? Leading Indicators Pointing To Global Recession? | Recession Watch

Teddie good to see you good to see you You know I thought of you when I was thinking about this whole thing about I’m struggling with trying to decide Are we gonna go into a recession or not? My personal view is we probably are even in one right now But I know that you kind of look in the world in similar ways to me you look at business cycle You look correlations of different parts of the business cycle And I’ve been following you on Twitter and some of your stuff and I know you’ve been on real vision as well I just want to get your few What do you where do you think we are taught me through a bit of your top-down framework? We’ll dig in a bit and kick around some ideas exactly So a lot of what we do is focus on leading indicators so our leads typically range from 6 to 18 months and a lot of the stuff was deteriorating in October of last year, which is why we we were pretty optimistic on the bond trade as were you And that is continuing to deteriorate we don’t see really a bottom until December of this year potentially We have some uptick in some of our leading indicators But we’re not necessarily sure as we sort of talked about off-camera If that’s an uptick and gonna trend low or if that’s gonna be sustainable So one of the things we’re really watching is what happens in China with the China credit data, so that comes out this week Our sort of intuition is that the Chinese are in a lot of pain with the tariffs and also the domestic economy Some of the most recent data points have been pretty poor p.m. Eyes Etc. So we think that the Chinese are now going to really kick in some of these off-balance sheet local government financing vehicles that they’ve deleveraged that will lead to a growth in an M1, which could potentially lead to a bottom and economic growth December of this year, but that said the market that’s under the assumption that that happens. We haven’t seen that yet We’ll find out this week if we do get sort of a positive trend But that said the markets right now we’re pricing and I thought I’d put this together this morning. It’s absolutely amazing The markets are pricing in a global PMI. So if you take the global PMI Flat warrior on year but primarily flat and then you take the year-on-year rate of change of equius or a queer equities or US equities Global equities right now with prices held constant our pricing a global PMI at the end of this year of 53. So that’s marginally off the high of the global synchronized recovery at the end of here and We’re seeing nothing that that would that would create this environment This is a disconnect between the global PMI and the MSCI World Index or something. Exactly. So year-on-year Equities will be up in December Roughly called 16% and the gold PMI give it the relationship and I can put put together chart Should happen down 10 percent year-on-year. So down 10 percent year-on-year is significant in December. You know, what remember what happened December? That’s right. I know you looking at this year on year as well because the SNP For the same reason it’s not a lot people thinking here on your terms Yes, you you realize it has to be quite a lot lower exactly exactly So that’s just from a top-down macro perspective Looking at your own your rate of change of of equities and also the global PMI and we have a lead on where the global PMI is going and we think it’s lower. So equities are thinking this monster cyclical rebound by the end of the year We still see it lower and then if you even wait to get a sense of where that’s coming from I think it’s a lot of optimism around China. So beginning of the years designer China trade China trade deal. The Fed pivot is also a very big one And then Likely just you know fiscal stimulus and Europe and that’s what I’ve been looking at the Shanghai Asia It looks like they’re breaking down again and it if that’s the case then people gonna have to readjust their Chinese So it’s really interesting an analog that we’ve been tracking is the 2015 12 August. So I guess we’re a little past August Call it September to actually be more December q4 2015 Leading into sort of the self that we had in 2016. That’s that final leg lower the Global economic dad. There’s almost identical and the markets are also trading identically to it. So China PMI just started taking up. I call it September q4 of 2015 and as it was going higher that’s when equities sold off which is basically similar to what we’ve seen today, so an analog on or an overlay of emerging markets with Today’s prices I’d say I don’t like to put correlations on stuff but it’d probably be 80 to 90 percent and the next move is is a Good amount lower in emerging markets emerging markets but it would also be applicable to To equities in general a my view on that emerging marketing because I’m waiting for that And you know emerging markets may have been pausing for a while, but I look at the chart of the ADX Why the Asian currency? Yeah, exactly a monthly chart is this enormous head and shoulders tops like the biggest chop and I’ve ever seen in foreign exchange Which is also if I look at the Fed trade-weighted? Broad dollar index or the RMB they all look like oh my god something could happen here Yeah it’s the dollar I think so if I’m thinking about your Forward-looking indicators and I put similar things with mind some of them have stabilized But I’m having a feeling if something’s gonna upset the applecart going forwards. It could be the dollar. Mm-hmm And if the dollar starts to rise Then I think it could really change the situation I agree I agree so we have I mean similar view on the dollar into the end of the year, so You’ve done much more work on sort of the funding Issues globally, but the way I’ve always looked at the dollars growth