? Why Gold Will Skyrocket If Recession Hits & How To Play It | Recession Watch

I Gregg welder here for a real vision and this is tech trader We’re gonna be discussing a big picture trade. We’re gonna break it down into a couple of different ways You might play it depending but futures of Canada trade the equities ETFs, whatever your preference might be We’re going to give you some options on this one, but it is big picture We’re gonna come back at you here on real vision with more of the big picture theme as to exactly why Fundamentally, you need to be involved into precious metals. I mean, I wrote my book gold trading boot camp in 2006 We kind of called, you know monetary Armageddon which at that point was you know fed Monetizing a treasury debt and printing money and having to bail out the consumer and someone and so forth stuff that was considered, you know Unthinkable at the time was not only thinkable it was done We see a similar situation developing here times ten like that situation on steroids a lot of differences admittedly, but a lot of Similarities the main one being if you have another wave of deflation risk Central banks are in a much weaker position here in terms of trying to do something about it But then that begets the question they always seem to have their backs against the wall and they come up with increasingly You know creative ways to print money and to stimulate the economies and to reflate to consumer and to avoid a debt deflation because it’ll cost that’s what central banks want to do right now is Avoid a debt deflation and they’re gonna be tested in the next 18 to 24 months. Really within the next three to five years like gold was at four and a quarter in 2006 very cheap tripling quadrupling in price same thing here. I would say gold at 1,300 here 1,400 now is about as cheap as it was then at four and a quarter. We’re gonna talk about The market in terms of kind of the currency dynamic because this is really important It’s the ECB the central bank that is really on you know on the hot seat here sitting on the hot seat I mean they have negative forty basis point of deposit right you really they’re pricing in another cut to minus 20 The problem is you get more and more debt in Europe and with negative Nominal Gill’s and you’re basically having you know consumers investors and savers paying governments to hold their money. This sucks money out of the They can’t let this stand the ECB is discussing. What would be a unprecedented plan another revolutionary type of monetary situation, that would be QE on steroids to deal with the deflation on steroids when you have economies that are really coming unglued quickly and you are Despite the fact that you have all these negative yields. It’s just not working. Something’s got to change Something’s got to give and it will and the ECB is gonna be at the forefront We’re watching the euro and keeping in mind that what comes next Outside of why we feel so strongly about precious metals could change the entire dynamic for bond markets for currencies and for stock index futures So we got to keep all that in mind and you know looking at that you look at the Euro I mean kind of on the verge here you had a little bit a rally in the Euro ran into overhead resistance Right where it should have and now it’s threatening to break down again. You know when the ECB potentially makes You know another kind of stellar or surprising pulls a rabbit out of the Hat monetary move You really could see some fireworks in the Euro frankly could be down first and then much higher even so we’ll keep an eye on all that and You kind of see the long-term picture I mean a move below 111 in the quarter would be really negative for the Euro would easily set up a test of the 103 to 104 level but really it comes down to gold because this is a situation where you know The euro is higher than the euro was lower the dollar was lower and now it is higher and at the end of the day gold is higher against all these Currencies because gold and the dollar link has broken down and now gold is where he wants to be in its sweet spot Appreciating against all paper currencies a rising concern about abilities of central banks to keep papering over these issues Rising mistrust and uncertainty around any paper any IOU. Io u–‘s currencies bonds They’re both how you use it’s the same thing backed by nothing and in a sense of gold and euro breaking out It’s a long-term break out you can see this above 1237 euro now You know pretending a move here at the very least to test the all-time highs set in 2012. If not violate them Probably significantly. So at the same time the the dollar Has kind of bounced again off the two year moving average I mean boom there boom boom here And you know and then again off the two year moving average and with this flattop of overhead resistance The problem here for the dollar is really when it comes down to the rate of change because right now you know you’re one year two year rate of change is about four and a half if you get this thing to break out and you get Back up to 104, you know the rate of change is going to accelerate and particularly the longer term rate of change the five year rate of change right now is threatening 20% and if you get above this ninety eight and a half level and you accelerate up through 104 that’s going to really extend the Appreciation of the dollar to the point where it starts to weigh on commodities it starts to bring emerging markets and currencies and bond markets and stock indexes back into the feds purvey as a Potential risk you have had five fed regional bank presidents in the last sixty days March out and they have all said the same phrase and that doesn’t happen unless it’s meant to happen and that phrase is they are concerned about the credibility of their inflation target and if that is true They cannot allow the dollar to break out because their inflation target is already somewhat You know being called into question With you know inflation 50 basis points below where they really could want it to be and now all of a sudden because inflation is falling, you know