of money by now so that's a very important lesson to learn don't worry I've learned it many times and it's something I've learned as well ten eleven years ago again I got that sense of market stopping but I never closed on my positions and one of the trades I remember being in was in wheat I think we for something like 14 dollars a bushel and again this plummeted as we all know they what happened as a result of that so when prices are out at all-time lows or at lows people fear buying into them but they present opportunities if you if you do your research as you mentioned Jim well there's no question uh but again I want to repeat first if you don't know what you're doing don't do anything don't just go following your hot tips or your instincts or something do your research but a very very important thing we all have to learn is that you've got to go against the crowd and when you're terrified it's probably a good time to win everybody else is terrified anyway it's probably a good time to invest just as when everybody is exuberant it's a good time to go short you know you you in short oil try it anyway because there and the reason I don't know if you understood this but the reason it was up was because everybody was so enthusiastic and positive about oil the mood was bullish well you were right again so you were right but you have learned the lesson of timing which I have learned many times Jim what is it like in Singapore right now in terms of the vibrancy of people and the confidence starts going on in the economy there or even the local economy around you well Singapore is still doing well things have slowed down a little bit I mean nothing like they've slowed down in some other countries for instance but people I get the sense that people know Oh guys something might be going wrong something might be going wrong and maybe we better get worried too but I mean there's nothing like Latvia or something where everybody's very despondent and and and down or Argentine or a turkey or some of the other places where you know it hits you in the face every time you walk out the door but people in Singapore seem to feel maybe something's going wrong starting to go wrong okay is it because they were is this a kind of an internal shock or would it be more so the influence of what could be happening in China well since we are close to China and there many Chinese here of course it they yet part of that from from from just their friends up the rope and her up the road you know up in China so yes but it's not just in China things in Malaysia or seem to be softening up our neighbor the neighbor Indonesia things to be softening up so it's starting to happen and it seems to be happening many places what preparations would you have in place if Annie and they in this case of something happening say perhaps this real estate or and commodities or investments and equities or bonds well first everybody should not have much debt because in my view the next time we have a problem it's going to be the worst in my lifetime it's going to be very bad because that has built up so much all over the world so the best thing one thing one of the best things I can tell you is do not have a lot of debt and try to stay away from people that have a lot of debt if you have a business try not to sell to people who have debt because if they get in trouble you have trouble so that's that's the main thing the second thing is please do not do anything that you don't understand don't listen too hot don't listen to me don't listen to anybody I know but if you know something that you know a lot about and you know it's a good place to put your money do so because one reason is because when it started when things started going wrong Frank people don't know what to do if they don't know why they bought it in the first place and then they things started going wrong they don't know what to do when things start going wrong so it's very important to only invest in what you yourself know a lot about but don't invest that's true yeah keep keep money in cash even even though you know for long-term that could the purchasing power could fall but true don't invest yes but I will say yes and having cash over the many decades is probably not the right thing to do but it's better to make one percent on your money than to lose five or six percent every year or more so I would urge you to try it if you don't believe me it's better to be solid and sound especially in bad times you can get through bad times when everybody else is suffering you're really gonna make a lot of money on the other side I just wonder how the central banks could react to another situation where there are high levels of debt and it can't be repaid because the monetary policy easing that they've gone through ten years ago or over the last number of years may not be as effective anymore in Des Moines don't have the tools to solve them policy order to respond to this you're going to find that the central banks are going to as things get bad they're going to try to do something and every time they try to do something that the markets will rally for a while or stop going down but it's not going to work because right unfortunately you do remember in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt well since 2008 the dead everywhere has skyrocketed the central bank in America's balance sheet alone is a five hundred percent in ten years I mean these are if I had said this sentence anywhere in the world 25 years ago people would have called up put me in the nuthouse because it couldn't happen it cannot happen but it has happened so we need to be very worried about all of this debt and whenever the central banks try to try to do something and they will try that's what they think they're supposed to do usually they do the wrong thing they will