🔴 Recession Crisis Indicators Explored (w/ Raoul Pal)


I Talked to the brightest minds in the investment industry To find out the odds of recession and to determine how investors ought to position as a result. I Explained why I was asking the question in the first place and a piece called is recession coming Let’s pick it up where I’m taking a close Look at a curry, which is a weekly data series that I use to determine the economic strength of the business cycle so you see the chart here of Accrete with quickly GDP and you can see how well correlated it is It’s indicating that we’ve got some weakness to come. Ok So that’s the first interesting point Then I’d like to put the ikura against a number of other indicators that may be forward-looking and this is where it gets interesting I’m going to show you a whole series of charts now for you to look at So this chart is the cash freight shipments index You can see how dramatically freight shipments have fallen and how much they’re suggesting that the equity could fall from here and therefore the GDP as well Car loadings a similar way of looking at transportation. It’s collapsing capsule goods orders These are the big-ticket items the things that a lot of times you use Financing for or are involved in the global supply chains you can see how they are rolling over as well and Following Acree lower if you believe in this supply chain story and it seems to be bearing itself out in the press Almost daily Then you’ve got to imagine the capital goods orders are gonna come lower but households are also struggling with the with the rates So you’ve seen that and how much car sales have fallen so calf sales have languished and they’re expected to go further Clothing sales have collapsed in recent months as well, which has been an extraordinary move and restaurant sales as well have been extremely weak so your son to see not only is shipping and Moving Goods around week, but you’re also seeing a weakness in The consumer and a weakness in business expenditure another great global indicator. I’ve looked at is semiconductor sales semiconductor sales are extraordinarily weak right now and they too are suggesting the global business cycle has a lot further to fall back in the US we Also got the housing cycle it looks like that the The case-shiller house index is starting to weaken significantly And is now at the weakest level since before the previous recession And we also have weakness in house prices overall and construction so I’m concerned that all Parts of the economy are showing evidence of weakness And I know many people say well unemployment’s not unemployment strong Unemployment interestingly enough is the most lagging of all and indicators and just remember that every time the Fed cut rates and unemployment Is below 4% We went to a recession almost immediately afterwards They’re all lagging So don’t get trapped in the in the unemployment look at the forward-looking indicators and they’re looking problematic So that’s what I found in the u.s Then I took a look at the global data and found even more signs for concern particularly around Europe and China That’s how I determined that based on the data The whole world looks to be rolling over at once now some of you might be thinking So what it’s about time had a mild slowdown, but there are two major issues here debt and demographics It could lead to a massive adverse event that I refer to as the doom loop and it’s dramatic But here’s my summary of the chain of events that we could see phase one the business cycle weakens credit begins to widen corporate cash flow worsens our tad and shares fall and volatility increases I think that’s where we’ve got to now I think phase one we accomplished and it started really in about October Phase two the business cycle weakens again credit widens more cash flow gets worse as do profits tax receipts fall and state pension funds Stop buying debt big triple B stocks fall and bonds fall even more sharply equities fall hard So I think this is the next phase and I think it’s coming after the summer. We’ll wait and see my forward-looking indicators suggest that the Europe has a sessi up cycle right now. There’s a bit of stabilization of data I have a feeling that if I’m right about the debt ceiling or the dollar breaks higher Then I think we’re going to start to see Phase two come in when we start seeing phase two We know where this is going because then the story becomes very clear face one was the alarm bells face – they strap yourselves in Okay, let’s go into Phase three. This is when things get ugly the baby boomers start to panic to get out of equities permanently There’s downgrades of triple beats junk The EU banks can’t take the funding stress and the ECB and the government step in credit spreads explode credit seizes up entire lists pension Funds are forced sellers on downgrades equities going to tailspin. There are no natural buyers credit widens dramatically offered only no bids junk bond market Overwhelmed pension funds get to trouble defaulting on obligations big famous companies are being forced towards bankruptcy Unnecessarily, that’s the really ugly phase and that’s the one where I Think many of us have got a sense that there was an endgame That’s at the end of all of this If there is one it lies in the heart of that but that we get there or not It’s gonna be a function of what the Fed does and what the central banks do and how they deal with this And there’s many outcomes for that and it is not going to be a straight battle But all I do know is these things tend to accelerate much faster So now that we know just how much rides on the recession question. Let’s try and get some answers Straight off I talk to Laxman Atta Shan, who is the co-founder of ecru? He was really helpful in helping me interpret exactly What the date was saying the way I would sum that up visa vie like is there a recession? somewhere on the horizon is that We’re slow walking Toward a cyclical window of vulnerability now many people think Recession is the result of some shock. You know, somebody did something wrong or something happened that nobody could have predicted and that’s why There was this recession some negative shock And that’s not how recessions are made. We’ve been studying this for longer than I care to admit and the way our basic the crux of our finding is that There’s an endogenous cycle which is being tracked by good cycle indicators including leading indicators, which can Tell you if you’re in a downturn or an upturn now We’re in a downturn and we’re looking at the forward and leading indicators to see how that downturn is likely to progress if we begin to see a window of vulnerability