They’re not just neutral. They’re actually tight They’re gonna have to cut rates just to stay neutral So that you know is interesting and Really the reason we’re if the dollar were to look like it was breaking out and whether this might even be a sign of some Dollar debt issue globally turkey comes to mind almost immediately that would be even more problematic because it would be on the Fed to Be the one to act almost as the central banker to the world Which is I think a dynamic that is slowly kind of beginning to evolve here, too So in that case a dollar move up here would bring the Fed more aggressively into play And of course that would be positive for gold In terms of the ranee, of course And we look at the three currencies euro dollar and NIMBY But I mean again gold breaking out an Aussie dollar at record highs, you know breaking out against a lengthening list of currencies Okay. Now the room in me, I mean the room nippy had a rally here and then it’s had this big decline I’ll tell you what. I think the Chinese have played this trade situation Just very very well if their point here was we know we’re going to cut a deal but if we walk From the table we can get some depreciation in our currency and no one’s gonna say a word and that’s exactly what’s happened And when you get that depreciation and really it’s about kind of squelching the appreciation but if you look the appreciation of the renminbi Over the last 12 months had reached a new all-time high It was above 9% for a period of time on a rolling 12 month basis That’s problematic and in signing a trade deal then would have been equally problematic Now they’ve taken this kind of walk away plan and likely to come back to the bargaining table When they’re written in be kind of calm, you know, it’s depreciated to some degree The bigger question is can the renminbi depreciate through this 698 level? And you know, I think the answer to that longer term is yes But that means a higher dollar but this is really where you start not to care in terms of gold Because gold is rallying against all these currencies. Okay, the renminbi is up. The renminbi is down What is up and for short breaking out? It’s gold priced in Chinese renminbi and you see that here and you see that here on the long-term basis Where it’s you know above this 9,000 a rim Maybe a per ounce level and basically now targeting it’s all record highs around 12,000 room. NIMBY Now as it relates back to the dollar here is where it gets most interesting because the dollar has D linked from gold More importantly gold has D linked from the dollar and we see that in the sense that the dollar is almost that new highs here Almost breaking out. It’s appreciating 5% over the last two years When in the same time if the correlations had held gold would be between 1050 and $1100 It’s not it’s 1,400 and it’s breaking out and when you look at the gold adjusted value of the dollar index Which is very simply the dollar index divided by goal No rocket science here, but very telling is kind of a gauge of monetary policy and you can see you know A Fed got a little too tight in here dollar in gold terms was rallying it is now reversed It’s on the verge of a major breakdown the longer-term trend to the upside violated retested and now reviling and this tells us that the feds move here towards a easing bias is you know For real and they’re gonna you know, they’re gonna have to keep up with the timeline lay down the Fed Funds futures market But that’s a whole nother trade for another time. Bottom line here is dollar adjust My goal is breaking down on a long-term basis and is now down almost 10% on the 52-week basis That’s huge and very bullish in the backdrop. And we look at the long-term moving averages on the same dynamic You just crossed bearishly you want to talk tech trader. This is just pitiful stuff for long term tech trading You take the we have the two-year five-year and 10-year moving averages of the gold adjusted value of the dollar and This just rolled over to where the two-year move back below the five-year in May end of May So we’re talking five weeks ago major long-term secular stuff doesn’t whipsaw a lot now turning in favor of gold and against the dollar and Again, nice Yogi. Berra would be proud of Stasia vu all over again You know bottom line is the dollar has been it is now and will be even more So in the future the relief out, it’s just the way it is as the world reserve currency And now is that the Fed was among a few central banks actually Created some room for themselves to cut rates by raising rates that opportunity ECB really missed in the beginning of 2018 You know leaves this to the Fed and I think that this is really part and parcel of what’s happening in terms of gold breaking out despite the fact that the dollar is on the verge of its own breakout that couldn’t be more telling the Long-term picture here is very bullish for gold from a technical structure when you’re talking about the secular trends All right this decline I remember the days we were tracking when gold was flirting with 10:50 and you had this level the 50% retracement from the 1976 low the entire run from $100 to almost 2000 dollars You know right around as you might suspect the 50% level was 1050 How many days in a row on the candlestick chart on the daily candlestick? Did you have move below the 50% retracement during the day and it closed above it? It was uncanny how many days that happened and watching the market every day It’s such a tell there’s demand for gold below 10:15 My guess would be the Chinese were you know? Eating it up there and of course the statistics later on proved it was the Chinese that were buying they’re very astute traders So the long-term picture is then here’s your correction. You had ABC Fibonacci and you’re rolling back the upside Well, this is basically one two, three, four five Typical Elliott Wave dynamic more wave five has just been ignited, you know, we talked about ignition and here we have liftoff in gold So how do we want to play that well, if you’re not long any retracement down into this? I mean you guys you get below 1300 