do the wrong thing again and things will get worse do not be had you not be complacent the death typically coming from China well said the American central bank alone has increased its balance sheet by 500% so the main culprit is the US but you know China too has built up a lot of debt in 2008 when the China had a lot of money say for a rainy day it started raining and they started spending the money and help save the world unfortunately now China has that too nothing like America say on a per capita basis or GDP basis but China has a lot of yet – so that's one less person one less country to come and save the world next time around and by the way China in Beijing they have been trying or they are making people cut back on their dead and that's one reason things are starting to slow down around the world Jim I say recently I've been looking at gold I'll be no gold there's only so many so much gold available out there that's in storage and there's the bullion website that sells gold but they're stored for you for a fee whatever it is one and a half percent per annum how do I know if I was to buy this gold and I don't received a physical quantity just say I wanted up by say 400 ounces of gold and I don't have the physical quantity and I wanted to actually cash in or I wanted to get the physical gold is this something that could cause a problem with everybody tries to cash in and and take their physical gold how do I know old – I am just putting money in her Ponzi scheme well even if it's a genuine website well first of all you've said some dangerous things you said how do you know don't do it if you don't know I repeat if you don't know don't do it certainly you should do a lot of homework on anybody you're talking about giving me 400 ounces of gold there's a lot of money you're talking about giving somebody a lot of money and if you don't know them and haven't done a lot of research please don't do it give it to me I promise you I'm a better a better risk than they are no no you must be extremely careful especially with lots of money like that and especially with something that you don't know now many people have not been because they're not many but that most of the people who do this sort of thing will give you an audit you can get an audited statement about your goal that is actually there then it's actually yours just be very careful the world is full of stories history is full of stories full of stories Frank what people have done just what you said giving somebody a lot of money and found out later oh my gosh now my broke it's always empty but in matter many people don't start out as crooks but then that yet you know you're tempted by lots and lots of easy money and so just be very careful because there's that's it world is full of stories where people get broke because they don't do the right thing but see the gold that I have if they if an order does done how do I know that someone else doesn't have the piece that I have well that's what an order is for now yes you're exactly right but if it's a proper auditor they will be able to say that they we can check the company's accounts and the company's accounts show 10,000 ounces sold and 10,000 ounces in the vault chances are everything is okay but you're exactly right somebody can say what we've sold 10,000 ounces here are the 10,000 ounces do a very good game of changing the books and later on you find out well guys they've actually sold 30,000 ounces and put the rest of the money in their pocket I cannot emphasize enough please do your homework no matter what you do with your money otherwise do nothing with it except put it in the bank Jim you retired at the age of 37 this is something that well you're retired from a quantum fund and the work the work that you were doing but you're still active in trading so that's obviously it's still seen as retirement because you enjoy doing this type of work or it wouldn't even call it work would you I don't call it work is for me it's fun and that's something else people should learn I tell University kids all the time they say what should I study and I try to tell them just figure out your own passion and study what you love then you'll never go to work you'll wake up every day and start having fun so please don't listen to your parents your professors your friends do what you love and do that and you'll never go to work a day in your life and those using the people are most successful because they're having so much fun and even if they're not successful they don't care because they're having fun they're happy you're enjoying Singapore you're you're gonna be there for the near future yeah I get hit over the head or something no no no no I'm I'm very keen we're all mark my kids like it here my wife likes it you know we're all quite happy being in Singapore see in some countries say for example Russia where not many people would talk fondly of the Russian market personally I don't even hear any discussion on the Russian market but is this something it like in this situation if you do your work and people aren't into that market just yet could that be seen as an opportunity to go into compared to the States yes that's well the United States stock market is that altar near all-time highs as you point out or as I point out down maybe 10% now but Russia's hated very very very few people invest in Russia Russia has not been booming Russia's in the market is not at all-time highs that is sometimes a good place to go it's always a good place to investigate often it's a good place to invest but nobody's there and it's cheap but something can be cheap and stay cheap a long long time just because it's cheap doesn't mean you should invest there there has to be a reason to invest there and some of the similar countries around the stands Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan that are growing from a low base if you want to say say load gdp per capita basis rather zip the neighboring countries or the Western economies and some people may see opportunities there do you see something similar or how did you experience your trip control some of those countries well when I went through the first time he was so part of the Soviet Union so there weren't many great opportunity I could see the potential huge natural resources huge natural sources no debt I mean nobody would lend money to the Joseph Stalin I took Nikita Khrushchev nobody would lend money to any of those ex-soviet States so there were opportunities but not much I could do about it the second time of course you can see that they gotten rid of communism and there were were opportunities most of those countries did not have stock markets back then and I mainly invest in stock markets but it was Pakistan which you mentioned is you know it's been beaten down ruined by the by the dictators probably fantastic opportunities there but not really stock market opportunities and I mainly invest in markets but sure if you want to go through this Bacchus dinner Kazakhstan has gigantic opportunities right now for anybody who wants to go and they in Southeast and I guess the stock market – so if you want to go there and do it North Korea go to North Korea North Korea is the most exciting country in the world right now as far as I'm concerned so go to North Korea go to Venezuela have you been to these countries yeah I've been to North Korea twice think of Venezuela a few times been to Kazakhstan at least four no at least six or seven times yeah but just cuz I've been there doesn't mean they're good investments and I have not invested in Kazakhstan but I certainly see plenty of opportunities somebody who's not lazy and somebody who knows what they're doing regarding North Korea was difficult to get entry into is did you have to be interviewed did you have to fill out a lot of papers well the first time we were going we had fill out papers yeah it wasn't it's not like applying for a visa in America or something nothing that complicated but we they actually we had permission and then they closed it and said that there were problems in North Korea with the harvest and so they weren't allowing people to come but the next year we did go fill out the babies and they and everything went fine with him there were no tourists there we were essentially by ourselves my wife and I when we went but we went to see thee they have something they put on games every year gymnastic exhibition which is the most extraordinary human scene I've ever seen there's nothing quite like it I mean a hundred thousand people it's just astonishing what they can do of course they don't have anything else to do when kazakhstan is not a saw that going down to the to the beer hall and drinking all night or the disco or something so yes it was not easy we did we did get in they cancel went to next year and it was a great time and in 2013 I went again this time I went by myself because I was looking and still am looking for opportunities in North Korea unfortunately at the moment Americans are not allowed to go to North Korea at least the US government says they're not and I don't want to fight the US government so it's difficult for me but four people are not US citizens I mean my gosh get on the next plane you don't have to compete with the Americans when you like would you like to invest in an economy we don't have to compete with the Americans or the Japanese companies not allowed to go out in northern South Koreans great competitors are out of the market America Japan in Korea South Korea so go very little competition so they'll welcome an Irish man hey Charlie would by all means you should go that's good advice Jim because my sister is over in Hong Kong and again people they were saying suggestions who were look into North Korea well I I would suggest you get on the plane and go there not just look into it go I don't know what your sister is interested in or what she's knowledgeable about but you know if I go and open an Irish pub your bridge could be the first and only for a long time you'll have a boom on your hands I'm laughing here but you know that that's the that's the typical response that people may have you know you said there that at that that is gone a 500% 10 years ago you would have been laughed at but in hindsight welcome back and you know maybe 10 20 years time if I look back in this conversation I could say Jim you were 100% correct well I mean I know I'm correct but you try it out and we can talk in 10 years we can talk in 20 years Korea as it opens up North Korea is where China was about 1980 or 81 it's you know it's just opening it's open opening slowly but it's happening it's too late for me to invest in China in 1981 but Korea is where China was then and as Korea opens an open Korea United Korea will be the most exciting country in the world because you have 80 million people right on the Chinese border and the north and northerners have huge natural resources and they have disciplined sheep educated labor very cheap educated disciplined labor you combine that with the south with massive amounts of capital and know-how and expertise right on the Chinese board it's going to be fabulous Japanese are against it because the Japanese no they will not be able to compete with the United Korea but boy it's going to be very exciting so tell your sister to get on the next bus and go to North Korea especially do we sell Korea had evolved over the last number of decades you know the approaches they took on when the developed area and some other industries say for example they and suggested to LG to move from textiles to TVs and so on and that worked out for them extremely well so if