opening up which would mean that our indicators are are Falling in a in a much more pronounced pervasive and persistent way than they are currently then virtually any negative shock any of the things that have occurred over the last half a year can become a Recessionary shock when I talk to Teddy ballet. He echoed that point about a window Vulnerability do you think the u.s. Goes into recession? It’s a tough call given the information we have if it does happen it would happen from now to June next year There’s never been a higher probability this cycle for the u.s. To go into recession because one we’ve had a tightening cycle 2015-16 we never had a tightening cycle in the US. It was just a trying to drag now We have a tightening cycle and a china drag that’s really pulling down the data and we have not seen it pick up I understand trade tariffs And now you have the trade coming in perhaps this window Vulnerability idea also helps us make sense of some of the recent Central Bank policies we’ve seen in fact according to Christopher Lee Ari the Fed and the rest of the world central banks are doing Anything they can to forestall a recession in this tender moment We are going into that downturn with official rights In low twos two major central banks with negative area interest rates 14 trillion of balance sheet So basically the ability of the central banks to answer the way they did it in 2008 is very limited. The problem is the control for the bursts because they don’t have the meaningful tool to address the the consequence of a massive downtown So they will need to be very creative and that thing that this is the message we have this year I think they have no illusion about their ability to kick-start the economy I think they have no illusion about their ability to boost real inflation So these mandates are quite an illusion. So they are focusing on what they can do, which is Keeping their financial conditions as loose as possible and because a Lyari believes that markets are in a massive bubble The stakes are especially high and as a result central banks could pursue increasingly extreme Sim have policies and since these policies may work in the short-term Le re actually believes that a recession is not particularly likely right now So what’s an investor to do well for Olli re it’s pretty simple. I never been as bullish as In the past on God did I was breached when we met in March and God was 21300 It I still believe that the old yields will go further lower And and I still believe that because you can have so much cash injection plus a currency war between all the central bank’s trying to To put cash on their respective currencies. So you have a risk of debasement of the currencies. I think the gold is a God desire Has got to go to mix in front of it So Christophe thinks that central banks would destroy the value of their currencies allowing the price of gold to rise It’s a pretty compelling case and even though he and I might disagree about the economic outlook we do agree That gold is a good way to play the central banks next move, Greg Weldon is also in on the gold trade, but he’s looking at it more from a technical perspective and that was really interesting So the long-term picture is then here’s your correction. You had ABC Fibonacci and you’re rolling back to the upside Well, this is basically 1 2 3 4 5 typical Elliott wave Dynamic where wave 5 has just been ignited, you know, we talked about ignition and here we have liftoff in gold So how do we want to play that well, if you’re not long any retracement down into this? I mean you guys you get below 1300 you get like a 1295 print it’s a gift from the gold gods. You got to back the truck up in that case I don’t know that you’re gonna see that. I don’t think you’ll get much below 12 65 to 1260 if you get a dip, I mean because this is a longer-term breakdown breakout I mean so you know 13 45 would be kind of a last guest on the downside and then frankly I mean you get below 1290 then we’re wrong and then 1266 at risk, but they really don’t see that happening Not when I see stuff like this and here we get to the trade final. Yes right to the trade All right, the GDX gold mining ETF really like this year. I mean it is now breaking out. Look at this pattern I mean, it makes new lows. This law was so unconfirmed by any technical, you know, a momentum indicator You want to throw in you got the breakout you got the retest of the trendline that was violated I love this pattern 30 years in doing this I’m telling us one of the most reliable patterns when you get a Long-term trend breakout and it kind of seems like it’s running out of steam and it comes down He might even make a lower low, but it holds above the violated trendline That’s huge that retest on the backside particularly when it lays out right in the zone between the 50 and 61% Fibonacci retracements in the meantime you get back over the two year moving average Which is now accelerating to the upside and making a new high in line with price a very bullish dynamic and this is long-term Stuff man here look at the 52-week and the and the two year moving averages crossing over here as well Very bullish the GDX would be the trade here You know in the in terms of what trade we’re putting on here one of them GDX would be a would be an option and frankly you just plow right in here because the risk reward is still quite favorable so playing a slowing economy and increasingly accommodative Central Bank policies by buying gold could certainly be an option but I think there might also be a simpler way in this recession watch coverage We had a the great pleasure of hearing John Burbank who to me is one of the greatest living hedge fund managers He discussed his highest conviction trade with my good friend Alex Gurevich another well known hedge fund manager Burbank also thinks of the Federal cut rates much faster much further than the market currently expects He thinks they go to zero But he prefers to express that thesis by using Eurodollar futures Since those track the short-term interest rates on US dollars They’re highly influenced by what the Fed does what I like about betting on With euro dollars and betting on fed futures is that we’re we’re betting on where the actual policy rate is gonna settle It’s really it’s like betting on the earnings like nailing the earnings of an equity But but not having to worry about the multiple most specifically Burbank is talking about buying options on Eurodollar futures And he’s not shying away from this trade either I’m talking about like getting a you know, a TEDx return in a scenario. And so in a way I’m like bringing like a risk seeking mindset to this trade for a lot of