you get like a 1295 print it’s a kid from the gold gods. You got to back the truck up in that case I don’t know that you’re gonna see that. I don’t think you’ll get much below 12 65 to 1260 if you get a dip, I mean because this is a longer term break down breakout I mean so you know 13 45 would be kind of a last guest on the downside and then frankly I mean you get below 1290 then we’re wrong and then 1266 that risk, but I really don’t see it happening Not when I see stuff like this and here we get to the trade final. Yes right to the trade All right, the GDX gold mining ETF really like this here. I mean it is now breaking out. Look at this pattern. I mean it makes new lows This low is so unconcerned by any technical, you know momentum indicator You want to throw in you got the breakout you got the retest of the trendline that was violated I love this pattern 30 years in doing this I’m telling you one of the most reliable patterns when you get a long-term Trend breakout and it kind of seems like it’s running out of steam and it comes down It might even make a lower low, but it holds above the violated trendline That’s huge that retest on the backside particularly when it lays out right in the zone between the 50 and 61% Fibonacci retracements in the meantime you get back over the two year moving average Which is now accelerating the upside and making a new high in line with price a very bullish dynamic and this is long-term stuff Man here look at the 52-week and the and the two year moving averages crossing over here as well. Very bullish The GDX would be the trade here You know in the in terms of what trade we’re putting on here one of them GDX would be would be an option and Franco you just plow right in here because the risk/reward is still quite favorable what I love About this too is gotta have confirmation that the GTX could potentially outperform. That’s the whole reason for buying it And in this case the GDX breaking out against the price of gold This is huge Not only in terms of this, you know from the micro standpoint of this trade But for the sector as a whole it’s something we have not seen since 2016 and we have a long-term Retest that on the back end love that pattern break out in gold GTX mining against the spot price and not only that there’s a bonus here and we said this a few weeks ago in one of our daily reports that This would set up to wherever you you would actually get some rotation in the next phase of fed moving towards an ease within the stock market itself out of trend of the high-flying tech now that some of the top performers You know over the last 10 years And into the precious metals mining shares and you’re seeing it because you’re on the verge of a breakout in the GDX against the S&P 500 that would be massive Junior gold mining same thing looking at a breakout here a breakout here really confirming as of yesterday. We’re filming here on the 12th of July and you can see the action here on Thursday the 11th was very positive for the junior gold mining for the weekly chart to close above 3500 for that would be an option to I’d just like to straight GDX for now and In terms of then potentially, you know number the brave I mean you want a triple leveraged and you treat this like a call option be willing to basically risk every dollar you put in here because these things are notoriously volatile and you know, Whipsaw and there’s all kinds of different, you know crosswinds going on here But the nugget the nu GT would be kind of a call option or you know for risk capital you say none but the brave for the adventurous you would buy the nugget because this would give you great upside potential if you are willing to lever up and Understand the risk here understand the risk the risk here is you know basically as Much as you’re gonna buy this thing for it just have to look at it that way It’s the best way to manage the risk and then we come to silver because this really may be the opportunity We haven’t had participation from silver. It’s reflected in the fact that the silver the gold silver ratios at a 27-year high, okay silver is on the verge of a breakout. It hasn’t performed But that’s okay because this hasn’t been a monetary thing until kind of now So in that case we’re looking at 1555 and then you got 1565 the two year moving average These would be potential breakout pivots and certainly above 1620 that would constitute liftoff for silver which is sitting on the launching pad I mean look at this pattern you have a four year and making you know Multi-touch low below $14 between you really 1350 and 14 and a quarter. You even go back five years coiled and look at the look at the volatility, I mean that’s where it really gets interesting and the volatility and silver is that multi-decade lows in the long-term perspective the historic volatility which suggests call options could be a Strategic opportunity here as would be the si el the si el above. 28:19 would be a breakout and From that perspective above 28 night. 28:20 would be a long-term breakout with massive Bullish divergence a great technical setup here for the si el and our final bonus Okay We heard maybe You know our pick Silver miners breaking out against silver really keen want to see the mining shares outperformed the metals in both cases I haven’t seen that in a long time. All right, after a new low that was completely unconcerned Very rare on my trend kind of trend oscillator with the bottom line here is first majestic We picked first majestic as our top pick when we did our fourth quarter 2015 piece actually before this, you know Third leg to the downside and that was the out performer. We see the set up similar. It’s already broken out it’s still in a good risk reward position here at $10 your risk 850 and you have potential upside to $20 or higher the The F are traded in Canada. So gold – guru.com is the new website. We’re debuting Just to try and you know help people take advantage of this really what I see is kind of a you know Once in a ten-year potential opportunity here in the precious metals. That’s it for today. Greg welded for real vision You