differentials and right now the u.s Still has the higher differential or higher rate of growth versus the rest of the world and the rest of the world is going to continue to deteriorate in to the end of the year along with the US but probably the you know a large rate therefore either the dollar stays flat or goes higher which Really could also weigh on sort of emerging markets into the end of the year and Sort of moving on to the rate picture right now rates Huge move some technical stuff some weekly tomorrow daily tomorrow after looking very well so so I closed a whole bunch of my position same same so pretty much out of out of twos a couple weeks ago on sidelines waiting for some either digestion or move higher And then we’ll be really interesting if it breaks as an it breaks that the nine the weekly nine then the trend is just super Strong right now. We’re bouncing a little bit. So given the bounce I can also see that supporting the dollar Sort of to the Call over the next two three months Which is really gonna weigh on sort of the e/m stuff and then also a lot of the economic data just and I’m looking those demark counts and I’m thinking the same thing and I’m thinking I’m also looking at the Iput twos against twos in mm hmm and tens over the same period I mean that there fantastic fear means identical and You saw where the curve started steepening because tens are quite sharp correction to just went sideways for a little bit Right, right, and then they both absolutely plummeted, right? And so I’m I keep thinking that’s gonna be two three months and then really when you look at it usually after the first cut You know, cuz the first cut the market digestion for a week and then it’s like okay, what’s next right exactly gonna cut again Yeah, exactly, and then everyone piles back into the bond market So it’s a couple of interesting points on that as soon as unemployment claims take higher That’s typically when the Fed really starts This will be what they’ve done once before once or twice But they haven’t really cut into in in terms of haven’t cut without unemployment claims sort of rising so if we see an uptick in unemployment claims that could sort of be the catalyst to to Multiple cuts and we’re actually starting to see like if you like a challenger in great job cuts big up six year of year especially in the industrial sectors and then also paychecks has a as a small business Employment indicator that’s basically just fallen off the cliff. So there are indications You know, you know make sense because wages arising so, you know business getting more squeezed So they’re having the lay off employees sort of this port in the cycle. So we haven’t seen it in NFP numbers and you know Friday, we had a pretty big print But and everyone’s focusing on that we were talking off camera what you know, all the economy’s doing fine But that’s the most from its fifty basis points. They don’t need to raise right they Do it. So it is the federates so That’s the most lagging economic data series there is so you know You can’t focus on that if you want to if you want a trade You have to look out like twelve to twelve to fourteen months Interesting. Most people down the Sun back is soul. I know and I don’t assume why more people don’t focus on it I don’t know That’s just that’s just the nature of the business and a lot of people are just asset raisers and constantly, you know bullish Which works it’s like you can make money for ten years like that and then you don’t but But one interesting point on the twos and why I think twos are gonna come Laura we’ve created this Cliche twos low it yields lower. Neil’s log. Yeah So we’ve created this global policy index for global central banks So basically takes the GDP weighted year on your change of policy rates and then we’ve overlaid the the global PMI they to track each other perfectly and what we’ve seen recently is that Coal boom is really T rated but policy rates year-on-year are still significantly high and if you were able to break out Why it’s so higher where it’s coming from. It’s all the US. So the u.s Right now it needs the the rates your honor need to come down significantly. So if they’re flat that’s still it’s not enough to to match the global PMI, which is down which is indicating global rates should be down pretty significantly our Policy because I’ve looked it. So how I looked at the same thing is I took LIBOR two year on to year Looked at the race change and then put that against the area or whatever Whichever PMI you want to use and what it showed it gave me a perfect forward indicator about how tight monetary policy It was that point I realized oh my god, they’ve completely over tight Yes And people don’t realize and it’s just been following that cliff on its way down and that bot props sometime late Next year Jeff based on the same kind of idea that global policy, right? You’ve got to get move a long way exactly. Then you get this cohort of people saying how how’s that possible rates are so low But you know, there’s that much more debt in the system. So net net Yeah, when I look around has been I mean even call like that, right so corporate debt was up a hundred percent since 2009 so a couple thats up is the IMF think it’s roughly like seventy six percent of u.s GDP if we just to talk GDP if we’re talking global GDP it’s ninety six percent of global GDP is corporate debt now and and basically doubled in the last um, over doubles in the last ten years And it’s all been done. It’s ultra low rates. So any incremental rate of change was enormous for everybody and this is an interesting point that I’m trying to get my head around and it’s and it’s still a little ways away Yeah, if our leading indicators do tick up say China really starts cranking on the credit leading and educators turn higher There’s gonna be the drag on the economic data in especially in the US so the u.s. Won’t bottom until We think middle of next year. Just call it q2 next year We think the rest of the world potentially could bottom in December this year so if the data deteriorates Significantly and we do see that the le is tick higher. Is there going to be some? But I don’t want to say boogeyman and club boogeyman for now but when ty goes out and we’ve had ten years of of these rates is there gonna be something that no one’s really paying attention to that manifests that then basically nullifies the deleting indicators for the time being Yeah and then I mean luckily the way I’ve sort of think about this is will see it in the markets like huge respect for the markets and look at basically everything globally So hopefully we’ll be able to pick something up there but that’s one of the worries I have that if the duster on higher and we get towards December when also liquidity conditions we have liquidity indicator that measures Dollars available to flow into risk assets. That’s also turning higher then when we get to that point, it would probably if It would for being long emerging markets and edie sort of liking into them. But if we have some some issue Into this year then so talking those issues. What are the ones that you fear? What are the ones that are wrong? You all kind of raised some reason Europe just keeps I mean you’ve spoken about Europe, but Europe keeps coming back to me to have interest rates where they’re at and Constantly going lower the lifeblood of the system. The banks are you know, they need they need higher rates to breathe and that’s the reason this is huge point on why people right now are saying you drop’s cheap Japan’s cheap if you look at the Bank, the banking sectors and you adjust for the rates the roughly So, for example, I think US banks right now traded like thirteen point one times European banks trade nine eight nine times and Japanese banks traded I think around seven times. The reason those there’s the difference between the Three regions is because the interest rates Because the interest rates have constantly gone lower which kills the banks so it brings down the valuation So, you know banks look cheap. Well, it’s because interest rates are killing the whole system. I don’t know what it would be but for some reason to Europe keeps popping up or China’s not able to That m1 and China. This cycle has been so important. We did some work Before a piece we just put out figuring out sort of who’s been the driver of global GDP growth and China since the beginning the cycle has driven 47% of total GDP growth. So it’s basically It’s basically the cycle and that’s why we spend a ton amount of time on China figuring out what’s going on there so if they’re not able to to sort of crank therein, why do they want to because because what I’m observing is oK You’ve got a hostile US you’ve got a weak world China’s, obviously, I think would take a decision. Why do we need to bail out the rest of the world? So what they should do? No doesn’t mean they will do and what but and what they have been doing Is just kind of supporting their own system right in a way that doesn’t inject massive amounts of capital To perpetuate the mess that they’ve already got right? I I that means there’s no marginal increase in Consumption of iron ore or cars or all the usual stuff that you should drive actually and so I think people miss that Up to this. So everyone thought the global economy green shoots was bothering me in the first quarter and what they missed It’s that point that a lot of the stimulus measures that they were taking were domestic based Exactly because January was all about these Chinese stimulus and it was and year-on-year It was like total tzimmes was down. The reason it was down year on year is because they were Delivering the local government financing vehicles or local governments and then off-balance-sheet debt and these two things were the primarily lifeblood for the rest of the emerging markets that that traded with China that Correlation between these two and and how like, you know South Korean exporters do for example, it’s very positive. So they it’s been domestic in China and I’m thinking it might start to be more global in the sense that recently, they relaxed some of the the curbs on the local government financing stuff and I’m getting some indication or hearing some stuff from some third parties in China that the Off-balance sheet stuff is really starting to crank up again We’ll see if it comes to the numbers but if that if those two two buckets of the four Chinese buckets don’t rise then you’re probably gonna have a tough time for the rest of the world to grow which would be very supportive of the dollar and Okay talked about the US. What are you seeing in the u.s. Because a lot of people are seeing Europe Seeing China, they’re kind of nervous about places like Australia and they understand the risks of the UK when I talk about the u.s Everyone goes it’s fine. Now we talk about unemployment. But what are you seeing? more specifically in the US so the one of the best of leads and you so Taking a step back fed cut our fed past interest rates from hiking rates in December Huge rally 27% from the low. So if you look back historically since the 1980s 1980 1985 1989 to 2000 1995 2000 2006 every time regardless of the economic data really Frehley inequities Which is what we just saw because for some reason everyone thinks that the Fed positing is gonna influence the data It’s gonna be great if that’s got our back. The issue is a Fed hike pause or cut doesn’t affect the economic data until 18 months after the after the move So if they paused in December Then we still have another roughly 11 months before it starts affecting and flexing higher on the economic data year-on-year So if you take 2-year rats, assuming a normal Recession right there. Just that common golf jack will slow down exactly mild recession just specifically the u.s Not taking into consideration global factors and China driving the whole cycle sort of in my view outside of that in the US where the economic data is gonna continue to tear it until roughly June of Next year or dude call it q3 q4 Of next year, so that leads the is M if you if you take to your rates advert it Move it forward 18 months at leas is fi, you know 18 months So we still have some time for the is M to continue to deteriorate. All right Now equities are on a totally different page cuz that’s cutting and you know it’s gonna flex higher on your rates of change is still in line with With like I use the airy or we can use the is M. So it’s not it’s not out of whack But I think the surprise comes I think it’s the year-on-year equities thing in October November December when they started falling Because even for that year-on-year rate strange to be 0 which where they roughly should be now There’s quite a long way for equities to fall Yes, and if that equity goes more negative and everything else as we’re expecting it to then equities have a long way to fall Yeah, but they seem to be in line with a business cycle, right? They didn’t look out of whack their goodies Yeah in the US. Um, I think It’s interesting. So Getting in certain the internals of the market. So from the prior high in October This year, let’s start with this year this year equities are up like nineteen percent twenty seven percent from the low Two or three percent above the prior October 2018 high the composition of the gains from that October hide to today Utilities are up 13 percent REITs are up 9 percent staples are up 7% financials materials industrials are all down to call it 2 to 5 percent Yeah, small cap industrials but small cap materials are down 19 20 percent from their high small caps overall are down about 11% from the high banks and industrials are down like 13 percent from the high so the sector is enough sort of underneath this underneath the surface are saying And if you look at you know the ratio to do some ratio work of of all these things versus the S&P Yeah, they’re all actually going through the suggests. Yeah, maybe we always do the same stuff Yeah, don’t even talk to each other exactly very odd but so The markets right now are saying that we’re slowing but the S&P is at all-time high primarily because the Constituents have been a very defensive stuff and raised up and go and lower So that’s been really driving people into into equities What I’m trying to figure out is there’s a lot of conflicting information on positioning side of things Bammel saying, you know the huge reduction over wait equities if you look at sort of futures positioning across all the different dow Nasdaq russell S&P. It’s it’s the same high the prior highs short interest on SP. 1,500 stocks is the lowest level It’s been the cycle. So there’s a lot of conflicting positioning interests Don’t like equity. I just don’t like to trade equities right now Yeah homes have been the easy trade. Lots of it very easy because bonds actually follow the business cycle equities They actually follow what’s going exactly Exactly. So I Mean we talked a little bit before about what equities are pricing on the global PMI a lot of our leading indicators also work on I Started off on the equity side of things as an analyst. So we do a lot of Valuation work individual sectors, so and also four broad line ESPYs and stuff. So SMP for example based on our indicators should be down You’re on year EPS to like 148 dollars in earnings power which is roughly eight to ten percent down. You’re on year the street has it up Call it six percent so there’s a pretty big Delta between those if you apply our numbers on the SP right now it trades it roughly nineteen point five times, which is Marginally below the highest level you’ve traded the cycle so I’m looking out over the next six to twelve months and I’m seeing Highest multiply your paying the highest multiple for like for no good for negative growth like that It makes no sense them since in no world even to like a value investor. That makes no no no sense So so for equities to trade sort of in line with the five-year average they needed they need to move off significantly lower and one of the things that I think could be and then also from a timing perspective breath, you probably looked at all this to since we’re already on this train the breadth of the industrial sectors fifty hundred and 200-day all diverging from price or prices higher breath is lower across all three of those some of the proprietary momentum stuff that seeks to Follow CTAs on that we’ve built also way lower prices are higher Sector spreads if you look at sector spreads of industrials financials materials and overlay with the sector ETF Also all the verging lower both spreads higher meaning that equity should be lower but equities are actually higher And then just basic classic technical analysis RSI divergence this across all of these guys. So technically we’re also setting up here for Potentially the the week summer move and what part the US economy worries you because you’re seeing it in the market I green Beneath the surface, you know Stan Druckenmiller always looks at exactly the same things, you know The answer is usually they’re in the stock market, right? Where are you seeing an economic data that’s concerning you so I’m saying So the Rita SAR one of the things we’ve put together is real retail sales so we basically we look at each one of the sub components to figure out like the volumes versus because a lot of You could figure out Total aggregate growth or you can figure out volume growth and aggregate growth would be influenced by prices going higher and we know the prices Of roughly trend higher for some of these things. So if you look at volumes retail sales volumes have really really deteriorated. Yeah, so Retail sales volumes having me the consumers point the consumer flying thing has been I did a lot of work on it previously it’s Really been funded by the easy money gravy train. So like they’ve been car breaks now all time crazy Well, the credit card rates are earned saying and a lot of people have been doing these zero balance transfers So, you know You can move your full balance from from one credit card provided the other four no interest for like two years or something like that I missed that and I didn’t realize that well This isn’t 2016. The Trump came had this huge stimulus with the track tax cuts But there’s been so much call it band-aids that could be placed over on the consumer. That’s really struggling overall I mean, you know, like half half the people could crazy amount of people I don’t forgot the exact stat don’t $400 to pay for like a minute or something like that It’s the consumer right now. I don’t think is is is Incredibly strong a lot of our leading indicators also have retail sales following pretty materially into the end of the year And then also if you look on the industrial side, we have an indicator industrial production breath which takes all 23 of the sub components of industrial production It measures how many are growing versus the last year that leads by about three months and that’s really deteriorated so industrial Production growth should come down pretty significant So Kay the argument that all here now is hearing that but its services you’re looking at manufacture manufacturing doesn’t matter anymore It’s all about services Yeah, that’s yeah, so that is that is the view out there those of you out there but what’s interesting is the manufacturing leads the services for that’s what I’ve always said for a good amount of time because now if I’m looking at Restaurant services and a bunch of other stuff. They’re all in freefall as well the thing that about yeah exactly the thing about the services what it does is it dampens the The lows and the highs yeah, so because there’s no inventory With a lot of the service stuff You don’t have the inventory the basis huge Raises human capsule exactly huge sell through so it sort of dampens it and then it but it lags So what’s going on on on the industrial or the business cycle? So, I mean it might be a it might be a like a decent point but at the same time I could show you services EPS and we’re I think they’re gonna be based on our historical leads and they’re gonna be a Lot lower the service sectors getting to the point the meat on the buttons. Do you think the u.s. Goes into recession? It’s a tough call given the information we have if it does happen it would happen from now to June next year Historically when that does happen You’re you get a pretty good buying point equities. So that sort of lines up with some of our leading indicators Middle of next year end of next year for the u.s. Emerging markets This year call it first half of our into the queue for this year first half of 2020 It’s tough to say right now definitively and I don’t want to say we’re definitely go into the recession You never want us to put the deficit on it, but I think it probably look we deal in probabilities. Nobody Probabilities given the indicator there’s never been a higher probability this cycle for the u.s To go into recession because one we’ve had a tightening cycle 2015-16 we never had a tightening cycle in the US. It was just a trying to drag now We have a tightening cycle and a china drag that’s really pulling down the data and we have not seen it pick I understand trade time, and now you have the trade coming in and really I don’t want to use a lot I’m gonna you thank you wash preferred certain window a vulnerability in the trade is is is in the winter of vulnerability that causes the Causes the data to go on the shock. I think if that Window vulnerability quickly if we’re seeing the stable the indicators stabilize It’s one of the things that stops some stabilizing right and it’s in this time period Nana I think the same thing the other thing I’m looking at is potentially raising the debt ceiling and the Treasury I’m not sure you’re aware of this is obviously the Treasury’s been funding the government and essentially they’re gonna have to issue two hundred fifty billion of Bonds in a very short period of time which in itself is a liquidity drain You know an annualized liquidity drain of almost a trillion dollars. And so there’s that’s coming probably in August If they’re going to do it, it’s gonna happen or August. So you suddenly get a massive tightening at the same time It’s just a really interesting time. So we’ll wait and see and I’m like you I’m seeing the same thing Everything looks mild, not awfully things like semies and shipping and Freight looked. Yeah, but that’s the world trade story My fear is that I guess if the dollar breaks then everything if the dollar breaks higher than everything changes Yeah, the dollar breaks lower actually. It’s a dampening effect on all of this and we have to worry less so Gun to your head now. What are the trades over the next? Three or four months. Um were you saying about bonds is like you don’t nam be awaiting – itching to get back into twos Yeah, I’m probably the leg into it from call to 2:00 to 10:00. If we if we get there did – 2 point 1? Tea spot one definitely would put it on pretty big size right now short financials versus long gold miners Gold bonus. Yeah, so rates going lower negative, especially parallel shifts and long and short rates really does not help the banks And if you look if you think even further we’re not trading on this timeframe but if you look out further and the direction of global interest rates And we talked a little bit about before about the different valuation buckets across the US Europe and then Japan if US rates go To where they learn in Europe and Japan than the banks. So you’re gonna probably trade it as similar multiple So you have significant sort of downside pressure on the valuation Yeah, it makes total sense. So structurally, the banks are just gonna have a tough time You’re gonna get cyclical upturns and they’re going to be a good trade But right now the global PMI is is moving lower So the the relative performance of banks and also the bank Pease trade directly with the Tulsa That’s all the cycle Traded with the global PMI and the PMI gold PMI saying that bank should be much you’ve seen the chart the of the banks versus the S&P Basically looks like the European Bank sector 1 you know, it’s the relative chart that’s almost on that huge line same as the European banks are That we get any lower than here we’re breaking and then it’s gonna Massively underperform the SMP it already has done but it looks like it’s kind of a almost a catastrophic event exactly And then the last sort of area that’s pretty interesting It would be semiconductors on the short side Their pricing and also global PMI of 53 and or leading indicators do not have that at all We have earnings down the street has earnings down like 5% and we could have 20 to 30% down on Semiconductors so semies hugely cyclical what’s going on economy? Because I’ve you’ve been using semi sales through sales has a forward-looking indicator and they’re super weak Yet semi prices as a sector and not reflective of that yet. Mmm. It’s very interesting to see the We have we sort of have the hard data with the global PMI. So the globe you my in EPS of really any sector Primarily more broad stuff the more granular you get the less Sickle Khalid you have to it but broad stuff right now. So the global team I just printed forty-nine point four says lowest since October 2012 New orders at the worst level in seven years the bottom in 2016 We’re a queasy PS were down seven ten percent. The global PMI bottom is forty nine point nine. We’re now below We’re now at forty nine point four were below the lowest level in 2016 and earnings are expected to be up six percent If they were down seven to ten percent when the global PMI was higher than it is today How are they not gonna be down your view? So you sound like you’re more excited about the short side of the equity market than you love about the long side of the bond market yes, and because of Its brave for six five six weeks Arif I’d of shortened their equity mark three four months ago. No, it was totally totally different We’re barely we’re short semiconductors which were done and in May and shorts on the emerging market stuff which worked out but right now given the downside exhaustion’s that we talked about on the rates and sort of waiting for it to move higher Equities are not at all rates are are factoring in pricing and more of the situation that we’re talking about equities are just on another planet, so In and also the trade location of equities right now, if you look at industrials financials down we’re trending Trendline and they were basically this the fourth peak now and we’re brushing up against it So for trade location perspective on financials industrial source We want to trade materials that the risk/reward is phenomenal and if it breaks above, you know You cut half the position and sort of just watch and you don’t lose too much risk and then but if it breaks you can add to it and then you have a level above you where your Risk is final question and gold miners. I’m long those as well. Is that gonna be a one-way bet for a while? You know, it’s had a sharp moved. Does it pull back first? It’s yeah of a chance of entry for people who are not in it So it’s gonna be interested in all I think it also relates to the dollar so if the dollar the dollar Sort of has these moves that we’re looking for stays sort of strong and to the end of the year gold liners would be weighed on but ultimately gold gold and gold miners trade on real rates and if Real rates continue lower especially, you know globally like, you know, this stat that just came out I was like twelve and a half. There’s thirteen trillion of negative yielding debt. That’s a huge positive backdrop, especially if structurally if rates move lower for gold and gold miners So I Think they could actually double from here That’s that’s a year. Call it a year and a half trade Yeah Do you prefer it outright all relative because you had it as a relative better? Financially you could either way I think both pair the pair would would trade an absolute level you make money both ways With a pair with in also with each individual and then you know, I have a assuming that China’s m-16 higher, right? I have sort of a different view from you on the dollar at the end of the year same for the next call It’s five six months I think the dollar would then go within if China’s pick up in the rest of the world sort of bottoms and picks up the dollar would likely go lower which would Then add further support the gold miners. Okay final final question So if there’s one indicator on on your that people should put on their screens just to follow now Whether we are going to get worse or not China in one China and one is that year-on-year channel within one year on you? Okay. Perfect, Teddy. Thank you. I think we kind of We’re both in the same situation. We both think it’s weaker. We think there’s some big opportunities to come and trading this I’m also seeing these indicators pick up. Let’s wait and see I don’t think they hold but We don’t know. I know we said we’ll find out. Okay looks really a great to see a Fisher