people who don’t you know aren’t used to having this maybe optionality or Aren’t seeking this kind of risk. I now believe I now can understand why Druckenmiller could have made so much money, you know in these times right a risk seeking mentality in an incredibly liquid Leverageable, you know area I get it. I get that now someone else looking for massive return is Dan’s happy arrow Dan is known as one of the sharpest minds on gold and macro in general But recently he’s been increasingly interested in what some called digital gold Bitcoin is a lot of things So what it is is it’s an invention And I think it should be referred to as an invention rather than all the other things It’s a-you know what it really is is it’s a truth machine. It’s a way in a way to eradicate all fraud or You know lined by human beings. I mean the whole, you know bigger concept of certainty of confirmation of validity of security That’s what you’re buying a system that you know now is ten years old has a tremendous track record And I’m thinking well, what’s that worth what I all Stan his own question here’s how he responded starting first with the market cap of Bitcoin and then discussing other people’s Predictions of the price per coin it’s now two hundred billion dollars a market cap, but that’s kind of small you Know it’s kind of small If you not even if you if you just see what’s been built, like, you know It would cost more than two hundred billion dollars to build that right, so you can start to think that you know within ten years the Winklevoss a Million dollars or Draper’s five million two hundred fifty thousand in the next few years. It’s not unreasonable And so what is the bet the bet is by and to do nothing else? That’s it I’m also interested in Bitcoin because I think it could be a way to play this Doom loop thesis of mine from the bullish angle and pass that thesis by The way comes back to China China Has been the growth engine of the world and that engine appears to be sputtering Russell Clark has noticed that as well and in this conversation with Roger hearse He outlines of specific chain of events that basically ends in economic disaster and it’s playing out in front of our eyes The problem is is that when you combine those three things, I’ve just told you low tech worthy huge derivative notional Z’ that don’t match up to that liquidy and then the Delta and markets been by trend followers When you combine all these different pictures together? What that suggests to me? Together with issues in China he saying you get a gap in the market base, so one day we all got home on Friday and Over the weekend the Chinese go Hey, that’s it may as well, we’re gonna rip the band-aid off and we come in and the remin be is it nine right and Equities then open up down fifteen on a gap Right and then of course involve something goes Down at for you, something like that The problem then is that this huge amount of derivatives that somebody get knocked in and they’re looking for the query and one thing I’ve also seen is that the The high-frequency traders that provide most of the query they pull their bids on balls bikes Because they’re not programmed to think They’re just programmed to react to market prices. So when they see vulgar low bids get tighter when vole goes high they pull a bit and this has been the Problem the problem of that view is that well, that means as you go one way to pull all the CTA’s long and Then you go back the other way in it gap So to put you on the spot sort of ran it off your your view and part of your view. Is that you? They’re an indie will move through seven. They will do something and this will trigger a whole series of chain reactions Is that gonna happen before the end of this year when you look at? The sort of dichotomy between like I said macro indicators and we’ll head quiz Ettore The macro indicators are saying yeah. Yeah get position four right now Josh wolf one of the smartest most successful folks in the venture capital space is looking at liquidity as well He believes that we may all learn exactly at the wrong time. Just how little liquidity there really is You have the illusion of liquidity because you you have daily trading and and and ETFs and you know They’re marked on a daily basis But the underlyings suddenly might be a liquid and so I think that there’s a real risk of permanent impairment Which is the true measure of risk of principal so if that happens and retirees start saying wait a second You know what? Let me go to cash Let me get out of this bond funds that I thought was safe. You know that creates problem Well, they also might need to sell out of equity funds but to me It’s not enough just to look at the macro You need to get your hands dirty and really investigate some of the specific sectors that matter the most That’s why I spoke to five sector experts so I could see how they’re making sense of the economy through their own specializations I traveled around the world via Skype and found about metals chemicals shipping autos and real estate so for sure that the bigger story is trade and trade tariffs and that was a unexpected development that many Particularly industrial customers hadn’t come to appreciate I think the seriousness with which the Trump administration was approaching that topic they had been used to the breakdown of barriers not a position of barriers and when the industrial world all of a sudden had a content within particular tariffs in China and having to deal with tariffs on Chinese fabrication for products and Chinese exported products That was an unexpected change in supply chains And I think people weren’t prepared Or had forecasted to deal with it all so that that to me has been the biggest story When I talk to business customers and people that move goods around the world for various final fabrication into media processing a different place that to them was a major reward orienting of the supply chain They become used to where China is a major importer and exporter of a number of commodity products and Commedia products from electronics to steel products to auto parts and other things that touch China is in numerous amounts of goods that all of a sudden became quickly on economic then that wasn’t forecast It’s I think we’re do I think we’re due for a period where we do see? business activity contract and we do see a bit of a pullback and I think we’re Overdue for that a number of a number of industrial leaders, you know leaders CEOs of the companies involved in our industry They recognize that what we’ve seen since December 2017 is a definite slowdown in the chemicals industry and this matters because we are the third largest industry in the world after energy and agriculture and We go into all parts in the economy, and we’re in that position in the value chain Where we we do get six to nine months lead time on what’s happening elsewhere So yeah, just that sort of start to focus down a bit You know, one of the wake-up calls for me was October last year where there’s a big industry conference in Europe And I walked into my first meeting with some said senior people from a major company Said how’s business my always my first question. Oh, we were down 40% the second half of September Wow I said, oh, you know and it went through three days We had twenty odd meetings with with companies you know judge not just European companies but global companies and one CEO joked halfway through I said, oh No, actually we’re doing better than everyone else. He said we’re only down 20% No, no, I don’t want to sort of say. Oh, yeah, this is a collapse what I’m saying? Is that marked the moment at which we transitioned from a stable slightly rising? picture towards a real significant downturn and so we come back we’ve now got the may data out from our friends at the American Chemistry Council and Normally May would show quite a sizable Improvement because it’s right in the middle of the second quarter so car sales should be going well construction should be going well all of these things and the weather has been good was good in May, but in fact They only bounced by 0.2 said, you know that’s less than half of what we normally get in May. So what we’re seeing is a deteriorating picture in the industry in almost all of the of the major markets and The bounces this is something I look at a bit The bounces are weaker than they used to be and they’re getting weaker all the time So the outlook for the second half of the year isn’t terribly good I don’t think we’re virtually on the point of saying we are either in a recession or About to enter a global recession. So starting at the global level Total global vehicle sales are down about 6.4 percent This is kind of morph into like a every market Phenomenon and it’s very concerning. It’s it’s starting to have ripple effects on not just the the auto makers but the suppliers and I think the phrase you use often is there’s quite a bit of knock-on effects that are yet to be seen But some are starting to filter through the best way to describe it is we have not begun the healing process So so you’re saying your short-term indicators? Down you’ll meet medium-term indicators are indicating an acceleration of weakness And your long-term indicator is not showing any pick up Into the extended future yet. Is that right? That’s correct so this is quite a large bust coming in the hell in the car market if You’ll if we’re not seeing it doesn’t looks more than a short-term cycle here. It’s not an inventory cycle We’ve actually got a bigger slump Absolutely, and that’s it That’s a great great point because we can go through ups and downs where inventories get out of hand Production gets cut all of a sudden day. Supply looks good, you know in three or four months later. We’re back in the same boat That’s just how it happens as as you as the market continues to weaken over time because of headwinds like time to equity global macro, I’m seeing similar phase you are the World trade seems to be slowing on the demand side. We’re gonna have to see what happens You know, the trade war obviously has local drivers and shipping is in this model thing people Love to look at the Baltic Freight index, but there’s many different Categories of shipping sub sectors, so mainly it’s three of the containers. Yeah demand For Chinese containers going into Los Angeles is slowing but when you look at other things like Baltic Freight or In a crude oil anytime you have trade wars and trade disruption It means that the number of vessels on the water have to go further in the number of ton miles Increases take the situation with Venezuela right now. It used to be that America imported a lot of Venezuelan crude That’s now all becomes circuitous where Venezuelan crude goes somewhere else and then eventually usually comes to America and Venezuela Which is importing refined product from America is not directly or importing it. It’s going somewhere else first So what that’s doing is its increasing the shipping routes and it’s increasing the number of ton miles. That’s actually bullying Prices even though the global economy and world trade and especially indexes you look at my cash shipping address are showing serious Declines it hasn’t yet hit shipping And if anything I think shipping is doing quite well right now for example There are some serious red flags out there that if I could just briefly run through them I think they’re important for example, uh Home sales have been weakening in even the hottest major metros for a year or so Some of them most of them are down double digits now slowly home sales by itself isn’t necessarily a problem, but Combined with that you have the rising inventory of homes for sale two months ago it was in the house market in the country Silicon Valley, San Jose was Double the inventory of a year ago and it’s still up substantially the other hottest markets Seattle Denver, LA are all showing a pretty substantial rises in Inventories you put those two together and that it suggests to me that we’re going to see and we have been seeing increases in Reductions at home prices finally at the end of these two weeks of programming I talked to one of the most respected people in the entire investment research landscape Carol Sokolov when I sat down with Carol in upstate New York, he kept bringing in historical examples to make sense of the present situation It’s an interesting approach and one that has really yield him incredible results throughout his career Here’s how he responded when I asked in the recession question well The great question of our time is whether this is a mid cycle correction like in 95 or 98 With the Fed easing into a recovery, but whether it’s recession like 1989 2001 or 2007 And I have a very hard time seeing if this is 95, but I can go into why I don’t think it is I’m totally agnostic. I’ll let the market decide for me, but all the evidence on economic data and above all confidence and trust Because this is really a confidence and trust issue. How are you gonna put confidence and trust back into the picture? You’ve done a savage cutting on that I cannot believe it’s possible for trust to be restored in the next year and a half just impossible So how do you rebuild trust and it takes years decades? It’s extremely significant So your sense is that we may be the cyclical turning point But we’re actually honest this is a secular turning point as well in many respects. It could be if the u.s. Goes for protectionism and The rest of the world were to follow it definitely would be a secular turning point if the u.s Goes for protectionism and the rest of the world doesn’t follow He won’t be quite as bad but then you have the whole cycle of wealth distribution coming and how’s that gonna play out and if Trump doesn’t get reelected what then happens to all of the deregulation and tax code all the things he did to get the stock market up will Buybacks be how Lord I mean there’s so many things that could happen There’s a significant watershed event But the market isn’t paying any attention to but he’s a significant risk And then of course you have what I call a burden of the debt, which might be the reason why it’s so hard to get Growth and the last time we tried to do economic growth With more debt solving the problem of debt with more debt was in the 1920s. We know how that ended up So we got two hundred and fifty trillion and Counting of global debt which is more than three times global GDP, we’ve added debt at the rate of Depending on the country one and a half or two times more than nominal GDP in the last ten years so we’ve leveraged up this system and maybe the burden of debt is is too great to grow and Even though interest rates are low. A lot of the debt was used for unproductive purposes So it’s not generating any cash flow and then of course you have demographics which into recently the u.s was a hopeful spot and now is almost as bad as others with the population growing at the lowest rate in 80 years this last year, so if in fact It is beginning recession. It has immense implications Which is why glad you asked me the question and the first is? Will the recession be over by the election and the second is how will this impact? China u.s. Trade relations Is very very significant. So my hunch is that President Trump wants to run on tariffs and wants to run on Protectionism and taking on China and even if the economy were strong he would do that But if you kind of mean it’s a week or a recession He will double down you still he’s not gonna say I’m in favor of free trade and take all the towers everywhere It’s not gonna happen. That’s our song getting away Yeah, so that means protectionism and then the next question is what does the rest of the world do? did they put up barriers and That’s probably the most important question of all because that’s what happened in the 30s where everybody went Protectionist and beggar-thy-neighbor and of course you got some very large and export economies China South Korea, Japan Germany Very important to the global economy. I fear we’re on a slippery slope here and when you open up the protectionist mind shoot You can’t bring it back and there’s a guy named Jude Winooski. He’s since passed away, but he was one of the original supply siders along with art laughter and Robert Mundell and Bob Bartley editor of The Wall Street Journal and he gave me his book and wrote it to me Takuro a Disciple of the supply-side Revolution 1978 and he wrote the book because he wanted to disprove that it was free-market economics to cost the 29 crash and the Great Depression and he plotted how The smoot-hawley Tariff made its way through Congress in the fall of 29 and how the stock market reacted to each Support or against and finally when it became clear who’s gonna happen. That’s when the crash happened or happened for real So he makes a very good point but having seen that and knowing that history repeats I had this gnawing anxiety That we could be going down that same slippery slope here So kills head is in a similar place to mine, but what I find so fascinating Is he’s always trying to see sense in the larger secular turns that are happening in the background of these economic cycles We need to add into this my view that were entering the cycle of from wealth distribution from wealth accumulation to wealth distribution, right and It’s his oldest history. He’s been going on for thousands of thousands of years. Julius caesar cancelled death, for example And there was a debt Jubilee in the UK, I think in the 18th century and probably in the history of man There’s never been a period of greater wealth accumulation. I don’t see it as socialism per se It’s just a cycle and if we put that into the picture here this means that corporate profits are going to be hurt because Labor is going to take a greater. Share of the pie has been going down for 40 years So that would obviously impact the stock market. I happen to like gold a lot It’s been out of favor. It’s not understood at all people come to it Very late in the cycle and they ride it up and they think they understand it when they really don’t it’s very sophisticated in Tremont with much different values and trading parameters than people are experienced and I see it as the best barometer of deflation and Reflation. I’m not using the word inflation Reflation now at the end of the last commodity cycle or it should say that were in the 1970s gold and all the commodities went up because the dollar was very weakly making it that kind of a period so I think right now Gold is very attractive. Obviously, the mining shears are attractive I certainly think having the quiddity is very attractive people think that there’s so much liquidity in so much cash And I’ve seen so many times when there’s too much of something It becomes not enough now when you hear different people use completely different Frameworks to make similar points, you know, you might be onto something so there you heard from Carol about political upheaval about issues for equities about the troubles with liquidity and About the case for gold and I think he’s bang on so where does that leave us? Well, obviously, we’ll see how it all shakes out But there’s one point I don’t want you to miss which I made in my last video for this series You might reach different conclusions. And that’s fine again. I’ve always said there are no certainties in this world All I’m trying to do is corral all the information you could possibly need to make an informed opinion Because being ahead of the crowd Taking the opposite opinion to what you think the market’s thinking is where you make the real money you can jump on the trend later But first this the turning point that matters and I think the turning point or the returning point With the bond market yields falling is upon us again And I think the opportunity to make a lot of money is coming up rapidly So once a thank you for coming along with me on this journey if nothing else I hope it’s helped you understand why this recession question is so desperately important for real vision I’m rel pal You You