they have supply very similar principles in the north they could – could as you suggested a boom in terms of economic growth there's no question about that you know as recently as 1970 North Korea was actually richer than South Korea communism ruins everything and communism ruined North Korea but it literally was richer than South Korea recently is there's 40 50 years ago so now the two countries together have a great future do you worry about some well don't necessarily phrased up because you might not worry at all would you be concerned for some countries who have neglected their industrial side of the economy and gone more for services because it seems to be more of a backbone in terms of economic growth and development no I mean it depends on what people are good at many countries in history have proven that if they do what they're best at then they will be successful countries whether it's coal or oil or cotton or or manufacturing or services Switzerland doesn't have much manufacturing in it some but not much but Switzerland is a pretty vibrant economy with lots of services so you can make it either way as Singapore Singapore has you know not much manufacturing it's a small country certainly has no land and no agriculture so if you find what you're good at and you emphasize what you're good at you will have a success regarding land and agriculture this is something that you would have said recently about buying into and you suggested that farmers could be the ones driving with the Lamborghinis and not Wall Street traders yes agriculture has been a disaster for 35 years or so you know the average age of farmers in America is 58 nobody wants to be a farmer in Japan at 66 Canada the oldest in recorded history Australia is 58 the highest rate of suicide in the UK is in agriculture you know you probably know lots of Indian farmers commit suicide it's a disaster more people in America study public relations than study agriculture so either we're not going to eat anymore and not wear clothes or something's going to happen to make agriculture more attractive we've had long cycles in history when the people in who made real Goods were captains of the universe and we've had long periods when they were disasters well we've had is a stir for a long time and then it's and now it is starting to change again in my view again I've noticed that in Ireland nobody wanted to be in farming and this is because of the Celtic Tiger the name that was put on us and there has been a decline and also the average age of farmers had gone up and people had left rural areas to go into urban areas or emigrate but then one stuff came about you he started a here I don't know whether to I just want to say stories but you did you like numbers for colleges agricultural colleges had gone up there was more young people wanted to get back at the farming and I think in a way the the recession that we've had when it came to the farm I could be wrong but when it came to the farming it was it more of a blessing and that people younger people went back to the farm well that's it as I said there are plenty of opportunities there now so if you don't like whatever you're doing anybody listening this show it may be and you like being outdoors or you like you know working with with real things you might consider going back home and becoming a farmer by yourself a formal learn how to drive by yourself a farm learn how to drive a tractor you could be very interesting and very exciting Jim have you ever been to Ireland oh yes yes let's see my first trip to Ireland was 1964 before you were born and I've been there many many times since and I'm quite keen oh no not you you you were assuming I was born after 1964 then or it's just yes I'm sure you are I'm sure you were of what you want is a wonderful play north and south I've have been to both yeah they're these very testing times at the moment regarding the border and the brexit that we have so there's again you know difficulties does or people anticipating what could happen next a you know you can early apply that the economic and political landscape as you would regarding stock markets should people prepare should be just wait and see and then react to it do we get overexcited when this hits headlines well you know the Irish had been there for suck two or three four thousand years doing quite well on their own I certainly think Brussels should get out of it London should get out of it too and you guys can figure it out on your own Ireland would be a much better place if you could run your own affairs rather than God knows Brussels they've messed up just about everything they've touched so I have confidence that the Irish you're going to figure this out one way or the other it's not going to be a great Irish war in 2020 don't worry that W of when you're on a 100-year anniversary actually to our Civil War yes yeah no well that's one reason I said 2020 Jim I'd love to know if you have any advice I know you've given us plenty here joining this episode but for somebody say a young graduate who is looking to work and I don't know trading investments whatever might be someone might have a an archeology background started happen to listen to this what advice would you have to figure out what you love if you love finance I'm bearish on finance finance gonna bein back water for the next twenty years or so but if you love it go do it do it do it do it and you'll be successful when I went to Wall Street it was certainly a backwater I didn't know it backwater I've let I'm glad I wasn't smart enough to know I just knew I loved it and it turned out okay so I would say the same to your archaeology graduate figure out what you love the most and do it if you want to be a gardener become a gardener don't listen to me people who love gardening have a passion their parents say we didn't raise you to be a gardener professors say oh my god we didn't educate you to be a farmer your gardener and your friends will all say what did you hear about Frankie wind became a gardener but you'll never go to work you'll be happy every day someday you'll be the garnet bucking a palace someday you'll have a chain of garden stores all over Europe they'll be listed on the London Stock Exchange to be the richest person you know and your parents will all say a both say you know we used to give you seeds when you were a child because we knew how much you liked gardening we could see your pretend your professors will say you remember how we encourage you to go into gardening and your friends will all call you and say oh my god we see the richest man we know we need a job Lily it'll turn out fine in the end and as I say and if you don't become the richest man your friends know it doesn't matter you're happy so what do you care that's exactly what I've read a book recently fell nice the founder of Nike and that's exactly what happened to him yeah he started having fun he helps he also got rich but yes I say if you don't get rich you don't care so true if you could time travel Jim and I step into the DeLorean a time travel what here would you like to go back to or who would you like to see I'd rather go forward let's see maybe I'm just thinking of you know maybe a 1815 when Europe was laid waste after the Napoleonic Wars and he is about to enter a century a very little war and a great prosperity great opening up it would be a good time to be 20 years old this is unless you were a fool you were gonna get very very rich especially if you're in the UK you know one time there in the 1830s or so the English Midlands had something like 80% of the machines in the world you know the Industrial Revolution was just starting and it was centered in in the UK and my god the amount of money they had an amount of business they had was staggering very I mean Chinese history here in the last 20 or 30 years has been somewhat comparable but nothing like what happened in the UK in the 1830s let me well that's a good place to start I think I'll stop there yeah yeah would you have a book that you'd like to recommend I'll put your books up on links for example investment by Kerr huh the ones I have are a ball in China I've had hot commodities and a gift to my children so I'll put those links up there for people to check out but do you have any book or books that you've mostly gifted or that you would recommend people to tap into well my most recent book is called street smarts ah yes I'm going to shame shamelessly uh recommend that but now it depends on your interest uh people often ask me if I'm teaching my children and investing no I'm not if and when they come to me and they want to learn about investing of course I will but I have learned that the people who learn the best and the fastest the people who are very interested in something you know if you're interested in back to garden if you're in gardening you're going to learn about gardening on your own even if I said take teach you every morning about the stock market you don't care you could go and learn about gardening so people it depends on their interest find the best books in your field of interest and do it then do more yeah it's a shame and I'm sure I've experienced this or maybe I I'm in it but when someone who gets certain education and end up in a field you're you're pretty much pigeon-holed you're boxed into that particular profession and you have to not that you have to put it's felt for majority people that that's where you're going to end up being and you need to live up to the expectations of that discipline or that profession and it's very hard for a lot of people to break away from but again as you said you know if you have a passion for something maybe pivot and look into that even as a in your own spare time and then you're ready to go go for us yeah I mean it's wonderful wonderful at the best advice you can give anybody is to do something like that and they'll be happy and successful does that say even if they're not successful we don't care because they're happy Jim can I ask you and one more kind of area of discussion on cryptocurrency if that's okay yeah so for example we've seen two all-time highs on some of these coins like Bitcoin and aetherium and like coin a year ago today and now they're at Ranade all-time lows Patrat pretty much lows and people are I get a sense of people are getting excited about this again is this something and I find it hard to understand I do understand in a way in my limited understanding of us how they work and why they're not waiter there but to get a fair value or a fundamental value on a coin because it's a lot of it's perhaps driven by speculation it's just something again don't buy your advice don't get into and unless your nose or where'd you come from in terms of cryptocurrency they're all going to go to zero yeah I wouldn't bother with them so did I make myself clear yeah there's no point asking any more on that then because you know going to zero yeah that's fine that's fine innovating yeah in my in my view people are wasting their time and money you know many of them already have gone to zero as you probably know Frank yeah many have disappeared already they're all going to disappear before this is over I was speaking to Kevin Kelley of Wired magazine a few months ago and pretty much said the same thing he wasn't well abolished at all on crypto or even on blockchain well blockchain is different I am optimistic about blockchain but not crypto let's say they're all going to disappear many of them already have disappeared and you're going to see a lot more to sue you're going to see them all disappear before it's over my feeling is that a government say maybe the US government could come up with some form of a coin that well it kind of anyway is out there because we pay a lot Goods using debit card or online transactions and where we don't actually transfer over the physical fiat currency but something that Venezuela was Venezuela that introduced your own the petrol coin people are already devoted because it they've moved that people savings into it to pensions and they're worried that it could go to zero well first of all blockchain is different from crypto currencies as I want to emphasize that but second there's no question that money is going to be on the internet already if you go to China people don't have money I tried to buy an ice cream the other day poor a woman couldn't sell me ice cream because I had money I had remember had Chinese money she couldn't take it she I had to give her my phone to put the little spot my little spot on her little spot what she could I didn't have the spot I had money she couldn't take money she gave me the ice cream in the end I wish I'd been buying a Mercedes or something but so money is disappearing China's far ahead of the rest of the world in this but and it's going to disappear but it's going to be government money it's not it used to be hundred years ago that you and I could do anything we wanted use anything we wanted for my seashells gold banknotes from any banquet because many banks printed their own banknotes back in those days but then in the 30s the Bank of England which was the most important bank in the world of time said it is now an act of treason treason if you use anything for money except our money well guess what people stop using other things for money because treason means they execute you if you're committing an act of treason so there will be money and it will be on the internet but it's going to be government money in the end and people people to the crypto guys say to me all the time we're smarter than the government and they are much more than the government but the government's got the guns I don't like I don't like the fact I don't like the fact that the government can control us that way and does control us that way the better if we could use anything we wanted his money but unfortunately governments don't like that and they've got the guns and we're gonna all play their way in the end Jim again I don't like yeah go ahead no it's going to say it's an absolute pleasure I think I'm going to take up too much of your time and I would love to keep going but I don't want to take advantage it's Riley is there anything else you'd like to part with her suggests just be careful very difficult times coming all over the world so everybody should be very careful get knowledgeable once you get knowledge but you're getting worried and once you get words do something to protect yourself that's great Jim thanks very much and a really appreciate your coming on you are an economic rockstar and if you want to but if you want to find out free if you want to check out all the links books and resources mentioned in this episode by Jim check out economic Rockstar calm forward slash Jim Rogers and I met actually say to jim them you're you're his name Beale and that's a middle name that you have is that I never came across it before well it's an old family name the belin has been around a long time they came from England I guess somebody at one point had beets I hope so I hope they had a lot of these because I was gonna say it's fairly ironic given that you're into recommending agriculture and it's like the land of milk and honey how do you I hope I hope okay Frank let's do it again sometime oh well thanks very much Jim thank you thanks very much all the best nice economic Rockstar is a free podcast that does not exclude anyone from listening as long as they have a device to listen download or stream I have many listeners from all parts of the world and I truly am pleased to know that the economic rockstar podcast unites all of you true the common theme of economics I strive to commit to releasing an episode 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14 thoughts on “170: Jim Rogers on Investing in 2019 and the US Debt Problem”

  1. I've heard once that the US government has shares in Apple, can someone confirm or neglect and provide me a source?

  2. Kazakhstan is becoming a container hub, believe it or not when there is no sea. Just because Europe and Asia use different rail gauges.

  3. Invest in China but live in Singapore to avoid the pollution in China.. so invest in pollution but live elsewhere…

  4. People should listen to Jim's life advice…not his investment advice. This time he will be correct in his market prediction. Love Frank's genuine curiosity and questions.

  5. In 2017, Rogers predicted the Largest Crash in our lifetime in 2017 or 2018. He said, "Write it down." So I did, and lol! What a joke!

  6. I am done with this idiot Rogers, because he literally says the same exact things in every single interview for years. Also he has been wrong for over 10 years predicting the timing of the crash. He is very vague and unclear about gold and silver he always says the SAME stupid thing. How HE already bought gold, if it goes down he hopes he is smart enough to buy a lot more. HE LITERALLY KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT CRYPTO CURRENCIES. and yet made a prediction that all cryptos will go to zero HE IS A TOTAL IDIOT because my favorite Crypto currency Dogecoin has always been 0.0021-0.0090 my best virtual currency has always been less than a penny BUT NEVER ZERO. this guy should just admit that he got rich because he worked with George Sorros. I am sure everybody who worked with George Sorros got rich. JIM ROGERS SUCKS STOP MAKING PREDICTIONS

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