64 thoughts on “? Why Gold Will Skyrocket If Recession Hits & How To Play It | Recession Watch”

  1. Real Vision – love your channel, but you are tarnishing your name when you start re-posting old content without making it clear in your labeling that the video is a repost. Very frustrating. Yes, after the fact, I read your disclaimer buried in summary wording
    , but most of us don't inspect the video summary before clicking on a video. PLEASE don't do this.

  2. Too many are buying gold as an investment rather than wealth insurance. Critical difference between the two. Until a recession is confirmed, gold rally is driven only by speculation. Gold generally performs better once we're in a recession until market confidence is restored. Until then, there are better opportunities out there.

  3. Anyone else think a big problem in Europe is actually fiscal policy, and that several of the nations don’t incentivize entrepreneurship and capital spending enough? Maybe tax cuts should be their move to drive inflation, since it isn’t occurring at negative rates.

  4. People are watching this not knowing this is more than a month old. It’s a disservice to viewers I think.

  5. The first thing you do is look at the description. If it's old there's no point in watching it. Just recession merchants anyway. This content has served it's purpose.

  6. Unfortunately i dont think the amount of gold in circulation throughout the world is enough to absorb the financial needs of wall st. There just isnt enough of it. Its atrocious what govts have been doing with respect to their currencies. Just 30 yrs ago i could trade 1 ounce of gold with 1 dollar, now i need 1300 dollars for the same

  7. Oh right you predicted the 2008 crash. How much money did you make? Gold plunged to $700. Did you buy at $700 sell at $1900? Have you been calling a gold bull market since 2008 like Peter schiff and missed the biggest stock bull market in history? Sure, adding gold now is a safe bet. Even Ray Dalio calling for adding gold to diversify.