67 thoughts on “? Leading Indicators Pointing To Global Recession? | Recession Watch”

  1. In another vid of your's you brought up General Electric and the BBB bond market. Guess who just got outed on fraud allegations even bigger then Enron. Share price tanked hard something to watch.

  2. Gold miners, Bought 2s this week. Also, because of the 50bps rate im thinking we'll get, I loaded up on the Japanese Yen!

  3. Get into the right mining stocks now. See the last 8 months they have taken new highs, go long for a 5-10 bagger. Hold for the next 12-24 months.

  4. There's $15 trillion of negative yielding global debt. It this interview a few weeks old? As for gold miners, there will be a pullback shortly along with gold and silver (it's Aug 15th). Look for a drop below the 5 wk MA to confirm it has begun and watch the technical indicators for a short-term bottom. Any sharp reduction/resolution of the US China trade war will cause a sharp drop in precious metals along with a big rise in long-term yields (and oil, bank stocks, etc). This is a potential quick trade for the bold.

  5. Damn look at the pace of content being released.. looks like Real Vision is voting with their content that this is a no kidding regime shift tipping point and that the relevance of this stuff is about to depreciate somewhat

  6. Just how bad is retail suffering? Payless Shoes, Sears/KMart, Penneys, Macys even mid-sized grocery chains, just how bad is all this getting? Personally I do not know anyone shops these places but an example Neman-Marcus(?), Marshalls or even Boston Market? This before the probable Chinese trade divorce?

  7. Is that a platinum daytona with a crazy bezel? yes. it's a store of value stop hay'in….. should you wear no socks with a suit? well when you're ballin doesn't matter does it……Actually it does. Very much so it does. my two satoshis.

  8. Why does interviewer so often interrupt no-sock guy before he finish his thought? Maybe it's a domination thing.

  9. I'm intelectually turned-on by Teddy Vallee, this guy is so dialed into every aspect and factor of the entire global market and conditions = WOW , give us more of Teddy Vallee

  10. What online class(es) can I take to better understand everything they are saying? I'm not able to follow much of it. Thanks! #nosox

  11. recession my ass, total depression!!!! put your helmets on people it.s coming!!the elites always cover with a war. pray that don't happen. but that's the pattern.

  12. What type of business people where no socks?  
    Are they both also dressed Commando also? Hmm.
    I did not understand much of their conversation.
    Wall Street finical people are completely """full of themselves."""

  13. It is very stupid to risk to loose money that you worked for, in order to maybe get money that you did not worked for. Every such investment is stupid… you are just feeding those mediators, bottleneck monopolists and blah-blah parasits. Invest only in your ass, your education, your buisiness, your memories… this is something that nobody can take it from you, everything else is stupud…

  14. You guys just aren't paying attention. How can we be entering yet another recession when we never exited the "Great Recession?" If you can't answer that one then maybe you need to stick with: "Everything is Awesome!"



    Hi guys, hear the words from a little brother of yours.

    It is no coincidence that I was led to view YouTube videos
    on ranches (now over a hundred videos), in one hand, and castles/ mansions/
    chateaus/ villas/ estates on the other hand, now hundreds of videos.

    In the past, I studied the videos on Permaculture and
    no-till, organic farming system now popularized by huge US farmers like Gabe

    Basing on these hundreds of video docs, here is my
    observation, conclusion, & unsolicited correction that may help lighten up the
    sufferings that are befalling America:

    1. The ranch system which excludes fruit trees, makes itself
    a mighty beautiful  landscape beholden by
    the eye, lifts up the spirit, but as far as productivity is concerned, which
    should have been understood by Americans because of your scientific mind,
    (thus, I am wondering why you hadn't!), 
    pure ranch or pure livestock raising is the least productive/
    profitable, to wit: On a per acre production, it will produce "20,000
    pounds of apples, 40,000 pounds of potatoes, 60,000 pounds of celery but only
    450 pounds of beef" (p. 81, Living in Balance,  by Joel & Michelle Levey, foreworded by
    Dalai Lama.

    2. So, as to serving the nation/ world, feeding the
    fellowman,  ranch ranks very less
    pleasing to the Father of all mankind whose majority of His children at present
    are starving.

    3. Permaculturists (those who add fruit trees to their livestock),
    an orchard with grazing livestock (cows, sheep, goats, etc.) and some
    vegetables and crops intercropped, produces 7 times more than a crop of
    potatoes, or celery, etc. and therefore, many more times productive than a pure
    ranch/ livestock grazing business.

    4. The fact that you, the ranchers all over the USA, by the
    hundreds are selling your ranches, is an absolute proof that God did not mean a
    place, any place, any farm, to be exclusively animals only, without plants,
    trees, serving as member of the Ecosystem's team.

    5. I read and heard it told that rolling hills and plains
    were in time past full of fruit trees and animals, on a symbiotic/ mutual
    service to provide food to their human brothers.

    6. This was mainly the time 
    from Adam  to Noah, when they were
    living according to the fruit and seed menu God prescribed in Genesis 1.

    7. What the ranchers use, have been using, as their
    position, principle and foundation is pride and blindness. The pride of being a
    cowboy. The blindness not to see that in the end, the ranch would not save the
    nation from its deadly summation of all crises end-time period!

    8. Pride of a cowboy will not sustain you. I see hundreds of
    ranches all over America being now put for sale… and it breaks my heart why
    on earth are you giving up such beautiful landscapes! I correct you my big
    brothers: add fruit trees because that is God's system. And share your overflow
    to the poor like what your founding fathers did to the world when the USA was
    still God-grateful.

    9. Your capitalism has been soured by greed as now your
    means to obtain riches, and lust as your end (purpose) of such riches. And your
    off-shore corporations, esp mining corporation are rendering many natives  homeless, landless, converting their fertile
    lands into desert as your bulldozers turn their mountains and hills  upside down, not to mention the poisoning of
    the waters and fishes.

    10. So you are making peoples of many nations homeless. Now
    look at you, your homeless are increasing too. They are losing their beautiful
    homes and mansions, by the hundreds, being foreclosed by the banks, or put on
    sale, very pitiful and painful to the heart to see those super-attractive
    mansions and villas all over California all across America, put on sale…
    while a larger number of your middle class are fast losing their nice homes and
    now they are converting their cars into homes, living and sleeping on the road

    Do you, o Manasseh, now see the wide consequences of your
    converting your once-love-motivated capitalism into a greed-and-lust-driven
    version of capitalism, with no respect to mother Earth and her children?

    Unlike Esau who is heart-hard, Jacob is like David, humbler
    and quick to repent, when shown his sins, but like David, it takes some
    difficulty to show your secret sin with Bathsheba and your maneuvering to kill
    her husband Uriah. But behold, the true all-seeing eye is that of the Father,
    not of Lucifer. The Father sees more than Lucifer. The Father sees what Lucifer
    cannot and does not see.

    Jacob as Israel means "ovecomer with God" and so
    may you Jacob, renamed Israel, overcome your carnal racist behavior, and attune
    to your higher self, as image and likeness of God our Father, as Israel or
    overcomer with God, and no longer the deceitful and treacherous Jacob.

    You have much to amend, Manasseh and all sons of

    You coerced your twin brother Esau, and forced him to sell
    his birthright. You also stole his first born blessings. This resulted to his
    being cut off or separated from the land, and fruits… and being swept to the
    steppe Ural mountains, to become pirates and fierce robbers of the caravans.

    When Esau saw the prosperity of the land, he tried to take
    back from you his portion, and because, you too were not willing to share, in
    the latter generations, Esau had to conduct wars against you, but he could not
    defeat you because of the health, strength and intelligence that the land and
    its plants, fruits and  crops gave to

    And so, Esau as the Khazars, Turks, etc., used 'immoral'
    means to survive an expanding population cut of from the fat of the land.

    And so he invented many things which are not really
    necessary for life: sorcery, a.k.a. manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, banking,
    schools, churches, other systems which are not the basic of life but which are
    messing life out!

    And so Esau is taking back what he lost.

    You, as the original Jacob, use deception twice to steal
    what belonged to Esau: firstborn blessing and birthright. Although God allowed
    you to do that because Esau was not giving importance and enough value to such
    privileges but was taking them for granted. So, God allowed you, who realized
    the value, to take them, howbeit in very unhonorable way.

    Esau must come to realize his fault and you, Jacob, must
    also come to repent of your deceitfulness and become the true overcomer with
    God (for that is the meaning of your new name Israel)… overcome the self's
    selfishness for the sake of all concerned.

    Now, Esau does not forget. 
    He is taking back what he lost to you… and in a very deceptive manner.
    He was deceived twice, and he must have learned the lesson. Now, instead of
    forgiving you, he is using not just justice (an eye for an eye), but revenge
    (more than eye for a lost eye)… he is using sorcery (chemicals) and money et
    al to take back what he lost and to destroy you in the process!

    You are losing your beautiful homes and your magnificent

    Unless you amend and divide the fat land to Esau and thus
    feed and secure his family, the deadly blade of racism will continue to
    supersede the love of twins.

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