100 thoughts on “🔴 Recession Crisis Indicators Explored (w/ Raoul Pal)”

  1. We're bringing all of these Recession Watch conversations to YouTube later this week so get ready. This is an important moment for us all to explore together.

  2. What this presentation suggests is to buy gold, short the stock market and buy the vix index.This way all the people on the planet can live happily ever after in fear and unemployment since the goods will no more circulate around the planet and the great companies will produce less for the poor. On the other hand the wealth will be distributed (!!!!) instead of now that is concentrated, as some commentator in this video quoted. I am surprised for all the thumbs up hits for one more golden wrap doom video.

  3. Fantastic Raoul.
    Gold. Bitcoin and holding USD for short-mid term is the answer to this slowdown and possible recession. As we go into negative interest rates we'll really want Gold and bitcoin
    See my channel too I'm going to discuss this

  4. I have been preparing for recession two years after the last recession ended, which was very bad,but I do not have any debt !

  5. The economy has been almost the exact image of 2007 and 2008. People did not learn anything before as they are going into debt to pay for houses that are hugely overpriced. As soon as this recession hits we will see peoples home values drop considerably and be worth so much less than the amount of the mortgage they signed, They will dump the property and we will see this cycle all over again!

  6. Global stock market looks like it died today. There's been signs of this happening and now it's happening. Good work mate.
    If it keeps dropping there could be some big war coming with it?

  7. The recent Consumer Price index did not show any signs of a recession. Just a slightly weakened economy. Not to mention the bond market inverse yield curve being a sign as well.

  8. I very much appreciate the content on this channel! The discussions are for the most part well-reasoned and soberly presented, unlike so much of the financial “fear porn” out there. I do wonder, however, about the claim that Bitcoin is a “truth machine” or that it is digital gold (to the latter point, note that it has fallen 14% this week along with equities while gold and silver have risen).

  9. this is a whole bunch of sweetened pablum for yuppie corporate cubicle clowns, drivel … who listens to this anyhow? Econ profs? ecron what? "a cyclical window of vulnerability" I wonder how many vapid board room meetings that platitude finds its way into … laughable. You people are pathetic

  10. The federal reserve has assets of around 3+ trillion dollars being stripped of value by its co-op owners and you click bait me with "knowledge"? The overseas investor is the biggest punter when it comes to J. Powell's limp wrist approach! Imho. Huge overseas punt on "whatever it takes" QE? Germany has a budget surplus and yet the American taxpayer will get hit the hardest when European banks need bailed out? La dolce vita year after year . IBIZA.

  11. I believe a worldwide crash will happen late 2020 or early 2021 inline with the 21/30 agenda. EMF attack will mean bitcoin worthless .thanks

  12. "Bitcoin is a truth machine" LOL, where did you find this clown!

    BTC is built around the SHA 256 cryptographic hash functions designed by ….the NSA. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/SHA-256
    They even wrote a paper about back in 1996 (!), on how to develop something like a BTC, title „How to make a mint; the cryptography on anonymous electronic cash“. The NSA and anonymous, c’mon, stop kidding around…
    https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm

    BTC is a distraction from the real deal, which is gold. BTC is just 0's and 1's on a computer folks, and it can go poof anytime they want to….
    https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-12-10-evidence-points-to-bitcoin-being-an-nsa-psyop-roll-out-one-world-digital-currency.html

  13. "Window of venerablility" Hilarious. Apparently you can dream-up stuff better when you have a foreign accent. If you like listening to speculators make up new words, this is gold!

  14. First time listener…… thanks for the work! not sure if i understand it all, but i do see in our retail {womans fashion } business a drop of about 30% in the last year………here in Australia i find that the political class do more harm them good..in fact i feel as though we can plot the decline in consumer sentiment to a short lived and super conservative Prime Minister Mr. Tony Abbot , who ran the economy down so badly and so relentlessly during an election campaign that people were scared and shocked into not spending!!…….that fact that people believed him, surprises me more than anything else. People really are dumb….! again thanks for the content!!..

  15. Dan Lutz YouTube GCR RV the Big Lie 13-8-19 kim'smCease & desist order to Kingdom of Manna. speakproject: Speak up wit Tank & Lisa update 12/8/19

  16. The recession has already started and they are keeping the bubbles inflated with rate cuts and stock buy backs etc.. Easy money only prolonging the crash that is inevitable !!!!!!

  17. All this to end by saying how to make real money, so it all about money, right? then what? you die and leave them behind.

  18. Gold and silver is only real money everything else is debt stop all the lies cause people need the truth their lives might depend on it

  19. I get the importance of growth for the economy. But I also get, that we live on a limited planet. 100 years of 3% real economic growth would mean everything we have now times 19. Are we aiming for 2 billion people living in Japan – 800 million cars in Germany? 160 million residents in London Gazillions of smartphones 100 years from now? The numbers are really funny if you calculated them for 1000 years of 3 %growth. My background is biology , every growth pattern follows an S curve, slow start, exponential growth, then it is dying off.
    What I am missing in theese (really great) videos of Real Vision about the economy is the aspect of sustainability.

  20. Two more indications that a recession is coming:

    1. It is now the longest period between recessions ever in the USA. (June 2009 to Aug 2019 – 10 years 2 months)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

    2. An Inverted Yield Curve has predicted recessions since the 1950s. We are a hair's breadth away.
    Historical Data: https://pensionpartners.com/waiting-for-an-inverted-yield-curve-waiting-for-godot/
    Current Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

  21. I've been traveling along east coast this summer with my young daughter and we've been camping, can't afford hotels this year but the coast is packed. Restaurants are packed. We tried to eat at a popular steak house in wells Maine on the coast and it had 1 1/2 hour wait so we left. They said it's like every night of the week. I did notice demographics…mostly older baby boomer population. Beaches are packed, highways bumper to bumper. We travel midweek, so I know weekends are even more crowded. I heard campgrounds fill up on weekends, so maybe many others are traveling on the cheap too, but there are plenty of those expensive campers and mobile homes there. Those things are pricey. I'm tent camping, really roughing it. Only eating out once a day. Keeping the cooler full and eating cheap. Went to block island last week and it was packed. That place is super pricey. There's still money out there but in fewer hands. Mostly baby boomer demographics. I live in western MA and there are no good jobs here. I have several degrees including a masters in education and i waitress. I can't even get a job interview. This summer, I said screw it, we're going to the beach as much as possible cause I'm tired of being stressed and depressed. Making the mist of my time with my young daughter, cause in the end folks time is most precious and how you spend it and who you spend it with. Money comes and money goes, and I've done everything possible to get ahead and I can't and I give up.

  22. Does anyone really think we can continue on this spending path? The economy is and has been propped up for far too long. Everything is based on false numbers. EVERYTHING. I thoroughly understand what the stock pumpers are trying to do. Something will change and soon. Exactly when , nobody knows.

  23. I just know that we are headed into a recession. I call it the "sock indicator". Time spot: 7:24 These guys can't afford socks!

  24. Why a recession.. because low basic wages can’t keep up with high inflation or high cost of living .. the main inflations concerning basic living needs .. A recession is just an adjustment to balance things out .. Balance between high cost of living versus low basic wages.. Especially the USA as the main engine of the world .. a stable economy is mostly important.. a stability of the whole America and the World is mostly important than those corporate crooks dealing with the inhumanity china commies..so a recession is just a rebalance cycle for stability of the whole ..

  25. I got $320K in positive equity invested in my house, is there something I can do with it to take advantage of a possible recession?

  26. When the doom finally hits remember it will be nearly IMPOSSIBLE to find Gold or Silver offline or online when the stampede comes for it.

  27. I have been asking questions at the lowest levels, I will explain. A village in North Thailand has a few thousand people. Many earn very low incomes and usually eat bowls of noodles for lunch/dinner at a cost of 30 Baht. (70 pence or $1) roughly. This is 10% of most people's daily wage. On the 10/8/2019 the noodle shop owner said they were going to have to charge more as ingredients prices were rising and less and less customers were coming due to not having enough money to eat twice a day. Banks stopped lending and property/land sales are way down. Bottled gas sales for cooking are down and more charcoal is being produced from old wood as it is cheaper but when the old wood runs out? The knock on effects will be rapid and this situation started over 6 months ago.

  28. Couldn't unemployment be the cause of the other data visualizations? Maybe people just don't have jobs because of automation taking over a ton of their jobs. And this causes them to lack money. Also, there's the entrepreneur trend which should be mentioned. A lot of my high school friends have dropped out of college to pursue other careers than the traditional path.
    Heck, even I would need around 5 to 8 people already to help me do what I do but because automation exists I can create a system where I don't need anyone or only 1 system supervisor and it works seamlessly and also 1-2 people to help me where robots can't do the job like writing, design, etc.

  29. Recessions are good for the economy. If we didn’t have periods of recessions could you imagine paying $15 million for a 1 bedroom home or $750,000 for a car. The working people in a recession makes low wages, the same working people during an economic boom still make low wages. Recessions flush the junk out and put prices back in check.

  30. Raoul, Great breakdown of what might be coming and how it may unfold. Your Doom Loop and it's 3 phases appear to be well thought out, with each step being the logical outcome of the previous situation.
    The only thing I don't see happening is the last step of phase 3 – "Pension Funds Default".
    Not saying it couldn't occur, just can't see the gov't allowing the pension funds to actually default. A more likely scenario would be a "nationalization" of all pensions just before meltdown. The funny part is that while this is widely unpopular/unfathomable now. At the time of meltdown, these same people with openly advocate for it. Pensioners vote and for the political class that's all that matters.
    Lastly, it won't be a political event because states, from both sides of the aisle, have pensions in deep do-do (Illinois,Kentucky,New Jersey,Conn,Penn). I believe the states would love to offload these responsibilities and the blame that could come further down the road.
    It won't save us but it could kick the can further down the road.

  31. we are already in a recession and have been since 08, wallstreet may not have been feeling it but they never do, it's the people who suffer and they are suffering. Anyone with a pair of eyeballs and half a brain can walk through any city in the UK and see the recession made manifest in the form of beggars, homeless, drug addiction, boarded up retail outlets. The shopping experience in the the city where i live is little more than vape shops, mobile phone outlets, pound shops and a myriad of charity shops it's so boring i dont even like going into the centre anymore it has no character whatsoever. I've been watching failed business's reduced tourism and dreadful maintenance of our roads. THIS IS A RECESSION. I'm old enough to know what a shithole the UK has been turned into. It's a full on depression you guys should be talking about because my people cannot take anymore and that's what's coming. The only cure for this boom and bust horseshit is a full return to the gold standard which should never have been ended. i dont give a crap if wallstreet and the bond markets take the hit from a gold standard reboot, it's about time they felt some of the pain they give everyone else with their fraudulent drug crazed gambling with the lives of human beings. The gold standard is kryptonite to the Banksters and it's the only thing that will return common sense, morality and honesty and accountability to the economic system which has so much impact on society. the only trouble is whenever the leader of a country attempts to return the gold standard for the people , bullets start hitting them from 3 directions…..dont they John?

  32. Window of vulnerability, made worse with trade war. Bubble bursts between now and June 2020. Attention genius Trump. Attention Trump voters.

  33. Globalist propaganda! The economy is doing GREAT! They are trying to control the narrative to create a recession! They HATE Trump that bad that they are willing to crash the economy to get rid of him.

  34. You are wondering is there will be an improvement from the current masked economic depression to a recession? This does not sound right. Go see "Real Economy". Why is it so many take in the nonsense of the government claiming we've been having positive real GDP growth?

  35. LOL A totally manipulated economy. If you don't hold the Magic Wand, the only thing you can do is claim doom. Yawn.

  36. I do NOT identify with Trump in many ways, but on China I say the time has been severely surpassed to pay the Piper. The ruling Chinese Communist Party suppresses religious freedom, jails political opposition, oppresses minorities, and tyrannically enforces its rule. China has in the last couple of decades extended its military reach globally, with violence through weapons transfers, political and economic influence, and direct discreet interventions in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas and the Pacific all while the USA gave little to no pushback. It is time to confront this aggressive monster that is anathema to our basic ideological beliefs. We cannot allow this to continue, and must meet the challenge head on, with all our will and might. Or, surrender ourselves as a loyal servant. There is no middle ground.

  37. The demographics of the baby boomers, who are retiring in droves, not spending and pulling money out of 401ks will soon create a worldwide depression

  38. I was looking for the last guy you showed in this video and i couldnt the video with him. Do you even have it on this channel? He was talking about the book about the great depression, what is its name? I would like to read it, I didnt really catch the name

  39. The "really big, ugly phase" is when well-known corporations start to declare bankruptcy. RFL, Never mind that people are maxed out, can't get work, and are going hungry. Fact is, corporations will never go bankrupt even if they have years with no earnings because the FED will keep giving them funny money. Expect corporations to downsize and consolidate, firing people while the merge. Labor force participation will plummet, that's the real big, ugly phase.

  40. How much commission does the 'Gold Guru" stand to make if people take his "advice" and buy the GDX Gold? Real Vision Finance would be wise not to allow its guests to give financial advice. Did they even clear this with legal???

  41. the brokers and realtors tell me there are millions of people clomoring to flip housings by buying and jacking up prices and others to buy rental units with debt to live off savings and wages of poor people who can not afford to own their own. all hostile acts. .

  42. A background in finance is not needed to see that there’s a big recession on the horizon and there will be money to be made on it…….

  43. And that's how rich gets richer and poor with no money to invest gets poorer. This game won't last forever. This next recession combined with climate change, food scarcity and price inflation is a recipe for disaster.

  44. VERY INFORMATIVE. WELL IN INDIA RECESSION IS JUST KIND OF A STARTED. AUTO, STOCKS, TEXTILES, IT COMPANIES, STEEL, EXPORT COMPANIES ARE DOWN BY 40% AS OF TODAY…JOB LOSS IN MILLIONS. WORST ARE YET TO COME. LOOKS LIKE INDIA IS HEADING VENEZUELA WAY.

  45. Gold is for idiots. Look what happened to gold after the last recession? Anyone with a brain doesn't invest in gold. Hence so many investing. Lol

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