    When 2008 happened and why were concerned now is deflation not inflation. All asset classes dropped and that’s what they’re afraid of most.

  8. Search this ? s YouTube account and look at his oldest videos from 2013 he says all the same and missed the whole trump stock run. Here he is touting gold few years back. Even dalio says add gold. But he isn’t calling it to double or triple. https://youtu.be/Nlr1Y31InQ4

  9. they are trying to pump up gold with re-uploaded content at the top knowing fully that next fed meeting will officially signal the top.

  10. More like the 70s stagflation to me Civil Unrest. Debt assets channel down Gold and silver channel up but all volatile.
    Gold was up aeound 2000% in the 70s and miners much more. Think too it caused large interest rate rises by and into the 80s. 18 percent housing loan on my first house. Hoe many presently can afford that?

  11. He called it right. Gdx not going up as much as gold on the basis of the gdx being versus gold. But he called it bang on because gold is way up from July 12th.

  12. Account for inflation and the chart from 1975 – 2019 would look a lot different. The 1980 gold price would be higher than the rest. Gold has to go to $2803 to equal a price from 39 years ago.

    Same with silver. Ride the wave by trading in options, but don’t buy into the hype of fiat being replaced by gold.

  13. THank them for even uploading it after a month.. Gold has barely moved by $100 in that period.. you can expect a pulback.. and this video clearly states "IF THE RECESSION HITS" WHICH IMPLIES THAT.. WE HAVE JUST STARTED TO SEE SOME SIGNS VIA BOND MARKET BUT there isnt any certainty to it.. so, slight pullback in equities and bonds yields will give us the opporunity to buy gold once again if it falls back to near $1430-50 levels.. and this long Gold video is for the long term .. not for short term swings.. basically, you gotta create a portfolio.. @THATRANDOMCHANNEL .. it isnt a disservice to the viewers at all.. if you want it live, then why not sucscribe to Real vision channel.. you ould be first in the group to get your hands on..

  14. Gold has lost correlation with equities, other traded metals, oil and bonds do you need to know anything else. 2020 sounds like a scary movie.

  15. Everyone who complains that this is dated should view it as a chance to see if this guy's forecast was on the money.

  16. Best thing everybody can do to support gold is to start talking in terms of ounce per $1000 instead of $/ounce.

  17. Thanks Greg. I love your energy, enthusiasm and knowledge to back up your ascertains. I which people in America would wake up and invest in PMs.

  18. I'll not subscribe if y'all don't clearly state REPOST .
    catch me once, my bas.
    Do it again = gone burger.
    Lose a subscriber = simple

  19. Do not be …. Long this market.!!! ..#1. buy the VXX and hold your position and ride the market down when it implodes. #2 Buy and hold gold and silver stocks . Wait till stock market drops about 40 % .

  20. Let’s get this straight first. You’re a good bug and would say anything to tout gold. Why not throw in the “milk shake theory” in while your at it. Good went down in the last Great Recession. Therefore the next “Recession on steroids” as you say will plunge gold on steroids. What it is is BS on steroids. Thx for the reminder on how whacky gold bugs become. Cheers.

  21. Trump is right, the Federal Reserve has tipped the planet into a crushing recession by raising interest rates too high too fast. Just listen to the news and read the newspapers. They agree with Trump for a change! The US needs a FEDexit October 31st just like the UK needs BREXit on the same date for the same reason — to save their economy. We know the he Federal Reserve has no idea what they are doing. They have just gone completely dark formally shutting down all communications with the public and the media!

  22. An inverted yield curve is a vote of no-confidence in long- term financial instruments. It comes with a bull-run in gold. The time is close for the appearance of worldwide wrath Revelation 11: 18. The EURO will collapse. Ezekiel 7: 19 Revelation 18: 17 Psalms 46: 4-6.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *